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TenBenny

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Posts posted by TenBenny

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Nagspro, I have been playing around with the software for a few years, initially using it only to predict outright winners for an office pool. More recently, I have been applying the software against the spread. As for historical winning %,  so far I have last years results which ended the year at 61%. This season the program is a more modest 52% overall, basically braking even. Combining all games to date the program is probably around 57% ATS. It's a work in progress but it's a promising start.

    All teams are ranked every week, so this week Dallas gets a bump up the ranks with Romo coming back; so yes in this case the program has already factored Romo's return. Though I suspect Dallas's problems are more than just the QB, really they have struggled to run the ball without DM Murray at RB; Dez Bryant has been injured and playing hurt for part of the season. So I am skeptical that Romo alone will be able to save their season. That will be a really interesting game to watch this week. Miami gets the edge on home field here.

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Steaks, I actually agree with you last week. I should have pulled the Miami game, on the road on a short week playing against NE was too much to overcome even spotting them the 8 points. Those are the types of things the computer doesn't factor.

    Guys here is the first pick on the early game Week 9:

    Cleveland / Cincinnati Over 45

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Steaks&Stakes - I know it seems like a large volume of picks but I actually pulled one game because I didn't like the line which turned out to be Seattle (covered). In my experience it's better to stick with the system, so long as you manage your bankroll and don't go overboard on your bets. We have another full card for Week 8 coming up.

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Well, just back from vacation in time for Week 8. That was a nice turn around indeed last week after the early games to turn a nice profit. Carolina continues to defy the Odds makers, nice pick Danshot.

    Other observations, the Dolphins appear to be a different team since the coaching change, 2 weeks now with convincing victories and a big test coming up a against the Pats.

    Stay tuned for Week 8 picks coming up shortly.

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Danshot, yes I play the picks I post here. The system has been profitable in the past and usually ends up turning a profit by season's end.

    I agree with your insights, the Dolphins look like a new team. What a difference a coach makes, we'll see if it was just a fluke.

    Tough loss for the Falcons against a sewage team like NO. But the Saints always play up at the Dome in night games.

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Guys here are the picks for NFL week 7:

    Atlanta -4.5

    Pittsburgh -2.5

    Indianapolis - 4.5

    Carolina -3

    NY Giants -3.5

    NY Jets +9

    Dallas / NY Giants Over 45

    Texans / Dolphins Over 44.5

    Eagles / Panthers Under 46 

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Guys here are the picks for NFL week 5:

    Arizona -2.5

    Denver -4.5

    NY Giants -7

    Cincinnati -3

    St. Louis +9

    Atlanta / Washington Over 48

    NY Giants / San Fran Over 43

    Kansas City / Chicago Over 45

    Denver / Oakland Over 43.5

    Detroit / Arizona Under 45

    Green Bay / St. Louis Under 46

     

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    The algorithm uses a combination of team strength, weekly match-up, and home field advantage to come up with a composite ranking. The higher ranked teams in theory are more likely to win, and also cover the spread. Of course that leads to mostly favorites and a few dogs selected each week. The Over/Under plays are similarly based on team offense and defensive rankings; a composite score for each match-up is used to determine which games have a higher scoring potential - those are selected as Overs, and conversely the games with the lowest scoring potential are selected as Under. I then rule out any games where the lines are too large, since in my experience the probably of covering goes down as the lines get bigger. That's the basic idea in an nutshell, to let the machine pick the best games and attempt to reduce human/emotional errors. I am still tinkering and making improvements over time but the basic ideas are described here.

    You are correct about the lines posted, they pay 1.9 (110 to win 100). 

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    No problem, you are welcome to post the results for everyone to follow. I think you missed one game in the week 2 summary, I have the following:

    Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 44 (L)

    Arizona -7 (L)

    Atlanta -6 (W)

    Buffalo -5.5 (L)

    Carolina -3 (W)

    Denver -6.5 (L)

    Buffalo / NY Giants Over 46 (L)

    Cincinnati / Kansas City Over 45 (W)

    NY Jets/ Miami Under 42 (W)

    Tampa / Carolina Under 40 (L)

    Week 2: 4 of 10

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Guys here are the rest of the picks for NFL week 4:

    Arizona -7

    Atlanta -6

    Buffalo -5.5

    Carolina -3

    Denver -6.5

    Buffalo / NY Giants Over 46

    Cincinnati / Kansas City Over 45

    NY Jets/ Miami Under 42

    Tampa / Carolina Under 40

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Danshot, yes those were the even lines available at the time I posted the picks. The picks come from various algorithms I have developed over the years (I am a software engineer by trade). Unfortunately, there is no additional reasoning, or insight I can provide, the program just outputs the games that have the best chance of covering. I have had pretty good success for the last couple years and I think a success rate around 60% is possible for the season.

    We start this week with a loss coming up a point short on the early game. I'll be posting the remaining week 4 games when I have some free time later today. Stay tuned.

    NFL 2015 Picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Guys here are the NFL picks for week 3:


    Arizona -6.5
    Green Bay -6.5
    Pittsburgh -1.5
    NY Jets -2
    Denver -3
    Cincinnati +2.5
    St. Louis/Pittsburgh Over 47.5
    Dallas/Atlanta Over 45
    NY Giants/Washington Over 44 (W)
    Carolina/New Orleans Over 43
    Miami/Buffalo Under 43
    NY Jets/Philadelphia Under 46

    Good luck gents!

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