[Winners & bookmakers]

Thanks for the first insights guys. I'll carefully take a look to those alternatives.

I actually started digging a bit today and already found a few things that may explain why those platforms are comfortable with winners. Apart from what you mentioned regarding platforms like Pinnacle and how they manage risk, it seems that some additional risks are hidden in their rules.

Just taking an example here: Forfeits usually lead to bet cancellation with most bookies. But in the case of Pinnacle, forfeits can be accounted as a defeat for player X and a win for player Y. Might sound like a detail, but forfeits -like some other special events- tend to happen more than we think depending on the sport, the type of game / tournament and other parameters. Eventually, this can have a significant impact on gain expectancy.

To be continued…

 

[Winners & bookmakers]

Thanks ! No worries I do not plan to sell anything here, just trying to understand how to deal with those bookies

[Winners & bookmakers]

Hello everyone,

Hope you're doing well in this very particular period ! Here is my story below, I would be very thankful if you had some insights :)

My situation

I have no specific knowledge of betting or sports (I am just a casual amateur like most people) but I have a background in computer science, mathematics & data management. I have worked on a proprietary model to predict sports’ outcomes. I have then tested the model (i.e. calculated the outcome of games & competitions but I have not placed bets for months until I was sure the model was working). The testing results were really good and I starting placing actual bets in February & March until sports competitions got stopped due to the Covid crisis. The actual results were also inline with what I saw during the testing period.

Long story short, this model is supposed to bring a 95% to 99% prediction accuracy on specific sports events. Depending on the risk set-up, I can expect to run 100 to 500 bets / year.

So let’s assume I kind of nailed it and I can expect to live from betting now (please the point is not to brag or create any debate, I am just trying to make my situation clear here. If you don’t believe in the story described before, it’s fine, but let’s not pollute this thread).

The problem to solve

I insist on the fact that my betting technic complies with bookmakers’ rules. Nothing illegal, not taking advantage of odds errors, no arbitrage, etc. Just regular bets that are -based on my assumptions- well forecasted.

I was planning to invest a bankroll of a few tens thousands in this project (let’s say $10k to start, but I could add up to $50k from my savings if things work as expected). So this initial bankroll added to the potential benefits means that the total amounts at stake could become quite big.

Here is the problem: I am deeply afraid of what I read regarding some bookmakers who limit professional betters & winners, not to mention some cases where accounts are suddenly closed and fund completely retained (incl. the initial deposit). The very fact that bookies keep the right to limit bet amounts & close accounts with no justifications (and could also use this superior position to retain betters money, including initial deposit) seriously scares me.

I am aware of the fact that there are a few things to do in order to stay under the radar such as limiting bet amounts, diversifying bets across different platforms, place some “losing bets” on purpose to cover the tracks, place bets at certain time of the day to look like a casual gambler, etc.

Nevertheless, I still feel very concerned about being fooled by some sneaky bookies.

Here are my questions

·       Based on the limitations listed before and assuming that professional betters have strong predictions accuracy, how big can professional betters make? Are we rather talking about 5 figures / year, 6 figures / year, 7 figures / year?!

·       If something goes wrong with a bookmaker, how successful can I be threatening them to sell my method? Big assumption: people believe what I do is reliable and I sell them my forecast. In the end, a bookie would rather allow me to keep placing my bet rather than having hundreds of people betting with the same level of prediction accuracy, don’t you think?

·       What are the key thresholds to use to stay under the radar:

o   Bet amounts not higher than regular betters? (i.e. $500 max? If yes, that’s pretty low)

o   Max % of winning bet ?

o   Max threshold of gain or profitability on the account?

o   Something else?

·       Anything else to know about pro-betters? I heard they rely a lot on platforms such as Pinnacle, Betfair, Sbobet, Matchbook, Betdaq, 21bet… Maybe there are some other places where they do their stuff rather than dealing with annoying bookies such as WH, Bwin, etc.?

 

Thanks a lot for your help on this