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Godders

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Posts posted by Godders

    Football home values

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi all,

    A system here that's going to attempt to find value plays on football teams playing at home. Value is based on my judgement along with a statistical method to find teams whose true chance of winning is greater than the odds suggest. Bets will be taken from English and major european leagues (and possibly cup competitions too).

    All odds taken from Betfair. Starting bank is 100 points and each bet is 1 point.

    Picks for today are:

    MIddlesborough: 2.4

    Burnley: 2.74

    Southampton: 1.87

    Barnsley: 3.95

    Burton Albion: 3.1

    Preston: 2.32

    Coventry: 2.2

    Gillingham: 2.22

    Port Vale: 2.28

     

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Yes Harry, I agree with you. That's primarily the reason why I'm tracking the 'value' - my thinking is that the greater the confidence in a particular result (ie the shorter the true odds would likely be if that were the question asked), the more people would pick that result, meaning a greater value percentage. Will be interesting to see after a large number of bets whether there's a difference in the yield across different value sizes. Heading towards the 2nd loss at the moment with St Helens trailing Warrington 12-8 at the moment.

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Picks for tomorrow (Friday) NRL- Storm (vs Panthers) @ 1.44. 14% value. Super League - Leeds (vs Salford) @ 1.17. 12% value. T20 - Kent (vs Glamorgan) @ 1.67. 36% value T20 - Northamptonshire (vs Yorkshire) @ 1.73. 35% value T20 - Birmingham (vs Lancashire) @ 1.73. 39% value T20 - Surrey (vs Somerset) @ 1.75. 24% value T20 - Worcestershire (vs Derbyshire) @ 1.73. 33% value T20 - Essex (vs Middlesex) @ 1.67. 33% value T20 - Sussex (vs Hampshire) @ 1.8. 32% value AFL - North Melbourne (vs Essendon) @ 1.33. 19% value Bet will depend on outcome of the St Helens bet in play at the moment. I'll post the bet size later this evening

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hard to quibble with results thus far but, just to be clear, I believe you've clarified that you're basing your edge on % chance represented by actual odds v % of people predicting the outcome in question, e.g. 18/20 think something will happen equates to a 90% chance? Based on the examples given above, a more accurate measure would be a large number of people estimating the % chance of something happening then taking the average as being the true odds? (So team B would have a 70% chance of winning based on the 2 man "crowd" in your example.) Have I got that right, i.e. it's not based on the average of the crowd's estimate of the true probability, just their predicted outcome?
    I'm not expecting these results to continue!! I don't understand your question though?

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Picks for Friday T20 Blast - Essex (vs Middlesex) @ 1.62. 30% value. T20 Blast - Birmingham (vs Worcestershire) @ 1.8. 12% value T20 Blast - Nottinghamshire (vs Derbyshire) @ 1.44. 18% value T20 Blast - Kent (vs Somerset) @ 1.67. 36% value T20 Blast - Sussex (vs Glamorgan) @ 1.67. 11% value NRL - Raiders (vs Knights) @ 1.44. 21% value Super League - St Helens (vs Huddersfield) @ 1.57. 16% value

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Selections for tomorrow: NatWest T20 Blast - Northamptonshire (vs Derbyshire) @ 1.73. 27% value Super league - Hull (vs Wakefield) @ 1.14. 10% value Super league - Huddersfield (vs Hull KR) @ 1.25. 13% value Super league - Castleford (vs Widnes) @ 1.17. 11% value MLS - Portland Timbers (vs San Jose) @ 1.57. 10% value
    A great start to the system with all 5 coming in. Bank now £109.30, so next bets will be £5.46 Bets made: 5 Bets won: 5 SR: 100% Yield: 37.2%

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I'll attempt to explain the system a little more. Wisdom of the crowd refers to the collective opinion of a group of individuals, rather than the judgement of just one person. The idea is that using a collective opinion reduces the 'noise' in individual judgements. As an example - I may think team A has an 80% chance of winning against team B. Someone else may think they only have a 60% chance. Who's right? Probably neither, but if you take the judgements of many people, the wisdom of the crowd theory says that the average of all the guesses will be very close to the actual chance of team A beating team B (in a particular wisdom of the crowd experiment, members of the public were asked to guess the weight of a slaughtered ox. The average of all the guesses was apparently within 1% of the actual weight). Not sure if I can post external websites, but basically it's has various competitions where you predict the outcome of an event (and you get points based on how accurate your predictions are). Once you've entered your predictions, you can then see the averages of everyone elses predictions. This is how I'm measuring the wisdom of the crowd. The favourite longshot bias is a psychological phenomenon where the chance of a big favourite coming in is underestimated, and the chance of long odds outsiders overestimated. This effect becomes more pronounced the shorter the odds. The idea of this system then is to try and take advantage of both of these by using a crowd's collective opinion of a particular outcome, and the selections will only be made on short odds favourites where the crowd's estimate of the chance of the bet winning represents value over the bookies odds.

    Wisdom of the crowd AND favourite longshot bias

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi all, As the title suggests, this is a system that takes advantage of wisdom of the crowd and the favourite longshot bias across a number of sports. There is a website I use that collates individual predictions for various sporting events and converts into a percentage of each outcome happening. This is where the wisdom of crowd comes in. The favourite longshot bias will be satisfied by only choosing selections at odds on prices. Selections will simply be where the 'crowd' determines there is value in the odds. £100 starting bank. Each selection will be 5% of the bank at the start of each day. Odds taken will be best available from oddschecker at the time of posting. I'll also include the value for each selection.

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