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Everything posted by artichoke

  1. First bet of the competition for me : South Korea v Norway Least you can say is that South Korea did not had an easy start, first by logically losing 4-0 to France and then 2-0 to Nigeria. Norway is doing ok with a 3-0 win against Nigeria, and only losing to France (the big favorites with the USA) with a scoreline of 2-1, admittedly with a curious own goal from French defender Wendy Renard, but in a tight game nonetheless. Norway is a decent side with a fairly organized and disciplined defense, and a decent link-up game, whereas South Korea is... not good, in every aspects of the ga
  2. Have to disagree about this game. Portugal was good in the first round of the nations league but not particularly convincing, especially considering they were playing against teams that were a class (or two) below the best of the first group - which include Switzerland. On the contrary, I have been impressed by Switzerland. They played an aggressive, complete football, and absolutely outperformed Belgium - for me one of the three best national teams in the world - after losing a very tight game by one goal. If Switzerland drew in the ECQ to Danemark by conceding 3 goals in the last 5 min
  3. But Messi will be playing tonight, won't he? (got some insider info? )
  4. One bet for me tonight : Cyprus vs Belgium : Belgium -1.5 AH @ 1.4 Sounds to me like printing money. Belgium isn't exactly the kind of team to hold back and be happy with 1-0 wins, as their records can testify. Minus Boyata, Belgium is playing with the same players that won against Russia 3-1 a few days ago. The game will take place in Cyprus, whose time zone and climate (at this time of the year, at least) isn't that different from Belgium. Belgium to win to nil @ 1.5 sounds also fine, though stupid GK mistake can happen (as it did against Russia), so i'll stick with 1.4.
  5. Congrats everyone for the good forecasts ITT, I've been only following the CL from afar but I'm tempted to risk a few quids on Lyon to win at Camp Nou @ 13. Barcelona have for once been unimpressive this year and Lyon is in a pretty good form. If anything, Lyon were the better team in the first leg IMO. Lyon to qualify or + 2 seems reasonable as well.
  6. Those twos are pretty obvious picks in my opinion : Netherlands v France I can not even conceive that Netherlands can win this game. The only potential worry is that Umtiti isn't here tonight, (Pogba as well but that's less of a concern since Deschamps have a lot of good midfield options). So back France to win DNB at 1.6 with a big stake. If Netherlands happen to take the lead, i'll put some more money. Italy v Portugal There's a pretty big gap between these teams as well, so back Portugal to win DNB at 2.15 with a mid-to-big stake. Sorry there isn't much in the way of analysi
  7. Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Generous odds for Dortmund here, considering Atletico poor form. Obviously, the first leg was much tighter than the scoreline could let you think, with 3 goals scored in the last 20 minutes... Still a lot of value to take on Dortmund, i'll pick the DNB at 2.75 because i'm a cautious man. Mid stake. Napoli v PSG PSG are very weak this year... their offensive trio literally can't make 3 passes in a row. They were non existent against Liverpool and Napoli and owed pretty much all their goals to either incredible individual talent (Di Maria supe
  8. re : Juventus v Manchester Utd Your thoughts on this game? I haven't watched these teams plays recently but looking at these twos past records and given the current state of Man Utd, putting a few points on a Juventus win DNB at 1.56 seems reasonable?
  9. Switzerland v Iceland Switzerland to win @ 1.75 seems decent. Switzerland was impressive against Belgium, but i don't think Iceland is going to take another 6-0 again. More like a 2 goals diff win. Small to medium stake. Spain v England Where i'm from, Spain to win is @ 1.55 which is a bit too low for my taste. I think the game is going to be tighter than what the odds implies and if i'm proven right i might place a live bet on this. France v Germany I think France is a vastly superior team in every aspects, but these french guys are pretty lazy when the stakes are low. Though D
  10. My picks so far, first twos are the bigger bets : First, Belgium and Portugal to finish first of their group is priced at 1.3 and 1.5 respectively, which makes for a nice double of 1.95, given that there is a big gap between these teams and their group, it would be a shame not to take it. You can add France as well for a tasty 2.7 triple, but 1.9 is good enough for me. Results in a month, obviously place it before thursday evening. Poland v Portugal Woop-di-doo, Portugal bringing the value again. Portugal to win at 2.45 is very generous. I hope i'm not selling Poland short here, i don'
  11. I can see your point about numbers being a safety net. About getting value out of a model, what i meant was that i find it hard to believe that an amateur could come up with something that beat the bookies in the long run. I mean, there is hundreds (thousands?) of mathy/comp sci people working for them and refining their model, so from my point of view (i'm a student and betting is certainly not my first interest) it's not worth the time and effort to try to beat them on their own ground. Though i guess it's possible if you are really serious about this, but if you manage to win on numbers
  12. I've only been betting for a few months, so you might want to take the following with a grain of salt (but i have been pretty successful, hence why i bother writing). First, i would suggest betting less, but bigger amounts. Just focus on finding bets that fits these criterions : 1) there is value on them 2) you are as sure as it gets about the outcome. I know the "traditional way" is to bet a few points here and there on a lot of games, the theory being that it allows you to cover losing runs. But the thing is, unless you are a football oracle and watch every games you will end up betti
  13. Damn, i thought Spain was the better team but i certainly didn't expected a 6-0... For the first 15 min i thought i was right to avoid this game as Croatia could have took the lead, but then they completely disappeared and got teared apart by a very effective (6 goals for 7 shots on target) Spain. Admittedly Croatia defense was very weak. The odds for the next games aren't up yet but the following is IMO printing money : Belgium to finish first of their group @ 1.3 - winamax Portugal to finish first of their group @ 1.5 Which makes for a nice 1.95 double. You can even add France to fin
  14. Re : Portugal v Italy As expected Portugal absolutely dominated Italy on the technical side with nice build up and midfield game. Italy rarely managed to make 3 passes in a row. Though it doesn't show on the final score since Portugal seems to have trouble with finishing (the only point where the absence on Ronaldo can be noticed), at times it was quite funny (and frustrating) to see their forwards passing the ball like a hot potato at less than 15m of the goal and enough space to strike - as if they were afraid to... On the positive side for Italy, they got some fast wingers, which have
  15. I wouldn't take the fact that Ronaldo is missing as an important factor : in my opinion he hasn't been of an utmost importance during the WC. I haven't watched the game against Croatia but the consensus seems to be that Portugal have no problem to play without him. Portugal are at home and will want to show some to their fans + the players want to show that they aren't a one-man team (or so i've been told they said that). Though I'm still hesitating between Portugal to win and a DNB though, since Portugal had a few draws in low stakes games last years (against Mexico and Chile in the Confe
  16. Thanks Well, Fra v Ger was kind of disappointing, glad i've picked the DNB! Griezmann and Mbappe, the backbone of the attack, haven't seemed very interested in the game. Gutted that i totally forgot about Turkey v Russia, a few days ago i was surprised to see Russia being sold short (Russia to win was @ about 5 IIRC) considering what they've done in the WC, but then i just forgot about it. For the forthcoming games i'm looking at : Portugal v Italy Well Italy almost lost to Poland, which speaks for itself... and Portugal, in spite of an aging squad, is still a decent team. So Po
  17. Germany v France France traditionally doesn't plays too well in low stakes games. This time is particular though, it's the first game after the WC and i think that a win is psychologically important because they want to consolidate the work done during the cup. Germany is the shattered shadow of its former self and i really can't see how they can win this, no matter how much they want to start fresh. Tactically, France packs a lot of punch and speed, with one of the strongest defense of the tournament, and the Germany we've seen was very slow, uninspired and uncoordinated. I expect at l
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