LaMunxo
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Posts posted by LaMunxo
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Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets.
ok just to note, in that case its right, if u did that on match odds or anything else it, it'd be wrong. anyway, evens/odds are distributed 48/52 from some recent premiership year i saw and, 52/48, for like 8000 records i have in some db,various leagues.. so i gues fair odds are around 1.92/2.08 which is what is available, so how do you make ur selections ? should i read ur upper posts ;) ???well i used 1.90. bet365 gives this and nothing else for EVERY match in ANY league. they obviously think it's not worth pricing it up differently for each match. i have never found it to be below 1.90 for any single game this season. -
Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets. if u say u generated 30% yields for seasons since 93/94 did u test that on actual even/odd odds ? if not, you will exeprience harsh reality...
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Re: Luck Factor - Bankrupcy Math Ian, Thanks for answer, yes i was doing some simulations too and am trying to put it into formula. Theres maybe some theory behind all this but i'm not that good at math myself. Heres what i found: odds are 2.0, hitrate 55% (10% expected yield), staking 1% of bank flat, starting bank 1.0 all runs repeated 10000 times to find the bankrupcy percentage First test, maximum possible loss: Bets in Run | Minimum Bank of all runs 10 | 0.90 20 | 0.85 50 | 0.79 100 | 0.722 200 | 0.7 500 | 0.68 1000 | 0.67 Second test, chance of not being in positive balance: Bets | Chance of being in - (bank under 1.0) 10 | 49% 20 | 40% 50 | 28% 100 | 18% 200 | 8% 500 | 1.5% 1000 | 0.05% personally i cant imagine 200 bet run and being in minus, but the numbers give some interesting information. It gives me enough info but still wonder if anyone have this put into formula.gl.
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I'm sure some of the math guys will know the formula for this, here is the question: When picking odds O (2.0 for example) with H (lets say 60%) hitrate and start bank B. What is the chance C of loosing X% of bank(100% = bankruptcy) over Y bets? Edit: Staking strategy is also important, lets say stakes are flat, 1% of bank. In endless row the chance of loosing is zero and yield is O*H (20% for those values above) but what is it in real life, smaller runs - 50,100,1000 etc bets. Please post if u have the formula which covers this luck factor. Thank You!
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Re: CL matches 13/09 omg i still cant believe prices on CSKA, if there is value in something tonight its CSKA+0.5 @ 2.15. not taking this should be considered crime against yourself.
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Re: CL matches 13/09 about dinamo-steua today, i think even lyon and real will have big problems in kyiv and the paper wont mean much/ dinamo is very strong home and if they dont underestimate steaua today they should win like 2-1 or 3-1. 1.9 for home win is definately worth taking. they also has much experience which means a lot here.i dont think this group has too clear favorites and kyiv can go further if they get points like this. Steua maybe will make some draws which in the end will actually help dinamo -maybe little too early for this but i think it eventually will happen.
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Re: CL matches 13/09
gl but imo 3.75 is WAY too low for anyone to score in this match. 1. it may easily be under match. 2. CSKA has TOO big variety of players which score goals (vagner love,olic,carvalho). too low odds on Jo.Porto - CSKA Jo (Jorginho) CSKA to score a goal This kid is amazing. So much class, elegance, talent, whatever. And he's so young. Amazing driblings, amazing touch..it's incredible. I just must take this bet on him to score a goal here, betfair @3.75, best price by far on the market... Bwin has only 2.5. GL~ -
Re: CL matches 12/09 finally giyuly scored, he always has nice chances but nothing from it :)
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Re: CL matches 12/09
from last info i have, frings,klasnic,borrowski should play, so bremen chances stands.Klose has made the game and starts -
Re: CL matches 12/09
thanks for info and thats what i think too (about players showing off for transfer money) but that said, i dont expect that to matter tonight. as i said before, this is maybe hardest group for all 3 favorites and it happenedmany times before, they need points from outsiders. about shevchenko, well sure it wasnt just one goal ;)Let me show you how thigs really are here in Bulgaria. Nobody gives a damn about home league. Players are bored to play in it. Only 5-6 matches per season can be considered as a serious motivation for the players of Levski (against CSKA and Litex, maybe some Cup matches). This season it's all about CL for Levski. The de facto boss of Levski said that their goal is to impress in CL and to sell as many players at the highest prices possible in the winter. Think about Artmedia last season and you will see the master plan of Levski. There is no chance Levski will run back and forth at Nou Camp thinking about home league. It's a part of their 15 minutes of glory, they have waited enough for it so they will try to make the best of it. Stoichkov scored against Barca and entered the world football stage. Shevchenko scored against Barca and went to Milan. That's what's going on inside the heads of Levski's players right now. That said, Barca should have little problems beating them. But Levski's motivation is 100%. -
Re: CL matches 12/09 chelsea-werder this news changes everything quite a lot Goalkeeper Tim Wiese, striker Miroslav Klose and defender Per Mertesacker will be out of contention for the match. Wiese has bronchitis, Klose and Mertesacker are injured. International midfielders Tim Borowski and Torsten Frings are still in doubt for the clash. Bright omega: Chelsea not focusing on premierleague ? i think you are wrong there. Even if they focus 1000% on champions league, they still have so hard group they have no guarantee they will be better than werder and barca. very hard group. if they were in other one then they could put more focus on something, but not in this case.
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Re: CL matches 13/09
hmmmm... 2.6 sure is interesting. cska have very good defense but if they concede they will have to score and i believe theres cska main power, in forwards. i have to think about this further and get more info cos still both porto / cska lot of games end in 0:0/1:0 and alike.... hard to read but 2.6 seem worth a shot. edit>Event : Porto v CSCA Selection : Over 2.5 Bookmaker/price : 2.6 @Betfair Reasoning : This is also a game that i'm expectin lot of goals because this teams are playing more attacking than defensive football.Nov 24, 2004 UEFA Champions League CSKA Moscow Porto 0 - 1 Sep 15, 2004 UEFA Champions League Porto CSKA Moscow 0 - 0 -
Re: CL matches 12/09 sure anyone is beatable. i just think valencia has good form advantage in this moment and this group is absolutely equal (i expect lot of draws and away wins) so actually result from this night may take them further in the end. i think valencia still better a little then others. gl.
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Re: CL matches 12/09
imo, levski would do best if they focus on their home league already cos they dont have chance. barcelona,werder,chelsea all have chances and need every point. imo, barcelona will set levski straight about where they belong tonight, with 3:0 or 4:0.no matter if levski is getting better or not, they dont have chance here.Barcelona - Levski Defending champion Barcelona plays their first CL game this season at home with newcomers Bulgarian champion Levski. Levski did a great job winning over Italian Chievo so they won the right to play in CL this season which is big success for them. They will have a mission impossible in this group with Barca and Chelsea, but they will fight at least for that third UEFA spot. Shouldn't be problems for Barca in this game, thye are playing at home we all know their strenght, but I think we won't see some trashing either. Levski is decent club nowdays and I believe they will put a nice fight. I see 2:0 or maybe even 1:0 win for Barca. Odds @7 betfair and @8.75 Centrebet. GL~ -
Re: CL matches 12/09
Salzburg is quite compact team and they were in good form back then so it wasnt easy match at all. They won them very comforably at home. Dont forget valencia is in great league form, recently winning strong atletico away.Olympiakos - Valencia Valencia showed some signs of weakness in their away match with Salzburg in CL qualifications where they lost 1:0. Olympiakos is in good shape and had a nice prep.period winning games quite easily. They didn't change much from last year and I think they can win this game in Greece. I'll try homewin in this match, [email protected]. GL~ -
Re: CL matches 12/09
i know about those transfers and i'm not talking about st pauli man. their pre season was very bad. their league is not that great. i think the transfers actually will need some time to work new players in the team. ballack loss is probably too big. podolski is big star already no doubt about it and he is good player too but all in all bayern has some names but theres lots of questions about the team for me. i dont think there is reason to take 1.35 tonight, imo that is underprice just cos of bayern name. russians are capable of drawing bigger teams. and really bayern is not in good form. only thing i wonder is how podolski will do in CL cos i sort of like his play. about roma, its little tricky, roma had good results in CL already but i somewhat feel draw there.Bayern beat Bochum and Borrusia Dortmund, and had an excellent transfer period, lost ballack but brought van Buyten, Podolski and van Bommel! Ok they had a dead leg against St Pauli but that doesn't mean anything this is CHAMPIONS LEAGUE it doesn't get bigger then this at club level, It's a pretty hard group and they will play their hearts out. This is their line-up for tonight: Kahn - Sagnol, Lucio, Van Buyten, Lahm - Salihamidzic, Van Bommel, Hargreaves, Schweinsteiger - Makaay, Podolski Now how does that not give confidence ???!!:D Edit : PS : I actually think that Shaktar will defeat Roma :) , although not so confident as to place a bet. -
Re: CL matches 13/09 porto-cska porto is beatable at home ground and we've seen that many times. only questiion for me here is if cska will go on 100%, if they will then this is worth taking. i think quality is at russian side, good defense, perfect forwards. imo, cska is able to win on anyones ground this year with what they got. many possibilities here. A-0.5 @ 5 A+0.5 @ 2.1 are all good picks, depends what risks you want to take. personally i think this will not end in draw so i like A-0.5 more. As A-0 which is BEST option for this match i think is not available at exchanges... u may get like 3-3.5 at regular bookies for that.if exchanges open that go for that @ 3.5-3.8 or whatever will be there.
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Re: CL matches 12/09 i dont understand how people can go on bayern, they are not giving any confiidence last months. imo very possible draw. anotherb very likely draw is as roma - shaktar.
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Re: CL matches 12/09 +olympiacos vs valencia valencia is showing great form in both cl and league 2.7 for win is very good and i think best olympiacos will do tonight is draw so you may take A-0 @ 1.8 for that.gl.
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Re: CL matches 12/09 also galtasaray-bordeaux is good bet wheater H-0 @ 1.7 or H-0.5 @ 2.4 both have value. i saw bordeaux playing recently and turks will NOT loose this at home.good odds imo.
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Re: CL matches 12/09 chelsea-werder huh.. werder odds (9.8) are total overprice omg they have one of best teams in europe and their motivation is will be high as this is cl.. i dont know if they win tonight but there is BIG value in odds around 10 are a joke and i'm taking it.
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Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings
Factors you mentioned can help you determine the outcome of particular match' date=' but surely cant tell you anything about value - it's all about maths for me, mate ;)[/quote'] just to explain what i meant... as value is just difference in odds and ur expectation and i think,same as you look on h2h or whatever, you look on injuries and by that you move ur probability/expectaton(85% with some suspensions or 90% if noone suspended)... and i think those suspension/injury things are very important so you can make real guess... -
Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Ok. Have to say, that motivation,injuries,suspensions,interviews etc are the most important indicators of value,at least it hink they are. Wish you good luck, tho it dont matter here ;) Proving a system takes long runs, good start seem to be to test on previous years. I have seen qute some rateform systems etc and even if they were lets say up 20% after 50 bets or 10% after 100, then they all settled around 0%. plus minus something little. Dont see much use in that, thats why i think theres no replacement for knowledge and good analysis of a match. gl.
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Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings djordje do you make those values using ur head or some algorithm ? imo nothing can replace knowledge, cos there is too much things to consider
even total goals. +1.8% yield. 374 bets.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Even total goals. 34% yield. 12 bets.
ok. i wonder, can u past here how was the system doing per month or atleast year, from 93 ? Month - Bets - Correct - Profit - Yield ??