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Found 3 results

  1. Hi guys have been running a system based on speed ratings, not just on one rating but on several ratings, have been looking at how horses run their races based on course, class, ground and distance then looking at their times/speed rating for these and then putting them in an algorythm and looking for the best runner in the race based on these speed ratings and finding which horse is ths fastest in the race, normally I get 1/3 selections a day, prices do vary but usually are low. for exampl the last 3 selections have been 14/01/18 12.40 Kelso Coole Hall 1.44 Win 15/01/18 13.10 Ayr Grand Morning 5.00 Win 16/01/18 13.25 Here Carole's Vigilante 1.44 Win My stirke rate at present for 2018 is 75% ROI is 115% Avg odds are 3.00 Will post from today to see how it runs
  2. Hello, I am looking for someone who has worked with ELO ratings or even anyone who may be able to offer advice. I am tweaking my own rating system a bit by looking at how ELO ratings are done, so I have put together a spreadsheet of data and ELO rating forumla from another spreadsheet and I have come across an issue with Away Matches. Here is the ELO Data. Crystal Palace Rating -1.01 Liverpool Rating 297.39 Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4 Goal Diff 2 Result 0 Rating Diff -298.40 K Factor 50.00 Expected Result 0.15 Points 0 Crystal Palace New Rating -1.01 Liverpool New Rating 297.39 So the way ELO works is based on the rating from points derived from all the other data, with the points being added/subtracted from the pre-match ratings. Now all this is fine for Home matches and Draws but for Away matched there seems to be no points awared at all. So from the above data, with Liverpool having a higher pre-match rating than Crystal Palace, then Liverpool win by 2 goals difference (Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4) however after all that both teams are awarded 0 points. So, the whole basis for the points is really based on the Result part of the formula (ie 1 for Home win, 0.5 for a draw and 0 for an away win.) Why is this, can anyone explain why. Please look at my spreadsheet and look at the Crystal Palace - Liverpool data on line 95 Thanks -0.24 73.29 148.69 -420.98 -147.40 295.11 -247.54 -148.19 -122.76 0.19 -25.21 247.54 297.39 76.00 -49.68 370.05 -123.30 newdata.xlsm
  3. Hi folks, Does anyone know any good free sites for adjusted speed ratings, class and form ratings if such a thing exists? It seems 99.9% of them you ave to pay lol It would be handy getting as much info as possible on the horses.
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