wicked
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Posts posted by wicked
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Re: Best bet of the day 9th Dec 18:20 kemnpton - Barnezet to WIN This is a value bet in my opinion. Forecast In Sporting Life at 4/1 and now available on Betfair at 24. On a hatrick bid, has won in the class and at the distance, and has proven capable at Kempton. Has a definite chance and should be under 10's.
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Re: Best bet of the day - Nov 18th
Didn't know about that - sorry - in view of the current price drift I'll say scrap it - no bet.Cant accept conditional bets in this thread Wicked, its a tip or its not mate? -
Re: Best bet of the day - Nov 18th 13:40 Market Rasem - Syncronised to win O'Neill/McCoy in beginners chase, when favourite at odds less than 7/4 has been outstanding in recent years: 2004 5/9 wins 2006 7/7 wins 2007 4/4 wins 2008 1/1 wins 2009 1/1 wins That's a 100% record since 2006. Please note this only stands if there continues to be market support and the odds remain 7/4 or less at the start and the horse goes off as clear favourite. Currently it meets the criteria.
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Re: Best bet of the day 17th Nov 13:10 Folkestone - LAY Aegean Dawn Odds on having won a maiden nhf readily enough but it's a lay for me as I have no faith in the trainer's record for such events - 0/38 in novice hurdles is not good, which includes a previous odds on fav.
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Re: Best bet of the day 16th Nov 12.40 Leic - Spring Jim to win Favs tend to do well in nov hurdles . Even though Spring Jim has yet to run over hurdles his trainer has a record of 13/18 wins when saddling the favourite in such races. That's an 81% strike rate which makes odds of evens look pretty generous.
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Re: basic system - 1 month trial I might be able to save you some time here thanks to the systems builder that comes with horseracebase. Fav/jointfav or co fav lto, not 1st lto, CD winner, last ran 1 - 15 days.
Total bets since 2003: 1995 Wins: 343 S/R 17.19% Return at SP: -307.76 Longest losing run: 34 (3 times) Longest winning run: 3 (5 times) Unfortunately the strike rate is so poor that even a staking plan is unlikely to help. You might be able to profit laying them using a loss recovery staking plan (dangerous as hell by the way - not recommended unless you really know what you're doing), as with Betfair prices and commissions at level stakes laying you'll still only just break even. I've tried a host of filters but I'm sorry to say that I can't find any easy adaptation. I hope you don't mind me throwing this in - I'm nothing to do with horseracebase by the way - just a satisified customer who started using them when the RP went into self-destruct mode. The site is fast, affordable and provides masses of info in a usable form. Selections for systems like this can be produced in seconds daily. Best of luck.Period Bets Wins SP Points Strike Rate 2009 131 27 -10.79 20.61% 2008 360 63 -59.61 17.5% 2007 295 57 -34.06 19.32% 2006 316 49 -45.09 15.51% 2005 304 51 -53.61 16.78% 2004 309 44 -75.12 14.24% 2003 280 52 -29.48 18.57% -
Re: Turftrax Hi Cookie - been using turftrax for over a year and have just cancelled my subscription. Good points: 1. Cheap - for a fiver a month you get a lot. 2. Good graphical form display for runners based on going, distance, class, speed (tutftrax own) etc and trainer/jockey stats. Info not as detailed as you get on the Racing post site but I have found it helpful for studying form. 3. Includes coverage of Irish racing. 4. There's a lot of detail given if you're into in depth study. 5. Good head to head coverage when runners have competed before. Negative points and why I'm cancelling. 1. Frustratingly slow to load pages even with broadband, especially once racing starts for the day. 2. Predictor just doesn't cut it for me. Supposedly takes account of 30 different aspects of form (which are not detailed anywhere and which the help desk will not disclose) and the predictor rankings change throughout the day. It seems to be very heavily affected by changes in odds. Top predicted is often the favourite and you don't need a specialist prediction to tell you that. I have found the predictor to be a major and most unprofitable distraction. 3. It's a shame but there is no members forum to discuss or share ideas on how to use the turftrax info. I have searched numerous times to see if I can find info or help for a way to use the turftrax detail profitably, but there seems to be no independent info anywhere. I guess I really started with turftrax thinking it would give me a quick solution and easy route to profits. I do far better when I use the racing post and sporting life, which are of course free. Turftrax gives a lot of good coverage, and hell, it's only a fiver so play around with it for a month and see if it helps you. Just my personal opinion if there are any turftrax fans out there wanting to take exception. bd.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 06/12/07 7.20 Wolverhampton, THE MIGHTY ONE - LAY rpf 6/4 Betfair 2.36 A short price based on 3rd in a debut race classed by the racing post as "ordinary". Completely different race conditions here on the all weather but don't fance the price with a trainer's record that shows as 1/41 with 2yo's at the course, a jockey who has raced on 52 2yo's without a winner, and has had no wins in any of 45 maidens. Lay.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 05/12/07 1.20 Catterick - CYBORG DE SOU - LAY, rpf 11/4 Betfair 5.3 Unfortunately some of the lay value has gone from this already as others highlight it as a lay. May be best to wait til near the off as the price might well shorten back in. Horse is up in trip today and hasn't won in nearly 3 years, though has had a few placed efforts including last time. I feel there are several in the line up with just as good a chance, and if it gets competitive then a hot jockey might work the magic. I don't however regard Larry McGrath as a hot jock. 1 hurdles win from 52 starts this year of which 0/14 in chases, and a history of 1 hurdles win at Catterick from 42 course starts.
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 4/12/07 1.00 Wolverhampton, PERLACHY, LAY rpf 7/2, Betfair 3.55 Whatever else this may have going for it the trainer and jockey stats certainly don't stack up. Jockey has ridden for this trainer 50 times, won once; has ridden 3yo's in maidens 63 times, won once; trainer has had no winner in 2007 from 72 runners. Lay - 0/73 looks perfectly feasible.
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Re: Best Bet of the Day 03/12/07
2.40 Wolverhamton' date=' NATURAL RHYTHM, LAY rpf 3/1, Betfair 4.8[/quote'] :D I do like a consistnet trainer - now 0/84 for 2yo's. UNPLACED :D -
Re: Best Bet of the Day 03/12/07 2.40 Wolverhamton, NATURAL RHYTHM, LAY rpf 3/1, Betfair 4.8 2 yo nursery so not a lot to go on and selection ran well last time, but is carrying topweight today, has several others as well or better rated on what they've done, and a trainer with a lousy record for 2yo's - is this going to be Mr Chapman's first 2 yo winner in five years and 83 runners, or is it to be 0/84? I'm laying for the latter.
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Re: Lay Of The Day 13/9/2007 4.00 Sandown - SALIENT - LAY rpf 100/30, Betfair 3.2 There are enough competitors in this race with good recent form to make the price look layable. Add to that a trainer who is 0/38 at the course and a jockey who is 0/27 riding 3yo's for the trainer, and 0/18 on 3yo's at Sandown.
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Re: Wednesday Lay of the day 2.30 Salisbury, PAVEROC, LAY rpf 3/1 Betfair 3.6 I'm mainly ignoring the rpf & ts ratings here as it's a 2yo race and the ratings are pretty meaningless (in my opinion) at this stage of a horses career. Paveroc has been raced in higher class but failed to quicken when called on and didn't seem anything special. Once raced Redsensor strikes me as a very real contender, and being a 2yo race there could be other hidden talents. Also consider trainer this year 2/57 with 2yo maidens, 2/35 with 2yo's under todays jockey, 1/31 with 2yo's at Salisbury the past 5 seasons and jockey 2/49 this year with 2yo maidens.
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Re: Friday ~ Lay Of The Day 6.25 Wexford, North Shore, LAY rpf 7/4 Betfair 2.68 I'm not convinced that North Shore will take this as easily as the Betfair odds might suggest. There is no disputing that the horse has been going well recently over hurdles, but his record on the flat doesn't stack up with 0 wins from 20, and just 3 3rds over much shorter. Jockey's record of 1/21 at Wexford and 1/21 on 4yo's+ doesn't inspire me to back him either. Well down on rpr rates too, so assuming he reverts to his flat norm he'll be well beaten.
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Re: Mondays Lays 3.50 Ripon, Ahlawy, LAY rpf 12/1 Betfair 5.0 There is obviously some interest in this one after a good effort last time, finishing a close up 2nd, but that was a modest, lower class, ladies event. Today looks a much stiffer task. Has one win to his credit from 13 starts and has never won or placed at this level.
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Re: Sunday Lays Thanks Danny and well done with yours. A great shame that jackg99's winning run has come to an end, but congrats to him and many thanks to him for sharing his expertise. An unbroken run of some 30 bets, all at good layable odds. I don't think I have seen this degree of success in laying anywhere in the past 5 years. An outstanding achievement.
:clap:clap :cheers :clap:clap
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Re: Sunday Lays 2.20 Market Rasen, Airedale Lad, LAY rpf 6/1 Betfair 5.6 This one has shown little in most of its starts to date and remains a maiden after 33 runs. Has only raced once before in this class or higher and was unplaced. Trainer has yet to find a winner after 23 runners, and jockey not a star at the course with 2/56.
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Re: LAY OF THE DAY ~ Wed 1st Aug...
;) 3RD - A good start for the afternoon :)1.35 Redcar, Howdigo, LAY rpf 3/1, Betfair 4.3 Seemed to improve in last race under a "patient ride" to finish 3rd of 6 but was still over 3l adrift of the winner. Several in the race which seem to have just as good a chance, and what puts me off him is the trainer's record at Redcar of 0/15 combined with a jockey who is 1/36, of which 0/14 are 2yo's. -
Re: LAY OF THE DAY ~ Wed 1st Aug... 1.35 Redcar, Howdigo, LAY rpf 3/1, Betfair 4.3 Seemed to improve in last race under a "patient ride" to finish 3rd of 6 but was still over 3l adrift of the winner. Several in the race which seem to have just as good a chance, and what puts me off him is the trainer's record at Redcar of 0/15 combined with a jockey who is 1/36, of which 0/14 are 2yo's.
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Re: Lay of the Day 30/7/07 3.15 Wolverhampton, Dixey, rpf 7/2, Betfair 3.55 Carrying quite a bit more than several others that have run well on the aw. Debatable whether she can repeat the performance from Kempton with 8lbs more, and lto at Ascot wasn't anything special at all. Trainer 1/21 with 2yo's at Wolverhampton, and jockey 0/4. They seem to be great with 3yos but something lacking with the younger ones.
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Re: Lay of the Day 29/7/07 1.40 Ascot, Visit, LAY rpf 6/1 Betfair 3.95 Odds too low for a race made up of proven winners and with the selection down the list on both rpr and ts. Trainer is good but for whatever reason doesn't do well with 2yo's in group races at Ascot 1/20. we also have a jockey whose record here is nothing special with 9/160 overall (5%) and 0/29 with 2yo's.
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Re: LAY of the day 27/07/07
:loon UNPLACEDAscot 2.45, Majestic Marauder, LAY rpf 5/2 Betfair 2.66 Reported as working well at home but unraced and up against a number of others with good pedigrees. Worth laying at the price in view of jockes record 8/150 at Ascot overall (5%) of which 0/26 on 2yo's. Several other jockeys with better Ascot results in competition. -
Re: LAY of the day 27/07/07 Ascot 2.45, Majestic Marauder, LAY rpf 5/2 Betfair 2.66 Reported as working well at home but unraced and up against a number of others with good pedigrees. Worth laying at the price in view of jockes record 8/150 at Ascot overall (5%) of which 0/26 on 2yo's. Several other jockeys with better Ascot results in competition.
Lay Of The Day 2nd February
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Lay Of The Day 2nd February 1.30 Southwell Aamen LAY 2 points Really can't see why this one is being viewed by many as a dead cert. Yes won well last time in a crap race under a different jockey, but a few days previously didn't do so well. Carrying 9st13 today whereas the most carried before is 9st3 - anyone's guess if that'll be OK after 14f. Has raced against Lady Pilot before and been beaten. Global Strategy and Merrion Tiger both excel at Southwell. Trainer has only had the one win from his last 16 at the track, jockey 0/6 at Southwell. An amateur low grade race is not one where I would be backing heavily an odds on favourite. Defintely one to lay.