[How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?]

Just now, Sir Puntalot said:

 to Punters Lounge @marco3367   

I'm always of the opinion, that the more you complicate ratings the less accurate they will be. Having a major player our can affect teams, but not always such is the strength of squads these days. I remember last season Athletic Bilbao had both their top forwards out, drifted from 1.90 to 2.80 and still won 3-1 I think it was.

Thanks for your reply.

I know what you mean. As we all like to find value to bet, I still think those adjustment is quite important for us. 

Take your Bilbao game as example, when a important forwards for them is out, market drifted from 1.9 to 2.8, here's a quite a big adjustment for the game,

so if we can find a way to measure the adjustment of that forward, we can know maybe the true odds of Bilbao should be 2.2 after the forward is out, and we can find 2.8 is a bet with value for us?.

[How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?]

How would you adjust your rating of that match (supremacy) when a player is out? (Probably a key player, e.g. Messi? CR7?)

Any statistical way to quantify the adjustment of a player? As for now I just adjust my system base on experience.