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kedbet

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Everything posted by kedbet

  1. #22 | 90.00€ (8%) @ 1.57 with bet365 | +44.36€ Silva - Broady (6-2, 3-6, 1-0) | UK Tennis Series | 6-2, 3-6, 10-2 Actually bought this at 2-0 in the matchtiebreak. Picture was faster than the odds movement. Happens a lot at bet365. Picks: 12-10 (55%) Bankroll: 1134.92€ (+134.92€)
  2. Cashed out pick #20 with a small profit, not sure about Gauff anymore. Based on what I saw from Fernandez and Bellis lately I'm not sure about anything for the moment. Fernandez had a 5-2 lead in the second set yesterday and was in full control before losing 5 games in a row. Bellis was a different player compared to her second round match vs an in-form Pegula. These "flip a coin" performances cost me 1.4k and I can't afford to lose another 500€ although I still think that Gauff has the edge over Jabeur. There's another rain delay in Lexington anyway. Trying to rebuild some confidence before g
  3. #21 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.09 with bet365 | -500.00€ 11:05 | Raducanu - Grey | UK Tennis Series | Raducanu @ 1.16 | 6-7, 6-2, 10-3 11:05 | Bogdan - Pliskova | WTA Prague | Pliskova +1.5 Sets @ 1.18 | Bogdan ret. 17:00 | Bellis - Teichmann | WTA Lexington | Bellis +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 2-6, 4-6 18:30 | Williams - Rogers | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.25 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-7 Picks: 11-10 (52%) Bankroll: 1090.56€ (+90.56€)
  4. #20 | 500.00€ (33%) @ 1.76 with bet365 | +90.13€ 23:50 | Sherif - Day | Pro Tennis Series California | Day @ 1.10 | 1-6, 1-6 13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Kudermetova/Pavlyuchenkova | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-1, 0-0 21:30 | Jabeur - Gauff | WTA Lexington | Gauff +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | Cashed out Picks: 11-9 (55%) Bankroll: 1590.56€ (+590.56€)
  5. Whatever, from now on I'll just shut up about my theoretical and unlikely thoughts beforehand and everything is fine 😉
  6. Uhm no, I named three specific reasons above and none of them happened. Yep she looked some kind of rusty after 6 months without a match which is understandable. She timely showed that she is willing to fight and her physical situation improved drastically after the weather changed early in the second set. She had serve advantage and even going down a break she would have been within one game. That's not a situation to cash out Serena. At this point I really think I've drawn a solid picture of my way of thinking and acting, but let's just say it was up to me and I made the right call
  7. Medical reasons, being completely off like she was in her last two grand slam finals, showing no fighting spirit at all.
  8. I made completely clear why I did what I did in my detailed posting above. There are matches without a perfect moment for a potential cash out and this particular match had exactly none. There was no reason for 18 games and when there finally was some kind of reason at 4-4 (0-40) it was too late. Battling through this situation was the only option, because taking home less than 20% of my original stake was no option. So if anyone is confused just think about the risk/reward ratio at this stage of the match. Thanks for wishing me luck once again, even though it doesn't feel honest anymore 😜
  9. I stuck to my plan and I didn't tell this background story to teach you, there are some more people with maybe less knowledge reading this thread.
  10. I had my finger on the button multiple times. Cashing out after she dropped the first set was no option for me, even though she looked horrible and was breathing heavily. It's Serena and I've seen her turn around matches likes this a dozen times before. After her pathethic performance in the opener she somewhat came alive in the second set being down 0-40 in her first service game. She started pushing herself for the first time all match long and won five points in a row. So once again no need to cash out. Throughout the second set the Kentucky sun was more and more hiding behind grey clouds w
  11. #19 | 931.00€ (38%) @ 1.67 with bet365 | -931.00€ 00:25 | Day - Chavatipon | Pro Tennis Series California | Day +1.5 Sets @ 1.14 | 6-3, 0-0 10:30 | Zakarlyuk - Poznikhirenko | Pro Tennis Series France | Zakarlyuk +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | Cancelled 21:30 | Rogers - Fernandez | WTA Lexington | Fernandez +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 6-2, 7-5 Picks: 10-9 (53%) Bankroll: 1500.43€ (+500.43€)
  12. Holy moly, that was one of the toughest matches ever to battle through. For me and for the fat lady 😅
  13. Thinking about a partial cash out right now. If I pull out 500€ I could still reach 2.1k with the remaining stake if this combo succeeds. This would finally be a new peak of my bankroll after three setbacks to my beginning balance of 1k in the past. On the other side I think I have a good chance of taking it all. Serena (her husband to be exact) built a new tennis court in her backyard during the lockdown so she has been training for quite a while and should be fired up. Pera is 2-10 vs top20 players (beat Wang and Konta) and shouldn't be able to threaten the fat lady. Doubles will be played n
  14. #18 | 900.00€ (100%) @ 2.82 with bet365 | +1531.42€ 15:00 | Netuschil - Schonenberg | International Premier League | Netuschil @ 1.40 | 7-6, 7-6 23:50 | Brengle - Sabalenka | WTA Lexington | Sabalenka @ 1.22 | 1-6, 7-6, 2-6 10:00 | Gracheva - Martic | WTA Prague | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.12 | 6-7, 0-0 17:00 | Williams - Pera | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.18 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6 Picks: 10-8 (56%) Bankroll: 2431.43€ (+1431.43€)
  15. #17 | 100.61€ (10%) @ 2.02 with bet365 | -100.61€ 11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte 2nd set @ 1.80 | 6-2, 6-4 13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.12 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4 Picks: 9-8 (53%) Bankroll: 900.01€ (-99.99€)
  16. Maybe you're right, but you gotta keep in mind that there is a wide field of options for good players to fix a match by doing it unapparently. A player who is way above his opponent skillwise can easily beat him anytime by just playing his a-game. That's the beauty of this sport and the main reason why it is so profitable to bet on tennis. That said a 1.15 favorite can easily bring the odds to even by losing the opening set and dropping serve twice like Tsurenko did yesterday. So if this player finds himself down a set there is only one risk: Not finding the switch. If he does he will win the
  17. #16 | 637.00€ (39%) @ 1.74 with bet365 | -637.00€ 11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-2, 6-4 13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4 20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6 Picks: 9-7 (56%) Bankroll: 1000.62€ (+0.62€)
  18. I could understand such a move in a random exhibition match, but not when the main draw of a big tournament is on the line.
  19. #15 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.38 with bet365 | +637.42€ 17:10 | Cocciaretto/Trevisan - Rus/Zidansek | WTA Palermo | Rus/Zidansek +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | 5-7, 0-0 19:30 | Kontaveit - Ferro | WTA Palermo | Ferro +1.5 Sets @ 1.57 | 2-6, 0-0 21:00 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0 Picks: 9-6 (60%) Bankroll: 1637.62€ (+637.62€) I don't buy into the hype about these two italian chicks. There's a lot more experience and class on the other side of the net. Kalinskaya can only beat herself in this qualification match. And I still don't trust in Kontave
  20. #14 | 580.00€ (37%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | -580.00€ 14:33 | Cox - Patten (1-3 (0-0)) | UK Tennis Series | Patten @ 1.44 | 7-6, 6-3 15:15 | Sysoeva - Elie | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Elie @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 11-9 18:30 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0 Picks: 8-6 (57%) Bankroll: 1000.20€ (+0.20€)
  21. No idea what Tsurenko did in the opener. 27% on serve in the first set and barely winning a point vs a lowlevel player like Palicova is technically nearly impossible. The course of matches like this always makes me wonder if some players just wanna earn some extra money by throwing on purpose. I've seen way to much over the years to buy into the "slow start" argument anymore. Let's see what happens in the decider and if she gets her shit together.
  22. #13 | 390.26€ (100%) @ 1.26 with bet365 | +79.21€ 04:33 | Vukic - Reid (0-1 (0-0)) | Pro Tennis Series Sydney | Vukic @ 1.18 | 6-2, 6-4 12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko +1.5 Sets @ 1.071 | 2-6, 6-4, 0-0 Picks: 8-5 (62%) Bankroll: 1580.20€ (+580.20€)
  23. As you may have noticed I left the 20/80 staking for the moment. Currently I'm going with what feels right regarding my picks. The big stake in pick #11 felt completely right because my opinion on Martic is unchanged and Kontaveit had a letdown in any match she played. Unfortunately Martic started the match with a big strap on her right thigh and never looked as she felt comfortable on court. The "injured out of nowhere problem" is still happening quite often to me and is maybe my biggest trap at this stage. The only way to avoid dangers like this is live betting only. Anyways we're about to g
  24. #12 | 610.00€ (61%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | +500.72€ 18:45 | Ferro - Giorgi | WTA Palermo | Giorgi +1.5 Sets @ 1.53 | 2-6, 0-0 21:45 | Zacarias - Sherif | Pro Tennis Series California | Zacarias @ 1.071 | 6-2, 6-3 12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko @ 1.16 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 Picks: 7-5 (58%) Bankroll: 1500.99€ (+500.99€)
  25. #11 | 800.00€ (44%) @ 1.78 with bet365 | -800.00€ 11:00 | Rosca - Vanlangendonck | International Premier League | Rosca @ 1.20 | 6-3, 6-1 15:00 | Sugnaux - Dascalu | Pro Tennis Series France | Dascalu +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 | 3-6, 0-0 17:00 | Martic - Kontaveit | WTA Palermo | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.28 | 2-6, 4-6 Picks: 6-5 (55%) Bankroll: 1000.27€ (+0.27€)
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