gazzyg
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Posts posted by gazzyg
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Made it 10th I think Serbia KERCHINGG !!!
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 LOL So did we all get in 11/8 Sweden around Austria / Macedonia LOL C'Mon Serbia Top 10 for a complete sweep of wins
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Hmm some odds over evens Sweden.....I'm targetting around 10 jury's in around Latvia to see what price Sweden 2's I'm in. Lower, well I'll take what I have. LOL lines close bookies slash Swedes......how obvious can they make it OK I'm gonna have to accept they've got it sussed this year and take a huge chunk of Evens for now just in case it doesn't get better.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015
Ooo Serbia plummetting like a stone ..no points in but I reckon that crowd rocking performance has landed us that 7/4 :nanaAt this stage I would say that is your best money maker Serbia Top10 @7/4 go take those bookies money -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Sweden home and hosed.....the algorithm for the voting order says that's who the order is set around...and even then they will know the Swedish win to be confirmed 4 or 5 jury's prior to the end....Russia predicted by organisers to be 2nd but I think one of the others might actually squeak in and push them out to 3rd spot...dunno why just gut feel. Odds on Swedes but with the comp set up for Russia to get ahead early you may find the odd jittery bookie or betfair who will take Sedes back out to 2's then tonk it.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Belgium seem to be dropping in odds every hour (televote leakage I gather) ...now just 4-1 & 5-1 Naa not having that ..not Belgium. I suspect they may have been runner up to Swedes in Semi 2 last night so those in know fancy a top 4 finish. Might just allow Sweden out to close to backable..... Currently 7/4. At 2-1 I think I'll have more Sweden...got more than enough Russia E/W from 20's down
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Ahhhh Russia at 25 Italy closing at 27. Sweden at 10 after Norway 9 and Serbia 8 with Australia 12 (oof congested) Interesting very very interesting LOL [h=2]The running order for the Grand Final[/h]
- Slovenia
- France
- Israel
- Estonia
- United Kingdom
- Armenia
- Lithuania
- Serbia
- Norway
- Sweden
- Cyprus
- Australia
- Belgium
- Austria
- Greece
- Montenegro
- Germany
- Poland
- Latvia
- Romania
- Spain
- Hungary
- Georgia
- Azerbaijan
- Russia
- Albania
- Italy
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Yes Sweden drawn 1st half....Final order should be decided late tonight ~2am and available in the morning. That should provide the final peice of the puzzle. Eurovision have an algorithm which takes the Semi voting and models a predicted result then orders the performance and voting order to try to maximise the excitement on the night. If you think the bigger bookies don't have the technology to crack that algorithm then you are bonkers lol. Norway doing well tonight may split Scandinavian votes
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Fair enough Nox ..apologies wasn't meant to be argumentative we each have our own method we think is most productive. I like win odds rather than sub 3.00 odds on Top5/10 position and haven't felt it's been that tricky to do so in recent times. Thanks for the initial postings ...got me checking early ....and the very best of luck to you with all of them. :hope
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Just a teeny bit more info if I may....1st half acts. Only 4 have won in donkeys ( lots of years) They've in the main overcome that by being big phenomenum acts. Austria's Conchita, Israel's Dana & Ruslana's hude stage dance theme. This year looks pretty tame in comparison and a song judged year means 1st half looks bad news.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015
Bilan favourite Ryback favourite Euphoria favourite Teardrops favourite I'm really not having a pop Nox but you don't have to go looking for opportunities that maybe aren't there when the obvious win is there in front of your face. Sometimes we accept the bookies can see this as well as us and we take the best odds and win. Many years the favouritism will be justified the aren't complete mugs ...every few years we may unearth the odd gem and they get it way wrong like 2007 20-1 Serbia's Molitva and last year 40-1 Austria. No need to make it hard for ourselves. You mentioned Austria...well done...yes some of us realised the bookies had that one wrong very early lol Here's my post from 2014 so I don't just go for the favouritesBetting just on the favorites you will receive negative yeldTaa Daaaaaaaa !!!! :rollin Sorry I'd notice the stuff about "too risky" but struggled to see why you would have such specific %bankroll and particular bookie and odds available only to say but I'm not actually doing that. Good luck though.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Really struggling to follow your logic now Nox.
Demark not qualifying wasn’t a surprise? 3 of your own picks Macedonia, Netherlands & Finland to qualify not doing so wasn’t a surprise to you…if it wasn’t why were you backing them...these 3 had 9% of your bankroll on them ? From what I see you are backing... Greece to qualify (4%) Top 10 (1%) Macedonia to qualify (1%) Netherlands to qualify (2%) Finland to Qualify (5%) Top 10(1%) Malta to qualify (6%) Top 10 (3%) Ireland to qualify (6%) Top 10 (2%) Top 5 (1%) Czech to qualify (2%) Top 10 (1%) Slovenia to qualify (10%) Top 10 (2%) Sweden Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (10%) Italy Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (3%) Germany Top 10 (2%) ...but also " this year Estonia has a good chance" so that's 12 countries ! well 9 now that 3 of them have failed to progress. Spreading out your bets like that is going to really damage your chances of getting a decent win.all favorites won, no surprises -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Right the cat is out the bag after Russia's SF-1 win so I'm gonna declare while 4/1 or so is still available. Previous 16's well gone sorry. (4's does mean you get a bet to nothing on E/W as they won't be outside the Top 4) I suspect it may shorten again when they see Sweden's vote is closer than expected on Thursday. Don't think you should look outside those 2 really unless my sneaky outsider in Serbia storms it The format changes in the last few years have all favoured the Bookies unfortunately with the inclusion of 50% juries scoring. I have absolutely no doubt that several will have a good sniff of friendly info from the Jury votes scored from rehearsals. Russia plumetted in odds as Austria did last year after SF win. For me it's once bitten. I honestly didn't see a German win in 2010 with the Big 4's popularity (my one big blemish and money losing year) so I'm not buying Russian unpopularity hindering this one too much. Sweden is a cleverly designed performance...we'll know more Thursday how the little cartoon gimmick is received....I think the bookies may stick with it as fav just from online polls but if you get a spreadsheet sorted of voting order and find the best early place where Sweden may not have had the vote of many of their traditional advantageous countries you may find them eased to near 4's where you can get on E/W and enjoy the rest of the vote knowing you have both covered. A first half draw might ease them out to a backable price. You can't really take 2's Serbia interesting at 35-1 (I'll have some of that E/W but a little because I have fond memories of the 20's I took on Molitva..ahh happy night) At this stage I would say that is your best money maker Serbia Top10 @7/4 go take those bookies money
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014 > May 10th
Thank you ... used to enjoy discussing this here.....always enjoyed Crouch Potato's input....he's been active in Eurovision punting thread since I remember. Like him I've had some good success in the past especially Serbia's Molitva @ 20's and then more obvious and restrictive Bilan Rybak and Euphoria. Lena threw me a bit..had losses that year. Jury system like he said changed things a little but starting to get a feel for it now. Need to get in early though as the bookies clearly are set up to be able to analyse and decipher the Eurovision order/vote plan ..they were on the ball very early last night not giving a sniff of a decent price on live win only markets. Don't visit much these days after being told off for arguing and reporting a racist poster...I thought I kept my responses reasonable and within limits but clearly those in charge are busy and just saw involvement in a protracted argument and decided I should ignore it. I'm assuming the other party was banned soon after because he had been becoming progressively worse when I decided enough was enough. Always come back to see opinion on this though. :DWell done with your punt.:clap -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2014 > May 10th Who'd have thought it? :rollin [ATTACH]5980[/ATTACH] Taa Daaaaaaaa !!!! :rollin
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Re: Weekend > SPL > March 24/25 Motherwell are a stonking bet today generally at 6/5 11/10. With the Rangers trouble Scottish football is only just waking up to the fact that the pandering to the 2 OF teams that has been joked about for as long as I can remember actually appears to have some substance with vested interests at all levels. I don't think the game can risk the potential trouble of a Celtic title win at Ibrox so I think any advantage that can be given to Motherwell will be to avoid this scenario tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: Weekend > SPL > March 24/25 Motherwell are a stonking bet today generally at 6/5 11/10. With the Rangers trouble Scottish football is only just waking up to the fact that the pandering to the 2 OF teams that has been joked about for as long as I can remember actually appears to have some substance with vested interests at all levels. I don't think the game can risk the potential trouble of a Celtic title win at Ibrox so I think any advantage that can be given to Motherwell will be to avoid this scenario tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: Scotland > Weekend > Scottish Cup > 7-8 January
I can't see Dundee United winning this game either unless they head home from Airdrie really quickly :lolDundee United - Kilmalock Live Betting at the 65th minutes, 1-1 the score. I can not see Dundee United winning outright and they will have to fight hard just to draw this game if they are lucky. -
Re: Scotland > Weekend > Scottish Cup > 7-8 January
1-1 and Dundee just missed a penalty...still fancy them at 3-1 rather thanKillie.....saw Killie last week winning but God only knows how as they were absolutely played off the park through out by St Mirren who should have been about 4 up by half time.Dundee v Kilmarnock Kilmarnock to win 6/4 Coral I think there is great value with Killie for tomorrows lunchtime tie as there is a big gulf in class between the 2 sides. In last seasons cup Dundee had went 23 matches unbeaten going into the game and faced Motherwell who were performing very poorly at the time, Motherwell ran out comfortable 4-0 winners at Dens Park that day. Dundee are a far weaker side than they were this time last year and although their form has been pretty decent as of late i would fully expect Kilmarnock to have the beating of them. Kenny Shiels has said pre match that he would be unhappy with a replay and that the pitch should suit his sides style of play which suggests that they'll be going for the victory. -
Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks
Hmmm ? Still confident...7 minutes left in the 4th and 0 2nd half pts for Green Bay and lets face it, next possession the get will be about running the clock down rather than point scoring.......could have been a very very expensive one. LOL you're ok now....Int return for 7 GBwhos got lots of money? GB over 15.5 points 1/50 on Skybet. do me a favour! no way they are not going to even get a field goal in the second half the chicago defense is all over the place. that 25 yard run by rodgers was a joke he had the field all to himself -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2010 betting No winner...except Yaman well done mate So widespread and early that I didn't even get to make any money.....had to place a chunk at 1-10 just to get my other stakes back.....oh well next year. What a disappointment..I can recall and hum just about all the last 10 years songs but this.....Meh!... doubt if I'll even remember it next week.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2010 betting OK Germany romping it :cry What a weak weak song to win
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2010 betting As I said previously make yourself up a spreadsheet with traditionally good scoring countries and you'll find a nice flat spot to back the winner in running. Be prepared to react to the nights events even if it means admitting you got it wrong and you can come out nicely ahead. I did this with my uncertainty in backing a first solo male in donks to win when Bilan won in '08 preferring Carolina of Sweden but it became quite clear early on she was bombing out. Voting order for you if you haven't got it Ireland Germany, Serbia, Albania, Turkey, Croatia, Poland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Finland, Slovenia, Estonia, Russia, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Greece, Iceland, Denmark, France, Spain, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Latvia, Malta, Norway, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belarus, Switzerland, Belgium, United Kingdom, The Netherlands Israel, FYR Macedonia Moldova, Georgia, Sweden Armenia
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2010 betting 1: AZERBAIJAN out to 5/2 ... 11/4 at bet365 now 2: SPAIN 3: NORWAY 4: MOLDOVA 5: CYPRUS 6: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 7: BELGIUM 8: SERBIA 9: BELARUS 10: IRELAND 20 still available 11: GREECE 12: U.K. cert for bottom spot 13: GEORGIA 14: TURKEY 15: ALBANIA 16: ICELAND 17: UKRAINE 18: FRANCE 19: ROMANIA 20: RUSSIA 21: ARMENIA in to 11/2 and falling fast - bugger me 8's at Paddy's! 22: GERMANY in to 3's ??? wtf I guess on draw position...still don't see where the votes will come from 23: PORTUGAL 24: ISRAEL 25: DENMARK Corking draw for Armenia after a dire Russia effort (no matter what the Estonian Jury 12pts think:\) Right I'm happy that winner will come from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Israel or Ireland. I've already got my top 4 Israel and I'm happy that stands a chance. Given all the updated info there's 2 factors deciding my big pre contest plunge One is draw order and the second is the fact that the Jury 1/2 of the scores were decided on the final rehearsal ans news filtering out suggests negatives for both Israel and favourites Azerbaijan. With this in mind I've just gotta go for ARMENIA at 8-1 .....just a stonking E/W bet to nothing with a decent return on a very possible win....honestly grab it quick. (update - hold my hands up here - have this piece wrong as clearly the jury's couldn't decide until tonights rehearsal with all participating countries....Azerbaijan were better than they have been so don't let that inflluence you) Standing by my prediction if looking for bigger odds outsider then Ireland and Greece would be your 2
Eurovision Song Contest 2015
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Cheers Crouchy :D Russian win would have been best result for me but all of it was E/W at over 4's so with that looking safely in the bank early on I focussed on when to get more Sweden as I stupidly kept passing over the 6/4 & 7/4 in the lead up thinking that was too much risk for too short a price. Was delighted to see them go odds against 4 or 5 juries past halfway when the planned pattern seemed clear. Thought I'd given people a bum steer with the Serbia Top10 but just sneaked in by 2 pts LOL Heart was in my mouth last Georgia vote when Swedes Russians and Italy weren't among the 8,10,12 but thankfully no one came past to pip the Serbs. Good to see some thread activity, thanks for all the opinions Nox - sorry again if I appeared over critical, just like to help fleece the bookies in this one......waste way too much time researching it LOL Same time next year for the year's best earner :clap