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A few stats for the RBC Heritage from the past 5 years (note there is no cut for this tournament) Odds of previous winners (decimal) * 2024 - Scottie Scheffler 5.5 * 2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick 29.5 * 2022 - Jordan Speith 41 * 2021 - Stewart Cink 101 * 2020 - Webb Simpson 28.5 Round breakdown of the winner over the past 5 seasons (inc ties) R1 R2 R3 Final 2024 Scheffler -2 (T26) -8 (T10) -16 (1st) -19 (1st) 2023 Fitzpatrick -5 (T5) -6 (T18) -14 (1st) -17 (1st) 2022 Speith -2 (T32) -5 (T8) -8 (T9) -13 (1st) 2021 Cink -8 (2nd) -16 (1st) -18 (1st) -19 (1st) 2020 Simpson -6 (T3) -12 (1st) -15 (T1) -22 (1st) Fate of the favourites Odds R1 R2 R3 Final 2024 Scheffler 5.5 -2 (T26) -8 (T10) -16 (1st) -19 (1st) 2023 Scheffler 9.3 -3 (T15) -9 (T2) -11 (T4) -12 (T11) 2022 Morikawa 13.3 -1 (T54) -2 (T34) -4 (T38) -2 (T26) 2021 Johnson 13.3 -1 (T46) -5 (T19) -5 (T36) -10 (T13) 2020 McIlroy 13 +1 (T101) -5 (T45) -10 (T28) -11 (T41) The following have made the shortlist for this week * Justin Thomas win 25/1 top 10 2.65/1 * Sungjae Im win 45/1 top 10 4/1 * Aaron Rai win 59/1 top 10 3.9/1 * Sahith Theegala win 89/1 top 10 6.6/1 * Ryo Hisatsune win 209/1 top 10 10.5/1 All prices Betfair Good luck on your bets this week

This is a brilliant idea With the range of views and perspectives on the forum, a central resource with the combined views and thoughts will prove to be invaluable Maybe we can pick one of the majors later this year or one of the tournaments in the final months of the year to set up a trial spreadsheet

A couple of useful sites I use are Data Golf and Golf Stats There is a wealth of information accessible on both sites, not sure how easy it would be to download the data onto a local device Stats cover both historical and events live

Great to see Rory winning his slam in a thrilling final day! First golf winners bet for 2025, feels like it's been longer but glad to have had the Masters for the first win of this year

Agree, the 2 ball play looks a safer approach than opting for and opening a new bet on Rory on the final day.

Rory recovered well after his 2 double bogeys in round 1. But the threat of a collapse is unfortunately always lingering with Rory. As you say, hopefully experience will see him build on his 2nd and 3rd round progress

McIlroy holds a 2 shot lead over DeChambeau heading into the final day. Current odds are pricing up with McIlroy at 1.61, DeChambeau at 3.85 with the field at 22+ Recent history suggests the winner is likely to come from the pair at the top and the final day is set to be a exciting close to the first major of 2025 Stats from recent years on round 3 and final day leaders * 2024 - At the end of round 3 - Scheffler closed with -7 and a 1 shot lead over Morikawa and 2 shot lead over Homa. Scheffler shot -4 on the final day for a final of -11, 4 shots ahead of Aberg * 2023 - At the end of round 3 - Koepka closed with -11 and a 2 shot lead over Rahm and 3 shot lead over Hovland. Koepka shot +3 on the final day and Raham -3 with Rahm winning with a final of -12 * 2022 - At the end of round 3 - Scheffler closed with -9 and a 1 shot lead over Smith and 5 shot lead over Im. Scheffler shot -1 on the final day for a final of -10, 3 shots ahead of McIlroy * 2021 - At the end of round 3 - Matsuyama closed with -11 and a 4 shot lead over Zalatoris, Schauffele and Leishman. Matsuyama shot +1 on the final day for a final of -10, 1 shot ahead of Zalatoris * 2020 - At the end of round 3 - Johnson with -16 and a 4 shot lead over Smith, Im and Anger. Johnson shot -4 on the final day for a final of -20, 5 shots ahead of Smith and Im * 2019 - At the end of round 3 - Molinari closed with -13 and a 2 shot lead over Woods and Finau. Woods shot -2 on the final day for a final of -13, 1 shot ahead of Koepka, Johnson and Schauffele

With Rose leading by 1 shot, 7 golfers within 3 shots and 10 golfers within 4 shots - the betting at the top of the market has consolidated between McIlroy, Scheffler and Dechambeau The 10 golfers at the top of the betting board to win the Masters at the end of round 2 is * McIlroy - 4.6 to back - T3 in standings * Schefflers - 5.5 to back - T5 in standings * DeChambeau - 5.6 to back - 2nd in standings * Rose - 10.5 to back - 1st in standings * Conners - 17.5 to back - T3 in standings * Lowry - 19 to back - T5 in standings * Hatton - 24 to back - T5 in standings * Hovland - 34 to back - T9 in standings * Morikawa - 34 to back - T12 in standings * Aberg - 37 to back - T12 in standings I have 6 of the top 10 in the betting as live runners with McIlroy, Lowry and Aberg returning the highest profit if winning. Fleetwood and Lee are positioned around 20 keeping the top 20 bets nicely in play Happy with the portfolio in play and don’t see any bets ahead of round 3 to add for either the win or place markets Will use up a golf free bet which is due to expire tomorrow on the following matchups 5 fold - I’ve intentionally avoided the golfers I already have an interest in above - 5 fold @ 24.30 * Joaquin Niemann @ 1.80 2 Ball Tie No Bet Rd 3 15:00 Niemann/Spieth * Akshay Bhatia @ 2.00 2 Ball Tie No Bet Rd 3 15:40 Cantlay/Bhatia * Denny McCarthy @ 1.91 2 Ball Tie No Bet Rd 3 15:50 Spaun/McCarthy * Aaron Rai @ 2.25 2 Ball Tie No Bet Rd 3 16:30 Thomas/Rai * Brian Harman @ 1.57 2 Ball Tie No Bet Rd 3 17:50 Harman/Watson

Good shout, that does more appealing than 4+ birdies - particularly around Morikawa

Same bet on Paddy Power for McIlroy and Lowry 7/4

Scheffler and Morikawa both to make 4+ birdies in round 2 at 6/4 looks a decent bet on Sky Looks like max stake £10

Notts Forest 2.10 Arsenal 1.61 £10 double @ 3.3 please

Rose leads by 3 shots after round 1 with -7 Out of the past 8 Masters, the day 1 leader has won the tournament twice. 11 golfers have shared the lead on day 1 across the 8 years with 9 finishing in the top 10 and 5 finishing in the top 5. Year Golfer Round 1 Lead 2nd place by Finishing position Finishing score Trailing leader by 2025 Rose -7 3 2024 Dechambea -7 1 T6 286 9 2023 Rahm Koepka Hovland -7 2 1 T2 T7 276 280 282 N/A 4 6 2022 S Im -5 1 T8 287 9 2021 Rose -7 4 7 283 5 2020 Johnson -7 2 1 268 N/A 2019 Koepka DeChambea -6 1 T2 T29 276 284 1 9 2018 Speith -6 2 3 275 2 2017 Hoffman -7 4 T22 290 11 Historically the Master’s winner has been a golfer who sits in the top 11 at the end of day 1, this year 26 golfers sit in that range (27% of field) The 10 golfers at the top of the betting board to win the Masters at the end of round 1 are * Schefflers - 3.7 to back - T2 in standings * Aberg - 7.4 to back - T2 in standings * Rose - 9 to back - 1st in standings * DeChambeau - 11 to back - T5 in standings * McIlroy - 14.5 to back - T27 in standings * Conners - 19.5 to back - T2 in standings * Hatton - 32 to back - T5 in standings * Morikawa - 40 to back - T27 in standings I currently have Aberg, McIlroy and Morikawa as pre-tournament positions for an outright win. Rose and Dechambeau appeal as additional options to the portfolio at this stage and adding both on a ladder strategy as follows - * Rose for top 10 at 1.66 * Rose for rop 5 at 2.48 * Rose to win at 9 * Winnings from Rose finishing in top 10 covers stake for top 5 and win bets * Dechambeau for top 10 at 1.76 * Dechambeau for rop 5 at 2.9 * Dechambeau to win at 11 * Winnings from Dechambeau finishing in top 10 covers stake for top 5 and win bets Further down the leaderboard and looking ahead to the end of day 2, the cut line over the past 5 years has been - * 2024: 150 (+6) * 2023: 147 (+3) * 2022: 148 (+4) * 2021: 147 (+3) * 2022: 144 (E) The projected cut line is expected to be between +3 and +4 Nothing stands out here to me on the cut market from a betting perspective

Added a few 1st round leader bet 5 places each way. Rory McIlroy 18/1 Bryson DeChambeau 28/1 Min Woo Lee 40/1 Shane Lowry 45/1 Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 All prices Paddy Power 1 placing covers the majority of the overall stake for all 5 bets

A couple for top 20 which have caught my eye (Betfair prices) - Tommy Fleetwood 2.34 Min Woo Lee 2.72 Fleetwood's record this year has been Texas Open - T62 Valspetr - T16 Players Championship - T14 Arnold Palmer - T11 Genesis Invitational - T9 Pebble beach - T22 His Master's finishing positions over the past 6 years has been 2024 - T3 2033 - 22 2022 - T14 2021 - T46 2020 - T19 2019 - T36 Min Woo Lee's record this year has been Houston Open - Winner Players Championship - T20 Arnold Palmer - CUT Cognizant Classic - T11 Genesis Invitational - 48 Phoenix Open - T12 Pebble beach - T17 His Master's finishing positions over the past 3 years has been 2024 - T22 2033 - CUT 2022 - T14 The portfolio of golfers bets to win stands as follows - - Ludvig Aberg win 20/1 - Colin Morikawa win 22/1 - Rory McIiroy win 7/1 - Shane Lowry ew places 45/1 Dutched odds are 3.2/1 The winner of the Masters often sits in the top 10 at the end of day 1. Will look at how the leaderboard stacks up at the end of round 1 and see where value lie for the winner or further down the list for a push for top 20.

Bournemouth 2.3 Newcastle 1.5 Double £10 @ 3.45

I wonder if there may some value created as a result of the differences in the way different bookies structure their dead heat rules and odds in relation to each others. There may be some courses across the year where ties in the upper part of the leaderboard are less congested and the higher odds from Hills may offer value How we start breaking this down is the challenge I guess And seconding @BBDH in joining us in the golf forum. Brilliant golfing minds at work each week and there was some insightful and great discussion last week on the Houston thread on perspectives and views on odds

Looking at the above - I make it out as - Hills - paid out with a full place stake of £9 on a place at 1/5 odds without discounting for the number of players that placed i.e. the amount they have paid out will have been the same if there were 2 or 4 players that were tied for 5th Sky - they reduce the stake based on how many players are sharing that position (https://m.skybet.com/lp/dead-heats-in-golf). So in this instance, they looked to have taken the full stake of £18, divided by 4 for £4.5 to account for 4 players sharing 5th place and paid out on this basis I think the above sounds right but anyone is free to correct (or tidy up) my maths and thinking

A lighter shortlist for this week's PGA Texas Open - - Corey Conners win 17.5/1 top 10 2/1 - Tommy Fleetwood win 18/1 top 10 2.1/1 All prices to win on Betfair Dutching both win selections yields odds of 10/1 Good luck on your bets this week!

Latest pre-tournament win bets are

I find golf is one of the most interesting sports to bet on for a number of reasons - in particular the views on odds and favourites pre and during the tournaments (not to mention the relationship between player psychology and luck in each round). I've found with golf, that value can be seen from different angles and over a long enough timeframe - opposing views can sometimes both be profitable over different timeframes. Hot favourites can open up a world of opportunities - I've often found myself backing short favourites in large field events like golf and other times, I like to oppose the favourite and take on part of the field in what I deem are inflated odds. It's hard to know our real and true long term profitablilty, due to the finite number of tournaments each year and how the betting world evolves each year. A punter thoroughly assessing their options before making a selection, leaning on their own and their peer's experiences and with solid bankroll management will be putting themselves in the best position to make a profit over the long term. I do think that betting on golf in itself requires more discipline and patience than playing the game itself! @fd1972uk it will be interesting to view the site if you are able to recall it. I've been searching for something similiar for a while. On the topic of favourites - Scheffler is now 1.96 to back and 1.97 to lay on Betfair. I'm inclined to lay him at these prices as I view his prices too short for the current stages in the tournament. I think this is an example where backing Scheffler pre tournament can be profitable and opposing him in certain conditions during in play can also yield a profit.

Standings for the shortlist going into the final day are * T2 Brandon Stone * T6 Adrien Saddler * T6 Joost Luiten * T11 Ewen Ferguson * T62 Daniel Hillier Stone 1 behind and Saddler and Luiten 3 behind. Hopefully Brandon can push for the win here

Arsenal 1.44 Notts Forest 2.2 £10 double @3.16

Ahead of next week, 3 more have made the shortlist for the Masters - Colin Morikawa win 22/1 - Rory McIiroy win 7/1 - Shane Lowry ew places 45/1

Top 10 prices matched as follows - - Adrien Saddler 3.4/1 - Joost Luiten 3.1/1 - Ewen Ferguson 4.9/1 - Daniel Hillier 5.2/1 - Brandon Stone 4.8/1