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Found 26 results

  1. I will be starting with £5 and staking £1 per bet. Im not aiming for fixed odds so odds will vary. I will be using Betfairs inplay feature to see who is the better team. I will only be betting on teams that are dominating the opposition. I will also give reasoning behind my selections Fingers crossed this method goes well and i can quit my job lmao
  2. Does anyone know how to calculate odds for half with most goal from poisson distribution? Any advice is welcome
  3. Stats

    Hi guys does anyone have t a list of the runners from the naps and trebles from 1st Oct to 8th Oct as i was away TIA
  4. 7 furlong angles

    Hi everyone, I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out... With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really. Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75 Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26 David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50 Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88 Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93 Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25 And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were 2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5 2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25 2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26 2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13 As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.
  5. I will be starting with £5 and betting only £1 per bet. I will bet only on matches where the odds are maximum of 1.25. When starting with £1 all winnings will go onto the next bet until i reach £2. If i win i will cash in on the £1 profit and restart with £1. If this bet loses however i will be using a martingale type system where i double the stake. So if the £1 bet loses i will go up to £2 and attempt to reach £4. If the £2 bet loses we accept defeat and our balance will receive a £3 deficit (£1 for first bet and £2 for the second). Hope this makes sense it is a little confusing at first but its something that popped into my head and thought i would give it a try
  6. I will be starting with £5 and betting on singles. i will be betting pre match using soccer 24 for previous results and where the team is in the table and in play using the bet 365 match stats for guidance. Every bet must be £1 placed. Odds will be anything as long as it looks good
  7. Liams InPlay Betting Adventures

    I will be using a Fixed Stake of £1 per bet and using it on singles, doubles and trebles. I have a total starting bankroll of £10 and will be using Bet365 for stats during inplay wish me luck
  8. Glory Hunters Next Goal Doubles

    I will be starting with £5 and trying to get to £10 at which point i will start the process again and again and again. I will be aiming for max odds of 1.7 and will be betting on there being another goal in the match wish me luck
  9. Hi everyone, this is my first time doing this and I thought the new year was a good place to start. I have read a few posts about people doing perm bets to increase chances of winning and most often selecting first goalscorers or correct scores because of the higher odds. The one that caught my eye was the correct scores. Basically, you select 3 matches and 3 possible scores in each of those matches. For example Man City 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, Liverpool 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and Man Utd 1-0, 2-0, 3-0. With the perm bet this is 27 doubles and 27 trebles. I am going to be doing 10p trebles and 20p doubles. This will be a total of £8.10. Depending on odds I should be making small profit if I can get one double however a treble can have great returns. At first I will be backing high favourites however I have also considered games that look good for under 2.5 I will be using Bet365 because they void games at 0-0 for correct scores. Wish me luck and I’m open to any advice or predictions that you will have. Thanks, 6avin
  10. Hi Guys, I started a 'LAY' startegy on horse racing and am currently at day 72. Ive turned £1k into £5.9k so far in the 72 days. My aim is to get to £100k which if i keep on this track should be achieved within another 3- 5 months. I post the selections daily, and have recorded all the results to the date if anyone is interested? Would anyone like to follow the rest of the challenge on here? or even do it also? Let me know.
  11. Information and advice

    Hi guys want to ask opinions on some betting advice if you are running a system and are showing a profit in different areas should you keep the whole system or alter the system. Examples system 1 Whole system Total No. Bets 260 Total No. Wins 95 Total No. Lost 165 Strike Rate 36.54% Stake 260.00 Win P&L 75.93 PoT 29.20% ROI 151.86% System 2 (adapting system on odds basis) Total No. Bets 113 Total No. Wins 35 Total No. Lost 78 Strike Rate 30.97% Stake 113.00 Win P&L 66.16 PoT 58.55% ROI 132.32% As you can see by altering some parameters the No of selections decreases but so does the S/R (only by a samll %), The Stake decreases as does the ROI (again by a small %) But The PoT increases significantly (Profit over Turnover) Based on this in your opinion should the system be altered or not. TIA for any help
  12. Low Odds Profitable Method

    hi so this method consists of picking 3 teams/games at odds of 1.15 - 1.2. this should come to around 1.7 in total. pretty straight forward ill be giving this method a go with a starting bank of £5
  13. 32Red Flush Royale

    New and Improved Flush Royale now get a guaranteed €1000 when you hit the MONSTER ROYALE!! Flush Royale Join us every evening at 9pm (UK time) as we hunt for the best possible hand in Poker. Show down a Royal Flush of any suit using both your hole cards and win our €1,000 Flush Royale Jackpot! Tournament Details Tournament Name Flush Royale (€200 Guaranteed + €1,000 Jackpot!) Date & Time Daily at 9pm (UK time) Buyin €5 + €1 Chips & Blinds 1500 starting chips, 8 minute blinds Rebuys & addon €5 rebuys (1500 chips), €7.50 addon (3k chips) Lobby Tournaments > Special STEVIE all details here (mods add forum links if needed please ...thanks)
  14. UFC TUF 25

    This weekend is International Fight Week for the UFC in Las Vegas , Here's my picks for the 1st of 2 cards this weekend Friday's TUF 25 Finale. TUF 25 Finale Headliner (Gaethje vs Johnson) Gaethje to Win - 7/5 (Bet365) Gaethje to Win by KO/TKO/DQ - 5/2 (Skybet) TUF 25 Finale (Taylor vs Lima) Lima to Win - 7/4 (Betfred) Other Main Card Picks Diakiese to Win - 10/27 (Will Hill) Theodorou to Win - 13/16 (Unibet) Prelim Pick's Ladd to Win - 5/6 (Betway) Hill to Win - 4/11 (Betvictor) Ishihara to Win - 4/11 (Will Hill)
  15. The Research Strategy !!!

    well my previous betting systems simply failed so i thought i would give this a go. i will be starting with £2 (thats all i have in my account) and with the power of research i will be trying to build a solid bank i have decided i will mostly be doing doubles and singles and every bet has to be supported with some solid research. (starting from bet 3 the staking plan is no more than 20% of entire bank roll on each bet but there will be exceptions)
  16. How Much Profit Can I Make ???

    what im going to be doing is seeing how much profit i can make starting with a total balance of £5. I will be using all the techniques i have gathered over the years and implementing them into this. there is no set stake for each bet !!
  17. so the system begins with picking 3 games at 1.7 odds or there abouts creating an accumulator. the total winnings for the accumulator should come to odds of 5. ill be starting with £5 and betting £1 per bet. if 1 bet wins i will get my money back if 2 win ill have doubled my starting stake ETC.
  18. Doubles Betting Method

    hi so this method starts with picking 2 teams on 1 bet at odds of 1.5 to make the double. i will begin with £1 if i win ill be up to £2 if i win again ill be up to £4. once £4 has been reached i will restart at £1 and continue. the aim is to see how much profit i can make. hope this makes sense lol
  19. I'm wondering what approach people take to selecting a bet and deciding if the odds on offer are value. I have designed an excel spreadsheet where I input my opinion of the goals scored percentage per team and it generates a table that I can compare to the odds on offer from a range of bookmakers and can quickly see where the value is. This is the output table for Chelsea v Man Utd. I can quickly see that the value based on my opinion is on over 1.5 goals. The odds are not big, but in the long run the most important thing is value. For someone who wants bigger odds I can see that the next value bet is 'Both Team To Score' @ 1.91 with William Hill which might appeal to most bettors. This approach has refined my betting dramatically and increase my ROI significantly. It also highlights to people that while Both Teams To Score offers quite a bit of value in my opinion I expect this bet to lose 40% of the time so bankroll management is also important. How do you do it?
  20. For the sake of argument lets agree that any bet that requires more than one thing to occur is an accumulator. Some bookies offer a bet that requires two things to happen in the one game for you to win but this is a special offer and in effect is a double (accumulator). I am firmly of the opinion that in the long run you will make more money betting singles versus accumulators but I don't bet enough to have a really statistically relevant sample size (there are very few people who do). If you were to try to convince someone that they could actually make a profit long term by sports betting and the two most important changes that they would have to make would be to bet singles only and use good bankroll management how would you go about trying to convince them to switch away from their weekly 5 fold accumulator.
  21. William Hill Poker Series

    looks like there may be some overlays possible in the main events
  22. Hello Punters, It has been a long time since my last post but I am back, hopefully with something good as I can honestly say this is my life's work. My previous posts have been about finding value in season bets for the Dutch Eredivisie. The quest for value in football bets has never been off my mind but I have been busy with other, more serious issues in my life. Currently life is (almost) back to normal and I am back on the road to Valuetown A little background on myself: I am a 41 year old software developer from Amsterdam with a passion for football and statistics. This last summer I have taken quite a lot of time to work on a model that spits out a number for home win, draw, away win and over/under 2.5 goals for the Premier League, Bundesliga, Primera Division and Eredivisie. The number being the estimated chance of the outcome occurring. And this number can be translated into a price. Sometimes this price, including a safety margin, can be found at one of the bookie websites. More often, it cannot. All I can say about the models is that I use statistical analysis and that a lot of time has gone into this project. I will not disclose any details regarding the models I have built and the way I have built them. I am by no means super intelligent but I am passionate about programming, statistics, football and gambling and I am willing to stick with a problem for a long time if I believe it is worth pursuing. The idea of building these models has been on my mind for years. I have read a lot of books, articles and studies on the subject. It is my dream to work on this full-time. A lot has been written on the concept of value in betting and for some reason a lot of people think this concept does not apply to football. I could not disagree more. Sure, if I were able to pick winners each and every time, I would not mind getting a price of 1,10 every time. But I am really bad at picking winners. I follow my models' recommendations which will often contain long-shots with bloated prices. And there is always a safety margin in place. When looking at the price of a bet a couple of concepts are important to consider. Let's look at a fictitious match where the #1 of the Premier League plays at home against the #14. Would you take 1000-1 on the underdog? I would certainly hope that you would. If you could go all-in pre-flop in a Hold'em cash game with deuce seven against AA for a return of 20-1 you would definitely take it every time because 7-2 has almost 12% equity against AA pre-flop. Chances like these arise quite often in a football season. What if FC Barcelona won a 100% of their home games. Football would be very boring indeed. For the rest of the season I will be posting recommendations. Maybe, at the end of this season, I will have nothing to show for in which case no one will care about my models and methods anyway and I will be laughed off of this forum Will I be able to live my dream? Time will tell. Until now, with only 12 weeks of live testing I have made a rate of return of 32,12%. This is even less than expected but very hopeful. Some weeks the return is negative and other weeks the return is a huge plus. Short term results will vary hugely but the long term results will reflect the value of the system. You can lose AA vs KK in Texas Hold'em 4 times in a row but you will always take the AA because in the long run you will win. There is always variance, ready to kick someone's behind or to hand out presents so short term results don't say very much either way. I realize full well that spitting out a percentage on this forum doesn't mean anything. I could be making it up or exaggerate. You should of course not take my word. At the end of this season the final rate of return will show where my models roughly stand. I have tested them against historical data so I know which result I would like to see in the end. In the coming months I will be posting my recommendations, probably around every Wednesday. The Dutch and German leagues still have 14 and 16 rounds to play this season, 15 rounds for the Premier League and 17 for the Primera Division. I will probably have between 10 and 15 picks per round resulting in approximately 170 picks until the end of the season. Also I will post the results for the previous round and the overall rate of return. For the overall rate of return I will start at 0 again, needless to say. I am very excited and I hope that I have created something valuable, not only for some extra cash but also for the sport of it! The proof of the punting is in the eating! Game on! Greetings, Noneckdude PS I want to thank for their free data and their fantastic articles
  23. Thought I'd finally break through the lurker wall, and become a contributor. I'm just doing this for fun (the correct score doubles), but it may become a serious earner if I can tweak it enough. I've seen some great stuff so far, but never really strayed from my other methods. I thought this is the ideal way to thrash it out once & for all. Enjoy! - NOTE: Odds will be worked out afterward based on Betfair odds at the time of posting. Rules: My strategy is based purely on the strength of and Soccerstats data, from previous results. All previous scorelines and goals are taken into consideration, and then I use what I call "my gut" to pick correct scores. Starting Bank 100pts Each selection will generally be 16 bets (16 x doubles), usually 4 x correct scores, and 2 x matches. 02/02/16 Dijon vs Valenciennes 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 West Ham vs Aston Villa 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 STAKE: 16PTS RESULT: +49.50PTS BANK: 133.50PTS
  24. Quick one, these have been around a while but I'd pretty much dismissed them. Log in daily and you receive a token to play an all-in flip freeroll, no playing or rake requirement, just log in. 1 freeroll every evening but don't know how much longer they will run. Once registered you don't have to turn up or stay logged in. Apparantely I came 5th several nights ago (last time i remembered to reg) winning just over £10 cash. I see there is £50 up top every night. A long shot, but costs nothing for a few seconds effort, someone has to win it.