WoodyTHFC
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Re: Golf: The Open Championship Firstly, I have mentioned on other parts of this forum before how I will not have direct contact with a certain individual on this forum ever again but I will have some indirect comments about some of the comments on here especially since that the individual concerned already highlighted my post when I didn’t even mention one name. Apparently an individual claims, ‘I don't discourage any selections’ and ‘I encourage all selections’ but previously had said, ‘Don't back Michael Campbell.’ Clearly all those statements are in complete agreement then. Also this individual claims the likes of Greg Norman had recent form before the 2008 Open. Well of course the BMW Asian Open (3 months before the Open) and a T14th placing is such great evidence of such recent form and completely ignores the fact it is the only tournament that Norman had shown anything in for ages and basically played or that the last time Norman had even competed in any Major was the last time Jack Nicklaus played. Chris Wood may have shown some form at a lower level but hadn’t done anything in any kind of proper European tour event. Ben Curtis only had one half decent event before the Open and that was a 13th in a small PGA Tour event that actually enabled him to qualify and up until that point prove a best in professional golf. What about this year’s US Open? Ricky Barnes at one point was a clear leader and ultimately had a share of second. He had been playing on the nationwide tour the year earlier and had a really impressive best of T47 on the PGA tour that season before his US Open effort. David Duval had no current form really at all (went into the event world no.882), he hadn’t even got past no.55 in an event on the PGA Tour and yet he suddenly discovered some old magic and shared second with Barnes. So it shows guys with hardly any if indeed any notable recent form can surprise and shock on occasions. For what it is worth I don’t fancy Michael Campbell myself and probably given his bad form would look to oppose him in 3 balls if anything despite the fact that he has some solid Open background (54 hole leader at St Andrews in 1995 and 6 Open cuts made on the trot) but I certainly wont be going round on a betting forum, where people put up selections, to say to someone else, ‘Don't back Michael Campbell,’ or for that matter any golfer or any selection anywhere. How are new people going to be encouraged to post on here if someone turns round and says not to back that individual? Its sets a bad precedent imo. Anyway if I’m allowed to carry on I have some first round 3 balls and for this championship I will include some outrights at times: C.Villegas to beat S.O’Hair and Y.Ikeda 23/20 tote 10 pts Essentially I feel this is a two horse race. Ikeda qualified through the Asian route and has won some big tournaments out there but has no experience of links golf and a test like the Open so has something to prove. O’Hair is a clear threat, a winner this year and in very good form in general albeit he hasn’t shown as much in his last threats. He also showed a bit in his first two Open’s but hasn’t done as much in his last two Open’s. However Villegas could go well this week. Whilst he hasn’t quite hit the heights of last year, he has been consistent enough and has shown the odd good week, a 3rd and a 5th and also has some solid Open history from last year when he was bang up there until a long wait halfway through round 3 seemed to hurt him badly. I just like the Colombian in this 3 ball. L.Donald to beat D.Clarke and A.Yano 6/5 sj 10 pts I spoke of Donald in my outright and I feel he can go well this week. Despite not as successful recent form compared to his early year form, it is still better than his two companions here. An inform Clarke is a clear threat but he has shown little for some time. Possibly hurt by sir nick’s rejection of him last year, he has a best of just 1 top 15 in his last 13 starts, 5 m/c in that period and not much when he made the cut. The Asian player has played a bit in various parts in the world and did at least make the cut at the US Open but he struggled last week in the Scottish Open where he m/c and also m/c on his only other Open appearance. Donald for me in this 3 ball. D.Howell to beat S.Cink and T.Jaidee 3/1 lad 10 pts A bigger price here but one who could surprise. Howell’s current form hardly inspires at all, he has only made 4 cuts all year. However he has always been someone who can prosper on links courses as shown last year when he came through into T7 and maybe a return to a links course could spur some kind of form. In short though I’m not as keen on his rivals. Cink a clear class act on his day but not in great form, only 1 top 10 in stroke play events since last years Open. Jaidee has been solid enough of late with 6 cuts made out of 7 but hasn’t really gone on from that or have any history in the Open and Howell could bounce back here especially if gets hot with the putter like he can on his day. R.Jacquelin to beat M.Goggin and K.Duke 11/8 sj 10 pts Jacquelin came with a great run last week at the Scottish Open to come T2 and claim the final qualifying spot so clearly he has some kind of form. Whilst he has been very erratic apart from that, he did have a T2 and a T5 so when he gets it right he can be a threat. Also he has played ok in the Open in the past, one T13 and but for a final round 79 last year he would have been much higher last year. Goggin hasn’t made the cut in his previous Open’s and after a decent start to the year hasn’t performed as well lately, 2 cuts made in 6. Duke had a shocking time in his last Open when +14 and missing the cut. He also has missed 10 cuts this year and hasn’t made a top 25 yet so clearly lacks current form which Jacquelin doesn’t and I think he can win this 3 ball. H.Mahan to beat J.Rose and A.Romero 5/4 skyb 10 pts I spoke of Mahan in my outrights and mentioned his very good current form, slight Open background and possibility of a decent week. Rose and Romero’s both have major Open pedigrees and both have come close to winning it in the past. However both are not playing as well as Mahan atm or for that matter playing that well full stop. Rose has had one second but no other top 15s and a host of m/c compared to Mahan’s none and Romero had one T3 earlier in the year but has missed cuts galore after that. Mahan for me in this 3 ball. D.Love III to beat S.Appleby and P.Lawrie 13/8 sj 10 pts Love III came through qualifying and he should enjoy the Open. His previous record is exceptional without winning, 5 top 10s and also 4 other top 21s. His game looked on the decline for a while but he has had a revival of sorts, a 3,6 and 1 late last year. Then a second to start of this year and some other steady efforts including a T5 at the Memorial. Appleby’s game in contrast hasn’t had a revival. For a long time a lock in seemingly in the top 50 in the world, he is now world no.83, just one top 10 and a spell a few weeks back of 4 m/c out of 5 and the week he made the cut he was 72. Lawrie is a former winner but his form since that seemingly one off win hardly inspires and that can be said of his current form as well with beside 1 top 10, not a single event inside the top 20. Love III has the best current form of this trio and I select him here. F.Jacobson to beat C.Hoffman and J.Kingston 7/4 lad 10 pts I spoke about Jacobson in my outright and mentioned that despite inconsistent form, his odd run at the Open including last year, hint of form in the odd event this year and the fact he was good enough to qualify suggest he could go ok. Hoffman is a danger. He has played quite well this year including one second and hasn’t missed a cut for a year however Jacobson’s extra experience of links golf could well help him there. As for Kingston he came second in the Scottish Open last year but since then hasn’t really kicked on, some good weeks and a few top 10s but not really threatening the winners sction. The swede for me here. T.Levet to beat K.Sutherland and R S Johnson 6/5 cor 10 pts Levet came so close to winning this in 2002 and also had a T5 two years later so clearly he enjoys links golf he could make the most of his late entry here. Also his form has been pretty good this year, 1 win and also 3 top 10s since then. Sutherland’s form is nowhere near as good with just one top 10 all year and whilst he played well on his Open debut in 2001, he struggled in his next year and this is his first return since. Johnson’s form wasn’t too bad early on in the year but since then it has been poor as 5 m/c in 9 and no finish better than 45 when he did get through. Levet for me in this one.
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Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Worcestershire to beat Yorkshire 8/11 bluesq 10 pts Worcestershire are a useful team in one day games and I fancy them here despite being comfortable odds on shots. They played well for most of the FP campaign before a terrible loss to Ireland saw them miss out and similarly played well in parts in the 20 20 ultimately to miss out in the group stage. However I much prefer them to Yorkshire here. Yorkshire’s one day cricket has been average this year, especially when considered there near and sometimes unfortunate misses last year. They have the likes of Rudolph, McGrath and Gale with the bat but always seem a batsman or two light and too reliant on the tail to get them out of trouble. Worcestershire have a slightly heavier batting line up, Solanki, Davies, Smith, Moore and Ali. Also their bowling attack looks strong especially if Ali plays and a few early wickets could see Yorkshire in trouble here and I fancy Worcester to come through this game.
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Re: Golf: The Open Championship A great event in prospect this week and good luck to everyone whoever they select. Certainly I wouldn’t say to anyone not to back any particular individual particular on a forum where selections are supposedly encouraged. Remember Greg Norman and also unknown amateur Wood being placed last year and even Curtis and Hamilton winning it as unknowns a few years ago. Anyway outrights for me now on both the championship itself and specialist markets. I will come back with some 3 balls for the first round before the start. 48 pts staked on outrights and a reluctant non pick of Stenson who I could easily see going very close again this week: H.Mahan 33/1 sj 5 pts e.w (1/4 odds 6 places) and top American w/Woods 8/1 cor 5 pts I advised Mahan at the US Open and I thought he was unlucky in that final round there. He played as good as golf tee to green as anyone and going to the 16th hole he was bang in contention only to see his approach smack the pin and bounce over 50 yards away, fail to get up and down and then 3 putt the next and ultimately just come up short. However he has bounced back so well and clearly is one of the form golfers around. He came fourth in his next event and then just failed to get to Tiger despite a last round 62 lto and eventually came second. He has been pretty solid stuff for a while as shown by no missed cut since the PGA last year and just lately has upped it a touch. Also he has some Open pedigree when he came through with a 65 in the last round two years back to get to sixth. Overall he is a man in form who I can see going really well this week. J.Furyk 33/1 pp 5 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top American w/Woods 8/1 cor 5 pts Furyk is always a golfer who seems to be bang in contention in majors and that includes the Open. He strangely missed 5 cuts in a row in it but each side of that he has 4 top 5s and also 2 other top 12 finishes so he is no stranger to links golf. His consistency this year has been very good without winning, 8 times he has been in the top 11 in events and that’s very solid. I also reiterate what I said on the masters thread about his putting. It seems to have improved a bit this year, certainly the stats on his putting are much better than in previous years and given that after a larger sample size as well that’s pretty good. I often think the better putters really propser at the Open and I could see another solid performance by Furyk this week. L.Donald 90/1 boy 3 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top European 40/1 spo 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) Donald is a golfer like a few Brits who has not fulfilled his real promise as he once suggested too. Indeed he is bordering on becoming disappointing but I don’t think he is one to completely give up on yet. He started the year well enough on comeback from a wrist injury suffered last year. He had a second and also 5 other top 14 finishes although most of them were in the early part of the year. Since then though his form hasn’t been as good in his most recent outings and also his Open record in general is poor. However he can still play links golf fine, he came very close to winning the dunhill links event a few years back and I also like the way his putting stats are this year. He features right near the top of PPR and indeed tops PPGIR. If he can translate that to the greens in Scotland he could be a danger still. F.Jacobson 250/1 pp 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 7 places) and top European 80/1 pp 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) A bit of a wild shot here but one with a bit of Open pedigree of sorts and whilst his form is extremely inconsistent, he has had a couple noteworthy events this year. The current world no.101 has had two top 5s and well as an 11 place so it is not as if his game has gone completely. Also he had to come through qualifying to get here and played a couple of good rounds to get here. In 2003 he was 6th in the Open and even last year he was better than the T19 suggests, he had 3 solid rounds that week just for a 79 on sat to really hit him and cost him automatic entry for this year. He is another one who can be very hot with the putter when in form and he could surprise.
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Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Middlesex to beat Warwickshire 11/8 sj 10 pts I’m backing my home county again. It hasn’t exactly proved successful so far this season but I’ still not sure they should be as big as they are here. Yes they were awful in the county at Leicester last game but they are so inconsistent it would just be them to go out and win this today. Their 20 20 campaign was awful but they did improve as it went on and they got some more players back. Also in the FP they actually came past Warwickshire in the group stage before losing with a depleted side against possible winners Hampshire. They don’t have Kartik today which is a blow but Udal and Malan can still provide decent spin options with Finn, Henderson and the under rated Murtagh providing seam options. The batting still has some top class players like Shah, Morgan and hopefully Compton, Malan and even the Aussie with an English mother Robson who is in the squad and looks a useful prospect. Warwickshire’s 12 doesnt include Bell and also has no Patel so its slightly weaker and whilst on form the Bears could be said to be marginal favs, I’m not sure its anything more than that.
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Re: BBOTD - Mon 13th July Wind 8.30 Respite 1 pt win I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
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Re: Wolverhampton 13th July (eve) 8.50 Dixey 5/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w A race here with a few out of form performers. Arguably Dixey has been one of them and she hasn’t progressed as she promised to at one stage. However looking at her relatives I believe on an a.w surface she could well propser yet and this is such a weaker race then many she has been in of late. Last year she won a class 2 and even at the start of this year she want that disgraced in a listed race. Even here effort at sand lto wasn’t too bad and in this weaker contest she could be a threat.
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Re: Windsor Mon eve 13th July 8.30 Respite 2/1 bet3 bog 10 pts I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
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Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3971pts Returned 3514.4pts P/L -456.6 Yield -11.49% Strike rate 30.96% (109/352) Wolv 8.50 Dixey 5/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w A race here with a few out of form performers. Arguably Dixey has been one of them and she hasn’t progressed as she promised to at one stage. However looking at her relatives I believe on an a.w surface she could well propser yet and this is such a weaker race then many she has been in of late. Last year she won a class 2 and even at the start of this year she want that disgraced in a listed race. Even here effort at sand lto wasn’t too bad and in this weaker contest she could be a threat. Winds 8.30 Respite 2/1 bet3 bog 10 pts I spoke quite positively about this one lto where I thought she went into a donc handicap very fairly treated off 72 and as it was she ran well without quite being good enough that day. Her earlier form looked smart enough including a second behind fantasia and an a/w win which was better than the winning margin indicates as she idled in front. She is actually better off with the horse she beat that day as well. The question mark I suppose is the extra trip. Lto over 7f she was pushed along a fair way out before plugging on without the best of runs and that run encourages trip wise and if she sees out the trip here, she should go close.
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Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 One outright in division 2: Kent 7/2 pp 10 pts Kent always seem to send out strong sides even with injuries and call ups and their depth sets them apart really. They have a good batting line up like Key, Denly, MVJ, Stevens and then guys who can accelerate like Kemp, Stevens again, Jones and Mahmood. They bat so deep and really always have the capability to post heavy totals. Their bowling is also strong, Parnell just for 2 games but the likes of McLaren, Khan, Cook, Joseph and spin from Treadwell and it just looks a very strong outfit. They somehow managed to miss out on promotion in this last year but will want to put that right this campaign and the only way they can do so is by winning this division and I can see them doing just that.
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Re: NatWest Pro40 2009 Two outrights in division 1: Somerset 11/2 bluesq 5 pts e.w (1/5 odds 3 places) Somerset are a team in brilliant form. In the FP campaign the won their group with ease before falling to a superb run chase by possible future champs Sussex in the q/f. In the 20 20 they came through their group and look a massive threat in that comp. Even in the county championship they have found some form and managed to win some games despite their almost renowned ‘poor’ bowling attack. Their strength is definitely their batting and really all the top 6 are match winners: Tresco, Langer, Hildreth, De Bruyn, Kieswetter and the ever so powerful Trego. They will always be a threat with a line up like that. As for the weaker bowler they still have Willoughby who at times can be economical and also a class depth bowler like Thomas which is a must in one day cricket. Overall their batting is always going to make them dangerous and combined with their good form, I can see them being there or thereabouts. Sussex 6/1 sj 5 pts e.w (1/5 odds 3 places) Another side in good form are Sussex. Maybe less so in county cricket but certainly in the one day stuff. They are in a Lords final in the FP and also came through the 20 20s and look to have a good chance to get to the last 4. Also they are the defending champs for this after what Murray Goodwin did at Trent Bridge last autumn. Indeed I think the side they have now is arguably stronger than the side they had last year. Primarily that is due to the classy and in form Joyce but even the development of players like Nash and even D.Smith who has such match winning capabilities and in 20 20 cricket this year, at all sorts of levels, has improved his form from last year seemingly. There are also class like Goodwin (providing they pick him) and workers like Yardy. Luke Wright should also play some games. The bowling a bit like Somerset is weaker but still has some strength with Arafat, Kirtley and a number part time spinners who can be difficult to get away. Overall Sussex are a solid side who could go well in this once again. Also one for this first game: Sussex to beat Essex 11/10 boy 10 pts I said a bit about Sussex in my outright post and I like them here at Chelmsford. Going to Chelmsford is never easy but perhaps not as hard as in past years and Sussex have already had success there this season. Essex are missing three big names in Cook, Bopara and Kanieria and none of them are really replaced. They still have some dangerous names like Amla, RTD, Foster and Napier but their line up is nowhere near as strong as it might be. Whereas Sussex look to have a strong side out on paper. A core of Joyce, Goodwin and Yardy and then hitters like Nash, Wright and Smith. The bowling has canny part time spinners as well as pace options from Kirtley and Arafat who also can bowl well at the depth, something Essex can struggle to do as well and overall I like the defending champs here.
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Curr 3.40 Sariska 1 pt win On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
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Re: Curragh 12/7/09 2.35 She’s Our Mark 9/2 spo 10 pts This mare has been in really good form for a while now and with conditions to suit she can go close today. She has shown she can act on various grounds but I generally feel she comes into her own when there is at least some cut and she will more than get that today. She demonstrated her solid form best this season when beating Chinese White on heavy and she ran a perfectly fine race at royal ascot to be fifth over a trip slightly inadequate for here. A furlong further today which is much more ideal and on this ground she has a clear chance. 3.05 Walk on Bye 3/1 boy bog 10 pts A tough two year old race to call given the unknowns of the ground for some of these but one I like is Walk on Bye for a yard who won this race two years back. As a filly she gets a few pounds from some of these and in these types of conditions that could well help. On OR she needs to step up from just one maiden win by a narrow margin but she was worth much more than the winning margin that day as she had a luckless trip and she looks well capable of further improvement on her next start. She is proven at this trip on this course and particularly as there could be some holes in Beethoven, notably ground and that the Chesham had a bit of a let down at hq last week, she could surprise. 3.40 Sariska 11/10 boy bog 15 pts On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
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Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3936pts Returned 3387.9pts P/L -548.1 Yield -13.92% Strike rate 30.72% (106/349) Curr 2.35 She’s Our Mark 9/2 spo 10 pts This mare has been in really good form for a while now and with conditions to suit she can go close today. She has shown she can act on various grounds but I generally feel she comes into her own when there is at least some cut and she will more than get that today. She demonstrated her solid form best this season when beating Chinese White on heavy and she ran a perfectly fine race at royal ascot to be fifth over a trip slightly inadequate for here. A furlong further today which is much more ideal and on this ground she has a clear chance. 3.05 Walk on Bye 3/1 boy bog 10 pts A tough two year old race to call given the unknowns of the ground for some of these but one I like is Walk on Bye for a yard who won this race two years back. As a filly she gets a few pounds from some of these and in these types of conditions that could well help. On OR she needs to step up from just one maiden win by a narrow margin but she was worth much more than the winning margin that day as she had a luckless trip and she looks well capable of further improvement on her next start. She is proven at this trip on this course and particularly as there could be some holes in Beethoven, notably ground and that the Chesham had a bit of a let down at hq last week, she could surprise. 3.40 Sariska 11/10 boy bog 15 pts On this ground I feel Sariska could be very hard to beat. I actually feel a softer surface could help here even more, she handled it well on her eye catching seasonal debut but given she is by pivotal who can like a bit of cut and that she is a half sister to gull wing who thrives with some cut. Before Epsom she looked classy given her York win but still had to adequately prove stamina and she did that by winning the oaks. On that win, there is very little between Midday and Sariska but I’m not sure about Cecil’s filly on this ground and none of the Irish challengers appeal to me that much. Sariska could be very tough to beat here.
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Re: Best bet of the day - Sat - 11/7/09 York 3.10 Albaqaa 0.5 pts e.w I nearly backed this lto having put him up before to see him just out of the frame but was put off by his wide draw that day so left him, only for him to then run a cracker and only just find one too good. Once again he has a poor draw but I’m going for him today. His trainer’s record in this race is top notch and interestingly the last two winners of this race he has had, followed a very similar path to this one by starting off at pont at the start of the season. This one was third that day before then his fourth at the track for which he is better off with the winner today. However his run lto despite his draw just indicated his really solid form again and despite another wide draw I can see him close again.
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Re: Ascot 11th 2.50 Aqlaam 11/4 cor 10 pts I like the look of this relatively upward looking horse. He has only had 5 runs in his life in stark contrast to a principal danger Cesare and there might be a bit more left to come still. He looked very promising when winning the jersey last year and then found soft ground too much in the locking when the vibes were not great. The vibes were better lto and he responded with a solid third in the queen anne. That leaves him slightly behind cesare but I think a little bit more improvement could come and also I’m not sure cesare can back up his good performance lto with another one so quickly given the large break he had going into his last race. 4.00 Silver Games 9/2 bet3 bog 10 pts This filly has been in good form and she could run well here. Initially she ran two very solid races at good and then took a Newcastle race after that by a narrow margin but still a fair race. Tarzan has been disappointing since from that race but that cant be said for the relatively close 4,5 and 7th who have won/run really well since, so that wasn’t a bad race. Then she showed an ever important liking for the track with a good fourth in a listed race during the royal meet. Being off the pace helped her that day but she still ran well and ultimately her widest of all challenge may not have been the place to be. She was second after that in a small four runner race but the bigger field could see her in a better light and bits of form give her a chance.
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Re: York - Saturday 11/7/09 2.05 Kingdom of Light 5/2 pp bog 10 pts It wouldn’t surprise me to see this one bounce back to form today off top weight. Lto he showed a fair bit of early speed when duelling with and American horse only to pay for it and be eased down. Before that though he had looked to be going in the right direction. Second debut if not beaten some way, he then won a race decisively that worked out incredibly well. The next four runners behind him that day to have run since, have all won at some point, so it wasn’t as if he was beaten nothing that day. This race today could see him in a different light today and he could go close. 3.10 Albaqaa 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w I nearly backed this lto having put him up before to see him just out of the frame but was put off by his wide draw that day so left him, only for him to then run a cracker and only just find one too good. Once again he has a poor draw but I’m going for him today. His trainer’s record in this race is top notch and interestingly the last two winners of this race he has had, followed a very similar path to this one by starting off at pont at the start of the season. This one was third that day before then his fourth at the track for which he is better off with the winner today. However his run lto despite his draw just indicated his really solid form again and despite another wide draw I can see him close again. Sweet Lightening 14/1 lad 5 pts e.w Another one with a bad draw that I fancy. I would have fancied him more but for the extreme wide draw which will mean he will need luck in running, something he didn’t get lto, but he still has solid claims. His first run this season on the a.w in the rosebery was a cracker when just second and then he had no luck in running at Epsom. Sure he wouldn’t have beaten Duncan but he could well have been placed and off the same mark today, he could be a threat if finding the gaps at the right time. 3.45 Friston Forest 9/2 pp bog 10 pts Godolphin continue to be in pretty good form and this one has been one that has been running well this season even when others of theirs have not. After beating veracity in Dubai, he then just found a subsequent royal ascot winner too good by the narrowest of margins after that. Then he ran in the plate lto and ran really well for a long way for a horse top weight that day. He travelled like the winner 2f out and even though the pace wasn’t strong, he failed to get home over 2m in bog like conditions. Given that, the drop back to 14f looks more ideal and he is in good enough form to go close.
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Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3871pts Returned 3320.4pts P/L -550.6 Yield -14.22% Strike rate 30.32% (104/343) York 2.05 Kingdom of Light 5/2 pp bog 10 pts It wouldn’t surprise me to see this one bounce back to form today off top weight. Lto he showed a fair bit of early speed when duelling with and American horse only to pay for it and be eased down. Before that though he had looked to be going in the right direction. Second debut if not beaten some way, he then won a race decisively that worked out incredibly well. The next four runners behind him that day to have run since, have all won at some point, so it wasn’t as if he was beaten nothing that day. This race today could see him in a different light today and he could go close. 3.10 Albaqaa 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w I nearly backed this lto having put him up before to see him just out of the frame but was put off by his wide draw that day so left him, only for him to then run a cracker and only just find one too good. Once again he has a poor draw but I’m going for him today. His trainer’s record in this race is top notch and interestingly the last two winners of this race he has had, followed a very similar path to this one by starting off at pont at the start of the season. This one was third that day before then his fourth at the track for which he is better off with the winner today. However his run lto despite his draw just indicated his really solid form again and despite another wide draw I can see him close again. Sweet Lightening 14/1 lad 5 pts e.w Another one with a bad draw that I fancy. I would have fancied him more but for the extreme wide draw which will mean he will need luck in running, something he didn’t get lto, but he still has solid claims. His first run this season on the a.w in the rosebery was a cracker when just second and then he had no luck in running at Epsom. Sure he wouldn’t have beaten Duncan but he could well have been placed and off the same mark today, he could be a threat if finding the gaps at the right time. 3.45 Friston Forest 9/2 pp bog 10 pts Godolphin continue to be in pretty good form and this one has been one that has been running well this season even when others of theirs have not. After beating veracity in Dubai, he then just found a subsequent royal ascot winner too good by the narrowest of margins after that. Then he ran in the plate lto and ran really well for a long way for a horse top weight that day. He travelled like the winner 2f out and even though the pace wasn’t strong, he failed to get home over 2m in bog like conditions. Given that, the drop back to 14f looks more ideal and he is in good enough form to go close. Ascot 2.50 Aqlaam 11/4 cor 10 pts I like the look of this relatively upward looking horse. He has only had 5 runs in his life in stark contrast to a principal danger Cesare and there might be a bit more left to come still. He looked very promising when winning the jersey last year and then found soft ground too much in the locking when the vibes were not great. The vibes were better lto and he responded with a solid third in the queen anne. That leaves him slightly behind cesare but I think a little bit more improvement could come and also I’m not sure cesare can back up his good performance lto with another one so quickly given the large break he had going into his last race. 4.00 Silver Games 9/2 bet3 bog 10 pts This filly has been in good form and she could run well here. Initially she ran two very solid races at good and then took a Newcastle race after that by a narrow margin but still a fair race. Tarzan has been disappointing since from that race but that cant be said for the relatively close 4,5 and 7th who have won/run really well since, so that wasn’t a bad race. Then she showed an ever important liking for the track with a good fourth in a listed race during the royal meet. Being off the pace helped her that day but she still ran well and ultimately her widest of all challenge may not have been the place to be. She was second after that in a small four runner race but the bigger field could see her in a better light and bits of form give her a chance. Salis 9.00 Suba 2/1 bet3 bog 10 pts I backed this one lto when she won in a dead heat. However I felt but for a slightly luckless passage she would have won outright that day and I feel she could do just that today. She is only 4 pounds higher and has a stack of possible improvement left in her. She should come on from here first run of the season and the yard but is closely related to some top animals like Dubawi and she could thrive in Cumani’s hands starting from today even though this could end up being a hot race.
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Re: Spooner's Thread Pretty good going in here so far :clap
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Re: Best bet of the day 10th July (Friday) Newm 2.35 Mutheeb 1 pt win With the exception of the fav who I feel could well bounce, the most unexposed runner in the field who I feel could run really well here. A few starts back he beat Mia’s Boy which is no mean whatsoever. Then he ran another solid race on the a.w behind good sorts in Strike the Deal and Tamagin and suggesting a return to 7f was just what he needed. He then got that at asc and ran pretty well if not suggesting that could be even better for the experience. He finished fourth but is much better off with the winner and I feel the experience of a big field like that will help him even more for today and I think he can ran pretty well here.
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Re: ASCOT - Friday 10th 2009 At least one of us should crack the Ascot 3.00: 3.00 Alanbrooke 7/4 betfr 10 pts I was annoyed I missed this one last week. I sort of gave up on him after a few disappointing efforts for this clearly talented but slightly wayward sort. However lto they put a pair of blinkers on him and he was very impressive in routing a field at sandown and suggesting that today extra trip would be in range. He looked nicely handicapped after a slightly luckless effort earlier in the year of a decent race at newb before a few abject runs really where he missed the start a few times and looked reluctant. However the blinkers clearly worked lto and whilst there is always a question ark to if they work as well again, if they do he could be hard to beat.
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Re: York Friday 10th July 2.45 Serious Attitude 3/1 spo 10 pts This is a possible class performer here who in truth would not be out of place in the july cup. Despite a more stamina looking pedigree, she has shown that she is far better at sprint trips. Last season she continually thrived and eventually took the group 1 at hq albeit it may not have been the strongest of renewals. Then she went to the guineas as second fav only to not get home having travelled strongly. On that evidence a return to sprint distance should be in her favour and whilst she may not be 100% fit after a slight lay off, she might just have a class edge to prevail.
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Re: Newmarket - Fri 10/7/09 1.30 Sovereign Remedy 8/1 betfr 5 pts e.w Godolphin often divide opinions but they seem to be in good form atm and also seem to be doing quite well in some of these handicaps lately. With the trip being far more to this one’s liking today, this could be another one to prosper. Lto in a fairly strongly run race over further at York he blatantly did not get home having travelled well enough. On that the drop back to a mile should suit. Before that he had shown useful form, a second in a maiden when ahead of Hills’ ride and then once again when winning a maiden and once again when ahead of the same horse who is much shorter today. Yet he is better off with that one today. With a possible excuse for its last run, I can see this one bouncing back today. 2.00 Emperor Claudius 13/8 betfr 10 pts This is a superbly bred horse and one who had a tough race lto but providing that hasn’t taken too much out of him, could go very close today and reverse form from that day. He charged home late on at ascot that day and only just failed to catch BA having fluffed the start. With a stiffer finish and improvement very possible still I can see him being right in the picture today. 2.35 Mutheeb 9/1 tote 7.5 pts e.w With the exception of the fav who I feel could well bounce, the most unexposed runner in the field who I feel could run really well here. A few starts back he beat Mia’s Boy which is no mean whatsoever. Then he ran another solid race on the a.w behind good sorts in Strike the Deal and Tamagin and suggesting a return to 7f was just what he needed. He then got that at asc and ran pretty well if not suggesting that could be even better for the experience. He finished fourth but is much better off with the winner and I feel the experience of a big field like that will help him even more for today and I think he can ran pretty well here. 3.10 Scenic Blast 9/5 spo 15 pts This one was so impressive at ascot and I think could take an awful lot of beating today. Yes that was at 5f and this is 6f and a stiff finish at that. However I still think his clear ability to travel that he demonstrated at asc will carry him a long way into the race and make him very difficult to beat. He may have won only just at asc but he was not extended, probably on the wrong part of the track and for me worth a bit more than the winning margin. He does have form over 6f with a trademark late run albeit on nothing like as stiffer finishes as this one. However I can see his natural class taking him a long way into the race and making him very tough to beat when eh comes with his late and hopefully trouble free rattle. 4.55 Pictorial 9/2 boy bog 5 pts e.w The least exposed runner in the field and one that I feel can run very well today. He stepped up well from his promising enough debut to win lto at Windsor and look a definite horse to follow in the future when pitched into handicap company. That was at 10f yet he was scrubbed along at one stage only to fly late on and win and on the evidence of that, the extra distance today should be a help even though he is by the not exactly but even still developing stamina influence Pivotal. As for the form it has taken some knocks but equally the fourth that day Acquisition has now won twice since, so its not exactly poor form and with the step up in trip shaping to suit, this unexposed runner could go well off 82 today.
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Re: WoodyTHFC Flat Season 2009 Bets Staked 3791pts Returned 3213.52pts P/L -577.48 Yield -15.23% Strike rate 29.76% (100/336) Poor day yesterday with just one place but 4 seconds. Newm 1.30 Sovereign Remedy 8/1 betfr 5 pts e.w Godolphin often divide opinions but they seem to be in good form atm and also seem to be doing quite well in some of these handicaps lately. With the trip being far more to this one’s liking today, this could be another one to prosper. Lto in a fairly strongly run race over further at York he blatantly did not get home having travelled well enough. On that the drop back to a mile should suit. Before that he had shown useful form, a second in a maiden when ahead of Hills’ ride and then once again when winning a maiden and once again when ahead of the same horse who is much shorter today. Yet he is better off with that one today. With a possible excuse for its last run, I can see this one bouncing back today. 2.00 Emperor Claudius 13/8 betfr 10 pts This is a superbly bred horse and one who had a tough race lto but providing that hasn’t taken too much out of him, could go very close today and reverse form from that day. He charged home late on at ascot that day and only just failed to catch BA having fluffed the start. With a stiffer finish and improvement very possible still I can see him being right in the picture today. 2.35 Mutheeb 9/1 tote 7.5 pts e.w With the exception of the fav who I feel could well bounce, the most unexposed runner in the field who I feel could run really well here. A few starts back he beat Mia’s Boy which is no mean whatsoever. Then he ran another solid race on the a.w behind good sorts in Strike the Deal and Tamagin and suggesting a return to 7f was just what he needed. He then got that at asc and ran pretty well if not suggesting that could be even better for the experience. He finished fourth but is much better off with the winner and I feel the experience of a big field like that will help him even more for today and I think he can ran pretty well here. 3.10 Scenic Blast 9/5 spo 15 pts This one was so impressive at ascot and I think could take an awful lot of beating today. Yes that was at 5f and this is 6f and a stiff finish at that. However I still think his clear ability to travel that he demonstrated at asc will carry him a long way into the race and make him very difficult to beat. He may have won only just at asc but he was not extended, probably on the wrong part of the track and for me worth a bit more than the winning margin. He does have form over 6f with a trademark late run albeit on nothing like as stiffer finishes as this one. However I can see his natural class taking him a long way into the race and making him very tough to beat when eh comes with his late and hopefully trouble free rattle. 4.55 Pictorial 9/2 boy bog 5 pts e.w The least exposed runner in the field and one that I feel can run very well today. He stepped up well from his promising enough debut to win lto at Windsor and look a definite horse to follow in the future when pitched into handicap company. That was at 10f yet he was scrubbed along at one stage only to fly late on and win and on the evidence of that, the extra distance today should be a help even though he is by the not exactly but even still developing stamina influence Pivotal. As for the form it has taken some knocks but equally the fourth that day Acquisition has now won twice since, so its not exactly poor form and with the step up in trip shaping to suit, this unexposed runner could go well off 82 today. York 2.45 Serious Attitude 3/1 spo 10 pts This is a possible class performer here who in truth would not be out of place in the july cup. Despite a more stamina looking pedigree, she has shown that she is far better at sprint trips. Last season she continually thrived and eventually took the group 1 at hq albeit it may not have been the strongest of renewals. Then she went to the guineas as second fav only to not get home having travelled strongly. On that evidence a return to sprint distance should be in her favour and whilst she may not be 100% fit after a slight lay off, she might just have a class edge to prevail. Asc 3.00 Alanbrooke 7/4 betfr 10 pts I was annoyed I missed this one last week. I sort of gave up on him after a few disappointing efforts for this clearly talented but slightly wayward sort. However lto they put a pair of blinkers on him and he was very impressive in routing a field at sandown and suggesting that today extra trip would be in range. He looked nicely handicapped after a slightly luckless effort earlier in the year of a decent race at newb before a few abject runs really where he missed the start a few times and looked reluctant. However the blinkers clearly worked lto and whilst there is always a question ark to if they work as well again, if they do he could be hard to beat.
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Re: Cricket: County Championship 2009 Division 2 Two for me in this division: Middlesex to beat Leicestershire 4/6 skyb (DNB) 10 pts Middlesex have lost just one game all season in f/c cricket and they have a much stronger side out than they have at times this season. Shah has been in great form so far for Middlesex and he is joined by Morgan who returns today. Compton also hit a 100 last week so the batting seems fair enough although Dexter misses out. What I like though is the return of a really useful bowler at this level in Murtagh. He strengthens the pace attack and then there is the option of the spinning pair of Udal and Kartik. Bear in mind as well that this was a side who looked the more likely winners against Surrey last week. Leicestershire have a very similar record to Middlesex in that they too have only lost one game and drawn the rest. They have a very strong core duo of their two South Africans and a combination of useful and promising players to go with that, in particular a couple who have done well for the U19’s lately. However I still think the extra strength is with Middlesex and if there is to be a winner I think it can be them. Kent to beat Surrey 8/11 lad (DNB) 10 pts Kent’s side looks very strong today. Wayne Parnell returns and that is a major coup. Along with the likes of Cook, McLaren, Khan and Treadwell it looks one of the best attack anywhere in county cricket, never mind div 2. Their batting is historically pretty deep although they need more out of Key. However Denly comes back in and they still have the run machine MJV. As for Surrey they too have a strong looking top 5. However their bowling attack doesn’t look anywhere near as strong and whereas I can see Kent threatening Surreys’ batting on a regular basis, I don’t feel that anywhere near as much the case for Surrey. Kent look the stronger side and I like them here.
Golf: The Open Championship
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Re: Golf: The Open Championship