Arkle64
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Posts posted by Arkle64
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Wembley winter favourite for 2000 Guineas?
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Group 1 14.55 Doncaster 1m
The winner of this race has won the 2000 Guineas for the last three years. Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko all won this then on their next outing were successful in the Newmarket Classic.
The favourite for this year’s race is the Aidan O’Brien trained colt Wembley whose form looks cast-iron. Last time out he was second in the Dewhurst to his stable mate St Mark’s Basilica. This son of Galileo beat his National Stake conqueror Thunder Moon into third place. He will stay the 1mile trip today and has been very strongly supported.
Main danger is One Ruler a very impressive winner of the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket over a mile on a Good/Soft surface. His run prior was slightly disappointing being beaten in a listed contest by New Mandate at this venue. However New Mandate backed this form up by winning the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Doncaster.
On a line through New Mandate you could make a tenuous case for Cobh but a bigger threat must come from the champion jockey ridden King Vega this twice raced son of Lope de Vega was second last time out in the Group 2 Solario Stakes at Sandown. He will know more about what is required today and should run well.
Megallan was beaten by One Ruler at Newmarket last time and the Appleby charge should confirm the form.
State of Rest trained by Joseph O’Brien was third to Chindit last time of 7furlongs and he may not be good enough. The final Irish trained runner is the Jim Bolger’s Mac Swiney. He finished eighth behind Thunder Moon and Wembley in the National Stakes at the Curragh and I cannot see him beating Wembley today.
Wembley 6/4 Skybet, Hills, Betfair and Paddy Power
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To be or not to be?
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) 3.15 Cheltenham
Six places are available for EW betting on this wide-open Handicap at Cheltenham today. That is reason enough for me to get involved.
Dan Skelton trains I’d Better Go Now, this rapidly improving seven-year-old won extremely easily last time out at Perth beating Jack Devine. He has gone up 8Ib for that win and is still 1Ib out of the handicap today. However, his trainer is not concerned as Harry Skelton will do 10st and the horse will like the track.
Honest Vic was 5th at the festival in the Coral Cup to Dame de Compagnie on his last outing. He has been crying out for this 3mile trip and his performance today will decide if he sticks to hurdles or goes chasing.
Neville’s Cross was a highly impressive winner at Hereford last winning by over 20 lengths from Dadsintrouble in a Class 3 event. Tom Lacey’s charge is to be ridden by Robbie Power today. Robbie has come over to UK this season to ride for Colin Tizzard but is worth watching when he takes a booking for another stable. He has a 25% strike rate for Tom Lacey and won on Galvin yesterday for Gordon Elliott.
Top weight is last years winner Tobefair. Last year he won off 149, this year he is set to carry 152 minus the 5Ib claim of leading conditional Jack Tudor. This means in effect he has less weight than last year. The horse has won twice at Cheltenham loves the 3mile test.
Kansas City Chief will give a good account he should take the field along for a long way in this the first of eight qualifiers for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival. Expect a solid display at big price from Kansas City Chief and her inexperienced rider Victoria Malzard.
My recommendation is an ew bet on Tobefair who has course, distance, weight and the class to win this event.
Tobefair 6/1 six places at Skybet
Price correct at time of submission
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Sweet Muscika
William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap Catterick Bridge 3.45 5 furlongs
The feature event at Catterick today is the Class 2 William Hill Catterick Dash won last year by Count D’Orsay. Tim Easterby’s 4 y/o gelding has a mark 99 to overcome this year, 8Ib more than he carried in 2019.He also has a poor draw being drawn on the outside in stall 10 of 10. Five furlong races at Catterick are run over a slightly left-handed dog leg which gives a small advantage to those drawn low which is more pronounced the softer the ground. Count D’Orsay is normally a slow starter with a high draw and for that reason the probable favourite is passed over.
My preference is for the David O’Meara trained Muscika who will be ridden by the 5Ib claiming apprentice Harry Russell. Harry is in superb form this month having ridden 5 winners from his 25 rides, a sparkling 20% strike rate. Muscika won last time out at York over 5 furlongs under another apprentice Angus Villiers, he is drawn in stall 5 and should be ideally placed to pick the probable front runners Militia and Justanotherbottle.
Lord Riddiford 4th behind Muscika at York has been dropped a 1Ib by the handicapper and must have a chance at the revised weights and I would not discount Broken Spear though he does seem to be better at 6 furlongs rather than today’s minimum trip.
Tip Muscika 6/1 Bet 365
Prices correct at time of submission
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Is Palace Peerless?
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) 3.05 Ascot 1m Round
A fabulous days racing at Ascot today including 4 Group 1 races. The short priced favourite for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is the John Gosden trained Palace Pier. The three-year-old son of Kingman has won twice this year at Group 1 level winning the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot beating Pinatubo and last time out the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. He will not be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft ground and this burgeoning equine superstar will take all the beating.
However, in this race there is the opportunity to have an EW bet which is unlikely to have any downside. The answer to this is the French five-year-old gelding The Revenant. He was second in the race last year behind the Richard Hannon trained King of Change beaten a length and a quarter and has been trained with this race in mind. He reappeared at Longchamp at the beginning of October and won the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, the same prep race he won in 2019. His trainer stated after the race that he was only 80% fit and would be ready at Ascot. He is to be ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot probably the best jockey to come from France since Yves Saint-Martin. I cannot see this horse not being in the first three and believe he has every chance of beating Palace Pier.
Of the others the Aidan O’Brien trained Circus Maximus the winner of the Queen Anne in June but well beaten by Palace Pier in Prix Jacques le Marois can take third place but should not beat the principals.
Tip EW The Revenant 11/2 ¼ odds 1.2.3 Paddy Power
Price correct at 8.40am subject to fluctuation
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For he’s a jolly good Fellowes
Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored by Qipco) 4.15 Ascot 1m
A Twenty-three runner Handicap over Ascot’s straight mile is usually a punters nightmare but given some of the excellent place terms on offer you should take up the challenge.
Bedford House trainer Charlie Fellowes has a superb record in handicaps at Ascot this season. He is 4 from 10 including a double at 33/1 and 20/1 at the Royal meeting in June. One of many lessons he learned from his time as an Assistant with James Fanshawe before venturing out in his own was to be patient with horses. A prime example of that is his one-time Derby hope King Ottokar. The son of Motivator showed last time at Doncaster that he is ready to win soon. He was beaten into fifth that day after being hampered by the winner Matthew Flinders when ready to make his run. His chance today has been enhanced by being dropped 2Ib to a mark of 100 by the handicapper. He is a holdup horse greatly favoured by Ascot’s very testing straight mile. He has a high draw 22 of the 23 runners which should enable him to finish strongly up the stand sides rail.
There are numerous dangers, Raising Sand trained by Jamie Osborne and to be ridden by daughter Saffie is certainly one. The gelding finished eighth in the Hunt Cup winning the race on the far side of the course. He has his ground today a high draw and Saffie Osborne is excellent value for her 7Ib claim.
Bell Rock is another with a real chance today third in the Cambridgeshire behind Majestic Dawn he runs off the same weight today and has the addition of first time cheekpieces today which should aid his concentration.
David O’Meara has won two of the last three running’s of this race and among his entries is Orbann a hold up specialist who needs a strongly run race which he will surely get today. He was beaten 3 lengths in fourth to Tempus over course and distance on his last run. With conditions in favour today he should not be discounted.
Favourite Raaeq won easily over Ascots 7 furlongs last time accounting for Breanski, he is penalized 6Ib for that win but may have been let in lightly. He could easily be a group horse in the making.
To summarize it is King Ottokar for me, but I will be having a small EW saver on Raising Sand for the father and daughter combination of Jamie and Saffie Osborne
Tip King Ottokar 13/2 six places 1/5 odds Skybet
7/1 five places 1/5 odds Unibet and Bet Victor
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Sweet Muscika
William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap Catterick Bridge 3.45 5 furlongs
The feature event at Catterick today is the Class 2 William Hill Catterick Dash won last year by Count D’Orsay. Tim Easterby’s 4 y/o gelding has a mark 99 to overcome this year, 8Ib more than he carried in 2019.He also has a poor draw being drawn on the outside in stall 10 of 10. Five furlong races at Catterick are run over a slightly left-handed dog leg which gives a small advantage to those drawn low which is more pronounced the softer the ground. Count D’Orsay is normally a slow starter with a high draw and for that reason the probable favourite is passed over.
My preference is for the David O’Meara trained Muscika who will be ridden by the 5Ib claiming apprentice Harry Russell. Harry is in superb form this month having ridden 5 winners from his 25 rides, a sparkling 20% strike rate. Muscika won last time out at York over 5 furlongs under another apprentice Angus Villiers, he is drawn in stall 5 and should be ideally placed to pick the probable front runners Militia and Justanotherbottle.
Lord Riddiford 4th behind Muscika at York has been dropped a 1Ib by the handicapper and must have a chance at the revised weights and I would not discount Broken Spear though he does seem to be better at 6 furlongs rather than today’s minimum trip.
Tip Muscika 6/1 Bet 365
Prices correct at time of submission
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Is Palace Peerless?
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) 3.05 Ascot 1m Round
A fabulous days racing at Ascot today including 4 Group 1 races. The short priced favourite for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is the John Gosden trained Palace Pier. The three-year-old son of Kingman has won twice this year at Group 1 level winning the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot beating Pinatubo and last time out the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. He will not be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft ground and this burgeoning equine superstar will take all the beating.
However, in this race there is the opportunity to have an EW bet which is unlikely to have any downside. The answer to this is the French five-year-old gelding The Revenant. He was second in the race last year behind the Richard Hannon trained King of Change beaten a length and a quarter and has been trained with this race in mind. He reappeared at Longchamp at the beginning of October and won the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, the same prep race he won in 2019. His trainer stated after the race that he was only 80% fit and would be ready at Ascot. He is to be ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot probably the best jockey to come from France since Yves Saint-Martin. I cannot see this horse not being in the first three and believe he has every chance of beating Palace Pier.
Of the others the Aidan O’Brien trained Circus Maximus the winner of the Queen Anne in June but well beaten by Palace Pier in Prix Jacques le Marois can take third place but should not beat the principals.
Tip EW The Revenant 11/2 ¼ odds 1.2.3 Paddy Power
Price correct at 8.40am subject to fluctuation
Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Natural History is progressive!
Pravha Stakes (St Simon) Group 3 16.10 Newbury 1m 4f
The Pravha Stakes formerly known as the St Simon stakes has been won by some notable horses in the past including the five times winner of the Jockey Club Cup, Further Flight. This year’s renewal is a highly competitive affair and a difficult puzzle to solve.
The likely favourite is the Richard Hannon trained globetrotter Raymond Tusk. This son of High Chaparral has not run since finishing 4th of 5 to Rainbow Dreamer in a minor event at Wolverhampton in January. He could return to form but given his lengthy absence, he is passed over.
Euchan Glen has had a good season. The Jim Goldie Scottish trained seven-year-old won the Old Newton Cup at Haydock in September and won the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at York earlier this month. He picks up a 3Ib penalty today for that success. That penalty might just be 3Ib too much.
Andrew Balding is doubly represented in this with both Natural History and Alounak, there is truly little between them. Alounak, if, he could return to the form of his second to Fanny Logan in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot would take all the beating but his last run when last of six in a listed event at Windsor was very poor. Natural History has won his last two handicaps in good style and he can manage this step up in class today. He won at Chester over 12.4f then followed up in good style at Goodwood in heavy ground beating Hyanna by 3lengths.
Natural History 7/1 Bet365 and Hills is my choice today to lead home Euchan Glen in a very trappy contest
Price correct at time of submission