[Tennis: 10th - 16th January]

Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January

Some pathetic performances by a several players yesterday, but it's a week before a slam and their main goal is to make sure they are in some decent form and stay fresh for the upcoming week, not to win their matches even they are capable to do so! Think i'm gonna try a few today based on the belief above, so far pick Robredo to win in straight sets @ 2,50 as Isner already had few tough tests, he's bad baseliner and Robredo is a really bad match-up for him. One of those will hurry to take a rest, maybe do some shopping in Sydney (by the example of Bellucci, Troicki, Berdych, Penneta..), everything points that it will be Isner :hope 4 units

So true, 2 of my outright selections ( monfils, nalbandian ) didn´t even turn up at the event...:spank

[ATP and WTA Outright System]

Re: ATP and WTA Outright System

Good luck with this system, mate. How do you calculate the probabilities of a matchup? Is it just your own estimation or do you use some sort of data/tool? And in your example with Söderling, Tsonga, Federer and Mayer: when you compute the probability of Söderling winning vs Tsonga (in the final), do you take into account that Tsonga has beaten Federer in the semifinal and therefore must be playing at the top of his level? I mean, if Söderling wins vs Tsonga 50% in a normal match, but Tsonga has the form to beat Federer at the moment, the number should drop a bit. Do you consider this in your numbers?

Yeah i use a 16x16matrix for each half of the draw and then use probs of winning the final between 0,3 and 0.7. And i use my own view on the matches of course, so the system is only as good as the input but i use oncourt and other things to sharpen my view... I don´t use this form thing you mentioned with Tsonga, as it is impossible ( at least for me ) to calculate some "form" for every possible matchup in a tournament of 32 players... But the system should only give me a hint of who should be value and most of the time its clearly value or clearly no value, and if on the brink, i use my own feeling.... Last tournament in Doha i had a good run with Davydenko, this time it seems like everything goes wrong, but its only one week so who cares... Greetz Arantxa

[Tennis: 10th - 16th January]

Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January

To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers

Ok i posted it in the systems forum too!! Doesn´t start too good with 2 selections ( Andreev and Lisicki ) losing deep in the 3rd, and Czink going down to Dulko but for value with Lisicki one could see that Azarenka was around 10s and Lisicki around 34s, with Azarenka winning in a clear 50/50 match, so its clear where the value was?

[ATP and WTA Outright System]

Just copy&pasted this from the "Other Sports Section" Unfortunately Lisicki has already lost 7/5 in the 3rd and Andreev 7/6 in the 3rd, while Czink went down to Dulko, so this 3 selections are already lost, but i will still count them to start with this thread to stay consistent and honest...:ok To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers Oh i forgot to say if there are any profitable opportunities in my view to hedge a bet, e.g. if Gicquel reaches the final or so, i will probably do so, depending on my view and the bank situation...

[ATP and WTA Outright System]

Hi @all great stuff here as always. I created an Outright "System" for this year and want to blog it here. It´s not really a system though, just made an excel sheet that takes every match till the final into account, so also the "unexpected" value of a selection.... To maybe explain this a bit one could mention the tournament last week where Söderling went out to Ginepri 1st round. Many people ( i used to do it too ) look at a draw like this: P.e. for Wawrinka Outright Ok Wawrinka will face Bopanna where he should be 85% Favorite, then he will likely face Ruseel ( 80% favo ) and then Berrer ( 75% favo ), in the semis he will play Söderling ( 40% Outsider ) and in the final maybe Cilic ( also 40% Outsider ) --> then you calculate 0,85*0,80*0,75*0,4*0,4= 0,08--> Odds around 12 should be value. BUT you underestimate the fact, that Söderling could lose first round!! or 2nd round!! or quarters!! BEFORE facing Wawrinka... So my system calculates in a nutshell if you have a 4 player tournament: P.e. Semis Söderling 88% Florian Mayer 12% Federer 80% Tsonga 20% I create a matrix: with probabilities for each player against each: Söderling chance against: Mayer 88% Federer 25% Tsonga 50% Mayer chance against: ( against Söderling already above 1-0,88=12%) Federer 7% Tsonga 18% Federer against: Tsonga 80% Tsonga against: already given by the 3 above Instinctically you would calculate Outright for Söderling: Beating Mayer 0,88 and then he has to beat Federer 0,25 -->Odds around @4,50 With my system it goes for a Söderling Outright: Beating Mayer 0,88*X X= Chance of Federer being in the Final (0,8)*Chance of Söderling beating Federer ( 0,25 )+ Chance of Tsonga being in the final ( 0,2 )* Chance of Söderling beating Tsonga ( 0,50 ) X=0,3 Odds for Söderling= 1/(0,88*0,3)= @3,80 So the difference of only one uncertain round is already significant and as you can imagine if you calculate the whole tournament like this, there can be found some value.... Has anybody of you thought about a similar approach yet?? Would be interesting to know for me:clap I will start with a Bank of 100, lets see how it turns out...

[Tennis: 10th - 16th January]

Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers

[Tennis: 10th - 16th January]

Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Hi @all great stuff here as always. I created an Outright "System" for this year and want to blog it here. It´s not really a system though, just made an excel sheet that takes every match till the final into account, so also the "unexpected" value of a selection.... To maybe explain this a bit one could mention the tournament last week where Söderling went out to Ginepri 1st round. Many people ( i used to do it too ) look at a draw like this: P.e. for Wawrinka Outright Ok Wawrinka will face Bopanna where he should be 85% Favorite, then he will likely face Ruseel ( 80% favo ) and then Berrer ( 75% favo ), in the semis he will play Söderling ( 40% Outsider ) and in the final maybe Cilic ( also 40% Outsider ) --> then you calculate 0,85*0,80*0,75*0,4*0,4= 0,08--> Odds around 12 should be value. BUT you underestimate the fact, that Söderling could lose first round!! or 2nd round!! or quarters!! BEFORE facing Wawrinka... So my system calculates in a nutshell if you have a 4 player tournament: P.e. Semis Söderling 88% Florian Mayer 12% Federer 80% Tsonga 20% I create a matrix: with probabilities for each player against each: Söderling chance against: Mayer 88% Federer 25% Tsonga 50% Mayer chance against: ( against Söderling already above 1-0,88=12%) Federer 7% Tsonga 18% Federer against: Tsonga 80% Tsonga against: already given by the 3 above Instinctically you would calculate Outright for Söderling: Beating Mayer 0,88 and then he has to beat Federer 0,25 -->Odds around @4,50 With my system it goes for a Söderling Outright: Beating Mayer 0,88*X X= Chance of Federer being in the Final (0,8)*Chance of Söderling beating Federer ( 0,25 )+ Chance of Tsonga being in the final ( 0,2 )* Chance of Söderling beating Tsonga ( 0,50 ) X=0,3 Odds for Söderling= 1/(0,88*0,3)= @3,80 So the difference of only one uncertain round is already significant and as you can imagine if you calculate the whole tournament like this, there can be found some value.... Has anybody of you thought about a similar approach yet?? Would be interesting to know for me:clap Have only done the work for Sydney yet and my system bets are: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Greetz Arantxa

[Wimbledon]

Re: Wimbledon I´m thinking of Tsonga and Fish tomorrow... Fish @4,60 3-4/10 Betfair ( try to hedge in-play ) Should be worth a shot against Djokovic who couldn´t convince anyone by now, at least i am 90% sure that Djoko´s Price will be higher than the rediculus 1,28 on BF at some point during the match... Tsonga @1,60 7/10 Betfair Karlo has his own story on the grass, but Tsonga can also serve and should be able to create some opportunities here and then because Karlo and "playing" tennis can´t be used in one sentence... Could end 7/6 6/7 7/6 7/6 for Karlo, but any break by Tsonga will surely not be recaptured by Karlo.... So more 6/4 7/5 6/7 6/4 ish for Tsonga for me.. Opinions anyone?? MfG Arantxa

[ATP & WTA Eastbourne/Hertogenbosch 14-21 June]

Re: ATP & WTA Eastbourne/Hertogenbosch 14-21 June Bartoli tb. Razzano @1,57 7/10 Betfair I think Bartoli should nick this quiet comfortably, has all the advantages with her. Razzano played 2 tough matches in a row ( good wins though ) and should be a bit tired. Bartoli has 2-0 h2h both from 2008, the better serve and the faster game which brought her to wimbledon final in ancient times. Razzano has to hope for unforced errors, but with 3 matches already won from Bartoli there is no question about form, i won´t back this if its 1st round, but at this stage of the tournament i trust Bartoli to show her higher grass potential... MfG Arantxa

[ATP & WTA Eastbourne/Hertogenbosch 14-21 June]

Re: ATP & WTA Eastbourne/Hertogenbosch 14-21 June Tamarine Tanasugarn tb. Plavia Penetta @2,08 Betfair 8/10 I think Tanasugarn with her grass court and slippy ground pedigree should be clear fav in this. She won the Ordina Open in 2008 and was in Wimbledon Quarter Final 2008. In the first 2 rounds she smashed her opponents and i think she should also not have big problems with penetta who likes the clay courts more than anything... What do you think?? MfG Arantxa

[ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb Clear as anything... Nadal to win 2:0 @2,50 Pinnacle 7/10 Nadal from his former 27 2set Matches has won 17 Matches 2-0 and 10 Matches not 2-0; Even though Tsonga is more than an average opponent i wouldn´t go higher than 1,80-2,00 for this one... Alize Cornet @4,80 Betfair 4/10 Jankovic struggles all the way and Cornet has the waepons to beat her. Should be more 1,50-3,00 in my opinion... Monfils not to win 2-0 @2,10 6/10 Benneteau to win 2-0 @7,00 1,5/10 Benneteau has some nice wins here against Feli Lopez and Davydenko. His service stas are good so this should be a very tight affair.. Robredo to win 2:0 @2,70 4/10 Don´t like Booooredo at all, but must admit that he was comfortable winner in all his matches at this tourney. He is playing well and relaxed here and although he lost to Acasuso in 3 sets last week, i can see him tourning this completely around today... Belucci to win 2:0 @2,60 Betfair 5/10 Belucci is serving the hell out of him and Gil serves nearly no aces and some double faults, so he will have problems holding serve and stay in the sets in this one. In addition Gil has to run out of steam someday and after a big effort in Johannesburg and 2 tight 3setters here and a tight 7/6 7/6 against Almagro this looks to be the time to lose the first set and than tank/go to the wire... Dechy +6 Games tb. Demetieva @1,91 Pinnacle 6/10 They played each other for many times now with Jelena winning the mass of the encounters, but many matches have gone to 3 sets and i can´t see Natahlie being totally destroyed here in front of her homecrowd.... 6-4 6-4 Elena form me... Good luck :ok Arantxa

[ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb

Hi quite a few for me tomorrow/tonight, Odds are from Pinnacle and/or Betfair at the price i got it, could have changed in bad or good way since last hours... Anyway.. Acasuso - Gonzo @5,0 Betfair 2/10 :@ Gonzo not to win 2-0 @2,35 2/10 Pinnacle:@ Acasuso +4,5 Games @1,90 Admiral 4/10:@ Quite a mix here, both were convincing and Fernando although rightly the fav is quite short here. I can see a tight battle with Fernando coming through in 3 sets, but at this prices i have to side with the underdog... Simon tb. Kohlschreiber @1,56 Pinnacle 8/10:drums Simon played a constant Aussie Open and hat quiet a time off since then preparing for this tournament. If he is up for the challenge he simply is one class above Kohlschreiber in these condtions. Kohlschreiber seems to always fall apart if opposition is strog from the baseline and he can´t dictate the rallies the way he wants... Feli Lopez tb. Benneteau @ 1,58 8/10 Pinnacle:cry Feli had some though draws in recent times and got out unlucky against Muller at the Aussie Open. Feli has to produce a result and willsurely be up for this, as quality is on the side of the spaniard... Gil tb. Andujar @1,91 7/10 Pinnacle:nana Gil had a nice result in the last tournament and Andujar hasn´t won a match this year. Surely Gil could be a bit tired from ghis recent efforts, but at actual form and at this price one just has to hope there is still something left in the tank... Saretta tb. Granollers @3,70 4/10 Pinnacle:loon Maybe that s a bit optimistic, but Saretta has prepared for the South American Clay and Granollers struggling a bit in the last matches. If you discount Granollers ATP Housten Title he maybe would not be TOP 100, so this one should be a much tighter affair with the Homie involved... Belucci tb. Starace @2,10 8/10 Pinnacle:cheers Stand out price for me! Belucci had good stats , especially serving 8 aces, despite going out to Acasuso and has home advantage, while Starace was awfully goig out against Monaco facing quite a few break popints. If Belucci serves well there should be no problem for him. Wrong fav for me here... Karanusic tb. Gremelmayr @2,26 4/10 Betfair:wall Roco had a good show against Mathieu and likes the hard courts, while Gremelmayr is nothing special. Should be aclassic 50:50 Match... Fish tb. Hewitt @2,36 5/10 Pinnacle:notworthy Still have problems going against Hewitt, but Fish with his ability of creating winners and serving well could be to much for fighting Hewitt. Garcia Lopez tb. Isner @2,33 6/10 Pinnacle cancelled Isner really has nothing but a serve and their last meeting ended 7/6 6/7 7/6 so there should be no fav here. Garcia is the better player, the only questions is whenether he can get into the rallies..... Muller tb. Nishikori @2,16 5/10 Pinnacle:spank Nishikori had his problems with lefties in the past plus his injury troubles and i think this could be another very tough match for him. Muller even showed signs of a gameplan during the Aussie Open:tongue2, while his serve was always superb... Nieminen tb. Serra @1,59 8/10 Pinnacle omg jarkko:wall The finn has fallen apart in the rankings because of his injury at the Aussie Open and will be highly motivated to bounce back here. Serra can be dangerous for nearly everybody, but the finn normally does a good job beating the guys between 40 and 100..... Guccione tb. Canas @1,82 5/10 Pinnacle:nana I normally like Guillermo against "BigServeandNothing" Opponents, but he seems to be a shadow of his former self for quiet a while now. Chris has beaten Berdych at the Aussie Open while Canas loses to Antonio Veic.... Dent tb. Reynolds @~1,88 7/10 divers:nana Taylor had alot of injuries, but normally only played when he was fit. Tight losses against Delic in 5 and Gasquet 4-6 5-7 show that he must be at quiet a level and should have to much quality for Bobby if the back holds on... Tursunov tb. Clement @1,58 8/10:nana Clement has his problems when facing big servers and his serve weakness could be exploited by Tursunov who likes the powerfull retourning game. Tursunov got some matches under his belt in the Zagreb quali before going out to Gulbis and for me he is due to a first good showing this year... De Bakker tb. Seppi @3,85 3/10 7-6 in the 3rd..:puke Ispired by Mr. Intensity i have to trie him for small stakes. Seppi lacks confidence at the moment, despite there is nothing wrong losing to Fed twice and the other guys he lost. But hte Bakker nearly upset Tursunov in Zagreb and showed some signs that he is ready for a ( at least ) small breakthrough at his home tourney. He will surely give us a run for our money... Tanasugarn tb. Amanmuradova @1,66 8/10 Pinnacle:clap Tanasugarn likes the coditions in her home country and normally steps up with the challenge. Amamuradova is not a bad player, but i have a gut feeling that Tansugarn could start a godd run in this tournament... ( please shoot me to get involved with the ladies..

Unbelievable but finished up +6,63 Units

[ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb Have a punt with Admiral System 2/3 Stake 2/10 each and a full combo 3/3 1/10 Schwank to win 2:0 @2,20 Razzano to win 2:0 @3,70 Dent to win 2:0 @3,10 people on bf want 2,30 for schwank with comission, want 3,50 for razzano and 3,10 for dent, so this net prices are quiet good and i have good faith to land a bifg score with this one...:beer MfG Arantxa

[ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb

Hi quite a few for me tomorrow/tonight, Odds are from Pinnacle and/or Betfair at the price i got it, could have changed in bad or good way since last hours... Anyway.. Acasuso - Gonzo @5,0 Betfair 2/10 Gonzo not to win 2-0 @2,35 2/10 Pinnacle Acasuso +4,5 Games @1,90 Admiral 4/10 Quite a mix here, both were convincing and Fernando although rightly the fav is quite short here. I can see a tight battle with Fernando coming through in 3 sets, but at this prices i have to side with the underdog...

Shocking bad from Acasuso not putting up nearly a fight and going down 1-6 3-6 in less than one hour...:loon:wall Hope selections tomorrow will perform better...:hope MfG Arantxa

[ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Rotterdam/San Jose & WTA Paris/Pattaya 9th - 15th Feb Hi quite a few for me tomorrow/tonight, Odds are from Pinnacle and/or Betfair at the price i got it, could have changed in bad or good way since last hours... Anyway.. Acasuso - Gonzo @5,0 Betfair 2/10 Gonzo not to win 2-0 @2,35 2/10 Pinnacle Acasuso +4,5 Games @1,90 Admiral 4/10 Quite a mix here, both were convincing and Fernando although rightly the fav is quite short here. I can see a tight battle with Fernando coming through in 3 sets, but at this prices i have to side with the underdog... Simon tb. Kohlschreiber @1,56 Pinnacle 8/10 Simon played a constant Aussie Open and hat quiet a time off since then preparing for this tournament. If he is up for the challenge he simply is one class above Kohlschreiber in these condtions. Kohlschreiber seems to always fall apart if opposition is strog from the baseline and he can´t dictate the rallies the way he wants... Feli Lopez tb. Benneteau @ 1,58 8/10 Pinnacle Feli had some though draws in recent times and got out unlucky against Muller at the Aussie Open. Feli has to produce a result and willsurely be up for this, as quality is on the side of the spaniard... Gil tb. Andujar @1,91 7/10 Pinnacle Gil had a nice result in the last tournament and Andujar hasn´t won a match this year. Surely Gil could be a bit tired from ghis recent efforts, but at actual form and at this price one just has to hope there is still something left in the tank... Saretta tb. Granollers @3,70 4/10 Pinnacle Maybe that s a bit optimistic, but Saretta has prepared for the South American Clay and Granollers struggling a bit in the last matches. If you discount Granollers ATP Housten Title he maybe would not be TOP 100, so this one should be a much tighter affair with the Homie involved... Belucci tb. Starace @2,10 8/10 Pinnacle Stand out price for me! Belucci had good stats , especially serving 8 aces, despite going out to Acasuso and has home advantage, while Starace was awfully goig out against Monaco facing quite a few break popints. If Belucci serves well there should be no problem for him. Wrong fav for me here... Karanusic tb. Gremelmayr @2,26 4/10 Betfair Roco had a good show against Mathieu and likes the hard courts, while Gremelmayr is nothing special. Should be aclassic 50:50 Match... Fish tb. Hewitt @2,36 5/10 Pinnacle Still have problems going against Hewitt, but Fish with his ability of creating winners and serving well could be to much for fighting Hewitt. Garcia Lopez tb. Isner @2,33 6/10 Pinnacle Isner really has nothing but a serve and their last meeting ended 7/6 6/7 7/6 so there should be no fav here. Garcia is the better player, the only questions is whenether he can get into the rallies..... Muller tb. Nishikori @2,16 5/10 Pinnacle Nishikori had his problems with lefties in the past plus his injury troubles and i think this could be another very tough match for him. Muller even showed signs of a gameplan during the Aussie Open:tongue2, while his serve was always superb... Nieminen tb. Serra @1,59 8/10 Pinnacle The finn has fallen apart in the rankings because of his injury at the Aussie Open and will be highly motivated to bounce back here. Serra can be dangerous for nearly everybody, but the finn normally does a good job beating the guys between 40 and 100..... Guccione tb. Canas @1,82 5/10 Pinnacle I normally like Guillermo against "BigServeandNothing" Opponents, but he seems to be a shadow of his former self for quiet a while now. Chris has beaten Berdych at the Aussie Open while Canas loses to Antonio Veic.... Dent tb. Reynolds @~1,88 7/10 divers Taylor had alot of injuries, but normally only played when he was fit. Tight losses against Delic in 5 and Gasquet 4-6 5-7 show that he must be at quiet a level and should have to much quality for Bobby if the back holds on... Tursunov tb. Clement @1,58 8/10 Clement has his problems when facing big servers and his serve weakness could be exploited by Tursunov who likes the powerfull retourning game. Tursunov got some matches under his belt in the Zagreb quali before going out to Gulbis and for me he is due to a first good showing this year... De Bakker tb. Seppi @3,85 3/10 Ispired by Mr. Intensity i have to trie him for small stakes. Seppi lacks confidence at the moment, despite there is nothing wrong losing to Fed twice and the other guys he lost. But hte Bakker nearly upset Tursunov in Zagreb and showed some signs that he is ready for a ( at least ) small breakthrough at his home tourney. He will surely give us a run for our money... Tanasugarn tb. Amanmuradova @1,66 8/10 Pinnacle Tanasugarn likes the coditions in her home country and normally steps up with the challenge. Amamuradova is not a bad player, but i have a gut feeling that Tansugarn could start a godd run in this tournament... ( please shoot me to get involved with the ladies..

[Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning]

Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

sorry steward14 in my opinion you dont know the difference between forehand and backhand you shouldnt be here, and none of the regulars taking you seriously i think you are equal to stefan in terms of tennis knowledge, just not to say that you support that idiot in purpose-perhaps you are the same person- it is very easy my friend for any idiot to open various accounts, and then attack people, didnt you know this? ooowwooo what a miss :lol hehehe, what any ypothesis is, i dont care i just contribute here without any profit:rollin

I think the only thing he wanted to spot is a problem we all fall into some time. You think: "Oh this guy is playing amazing stuff, i have to bet on him next match and then his odds are 1,45. The question then is: Will he win more than 2 out of 3 times in similar circumstances, and often the question is no. Nadal should have been nowwhere near 1,18 to win that match, should have been 1,50 Nadal -3,00 Verdasco or even lower.... If you constantly bet on 1,18 matches that are that wide open, you will lose money in the long term in my opinion.... Look at my Verdasco selection against Tsonga: It was 1,60 Tsonga/ 2,60 Verdasco and i took Verdasco because i saw it quiet 50/50 maybe A BIT in Tsonga´s favour.... would Tsonga have been 2,00 or above i would have had a bet on him... ITS all about Odds AND CHANCES and not only about feeling who could win more likely..... As for the men final i will be on Federer (- Games ) ~@1,90have to decide where and what. @Andrew Murray: I think you dont have to use the word idiot 5 times in one post to make your point clear.... MfG B. Good luck and happy punting:ok

[Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning]

Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Federer -6,5 Games tb. Roddick @1,90 Admiral 7/10 One doesn´t have to be a genius to spot this, but Federer simply is the better tennis player. His egde in retourning is big and he has the abillity to nullify Roddicks mean weapon, the serve... So if you reduce Roddick without his serve he is not more than an average TOP 50 Player. I think that one set will finish comfortably for Fed. ( 6-1 or 6-2 ) which should do the handicap a favour... eg. 6-4 6-1 7-6 or something... maybe Roddick wins a set 7-6 but he´ll definately have no shoot out set, which is vital for handicap betting... Good luck:ok MfG B.

[Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning]

Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Fernando Verdasco tb. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6/10 @2,64 Pinnacle To be honest i´m surprised to see Verdasco beeing such a dog here. Tsonga played ok in his first 3 matches and showed good form against blake, but Verdasco also impressed, almost killed Clement and Stepanek and we all know how foolish you can look against Andy Murray. Both have plenty of fire power, maybe Tsonga has more ability in hitting through his opponents, while verdasco maybe has some better mix in his shots, especially his forehand is a lethal weapon. I would quote that as 1,85 1,90 for Verdasco or at least in that range, above 2,50 is an insult to a red hot player at the moment.. I expect Verdsco to come through in 4 sets, so I´ll maybe bet on 3-1 with cover money back 3-0 Verdasco also... Good luck to all...:ok MfG Ara

[Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning]

Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

I'm totally against you here mate Simon +7 2.25' date= Simon will give Nadal a battle, pressure is on Rafa, I expect Simon to force lot of errors from Nadal. As you see both Federer and Nadal, don't like playing against guys like Simon or Murray, who have steal nerves in long rallies. It's a battle of defensive and attacking tennis. I think defense will prevail tomorrow, if not, at least Simon won't lose with a huge difference.

I took the +8,5 Games Handicap @2,00 Admiral 7/10 even covers 6-3 6-4 6-3 ish Scoreline, i give Simon far more then 50% not to suffer a complete shootout...:hope MfG Ara

[US Open 25th August - 8th September]

Re: US Open 25th August - 7th September Sorry to post something a little bit off topic but still related with tennis: Can anyone tell me how approx. bookies spread their margin?? If e.g. today Roddick v.s. Gonzalez is Avrg. 1,47 -2,64 with 6% Margin or 94% payout. Can one say 3% goes to the favourite and 3% goes to the underdog: Like 1/1,47 = 68% -3% = 65% -->Fair Odds would be 1/0,65 = 1,538 and 1/2,64 = 38% -3% = 35% -->Fair Odds would be 1/0,35 = 2,86 Or do Bookies normally spread their Margin 4% for the favourite and 2% for the underdog, because people like betting favourites?? Or is it different from match to match?? Has anyone worked for the "enemy" and is informed?:unsure Anyone has any idea of how that works? Thanks Arantxa

[Tennis WTA Bias]

Re: Tennis WTA Bias

Exactly. 5% Ok, now you know everything, no more secrets !!! Just guess it will be a good start !!!

Hi sweeps, i think your system is a very good idea, but how do you calculate 5% better Odds?? Do you mean absolute Odds like Avrg. 1,30 should be 1,365 available to back or do you mean 5% more net. profite calculating 0,30*1,05 which means 1,30 Avrg. has to be at least 1,315 to be backed??:unsure Or does it even mean 5% "less" chances expressed in odds wich would be 1/1,30=0,769-0,05=0,719 -->1/0,719= 1,39 MfG B.

[UEFA Cup (Feb 13-14)]

Re: UEFA Cup (Feb 13-14)

A Madrid to beat bolton. I just see madrid having to much class here for bolton who will work hard close down and harass the madrid stars however they have to much quality in my opinion and at 13/8 with coral this price should be snapped up.

Also for me Madrid win all the way.. Good luck

[ATP Brasil/Delray Beach/Marseille & WTA Antwerp 11th-17th Feb]

Re: ATP Brasil/Delray Beach/Marseille & WTA Antwerp 11th-17th Feb What do you people think about Massu @3,05?? vs. Almagro Almagro comes from Peru Davis-Cup, Massu beat him in that tourney two years ago. Massu should be prepared well for this and odds are good indeed.. MfG

[ATP Vina del Mar & Fed Cup 28th Jan - 3rd Feb]

Re: ATP Vina del Mar & Fed Cup 28th Jan - 3rd Feb Chuevas is @3,50 again, is Acasuso better than Verdaco, doubt it and will surely lump on Chuevas again... MfG Arantxa

[ATP Vina del Mar & Fed Cup 28th Jan - 3rd Feb]

Re: ATP Vina del Mar & Fed Cup 28th Jan - 3rd Feb i also think Cuevas is in with a real chance here... @4,70 Bf is very generous. Verdasco´s form early in the year is normally very questionable and Cuevas seems to be ready for the "big" tour ending the year 2007 with 3 clay challenger wins... MfG Arantxa