Arantxa
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Posts posted by Arantxa
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Re: June 17 - June 23
All Questions related to the main draw, no quallies WTA = Damen Williams to reach final and win it 2-0 Yes/No Azarenka to win more rounds then Kvitova Yes/No LI to win more rounds then Radwanska Yes/No Kerber to win more rounds then Kuznetsova Yes/No V. Williams to win more rounds then Ivanovic Yes/No Will Tamira Paszek (AUT) reach at least round 2? Yes/No Will there be more then 40 3-setters in the tournament Yes/No Will there be more then 28 Tie-Breaks in the tournment? Yes/No ATP=Herren Will Nadal win more rounds then Murray? Y/N Will Berdych win more rounds then Haas? Y/N Will Tsonga win more rounds then Del Potro? Y/N Will Melzer(AUT) win more rounds then Haider-Maurer(AUT)? Y/N Will there be more then 22 Five-setters? Y/N Will there be more then 88 Tie-Breaks played? Y/N Will there be more then 4 Tie-Breaks in the 2semis+the final Y/N Will there be played exactely 4 sets in the final? Y/N If all are correct @100, if one is wrong @2,00 It may be fun...Tough when you dont speak Austrian ;) -
Re: June 17 - June 23 If anyone is interested tipp3.at an austrian bookie offers two special bets for the wimbledon Tournament. You have to answer 8 Questions to get fixed Odds of @100, if one question is wrong you still get @2,00. I have tried some combinations for fun :eek http://www.tipp3.at/html/hitbets.jsp?uepSessionToken=bcce4f03e8232dc36e7453b2cadd4399
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Re: Australian Open 2013 Like the Nishikori result as i won on +10 Games Berlocq and fishy won on -8,5 Games Nishikori :rollin Bookies have to pay us both...
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Re: Australian Open 2013 Hi Lads, here are my thoughts and plays for todays matches: All odds from Pinnacle at the time i played. Berlocq +10 to beat Nishikori @1,543 Strenght 8/10 I do think that Nishikori is a bit overrated here against the up and always fighting Berlocq. These two are very even on serve and return stats and seeing that Nishikori had a slight injury vefroe the event i can see Berlocq keeping this close enogh. He won´t give up a set like Hanescu 6/0 and thats the key point for me here. Almagro -7 tb. Gimeno-Traver @2,10 3/10 and Almagro -8 @3,10 2/10Two key facts here for me: Serve: Almagro served fantastically against Johnson and if he keeps it nearly like this i can see very few to no breaks for Gimeno. Temper: Almagro has gotten a bit more serious and calm it seems. A few years ago he would have gone absolutely nuts after losing that second set to Johnson, now he remains calm and plays on. I think he will get enough break opportunities against the fellow spaniard to spike one clear set, which should be enough for this handicap. Devvarman +5,5 Games tb. Janowicz @2,22 Strenght 5/10 I think Devvarman is one a comeback route and Janowicz is overrated due to his success in Paris and his ranking position. Of course Janowicz has the weapons to clear Devvarman away 6/2 6/2 6/1 but he still has to prove that this is his level. If he cannot do this it will get tight against a proven Hard-Court Specialist. Berdych -9,5 tb. Rufin @2,10 Strenght 6/10 Berdych often goes to destruction mode in the early rounds as his fast paced serve and groundstrokes are too much for the average player. Rufin should be happy to get money and points for second round showing due to an easy draw. Berdych will have no sence of humor i gues. Donskoy +2,5 sets tb. Youzhny @1,625 Strenght 8/10 Youzhny has always lacked consistency and Donskoy is an up and comming player who is very dangerous. He will surely establish himself on the main tour soon winning 5 challenger events last year. I can see chances of an outside win or a five set clash but i like the smaller and safer options if they are available. Donskoy to take aset at least it is... Melzer -Bautista-Agut Over 38 Games @1,84 Strenght 6/10This Match shouts "Over" as Melzer in theory is the better tennis player and Bautista has the better form. Bautista is a good returner and not so dominant on serve, so is Melzer. If Melzer serves very good (even better than against Kukushkin) it could be a surprising clear win for him but under normal circumstances no man will have the guts to win in clear fashion. Bautista win in 5 sets i would see, many up and downs and many breaks of serve. Ferrer -9,5 tb. Smyczek @1,641 Strenght 8/10 Ferrer takes no prisoners if possible and has superb form. He is a player who brings his abilities on court 99% of the time and if he does he will destroy Smyczek at least in one set ( maybe the 3rd ). Ferrer is to good a returner for Smyczek to have easy life on serve which will also frustrate him bigtime. Baghdatis -7,5 tb. Ito @1,671 Strenght 8/10Baggy carries good form into this tournament and played very good on serve against a tricky and fighting Albert Ramos who is a dangerous player even if he likes clay more obviously. Ito´s serve is bad (3 Aces and 9 DF against John Millmann) and if Millman can have 15 Break-Chances it is lights out against in-form Baghdatis, serving 21 Aces against Ramos and winning solid 72% of first service points. Lopez tb. Stepanke ML@1,855 and -2,5 @2,22 Strenght 5/10 and 4/10 Odds move here and there in this one with the main concern beiing Stepanek´s fitness i guess. Is he fit? I don´t know. Serving very bad against troicki and still beating him is agood and a bad sign. Still even if Stepanek is fit he lost the last two matches on hard against Lopez who served 26 Aces and only faced 2 Breakpoints against Burgues-Davi who played very good in qualifying. Lopez is always motivated on the big slam stage and he is apperently feeling and playing good so there is no need for Stepanek beiing injured to win this, but if he is, its even better... (of course i wish Stepanek no bad) Benneteau -7,5 tb. Roger-Vasselin @2,11 8/10Benneteau is dominant on serve and knocked out Dimitrov in style. If he beats Dimitrov by 8 Games to spare i think he should be able to do this very often against a much more weaker opponent. Roger-Vasselin did well to battle trough in the first round 11-9 in the fifth, but he will feel that and a gulf in class today. Tipsarevic -7,5 tb. Lacko @1,917 Strenght 4/10 Tipsarevic 3:0 @1,87 Strenght 4/10 You just have to give credit to Tipsarevic for finally becoming a consistent player. Knocking out an in-form Hewitt in 3 in Australia derserves respect. Lacko is a dangerous player of course but he has his ups and downs and Tipsa will take advantage of that especially in the tight moments i can see Tipsa prevail and i can´t see him losing a set. I took both handicap and set-handicap because they nearly cancel out if it ends either 7/5 7/5 6/3 or 6/2 6/1 6/7 6/3 ish. But i see a straight win for Tipsa i this one. Verdasco -3 tb. Malisse @1,943 Strenght 8/10 This one will go to the wire and Verdasco has the better quality when it comes to fighting. He has a very good hard court slam record and better fitness, so there can only be one winner if it goes to five sets. Malisse has a habit to win his sets close and stay on serve, many 7/6 for him in the last years. This can only help Verdasco with this handicap as i see him winning his sets more comfortable. If we see a 6/3 6/7 in the first two sets it nearly comes down to a straight win to much better odds. I am very convinced of this so i staked 8/10 regardless of quiete high odds. Sideplays: Acca: Almagro+Tipsarevic+Benneteau+Verdasco+Bautista @4,90 3/10 Acca: Almagro+ Tipsarevic+Benneteau+ Verdasco+ Lopez @ 4,70 4/10 Acca: Almagro+ Tipsarevic+Benneteau+Lopez+Bautista @5,52 3/10No idea on the other matches...
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Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals
Ok just hope it is a fair contest because normally such movements mean something... Same with Murray 1000s of € laying him on the outright market @4,5, 4,4 4,3... than he was injured in his first match and withdrew... Gotta be careful nowadays...Its just cause of the name. Softcore tennis punters are all over it. -
Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Is there any reason other than people going on Nadal that makes the Tsonga price rise so much? Backed Tsonga yesterday -2 Games 1,90 and now he is 1,90 for the straight win... Do THEY know something again, or are there just traders @work?
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Re: Tennis - ATP World Tour Finals Tsonga -2Games tb. Nadal @1,909 8/10 pinnacle Normally would laugh about myself placing a bet against Nadal at this price, but this time i see value on the frenchman nontheless. Prices are falling rapidly everywhere and that is justified IMO. Nadal was awfully poor against Fish maybe due to his food poisoning but still and against Fed. he was awful again. Fed played superbly but only because Nadal allowed it. Serve had no power an lenght, the groundstrokes, especially backhand were inside the halfcourt very often, no all so needed power in the spaniards game. I don´t care what the real reason is that he plays so poor atm, but only that it IS the case. If there wont be a completely other NADAL by tomorrow Tsonga with powerfull strokes and serve will hit trough him more often than not and beat that handicap easily. Won´t expekt a total crush like in the fed game, but can see a 6-3 6-4 or 6-4 7-5 in Tsonga´s favour...
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October I also think Haider-Maurer can even win it. Should be a tight contest with 7/6 7/5s involved. +4,5 Games is a huge handicap given this matchup, but with one or two cointoss sets i would even try a mixture of +Games, Over and the straight win for AHM. I mean how could Anderson be more then 65% favourite in this match. Odds about 4,5 for Haider-Maurer are way too high IMO..
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Re: Tennis - 12-18 September
Paszek is slightly injured on her stomach mucle, maybe thats the reason for watson being favorite. http://www.tennisnet.com/oesterreich/welttennis/damen/Matchbaelle-abgewehrt-Paszek-erkaempft-zehnten-Quebec-Sieg-in-Serie/2780312 for those of you who are familiar with germanQuebec City, Friday Paszek > Watson. 2.20 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Not sure I can agree with Watson being rated as favorite in this match. Paszek is a defending champion and I really like her fighting qualities. She's playing too many 3-set matches which is a negative thing but her fitness is quite good. Her defense is a bit better than that of Watson's and I don't think Watson will take a lot of encouragement from their only H2H match which was in Estoril this year. Watson managed to win just 3 games going down without much of a chance (0-6, 3-6). -
Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hi folks have been reading here a while and want to share some tips from time to time. There are very skilled people around with perfekt write ups, so i hope i can cuntribute something. Have some side-tips with low stakes on Sevastova, Stakhovsky, Almagro Over 40,5 Games, Troicki Over 36,5 Games, Goerges, Schiavone -3,5 Games; All 2-3/10 and have been explained better by others i think. Schiavone will step up i think and Sharapova is just so poor that she has to be opposed at this price against a decent player. Ljubo/Almagro is bound to go the distance and i think Troicki will give Djoko a good fight, if Djoko can lose a set to Dodig, he can also against Troicki. Stakhovsky seems to get solid by time and Robredo was fortunate with the draw so far, think he will go out today. Manesieva had a good run and is dangerous, but Sevastova is in the Top 50 for some reason and is more prooven at this level. But my main tip where i invest 10/10 is Nisikori vs. Verdasco I played: Nisikori win @2,88 5/10 Nishikori to win 1st set @2,49 4/10 Nishikori to win 3:0 @7,75 0,50/10 Nisikori to win 3:1@6,35 0,50/10 Reason: I watched both matches of both players so far and have to say that Nisikori strikes the ball clean with few errors. He won easily against Mayer, not because Mayer was so bad, but because Nisikori was so good. He plays a Forehand winner whereever he wants to play it. cross or longline. Serve is solid and cant be attacked constantly, backhand also solid, few errors and good dept. Nearly no up and downs, the 6/0 set against Mayer was because all or nothing mood of the german who didn´t know what to do after 2 "normal" sets of playing. Verdasco had an easy warmup against an woefull Schüttler and was quite lucky that Tipsa collapsed after a 2-0 lead. Verdasco´s game is full of errors and i can´t see him win rallies constantly against Nishikori. In my opinion Verdasco will start crappy as always with Nishikori winning the first and maybe also the second set, the Verdasco will come up and try turn the match around. Thats why i have quiet a high stake on the first set win of Kei, i just think that Verdasco is the most vulnerable in the beginning. Overall i think the match is 50/50. It will depend, whenether Kei can win the first 2 sets, the he will win it somehow, if he only wins the first and loses the second i see slight advantages with Verdasco, but still 2,88 is a massive price to find out. Greetz Arantxa
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Re: Tennis - 1-7 November
I think you confuse World Rankings and World Tour Finals. For the World Tour Finals it doesnt matter how many points you have to defend, because it is a Year-to-date Ranking. So if e.g. Verdasco wins Valencia he will still get 500 Points for the World Tour Finals Ranking, no matter how he fared last year. You only have to defend Points for the 52-weeks World Ranking, which is not the same.... Always a good approach to use players motivation to bet though... Greetz ArantxaMy gambling system is based on motivation and there is an abundance of it this week as players battle it out for the WTF. The money you win for participating is enough to guarantee players will give their all, so this is the qualifications’ line up Onto the main movers. Fernando Verdasco initially lost a spot in the World Tour Finals, from 7th to 9th, and the situaton is looking increasingly perilous for the Spaniard. His main rivals for the 7th/8th spot, Ferrer and Roddick, have initially overtaken him and have nothing to defend for neither this week norParis Valencia Paris Valencia Paris Vienna Paris Valencia -
Re: Tennis - Australian Open Think i will never again touch WTA tennis, such a fuc*** bad performance, i have never seen something so demotivated and bad before... Jankovic:puke:puke:puke
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open
Well, i couldn´t see Korolev winning against Berdych and he still won. And i can´t see Kohlschreiber winning also but if his odds would be @10000 you would see me sticking in a fiver, just in case.....:dude Well if i think over it, you could then see me sticking in one k and flying to Australia, hurting Nadals knee or something....:lol:lol MfG ArantxaIn my eyes' date= value is only value if you think the selection is going to win. As much as I like the odds, I just can't see Korolev winning. Good luck, Atko -
Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi, this for tonight. Tried to avoid the handicaps as much as possible... Henin tb. Kleybanova+ Jankovic tb. Bondarenko ~@1,60 10/10 Henin has played a class match against Dementieva and will be surprised how easy it is against Kleybanova. Jankovic has 8-0 H2H and 7 times 2-0, so she knows what to do obviously.... Monfils to win 3-0 @3,54 5/10 and 3-1 @3,92 2/10 pin As i already mentioned i can´t think of more than a set for Isner here, despite their close meetings in the past. Isner admitted to be a bit tired already, have much fun against Monfils then....:lol Kuznetsowa Under 18 Games @1,84 5/10 Kuz a class ahead and i learned yesterday that the classy girls nearly always beat the handicap... Vinci tb. Kirilenko @3,22 4/10 Can´t see much between the two.... value Gonzo to win 3-1 @3,59 3/10 As Korolew to win a set is quiet low, i back him to win "exactely" one set. Jankovic 2-0 @2,00 4/10 as mentioned above... Henin -6 Games tb. Kleybanova @2,03 4/10 as mentioned above... Wawrinka tb. Cilic @2,08 7/10 For me Wawrinka is favourite in this, has won 3-0 first two rounds, saved energy, while Cilic did play realy poor against Tomic, no ideas or variation... Good luck:cheers
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open
Final states: Will stick to match bets and "to win a set bets" from now on, unbelievable blow on the handicaps, don´t know where to start... Chiudinelli wins a set 6-3 and still manages to blow +11!! Games from then on, Arvidson has break points to go 5-4 up in the 1st set, loses 6-4 and then 6-1, Lisicki even LOSES to Brianti wtf, Benesova,Hajek and Sergeyev..no comment... Seems that i don´t have the feeling for handicaps.... Match bets: Staked: 33,50 units Profit: 12,50 units ROI: 37% Handicap bets: Staked: 85,00 Loss: -23,25 units ROI: -27,35%Hi folks, after a fantastic night yesterday i have quiet a bit in tonight as well. No time to explain every pick into detail, but had my thoughts over the day and jumped onto the handicap lines at pinnacle as soon as they were out. Impossible to post actual prices as they change every 2 minutes, but i will post the prices as i got them, no matter if they are higher, equal or lower than the actual. Think it will level up anyway.... All odds from pinnacle.... ATP Match bets: Baghdatis tb. Ferrer @1,80 5/10 :ok Going against Ferrer here is not easy but his form is nothing special at the moment, whereas Baghdatis looks good in "his" slam. Will surely be supported by his partisan crowd again and with his solid strokes and good serving he should avoid too much of the 35+ strokes rallies, which is the only plus one can see with Ferrer.... Almagro tb. Becker @1,769 7/10 :ok Almagro is the better tennis player no doubt and also has a decent serve to boot, so he should have no problem with an average becker. I think Almagro´s price is so high, because he lost badly to Gicquel, but i saw this match and he gave 10% at best, just wanting some 1st round price money and a good hit heading for the aussie open. This is real business here.... Haas tb. Tipsarevic @1,855 3/10 :ok Maybe one to avoid, but taking small stakes here as i see a bit of value in the german who is superior slam player... Falla tb. Granollers Puyol @2,10 6,5/10 :ok Hmm what would this prices have been, if they played first round? Söderling beat himself and Falla impressed me with his quallies form late last year. Has more hardcourt pedigree for me and except a mentaly ill Söderling, Granollers hasn´t beaten anybody of note on hard.... Koubek tb. Dodig @1,80 3/10 :ok Both of them could only dream of such an opponent heading into a second roud of a slam, but i think Koubek can wear Dodig down with his dritballer style he has the fitness advantage also and Dodig is no sort of a talent at 25 years of age... Berrer tb. Istomin @1,704 6/10 :@ Well its time to trust Berrer finally who has a great run, serving well and no sign of a letdown yet.... Robert tb. Montanes @2,26 3/10 :@ 2-0 sets up... Will side with the hard surface player here. Montanes the slightly better player overall and Robert with fine hard results late. Hard to split what should be 50/50 a classic. Handicaps and WTA: As nothing sticks out to me matchwise with the WTA i have done a few handicaps. Just a one sentence each, as this is getting long.... S. Williams -6,5 Games tb.Kvitova @1,916 5/10 :ok Williams has a habit of destroying her opponents and withn her fitness a little bit dodgy she will look to shorten this as much as possible... Lisicki -6 Games tb. Brianti @1,847 6/10 :wall even manages to lose.... Lisicki with much more firepower, can see a 6-1 or 6-0 set, this should be easily through... Barrois -Stosur over 19,5 Games @1,926 5/10 :ok Has already been discussed, Stosur not in good form, Barrois likes the big stage, this will be close, probably 3 sets with Stosur edging it in the end.. Benesova +5 Games tb. Zvonereva @2,12 4/10 :@ Lot of work for Vera here i think, Benesova is decent serving and should keep it close enough... Goerges+6,5 Games tb. Wozniacki @1,877 7/10 :@ I like Goerges style of play a lot, she is talented i think and 6,5 games is a lot of wood.... Peer - 5 Games tb. Pironkova @1,877 6/10 :ok Same as yesterday, Pironkova a bit togher nut to crack, but still its ladies tennis and she could as well fall apart if she loses the first set. Maybe a 7-5 6-1 or 6-4 6-1.... Arvidson+ 5 Games tb.Hantuchova @1,943 10/10 :wall Max stake for me here, Hantuchova is bad at the moment, serving not like it is her standard, Arvidson digs deep and this could as well be major upset here, but i like the safer bets and a high strike rate, so this is the way to go for me... Radwanka -5,5 Games tb. Kudryavtseva @1,84 7/10 :ok Radwanska can be ruthless at times and she has the stable game to just edge every game. See a hard blow for the russian girl here... Bammer + 6 Games tb. V. Williams @2 3/10 :zzzpush Bammer is a fighter and will enjoy the athmosphere and i think she will grind out 7 Games... low stakes, as it is against the Williams clan though... and a few from the ATP: Chiudinelli +8 Games tb. Djokovic @1,775 8/10 :@ Lot of wood again, Djoko not in the best form and early in the slams he often likes to just edge it with minimum effort.... Hewitt -7,5 Games tb. Young @1,87 6/10 :ok Hewitt makes short process of his opponents if they have no weapon to hurt him and that is exactely how i see Young, no weapons, just a worse Hewitt... Hajek +7,5 Games tb. Youzhny @1,962 6/10 :@ Hajek is serving decent enough to stay in this and Youzhny, although he made a fine game versus Gasquet, is well capable of a letdown in one set, which will be enough i think... Tsonga -6,5 Games tb. Dent @1,794 4/10 :ok Both are serving well normally, but i can see Dent backing down in one set, if a break down and this should be enough... eg. 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-4 Tsonga... Sergeyev +8,5 Games tb. Verdasco @2 5/10 :@ Surely Verdasco is the better player here, but Sergeyev is very match fit and served pretty well until this stage. Verdasco found it hard enough to break and one dimensional Carsten Ball, so this will be close enough i think... Kubot - Giraldo OVER 39,5 Games @1,885 6/10 :@ This has a thriller written all over it, Match odds are right with Kubot a slight favourite, but Giraldo took out a slam consistent Robredo impressingly so tight 4 or 5 sets for me... Lot of wood from me :eek:loon:eek too but :hope it won´t be my worst day in history.... Good luck and good games:cheers MfG Arantxa -
Re: Tennis - Australian Open
Looks like bet365 have better handicaps sometimes, have to look at those next time.... Have one question regarding the Over Games market: Say you have an outsider who you think could stay in the match, but not win it, maybe like barrois or arvidson If you have some kind of handicap on the outsider like +5 Games or Over 19,5 Games, which one do you normally get on?? Do you evaluate match per match or do you have a rule to go by?? The difference is obvious, if one set goes to 5-5 the over is normally no problem, with a more balanced scoreline like 6-3 6-3 the handicap is better. I often stick with the handicap, because i saw me going for over and then the outsider wins 6-3 6-2 with Under Score... Anybody is invited to share his/her view regarding this topic.... Good luck with your bets....:drums MfG Arantxagood work aranxta! i agrre with you on most of those bets! here are the rest of my bets: 1) stephanie voegele plus 7.5 games against azareanka 8-11 bet365 obviously azarenka has a fierce reputation for hammering lesser opponents in early rounds of grand slams and it's well-earned.but voegele is a talented determined youngster who battled to a great victory over melinda czink who is no slouchas henin could vouch for.i think she can provide azarenka with a decent test and 7.5 games is too much of a handicap in my opinion.2pts 2)kristina barrois plus 5.5 games against stosur at 8-11 bet365. i also think the over 19 games is a good bet. barrois is a tricky opponent and a good fighter and stosur is hardly firing on all cylinders at the moment 2pts 3)radwanska versus kudraytseva over 19.5 games at evens bet365. i also like the 5.5 handicap bet on alla. i saw her against oudin and she came back from the dead. she was 2-6,3-5 15-40 down and won 7-5 in the fifth.and the thing is oudin didnt do a whole lot wrong.she didnt choke.alla just stepped it up and played great and served great.she is much more consistent from the back of the court now and can definately compete with anyone stroke for stroke. radwanska is a bit over-rated anyway i think.just hope alla can rediscover her form and isnt too nervous(she's struggled with this in the past)1pt might even be a shock!! 4)lisicki minus 5.5 games against brianti 4-5 bet365 brianti is average and lisicki is hungry and hitting the ball well and 5.5 games isn't really that big a handicap in the womens game when there is such a gulf in class. 5)ferrer versus bagdathis over 38.5 games bet365 at 5-6 ferrer is just going to be solid and not give away free points. while marcos is going to have his periods of inspiration and his usual dips.i expect 4 sets could cover this.1pt 6)sergeyev versus verdasco plus 9.5 games 4-6 bet365 sergeyev qualified impressively and backed it up while beating dudi sela. he appears to have a good serve while returning isn't fernandos strength(though hardly a weakness). it's a massive handicap and even though the over 28 games night be better bet as fernando could lose a tie-break but win the next set 6-0 i'm gonna take a punt on the handicap 1pt 7)serena williams versus kvitova over 17.5 at 8-11 kvitova beat safina at the us open last year and almost beat wickmayer to qualify for the quarters of d us. she has patches of woeful form but the fact she beat craybas in straights is encouraging. she's a lefty with powerful strokes and she's capable of winning games on her terms (all too often inferior players let serena bully them) and i think she can be competitive in at least one set) 2pts 8)chuidinelli plus 8.5 versus djokovic this is 8-11 by the way. maybe the over 28 games is a better bet. but novak isn't firing on all cylinders and marco is a battler who never gives up and i think he can cover it. he also can play(beat youzny in us open last year and gave davydenko a good match. 1pt 9) venus williams versus bammer under 18.5 games at 5-6 venus hammered safarova in round one which is an ominous sign for bammer i think. bammer was lucky to get an easy first round draw and i dont think she's in great form at the moment. i like her as a player she is smart with good court savy and a fighter but she saves her best tennis for the summer. the last 3 years she has been on the end of some hammerings in the aussie open. she has two kids and she's gettin on so she cant be in the best form always. i see venus overwhelming her with her powerplay and an easy victory in under 19 games. 1pt 10)davydenkp versus marchenko under 27.5 games at evens bet365 davydenko is just in awesome form right now and i see a similar scoreline against rising star marchenko as the one against kindlamnn who didnt even play poorly 1pt 11) carla suarez navarro to beat petkovic at evens with paddypowers petkovic has a lot of talent and is one for the future but she's still unproven at this level and i'm going to go with the proven grand slam performer carla. a quarterfinalist last year here(beating venus on the way) and a quarterfinalist at the french(and she is still improving.she has a big match temperment and there are still question marks over petkovic who lost to kerber in the first round of the last grand slam the us open.1pt 12) hantuchova versus arvidson over 19.5 games at 5-6 powers arvidsson is playing very solid and had a good win over the erratic jarmila groth.i can see her make this one competitive....it might even go to 3 sets but i think hantu will win and she might even win a set 6-1 or 6-2. 1pt 13) almagro versus becker over 38.5 games at 5-6 bet365 i think almagro will win this by the way but he never makes it easy for himself. his last 4 first and second round matches at slam have all went 2 five sets(a lot of marathons he beat monaco 8-6 and beck 9-7 in the final set at wimby and he beat mallise 8-6 in 5th two days ago.so he has developed a love for the battle and steelness he a few years ago.he can be up and down though and becker has his hot streaks and is at least good for a set and i;m sure there'll be a tiebreaker also. 1pt -
Re: Tennis - Australian Open Forgot those 2 matches... Monfils tb. Isner @1,521 10/10 Horror matchup for John Isner. Good returner and one of the best counter players in the world, will get plenty of balls back and absolutely spank him from the back of the court. If Isner is not serving 97% of first serves, he will have no chance here..... Karlovic tb. Ljubicic @1,80 5/10 If Karlovic is starting to win sets with 6-3 or 6-4 scoreline you know that you can easiliy back him. Broke Stepanek a few times so will take care of Ljubo in 4 i think...
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi folks, after a fantastic night yesterday i have quiet a bit in tonight as well. No time to explain every pick into detail, but had my thoughts over the day and jumped onto the handicap lines at pinnacle as soon as they were out. Impossible to post actual prices as they change every 2 minutes, but i will post the prices as i got them, no matter if they are higher, equal or lower than the actual. Think it will level up anyway.... All odds from pinnacle.... ATP Match bets: Baghdatis tb. Ferrer @1,80 5/10 Going against Ferrer here is not easy but his form is nothing special at the moment, whereas Baghdatis looks good in "his" slam. Will surely be supported by his partisan crowd again and with his solid strokes and good serving he should avoid too much of the 35+ strokes rallies, which is the only plus one can see with Ferrer.... Almagro tb. Becker @1,769 7/10 Almagro is the better tennis player no doubt and also has a decent serve to boot, so he should have no problem with an average becker. I think Almagro´s price is so high, because he lost badly to Gicquel, but i saw this match and he gave 10% at best, just wanting some 1st round price money and a good hit heading for the aussie open. This is real business here.... Haas tb. Tipsarevic @1,855 3/10 Maybe one to avoid, but taking small stakes here as i see a bit of value in the german who is superior slam player... Falla tb. Granollers Puyol @2,10 6,5/10 Hmm what would this prices have been, if they played first round? Söderling beat himself and Falla impressed me with his quallies form late last year. Has more hardcourt pedigree for me and except a mentaly ill Söderling, Granollers hasn´t beaten anybody of note on hard.... Koubek tb. Dodig @1,80 3/10 Both of them could only dream of such an opponent heading into a second roud of a slam, but i think Koubek can wear Dodig down with his dritballer style he has the fitness advantage also and Dodig is no sort of a talent at 25 years of age... Berrer tb. Istomin @1,704 6/10 Well its time to trust Berrer finally who has a great run, serving well and no sign of a letdown yet.... Robert tb. Montanes @2,26 3/10 Will side with the hard surface player here. Montanes the slightly better player overall and Robert with fine hard results late. Hard to split what should be 50/50 a classic. Handicaps and WTA: As nothing sticks out to me matchwise with the WTA i have done a few handicaps. Just a one sentence each, as this is getting long.... S. Williams -6,5 Games tb.Kvitova @1,916 5/10 Williams has a habit of destroying her opponents and withn her fitness a little bit dodgy she will look to shorten this as much as possible... Lisicki -6 Games tb. Brianti @1,847 6/10 Lisicki with much more firepower, can see a 6-1 or 6-0 set, this should be easily through... Barrois -Stosur over 19,5 Games @1,926 5/10 Has already been discussed, Stosur not in good form, Barrois likes the big stage, this will be close, probably 3 sets with Stosur edging it in the end.. Benesova +5 Games tb. Zvonereva @2,12 4/10 Lot of work for Vera here i think, Benesova is decent serving and should keep it close enough... Goerges+6,5 Games tb. Wozniacki @1,877 7/10 I like Goerges style of play a lot, she is talented i think and 6,5 games is a lot of wood.... Peer - 5 Games tb. Pironkova @1,877 6/10 Same as yesterday, Pironkova a bit togher nut to crack, but still its ladies tennis and she could as well fall apart if she loses the first set. Maybe a 7-5 6-1 or 6-4 6-1.... Arvidson+ 5 Games tb.Hantuchova @1,943 10/10 Max stake for me here, Hantuchova is bad at the moment, serving not like it is her standard, Arvidson digs deep and this could as well be major upset here, but i like the safer bets and a high strike rate, so this is the way to go for me... Radwanka -5,5 Games tb. Kudryavtseva @1,84 7/10 Radwanska can be ruthless at times and she has the stable game to just edge every game. See a hard blow for the russian girl here... Bammer + 6 Games tb. V. Williams @2 3/10 Bammer is a fighter and will enjoy the athmosphere and i think she will grind out 7 Games... low stakes, as it is against the Williams clan though... and a few from the ATP: Chiudinelli +8 Games tb. Djokovic @1,775 8/10 Lot of wood again, Djoko not in the best form and early in the slams he often likes to just edge it with minimum effort.... Hewitt -7,5 Games tb. Young @1,87 6/10 Hewitt makes short process of his opponents if they have no weapon to hurt him and that is exactely how i see Young, no weapons, just a worse Hewitt... Hajek +7,5 Games tb. Youzhny @1,962 6/10 Hajek is serving decent enough to stay in this and Youzhny, although he made a fine game versus Gasquet, is well capable of a letdown in one set, which will be enough i think... Tsonga -6,5 Games tb. Dent @1,794 4/10 Both are serving well normally, but i can see Dent backing down in one set, if a break down and this should be enough... eg. 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-4 Tsonga... Sergeyev +8,5 Games tb. Verdasco @2 5/10 Surely Verdasco is the better player here, but Sergeyev is very match fit and served pretty well until this stage. Verdasco found it hard enough to break and one dimensional Carsten Ball, so this will be close enough i think... Kubot - Giraldo OVER 39,5 Games @1,885 6/10 This has a thriller written all over it, Match odds are right with Kubot a slight favourite, but Giraldo took out a slam consistent Robredo impressingly so tight 4 or 5 sets for me... Lot of wood from me :eek:loon:eek too but :hope it won´t be my worst day in history.... Good luck and good games:cheers MfG Arantxa
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open
Blake lost 8-10 in the decider, was worth the 4 units though... Going 11-4 with 4-0 with the main picks all won, good day:cheers Should have bet on the monfils scoreline, would have made a fortune...Hi folks these are my tips for tonight, keeping reasoning short and sharp, cause many tips, some reasons have already been given... Main bets: Blake to win a set @1,625 pin 9/10 :nana Blake for me is too inconsistent to go for a straight win, so choosing the safe option here. Del Potro is not at his best at the moment and lost a set to Russel so losing a set to Blake would be no surprise. Blake served well against clement which is curical to be able to stick with del potro. Peer -5,5 Games tb. Hrdecka @1,862 pin 8/10:nana Peer is firing at the moment the likes of Kirilenko,Errani, Dokic,Rybarikova by this margin so i see no reason why she can´t do the same with Hrdecka. Koroloev to win a set vs. Berdych @1,714 8/10:nana Berdych is in good form and i have no real doubt that he will pull through against Korolev but the Russian/Kazachian is no mug and capable of a high level ( if not for 5 sets, just for 1 or 2 ) and Berdych is also not known for beeing Mr.Constant. Wouldn´t take Games Handicap on Korolev, can see a weird scoreline in this, like 6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6 Berdych or something... Veic +8,5 Games tb. Monfils @1,917 pin 7/10 :nana Monfils is not known for blowing somebody of the court, Veic surely is 110% motivated at this stage in a slam and will fight till the end. Can see a similar scoreline like Monfils´ first round ( 6-4 6-4 6-4 ).:eek Have also taken smaller bets ( 2-3 points ) on Grabin:ok, Date:@, Wickmayer:ok, Zheng:ok, Serra:ok, Karlovic:ok, King:@, Cohen-Aloro+7,5:@, Wawrinka 3-0:ok, Isner 3-0:ok; Good luck and good games :cheers:beer MfG Arantxa -
Re: Tennis - Australian Open
Think i will add a 4/10 on Blake @3,95 to my list. Reasons are enough and in the outright market a few quids want to get rid of del potro while nobody wants to buy him, what makes me a little bit suspicious..... Peer won 6/7 6/2 6/1 easily beating the handicap despite losing a set:loon ITS WOMENS TENNIS, surely nobody can ever predict it...just have to make educated guesses....Hi folks these are my tips for tonight, keeping reasoning short and sharp, cause many tips, some reasons have already been given... Main bets: Blake to win a set @1,625 pin 9/10 Blake for me is too inconsistent to go for a straight win, so choosing the safe option here. Del Potro is not at his best at the moment and lost a set to Russel so losing a set to Blake would be no surprise. Blake served well against clement which is curical to be able to stick with del potro. Peer -5,5 Games tb. Hrdecka @1,862 pin 8/10 Peer is firing at the moment the likes of Kirilenko,Errani, Dokic,Rybarikova by this margin so i see no reason why she can´t do the same with Hrdecka. Koroloev to win a set vs. Berdych @1,714 8/10 Berdych is in good form and i have no real doubt that he will pull through against Korolev but the Russian/Kazachian is no mug and capable of a high level ( if not for 5 sets, just for 1 or 2 ) and Berdych is also not known for beeing Mr.Constant. Wouldn´t take Games Handicap on Korolev, can see a weird scoreline in this, like 6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6 Berdych or something... Veic +8,5 Games tb. Monfils @1,917 pin 7/10 Monfils is not known for blowing somebody of the court, Veic surely is 110% motivated at this stage in a slam and will fight till the end. Can see a similar scoreline like Monfils´ first round ( 6-4 6-4 6-4 ). Have also taken smaller bets ( 2-3 points ) on Grabin, Date, Wickmayer, Zheng, Serra, Karlovic, King, Cohen-Aloro+7,5, Wawrinka 3-0, Isner 3-0; Good luck and good games :cheers:beer MfG Arantxa -
Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Adding one in WTA Tournament: Bartoli @131 5 Dimes 1,5/10 Units MfG Arantxa
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi folks these are my tips for tonight, keeping reasoning short and sharp, cause many tips, some reasons have already been given... Main bets: Blake to win a set @1,625 pin 9/10 Blake for me is too inconsistent to go for a straight win, so choosing the safe option here. Del Potro is not at his best at the moment and lost a set to Russel so losing a set to Blake would be no surprise. Blake served well against clement which is curical to be able to stick with del potro. Peer -5,5 Games tb. Hrdecka @1,862 pin 8/10 Peer is firing at the moment the likes of Kirilenko,Errani, Dokic,Rybarikova by this margin so i see no reason why she can´t do the same with Hrdecka. Koroloev to win a set vs. Berdych @1,714 8/10 Berdych is in good form and i have no real doubt that he will pull through against Korolev but the Russian/Kazachian is no mug and capable of a high level ( if not for 5 sets, just for 1 or 2 ) and Berdych is also not known for beeing Mr.Constant. Wouldn´t take Games Handicap on Korolev, can see a weird scoreline in this, like 6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6 Berdych or something... Veic +8,5 Games tb. Monfils @1,917 pin 7/10 Monfils is not known for blowing somebody of the court, Veic surely is 110% motivated at this stage in a slam and will fight till the end. Can see a similar scoreline like Monfils´ first round ( 6-4 6-4 6-4 ). Have also taken smaller bets ( 2-3 points ) on Grabin, Date, Wickmayer, Zheng, Serra, Karlovic, King, Cohen-Aloro+7,5, Wawrinka 3-0, Isner 3-0; Good luck and good games :cheers:beer MfG Arantxa
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Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Bank 87,00 ATP Australien Open: Murray 6/10 @8,00 Betfair Davydenko 6/10 @14,00 Betfair Verdasco 3/10 @51 5Dimes Söderling 3/10 @50 Betfair Gasquet 1,5/10 @240 Betfair Gonzalez 1,5/10 @201 5Dimes WTA Australien Open: Clijsters 13/10 @4,70 Betfair Henin 6/10 @8,20 Betfair Wozniacki 4/10 @25 Expekt Lisicki 2/10 @110 Betfair Bank: 87,00 Staked: 46,00 Total Staked: 63,00 Profit: 0 Loss: 13 Return: -13,00 ROI: -100% Yield: -13% Odds at the time of posting, overbet Clijsters a bit, but terrific value IMO and want to be balanced on winnings with Henin and Clijsters... Personally i took Davydenko before the draw and after Doha @25, 6/10 hopefully he can repeat his performances of Doha, then he is in there with a shot... Good Luck:cheers
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Re: ATP and WTA Outright System
Just copy&pasted this from the "Other Sports Section" Unfortunately Lisicki has already lost 7/5 in the 3rd and Andreev 7/6 in the 3rd, while Czink went down to Dulko, so this 3 selections are already lost, but i will still count them to start with this thread to stay consistent and honest...:ok To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Profit/Loss -13,00 Units ( Monfils and Nalbi didn´t start ) New Bank: 87,00 Units
Australian Open 2014
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Australian Open 2014 Chardy to win the 3rd Quarter @54 pinnacle 2/10 Of course this is a difficult task, but as many of us mentioned Ferrer is not out of reach these days. After that it will be Janowicz/Mayer which i would see 50/50 if Chardy has the form and boost and indeed beat Ferrer. Would be 54/(3,3*2)= around 8 to beat Berdych or a lesser opponent in the quarters. Berdych looks troubled if someone can make him play in the defense, which is the case with Chardy and his big serve and groundstrokes. If it is not Berdych but Dzumhur/Anderson/Vasselin you can surely trade out very positive... Should have some value.