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Written Thursday January 28th, 2021 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) We lost our lone official pick in the Conference Championship round, which dropped our postseason record against the spread (ATS) from 5-1 to 5-2. That’s still a great record! During the regular season, the picks went 36-31-4. So, overall, we now boast a 41-33-4 ATS record, a 55.4% win rate. Yay! It’s time for our final betting prediction of the season with the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tampa Bay Bucs in Super Bowl LV. Let’s do this! SUPER BOWL: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3 or -3.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCS Sharp bettors often place their bets not very long after the odds hit the board. Once the Conference Championship games were over, the line opened at 3.5 in favor of Kansas City. Early money went to the Bucs, which led the point spread to drop to three points. Since then, most of the action has gone on the Chiefs. From what I’ve read, the number of bets has seen a 3:1 ratio favoring Kansas City, while the total money wagered is even more tilted with a 4:1 ratio. All of this betting action tells me one thing: the wise guys took Tampa Bay, while the general public is hammering the Chiefs. Here is another interesting note: over the past 13 Super Bowls, the early action turned out to be right on 10 occasions. That’s right: sharp money has been a winner in 10 of the past 13 Super Bowls! That makes me want to side with the Bucs even more. I thought Tampa’s defensive line was super impressive in Green Bay. They sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, despite facing one of the top pass protecting offensive lines in football. They will now face a patchwork OL that will now be without their starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, who got hurt against the Bills during the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs were already missing their right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz, who has little chance of suiting up for the Big Game. And they have had to deal with the absence of their starting left guard, Kelechi Osemele, since October. All of those losses are a big blow when facing such a ferocious Bucs pass rush that finished 5th in sacks this season. The Bucs will be looking to avenge a 27-to-24 loss back in Week 12. In that game, the Chiefs stormed out of the gate by grabbing an early 17-0 lead through the first quarter. In that quarter alone, Tyreek Hill caught 7 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. What an incredible performance over just one quarter of play! Here are some noteworthy trends for you: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games as favorites, but 4-1 ATS as playoff favorites; Kansas City has beaten the spread just once over their last 9 games played on grass; Both teams have done well recently when squaring off with a team with a winning record: the Chiefs are 11-5 ATS and the Bucs 5-2 ATS under such circumstances; Tampa has beaten the spread the last four times they have been underdogs. In light of all of this, I am putting my money on Tampa against the spread. The best spread currently available after looking at 10 different online sportsbooks on January 28 is Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds (bwin). Official pick: Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds FIRST QUARTER TOTAL In the Super Bowl’s first quarter, we often see both teams studying each other. They take small jabs at each other, but rarely hit a knockout punch. Also, you see more often receivers dropping catchable balls or QBs throwing less accurate passes. It usually takes a bit of time before guys settle down. On defense, you see a lot of intensity. Players have been waiting two full weeks to finally hit somebody. For these reasons, I am leaning towards betting the “under” in the first quarter. Lean: Under 10.5 first quarter at -120 odds CRUSHING SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION BETS To me, the Super Bowl is like Christmas, but maybe not for the reasons that you might think of. Every year, the Super Bowl comes with a wide array of proposition bets. There are so many of them that there is NO WAY the sportsbooks can hope to have each market priced adequately. There will always be many soft lines. Last year, I traveled to Las Vegas so that I could place bigger bets. I spent three full days tracking the lines from many sportsbooks. I was the nerdy guy sitting on the floor of casinos, doing his calculations via a huge Excel spreadsheet. I ended up placing 11 bets, most of which having positive odds (which means they were underdogs to win). And yet, I finished with a 9-2 record and racking up $8,330 US in net profit. I will be at it once again this year, but from the comfort of my home. Unfortunately, COVID-19 will prevent me from heading to the sin city. I will spend countless hours tracking the lines from at least 10 sportsbooks and looking for the best edges. I am going to share a few picks on prop bets next week via a YouTube video, but you have the opportunity to receive ALL bets offering great value directly in your mailbox. Simply follow this link for details: https://www.professormj.com/products/super-bowl-lv-proposition-bets A big, big thank you for following my weekly NFL column every week, I appreciate you! Enjoy the Super Bowl my friend!!! Professor MJ https://youtu.be/hLvOVzufsgE
Written Wednesday November 25th, 2020 at 4 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) AMAZING! We have two picks with the highest 5-star rating this week! That’s incredible, especially when you consider that we’ve had only three plays rated five stars in the entire 2020 season thus far. Remember that such confidence picks hold a 2-1 record this year. Since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago, we are 7-3 under such circumstances. After giving away ALL of my NFL picks this year, these two gems are available at a $100 fee. I’m so confident in those bets that I’m willing to make you this great offer: If both picks lose, you get your money back; If one pick loses and the other wins, you’re going to get my next 5-star pick for free, which should occur sometime later this season; If both picks win, everyone’s happy and richer! I don’t recommend that you wait any longer before getting those 2 awesome picks because the lines are likely to move against you. I already placed my bets because I suspect the lines will only get worse as money pours in. Simply follow this link. You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to have two 5-star picks during the same week! PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +7 VS MIAMI DOLPHINS Despite an 0-10 record, the Jets have been significantly tougher to beat of late. They fought hard and lost by 8 points or less in three of their past four contests: 18-10 vs Buffalo, 30-27 vs New England and 34-28 at the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Fins stumbled big time last week in Denver. They had been flying high during a five-game winning streak, but fell flat last week. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa even got benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick in order to try to spark a comeback, but to no avail. Head coach Brian Flores has already named Tua his Week 12 starter. Facing the weak Jets secondary is a good spot to rebound, but unlike what happened in Week 6 I do not believe New York will get shutout against Miami. You guessed it, the in-season revenge factor is coming into play here! Joe Flacco has done better than expected, especially since he got all three starting WRs on the field: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims. The last seven times the Jets have been established as home underdogs by oddsmakers, the Jets have beaten the spread five times. Notice that the Dolphins have owned the Jets in recent meetings, though. Indeed, they are posting a 5-0-1 ATS record in the past six games between these two clubs. Quick note: Miami has had to travel quite a bit in recent weeks. They played in Arizona, came back home for their bye week, and traveled all the way to Denver last week. I’m taking the Jets as 7-point underdogs. They fought hard against the Chargers last week, and there is no reason to believe they won’t battle hard again when facing a division rival. I might even put a small bet on over 44.5 points to be scored in that game (quick bonus for you!). PICK #4 (1 STAR): UNDER 44 POINTS NEW ORLEANS-DENVER I tip my hat off to Taysom Hill for playing a solid game against the Falcons last week. Unfortunately, Denver’s defense is a notch better than Atlanta’s. That’s particularly true of the pass defense: the Broncos rank 10th in terms of passer rating allowed. That should force the Saints to keep the ball on the ground more often, which runs the clock more quickly (good for unders). On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that Denver’s offense is having trouble putting up points on the board. They are 27th in the NFL in point scored per game. As for New Orleans’ defense, they have allowed the eigth-fewest points per game. This unit has been even stronger recently, having allowed an average of 8 points to the Bucs, the 49ers and the Falcons. In other words, an offensive outburst by the Broncos this Sunday is highly unlikely! Here is an astounding stat: the under is 17-4 the last 21 times the Broncos were at home facing a team with a winning record! PICK #5 (1 STAR): TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Stud defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was placed on the COVID-19 list Wednesday afternoon. He is in danger of missing the game, which would be a HUGE upgrade for Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s dangerous running game. The Titans were beaten 34-17 by the Colts a couple of weeks ago after leading 17-to-13 at halftime. A blocked punt late in the third quarter was the turning point in this game. I do expect Tennessee to get revenge this week. Philip Rivers got nicked up against the Packers and finished the game on a gimpy leg. Your body does not recover as quickly when you get near 40 years old and he may be bothered by this injury this Sunday. Even though the Titans hold a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine trips in Indy, I expect them to keep the game tight or even upset the Colts. The line shouldn’t be as high, in my opinion. Ryan Tannehill is just more reliable than Rivers, who tends to turn the ball over at bad times. And Derrick Henry is obviously a beast on Tennessee’s side. For these reasons, I’m going with the Titans +3.5 in Indy. UNOFFICIAL PICKS For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you: LEAN #1: Packers -8.5 vs Bears (You don’t want to bet against an angry Aaron Rodgers. That’s probably how he feels after a heart-breaking loss in Indy last week. He won’t take a division rival lightly. Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they lost a game straight up. Talk about rebounding nicely! I’m taking Green Bay despite Chicago being off their bye week. Nick Foles is hurt and bad); LEAN #2: 49ers +7 at Rams (San Francisco is getting 7 additional days of rest after their bye week, while the Rams lose one after playing the Monday nighter. 49ers likely to get a few key players back, including RB Raheem Mostert, WR Brandon Aiyuk, LT Trent Williams and DE Arik Armstead. Huge boost for them. Can Nick Mullens play better?). I hope you enjoyed this write up! Enjoy your weekend! Professor MJ If you wish to obtain the two high-confidence 5-star picks discussed in the video, please follow this link: https://www.professormj.com/products/two-5-star-nfl-picks-for-week-12-2020-season The betting tips are presented by Professor MJ, who teaches statistics at a Canadian university. Join other savvy sports bettors who are CRUSHING their bookies: Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ Link to exclusive mailing list (see bottom of the following page): https://www.professormj.com/pages/nfl-picks-week-12-2020-regular-season