** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
LilEagle
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Posts posted by LilEagle
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Re: Australian Open, Men
Event Carlos Moya v Stefan Koubek Selection Stefan Koubek Strength 10/10 Date 14/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Betsafe @ 3.13 (Back) Reasoning Even though Koubek has the tools to beat Moya and was looking good last time they met just recently he somehow managed to blow it away but Im still convinced he can pull it off this time. Neither of Moyas 5 set or left-handed opponent stats look too good so there is a value in the odds. Event Robert Kendrick v Amer Delic Selection Amer Delic Strength 10/10 Date 14/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.80 (Back) Reasoning Excellent offer for Amer Delic in this match. Robert Kendrick havent played for a while Amer Delic qualified to Australian Open so he's familiar with condition. More Amer Delic leads the h2h 5-2 so Kendrick has troubles with Delics playing style. Event Simone Bolelli v Rajeev Ram Selection Rajeev Ram Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.21 (Back) Reasoning Rajeev Ram qualified for Australian Open by beating Udomchoke whos no mug so he's definatly worth a shot at the odds since this is Bolellis first Australian Open and his confidence must be high. Event Donald Young v Michael Berrer Selection Donald Young Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.31 (Back) Reasoning Donald Young is an american talent who still has lot to learn and proof but I trust him more than I trust Berrer since Berrer has nothing more than his powerful serves, so there is excellent value in Young who surely could irritate Berrer with his descent return of serve. Event Arnaud Clement v Rainer Schuettler Selection Rainer Schuettler Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.07 (Back) Reasoning Arnaud Clement has been in really poor form lately and doesnt seem to know how to stop losing so opposing him seems to be a good idea at this odds even when his opponennt is Rainer Schuettler, because I think his opponent still has lot to give. -
Event Alun Jones v Albert Montanes Selection Alun Jones Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.65 (Back) Reasoning Alun Jones is a native and used to the conditions here in Australia. Albert Montanes havent done anything special outside the clay courts and he is only 1-6 in Australian Open and will probably face big problems vs Jones and the support he will get from the crowd. Event Mariano Zabaleta v Peter Luczak Selection Peter Luczak Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.47 (Back) Reasoning Mariano Zabaleta is another clown on this surface and he's also probably looking to get his first round loser check and take first, best flight out of there. Luczak has always done pretty good for his talent here in Australia and I expect him to do so again. Event Hyung-Taik Lee v Chris Guccione Selection Chris Guccione Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.69 (Back) Reasoning Chris Guccione may have lost in the final in Sydney but he played really good all week serving really good. The only thing that cost him the title was in inexperience. Lee isnt know for any great result vs the big-servers so he could struggle yet again. Event Nicolas Almagro v Marin Cilic Selection Marin Cilic Strength 10/10 Date 13/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.11 (Back) Reasoning Nicolas Almagro has lost all three matches he has played in Australian Open and faces another good server in the first round. Marin Cilic, with his good serving has been in good form reaching semi-final twice in recent tournaments he has played so I find a value in his odds. Event Kristof Vliegen v Olivier Patience Selection Kristof Vliegen Strength 10/10 Date 14/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.43 (Back) Reasoning I dont even know what Patience is doing here in Australian Open playing on HC, but his a big clown on this surface losing like every match. I guess he's after some quick losers money and Vliegen shouldnt have too big troubles winning this -
Re: Tennis 7th-12th Jan: Auckland/Hobart/Sydney
Event Gilles Simon v Tomas Berdych Selection Gilles Simon Strength 10/10 Date 08/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.25 (Back) Reasoning 3.25 for a player with Gilles Simons excellent returns of serve is simply too tempting vs a player like Tomas Berdych who gets frustrated too easily when things aint getting his way. Specially when his attempts to hit winners keeps coming back at him. -
Re: Tennis 7th-12th Jan: Auckland/Hobart/Sydney
Event Julien Benneteau v Nicolas Almagro Selection Nicolas Almagro Strength 10/10 Date 08/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 1.65 (Back) Reasoning Julien Benneteau was incredible lucky vs Dudi Sela as his opponent only managed to take advantage of 2 14 breakballs in the 2 set match!! Benneteau will be the better player on the rallies but Almagros excellent serve should grant him lots of free points on this surface and he should be able to create couple of breakpoints thanx to Benneteaus poor 2nd serves. -
Re: Tennis 7th-12th Jan: Auckland/Hobart/Sydney
Event Carlos Moya v Stefan Koubek Selection Stefan Koubek Strength 10/10 Date 07/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Blue Square @ 2.25 (Back) Reasoning Nadal was totally exhausted after the semi final in Chennai vs Moya so there is a risk Moya hasnt fully recovered just yet. With Australian Open so close I think Koubek will be more motivated for this match than Moya. Koubek has won the last two meetings between these two so he is worth a bet. Event Thomas Johansson v Juan Monaco Selection Juan Monaco Strength 10/10 Date 07/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Blue Square @ 2.25 (Back) Reasoning Long trip for Thomas Johansson to get to this tournament so Im not sure how well prepared he is coming into this match. Thomas Johansson has good serves when they really work but Juan Monaco is no mug when it comes to return and he's much more talented than the swede when it comes plenty other stuff so the odds is worth a shot. Event Hyung-Taik Lee v Michael Llodra Selection Hyung-Taik Lee Strength 10/10 Date 07/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back) Reasoning Michael Llodra gets here as the tournament winner in Adelaide so there is a questionmark on his motivation this week. Lee had an early exit last week and will look to bounce back and he has good record vs both net rushers and lefties like Michael Llodra. -
Re: Tennis 7th-12th Jan: Auckland/Hobart/Sydney
Event Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Mario Ancic Selection Juan Carlos Ferrero Strength 10/10 Date 07/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.84 (Back) Reasoning Mario Ancic has been feelin pretty sick according to the rumours and is said to be badly prepared for tonights game. This could be a great opportunity for Juan Carlos Ferrero to start the year positivly after doing pretty good last year, and make a good return from his injury. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th excellent tennis week here on PuntersLounge....hopefully it will continue all year...
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Rafael Nadal vs Mikhail Youzhny Selection Mikhail Youzhny Strength 10/10 Date 06/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.80 (Back) Reasoning Nadal had a very exhausting´semi-final vs Moya and got very close to lose the match as Moya blew four matchpoints in 2nd set tie-break and failed to serve for match in third set. The match took 3 hours and 45 minutes and will give Nadal less than 24 hours to recover wich gives Youzhny a small chance he might take. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th Youzhny is my bet for for now....GL everyone...
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Xavier Malisse vs Mikhail Youzhny Selection Xavier Malisse Strength 10/10 Date 04/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.83 (Back) Reasoning Even though Youzhny has been great on the returns he had been too much up and downs so far and I think that should be a problem vs a Malisse who's injury free and looks to be in great form as he had fun on court with Melzer creating 15 breakpoints. Youzhny will look to defend well but I wonder how long that can work vs the attack waves from Malisse. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Benjamin Becker vs Michael Llodra Selection Michael Llodra Strength 10/10 Date 04/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back) Reasoning Both players have served well all week so far. Llodra beat Korolev thanx to big serving, serving around 65% first serves and winning almost 90% of the points of his first serve. Benjamin Becker is also a good server but I give Llodra slighter advantage in the rallies and in the fact that he's a leftie -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th I was thinking of Ljubicic as well but Kolhscreiber is one of my favorites on the tour so I skipped it...lol
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Stanislas Wawrinka vs Agustin Calleri Selection Agustin Calleri Strength 10/10 Date 03/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.33 (Back) Reasoning Neither of these players impress when it comes to a high first serve % but botch have powerfull first serves. Wawrinka is the more stable from the baseline while Calleri is all about power and looking to finish off soon as possible. Wawrinka had a harder match vs C. Rochus then I thought he would have mostly because of C. Rochus playing excellent return game, another player with excellent return was Calleri vs Lee as he blasted Lees serves off the court. Wawrinka is the favorite thanks to better baseline abilities but I cant ignore the good odds on Calleri whos simply red-hot at the moment. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Shahar Peer vs Dinara Safina Selection Shahar Peer Strength 10/10 Date 02/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.02 (Back) Reasoning Dinara Safina seemed to be having troubles with her physic form during her win vs Penetta with chipping in 10 double-faults and dropped serve serving for the match. Shahar Peer is known for her excellent physic and should be able to wear down a tired Safina if this match becomes a tough one. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Hyung-Taik Lee vs Agustin Calleri Selection Agustin Calleri Strength 10/10 Date 02/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.80 (Back) Reasoning Calleris big hitting style of play got him past thru Robredo even though he didnt post a good 1st serve %. Lee is a great conter-puncher and will look to extend the duells so that he will get more unforced errors out of Calleri but he sometimes tend to have troubles with big hitting players so Calleri shouldnt have much troubles only if he can post a healty 1st serve %. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Michael Russell vs Benjamin Becker Selection Michael Russell Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 1.83 (Back) Reasoning Benjamin Becker won an inconvincing match vs the unknown Australian Robert Smeets despite losing the first set. He managed to turn around things for a 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 win that was much because of Smeets lack of experience because Becker was a little bit shaky on the serves as he only posted 48% first serves. Though he managed to win most of the points behind his first serve. Russell will be much harder task for him as he is a better returner and more experienced then Smeets as he proved when he broke down Del Potro and his service, winning 50% of the points on Del Potros serves and he has beaten Becker before and other hard serving types. Im not confident that Becker has just yet left his poor form from last year so I oppose him once more this week Event Marina Erakovic vs Ashley Harkleroad Selection Ashley Harkleroad Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.55 (Back) Reasoning Ashley Harkleroad had a nice, self-boosting suprise win over french lady Loit much thanx to her better ability to take advantage of her break opportunities compare to Loit. Harkleroad took 6 of 7 breakballs while Loit only took 3 of 7. I dont know much about Erakovic but Harkleroad seems to be the better player in most aspects and with her suprise win she should have enough confidence to take out her opponent. Event Evgeny Korolev vs Michael Llodra Selection Michael Llodra Strength 10/10 Date 02/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.91 (Back) Reasoning Evgeny Korolev has got a great forehand, powerfull like a cannon waiting to blast his opponents of the court, but thats all he has. Beside lack of any other powers he isnt realy any stable type that you can trust so if Llodra can keep his nerves like steel all he has to do is to wait for Korolev to make unforced errors, that will say if the double champion can keep his low. Event Chris Guccione vs Paul-Henri Mathieu Selection Chris Guccione Strength 10/10 Date 02/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 3.25 (Back) Reasoning Chris Guccione had an excellent start of last season and he reach the finals here in Adelaide learning players like Nadal a trick or two when it comes to excellent serving. But then he got injured and the rest of his season was spoiled but he seems to be back yet again after a good display vs the qualifier Odensik winning 88% of the points behind his first serve and blastin 23 aces. Mathiue did what he was expected to do vs Benneteau but his serving was dissapointing at only 50% first serves and he dropped his serve three times and won mnostly because of good return on Benneteaus weak serve, specially his 2nd serves are too weak, almost pathetic sometimes. If Gucci can come up to his great level of serving Mathiue will have much harder time returning and he keeps on serving as bad as last match he could face troubles -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th 1.85?...thats insane low for a clown like Calleri IMO...lol 43% first serves....2nd serves won: 6 of 16 (38%) If he doesnt improve either his first serve % or 2nd serves Robredo will eat him if he starts to focus. Good call on Schlutter by the way...
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Kristof Vliegen vs Marc Gicquel Selection Kristof Vliegen Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.20 (Back) Reasoning Vliegen had a disaster year in 2006 but has done good here in the past, QF 2005 and SF last year so he might see an opportunity to start the year with some optimism while Gicqule aint getting younger or better. Event Agustin Calleri vs Tommy Robredo Selection Agustin Calleri Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.76 (Back) Reasoning Well, Im tired of Robredo robbing me outside the clay courts so this year I'll try to oppose him in some matches he doesnt have too big advantage, even if his opponent is an idiot like Calleri. Event Ernest Gulbis vs Andrey Golubev Selection Ernest Gulbis Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.52 (Back) Reasoning These times last year both players were at the same level but since then Gulbis has improved with Challenger wins and breakthrough on the ATP tour so he seems like at least one level above his opponent. Event Frank Dancevic vs Simone Bolelli Selection Frank Dancevic Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Expekt @ 1.65 (Back) Reasoning If Dancevic can put up a good serve and execute succesfull rushes on the net he should take the egde out of Bolellis flashy and risky play. Event Alejandro Falla vs Jose Acasuso Selection Alejandro Falla Strength 10/10 Date 01/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Blue Square @ 2.00 (Back) Reasoning Jose Acasuso has really suspect moving when it gets to faster surfaces and he will face some troubles against Fallas quick leftie serves. -
Re: Tennis 31st - 6th Mathieu is my bet for tonight, he has teamed up with Mats Wilander for 2008 and will be motivated for sure vs Bennetau who easily cracks under pressure and heat.
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Re: Tennis - Hopman Cup (29 Dec 2007 to 4 Jan 2008) she was up 4-2 in the third set, serving for 5-2 but dropped.... :(
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th Andreev, Smeets, Zverev, Lee, Koubek, Melzer & Molik are bets Ill play tonight and early tomorrow with small stakes...GLE
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Re: Tennis 31st - 6th
Event Lourdes Dominguez Lino vs Julia Schruff Selection Julia Schruff Strength 10/10 Date 30/12/2007 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.51 (Back) Reasoning A qualifier vs a player who hasnt won a match for months and clearly doesnt hold the surface as favorite and it looks like a clear bet. -
Re: Tennis - Hopman Cup (29 Dec 2007 to 4 Jan 2008) I agree but on smaller stakes...good luck everyone
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Re: Tennis - Hopman Cup (29 Dec 2007 to 4 Jan 2008)
Event Juan Ignacio Chela vs Arnaud Clement Selection Juan Ignacio Chela Strength 10/10 Date 30/12/2007 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.71 (Back) Reasoning Its actually too early to play favorites so its a good idea to keep the stakes low. The tournament is played indoors but the surface if not too fast which I feel should suit Chela who's the more patient player of them both and he waits to hit winners while Clements wants to see winners in every ball.
Australian Open, Men
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: Australian Open
Zabaleta hasnt won an ATP HC match for over 2 years...he's a clown IMO