[Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method]

@Kentucky110

I am busy these days so I still haven't found some time to input a whole season's data and backtest it.
However, I would like to share with you some results from last week's fixture:

 

I would say that the "Last 4 Games" model is intriguing and off to a great start. Especially some games from the Last 4 Games model had better odds. I have started to track various leagues from around the world to test the strength of the system (even some low scoring league like Russian Premier League). But of course, it's only the first week to put this model to test, I would say that we have to wait a few more weeks to see how it goes (or if I am able to back test some seasons using the "Last 4 Games" model).

I didn't post the Under 2.5 selections (both original model or the Last 4 Games model) because the results mostly are disappointing. Of course things should turn around a few weeks later. But I would say that the system is more reliable to pick Over 2.5 than Under 2.5 goals.

I still have no ideas where to look into when we have to study Under 2.5 goals, the problem is many low scoring teams play more conservative when facing a stronger opponents, but when two low scoring teams (in other words, teams that are on the same tier or level) face each other, they might be more open to attack (as this is the chance they can beat an opponent to get 3 points to climb up the league table). I have to look into the stats pool to see if I can identify some factors that can be good indicators of good DEFENSE of a team (because the system only consider goals, I think that maybe goals are only good indicators of good OFFENSE, but not defense). Not scoring goals of course can lead to Under 2.5 games more often, but strong defense should be our main focus. However, as I have just mentioned, I still haven't got any ideas how it could be done.

Let's see how everything goes!
Thanks for your time, Ken

[Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method]

1 hour ago, Kentucky110 said:

@jazzman45 this is the new link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gT8Iq0pm6aG4Dl72OMegONIfWSJHPbO2pcm5KqXTfl8/edit?usp=sharing

I had to put some helper columns in as when the sheet was picking the last 4 games it was picking the next game entered on the fixtures and results tab as the last game giving it a 0-0 result.

When you download you will have to remove the curly brackets {.....}again as described above sorry for any inconvenience caused

Last 4 games should give you below for Championship

Let me know if you need any help

Ken

thanks again!

[Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method]

@Kentucky110Thanks for the notice, coz I was about to use the new spreadsheet to do some backtests, guess we have to wait a bit later then.

Looking forward to seeing what it will lead to.

[Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method]

21 minutes ago, Kentucky110 said:

Hi All I have figured it out

Download the sheet as excel file open it go to Last 4 games tab Click into cell R5 in the formula bar you will see that Google sheets has converted the formula to an array. ie Curly Brackets around the formula {....}

Click the end of the formula and the curly brackets disappear Tab into the next cell S5 and repeat do this until the end of the row AJ5 and the row should now have numbers in copy R5 to AJ5 down to ROW 28 and that should fix the problem. Click save

if you now go to G2 on the Rankings tab enter "Y" press enter it should now work

any problems let me know

@jazzman45Hope this is what you were looking for

Ken

Thanks Ken, would definitely try it out to see what we can get. Will keep you updated!

[Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method]

Thanks Ken for the great effort.

I am interested in the new spreadsheets, of course.

Just some comments about the methodology, I know that for any selections to be made, the Home and Away team must have played at least 4 Home games and 4 Away games respectively. Here's the idea:

if a team has performed so well and scored so many goals at the beginning of the seasons, that team should easily outrank other team in the rating list, but if, for some reasons (e.g. due to tight schedule or many injuries on the team etc.), the team under-performs for some weeks, your method might NOT be able to detect this. Besides, given the fact that that team might score a lot in earlier games of the season, the cumulative goals would make it easily outrank other teams, which leads to the possibility that the games played by this kind of team will almost always get a selection. But this might not be the best selection as that team might have under-performed for a few weeks (likewise, teams that didn't score many in the earlier of the seasons might have some weeks that over-performed and scored many goals), put it simply, the spreadsheet cannot take these scenarios into considerations.

So is that possible to just rank the teams by the last 4 Home games' and 4 Away games' record? If we can just consider the last 4 games that being played, might be the spreadsheets can then take the above factors into considerations and make better, or even more accurate selections.

Just some thoughts that came up in my mind, been tracking this thread for some time, hope it helps.

Again, appreciate your great work, Ken!