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Found 31 results

  1. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  2. Im going to be starting with a bank of £20. Each bet will be 5% or 10% of bankroll depending on odds and confidence. Matches will be fully researched using soccer 24 website. I am only allowed to place a maximum of 1 bet at any given time. This means i can NOT have 2 bets running at the same time. Odds have to be at least 1.40 Wish me luck
  3. Hi I present to you my predictions from my software. There are 3 types predictions Over 1.5, Over 2.5, & Home Wins I hope these to be useful to anyone. Any questions I do my best to reply. good luck 28/10/2018 Predictions Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 1.5 match goals) Danish SAS-Ligaen Hobro IK v Vejle Italy Serie A Genoa v Udinese Spanish Segunda Division Extremadura UD v Albacete Greek Super League Panetolikos v Asteras Tripolis Spanish Primera Division Alavés v Villarreal Spanish Segunda Division Elche v Real Zaragoza Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 2.5 match goals) Dutch Eredivisie Willem II v FC Utrecht Belgian Jupiler League Standard Liege v Genk Swiss Raiffeisen Super League Xamax v FC Luzern Swiss Raiffeisen Super League St Gallen v FC Zurich Swiss Raiffeisen Super League FC Lugano v Thun Spanish Primera Division Barcelona v Real Madrid Dutch Eredivisie AZ v Heerenveen Swedish Allsvenskan IFK Norrkoping v Östersunds FK Norwegian Tippeligaen Odd BK v Tromso Belgian Jupiler League Eupen v Anderlecht German Bundesliga Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen French Ligue 1 Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Home Wins) Dutch Eredivisie Ajax v Feyenoord Danish SAS-Ligaen FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus Turkey Super Lig Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Portuguese Liga FC Porto v Feirense Greek Super League AEK Athens v Aris Salonika Spanish Primera Division Sevilla FC v SD Huesca Portuguese Liga Sporting CP v Boavista
  4. I will be betting on the market "win either half". I will be staking 10% of my bankroll per bet most of the time sometimes 20% will be staked but only on lower odds games that im confident with. I will be starting with a total balance of £10. I will be using the soccerway website for research. I will also give reasoning behind my selections Fingers crossed this method goes well and i can quit my job lmao IF "win either half" MARKET IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A SELECTION DUE THE GAME NOT BEING HIGH PROFILE ENOUGH I WILL BACK THE "double chance" MARKET. I WILL BE UPDATING TOTAL BALANCE EVERY 5 BETS EVERY 5 BETS I WILL CALCULATE THE PERCENT OF MY NEW BANKROLL AND APPLY TO STAKE
  5. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  6. 7 furlong angles

    Hi everyone, I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out... With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really. Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75 Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26 David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50 Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88 Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93 Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25 And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were 2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5 2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25 2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26 2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13 As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.
  7. Stats

    Hi guys does anyone have t a list of the runners from the naps and trebles from 1st Oct to 8th Oct as i was away TIA
  8. I will be starting with £5 and staking £1 per bet. Im not aiming for fixed odds so odds will vary. I will be using Betfairs inplay feature to see who is the better team. I will only be betting on teams that are dominating the opposition. I will also give reasoning behind my selections Fingers crossed this method goes well and i can quit my job lmao
  9. Does anyone know how to calculate odds for half with most goal from poisson distribution? Any advice is welcome
  10. I will be starting with £5 and betting only £1 per bet. I will bet only on matches where the odds are maximum of 1.25. When starting with £1 all winnings will go onto the next bet until i reach £2. If i win i will cash in on the £1 profit and restart with £1. If this bet loses however i will be using a martingale type system where i double the stake. So if the £1 bet loses i will go up to £2 and attempt to reach £4. If the £2 bet loses we accept defeat and our balance will receive a £3 deficit (£1 for first bet and £2 for the second). Hope this makes sense it is a little confusing at first but its something that popped into my head and thought i would give it a try
  11. Hi Guys, I started a 'LAY' startegy on horse racing and am currently at day 72. Ive turned £1k into £5.9k so far in the 72 days. My aim is to get to £100k which if i keep on this track should be achieved within another 3- 5 months. I post the selections daily, and have recorded all the results to the date if anyone is interested? Would anyone like to follow the rest of the challenge on here? or even do it also? Let me know.
  12. I will be starting with £5 and betting on singles. i will be betting pre match using soccer 24 for previous results and where the team is in the table and in play using the bet 365 match stats for guidance. Every bet must be £1 placed. Odds will be anything as long as it looks good
  13. Liams InPlay Betting Adventures

    I will be using a Fixed Stake of £1 per bet and using it on singles, doubles and trebles. I have a total starting bankroll of £10 and will be using Bet365 for stats during inplay wish me luck
  14. Glory Hunters Next Goal Doubles

    I will be starting with £5 and trying to get to £10 at which point i will start the process again and again and again. I will be aiming for max odds of 1.7 and will be betting on there being another goal in the match wish me luck
  15. Hi everyone, this is my first time doing this and I thought the new year was a good place to start. I have read a few posts about people doing perm bets to increase chances of winning and most often selecting first goalscorers or correct scores because of the higher odds. The one that caught my eye was the correct scores. Basically, you select 3 matches and 3 possible scores in each of those matches. For example Man City 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, Liverpool 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and Man Utd 1-0, 2-0, 3-0. With the perm bet this is 27 doubles and 27 trebles. I am going to be doing 10p trebles and 20p doubles. This will be a total of £8.10. Depending on odds I should be making small profit if I can get one double however a treble can have great returns. At first I will be backing high favourites however I have also considered games that look good for under 2.5 I will be using Bet365 because they void games at 0-0 for correct scores. Wish me luck and I’m open to any advice or predictions that you will have. Thanks, 6avin
  16. Information and advice

    Hi guys want to ask opinions on some betting advice if you are running a system and are showing a profit in different areas should you keep the whole system or alter the system. Examples system 1 Whole system Total No. Bets 260 Total No. Wins 95 Total No. Lost 165 Strike Rate 36.54% Stake 260.00 Win P&L 75.93 PoT 29.20% ROI 151.86% System 2 (adapting system on odds basis) Total No. Bets 113 Total No. Wins 35 Total No. Lost 78 Strike Rate 30.97% Stake 113.00 Win P&L 66.16 PoT 58.55% ROI 132.32% As you can see by altering some parameters the No of selections decreases but so does the S/R (only by a samll %), The Stake decreases as does the ROI (again by a small %) But The PoT increases significantly (Profit over Turnover) Based on this in your opinion should the system be altered or not. TIA for any help
  17. Low Odds Profitable Method

    hi so this method consists of picking 3 teams/games at odds of 1.15 - 1.2. this should come to around 1.7 in total. pretty straight forward ill be giving this method a go with a starting bank of £5
  18. 32Red Flush Royale

    New and Improved Flush Royale now get a guaranteed €1000 when you hit the MONSTER ROYALE!! Flush Royale Join us every evening at 9pm (UK time) as we hunt for the best possible hand in Poker. Show down a Royal Flush of any suit using both your hole cards and win our €1,000 Flush Royale Jackpot! Tournament Details Tournament Name Flush Royale (€200 Guaranteed + €1,000 Jackpot!) Date & Time Daily at 9pm (UK time) Buyin €5 + €1 Chips & Blinds 1500 starting chips, 8 minute blinds Rebuys & addon €5 rebuys (1500 chips), €7.50 addon (3k chips) Lobby Tournaments > Special STEVIE all details here (mods add forum links if needed please ...thanks)
  19. UFC TUF 25

    This weekend is International Fight Week for the UFC in Las Vegas , Here's my picks for the 1st of 2 cards this weekend Friday's TUF 25 Finale. TUF 25 Finale Headliner (Gaethje vs Johnson) Gaethje to Win - 7/5 (Bet365) Gaethje to Win by KO/TKO/DQ - 5/2 (Skybet) TUF 25 Finale (Taylor vs Lima) Lima to Win - 7/4 (Betfred) Other Main Card Picks Diakiese to Win - 10/27 (Will Hill) Theodorou to Win - 13/16 (Unibet) Prelim Pick's Ladd to Win - 5/6 (Betway) Hill to Win - 4/11 (Betvictor) Ishihara to Win - 4/11 (Will Hill)
  20. The Research Strategy !!!

    well my previous betting systems simply failed so i thought i would give this a go. i will be starting with £2 (thats all i have in my account) and with the power of research i will be trying to build a solid bank i have decided i will mostly be doing doubles and singles and every bet has to be supported with some solid research. (starting from bet 3 the staking plan is no more than 20% of entire bank roll on each bet but there will be exceptions)
  21. How Much Profit Can I Make ???

    what im going to be doing is seeing how much profit i can make starting with a total balance of £5. I will be using all the techniques i have gathered over the years and implementing them into this. there is no set stake for each bet !!
  22. so the system begins with picking 3 games at 1.7 odds or there abouts creating an accumulator. the total winnings for the accumulator should come to odds of 5. ill be starting with £5 and betting £1 per bet. if 1 bet wins i will get my money back if 2 win ill have doubled my starting stake ETC.
  23. Doubles Betting Method

    hi so this method starts with picking 2 teams on 1 bet at odds of 1.5 to make the double. i will begin with £1 if i win ill be up to £2 if i win again ill be up to £4. once £4 has been reached i will restart at £1 and continue. the aim is to see how much profit i can make. hope this makes sense lol
  24. I'm wondering what approach people take to selecting a bet and deciding if the odds on offer are value. I have designed an excel spreadsheet where I input my opinion of the goals scored percentage per team and it generates a table that I can compare to the odds on offer from a range of bookmakers and can quickly see where the value is. This is the output table for Chelsea v Man Utd. I can quickly see that the value based on my opinion is on over 1.5 goals. The odds are not big, but in the long run the most important thing is value. For someone who wants bigger odds I can see that the next value bet is 'Both Team To Score' @ 1.91 with William Hill which might appeal to most bettors. This approach has refined my betting dramatically and increase my ROI significantly. It also highlights to people that while Both Teams To Score offers quite a bit of value in my opinion I expect this bet to lose 40% of the time so bankroll management is also important. How do you do it?