AlanDB
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Posts posted by AlanDB
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Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Nice to see you back for the upcoming season plopplop. Just a quick question (which may have been asked before :unsure). Do you think the very start and end of the season may be a bit more unreliable? That's what I'd expect, but what do I know :loon
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Re: 456 system
Yeah the big priced winners are a bit scary, but a nice profit! Do you post the laying selections anymore?Thanks Alan, let's hope this one sorts itself out soon eh? Yes I still operate the lay system - I've expanded it so there are more qualifiers and it churns out a steady profit, not for the faint hearted tho as you know mate! :ok -
Re: 456 system Nice to see you back with another system Danny :) . Do you still use the laying system? That seemed to make a few quid.
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Re: Wimbledon Tennis My tip for wimbledon is lay anyone British :rollin
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Re: Horsey price movements
Cheers Aliando. A reply within a few minutes :nanagood luck mate! have a look at this thread also http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=33777&highlight=drifters -
Hello everyone The market volatility we see in horse racing seems to me almost unique to the sport. It isn't particularly unusual to see a horse double or half in price before the off. This leads me on to certain ways in which this could be exploited and a couple of questions which those of you with more experience may be able to answer :) 1. In general do the odds of the favourite tend to shorten? This would to me seem the general consensus, although by no means black and white. I have dabbled with trading the exchange markets before the off and it seemed that favourites priced under evens often tended to get shorter, although I have no data to confirm this. Perhaps a favourites price is just as likely to drift as to steam, but if there were some stats available, it may provide a trading opportunity. 2. Is there any value to be achieved betting on steamers or drifters? With the degree of price movements possible within the markets, it would seem that this area has huge potential. It is quite possible that in a horse race the same horse could be backed at odds of 2.0 or 4.0 depending when you placed your bet. Now obviously 4.0 is value compared to 2.0, but this does not necessarily mean that 2.0 is bad value or that 4.0 is good value - just a comparitive measure between the 2. I think I remember reading that steamers only win 3% more often that drifters. This would suggest that backing steamers holds little value, but it does not automatically follow that backing drifters represents value. From this, if you consider the following statements: Backing drifters to win Backing drifters to place Laying drifters to win Laying drifters to place Backing steamers to win Backing steamers to place Laying steamers to win Laying steamers to place There may be value to be found in one of the above, but surely not all of the above as some are mutually exclusive. At the same time, none of them may prove profitable. I did have a quick look at some of the data from Betfair, but to be honest there's so much of it and it would be a lot of hard work and computer know-how to get anything meaningful from it :loon I hope I've explained myself well here. Perhaps it will provoke some discussion even if no-one understands what I'm on about :unsure
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Re: Bookies Indicator System
Hello hgrs and :welcome to PL. Good luck with your system. Couple of quick questions if I may: 1. Which bookmakers do you use for the early prices you got? Is there enough liquidity at the exchanges to do better? 2. You say most end up starting as faves - would it be profitable to trade the selections then? All the best AlanThis selection method requires no form study whatsoever. A friend of mine has written a program for me that monitors bookmakers' price trends at the front end of the market in the morning and around 1200 each day indicates the value selections for the days' racing. Most end up starting favourite. I will post them up here after I have got my own bets on. I stake them all to win with 5% of a bank and recalculate the bank at the end of each day. I'll use a £1000 bank here and results will be at the bookmaker prices taken. These were yesterdays' selections>>>> 2.05 KAVATCHA 6/4won...sp1/1 2.35 DUSKY WARBLER 2/1won...sp11/10 2.55 NORTON SAPPHIRE 2/1won...sp7/4 3.40 JIM LAD 3/1Lost...sp10/3 4.00 FROSTY JACK 4/1Lost...sp11/8 5.10 THE MIGHTY BARD 7/4Lost...sp13/8 7.15 NO WORRIES YET 7/4won...sp2/1 -
Re: sports betting is for winners!
Just to add my 2 pennorth to that. If ever the Betfair price is lower than the bookies then there is the chance of an arb - back with the bookies, lay with Betfair. Be careful of working out commission etc but it may be possible to lock in a bit of guaranteed profit.sorry..meant to say 'if betfair price is lower and than the bookies'...then the bookies price is value.. -
Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop
I have to disagree with this QuantumParadox. Any mathematician will tell you it's about finding value in the odds, therefore beating the bookies overround or the commission at the exhanges and finding a price where (in the event of a 'back' bet) it is higher than the probable chance of winning. Conversely if you are a layer you need to find value by identifying odds that are shorter than the probable chance of winning. Once this can be applied, coupled with the correct staking system it is possible to make a profit. You can't liken gambling on horses or football to a casino where for example with roulette it is just not possible to overcome the house edge (0 and 00) and achieve any long term profit. What I will agree on is that it is very difficult to get gains in the long term, however not impossible - there are a small percentage of full time gamblers making a decent profit. Trading is a different kettle of fish altogether. If you master it, then it is quite possible to make a very handsome amount of money from it.somebody called "Paul" may disturb you as hi did me asking 197 pounds to sell you his "betting revolution" i tell him and everybody that this is rubbish, there isnt any revolution or system, to guarantee you profits by betting, i tried his method in tennis market a year ago, and the result ( back and lay same event in different times at different odds to secure profit or just not to loose) proved to be catastrophic method, i lost my full account in a month, hehehe, how can choose whom to back guys???? it is matter of luck as everything in betting, battle against probabilities, the winner is ALWAYS the bookie, or the runners of a betting exchange on long term basis, i stopped do this now, i am just betting for my pleasure, and i live from my work, and my business, its really funny some people are convinced they can win the war against probabilities, simply they CAN NOT, you should ask the view of mathematicians specialists in probabilities about this, it is labyrinth from where nobody should escape bye bye boys and good luck! that is the only system to win in betting! -
Re: ----> Home Teams For 1% <---- A shame to see you lose and the bank busted Player. It's nice to see people posting strategies here even if they don't prove profitble because there's always lessons to be learnt along the way. They can be fun to read too even if you know the chance of success is minimal. Even if the only thing this thread has achieved is to warn against martingale / progressive staking then something has been achieved. All the best with your future bets :ok
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Re: ----> Home Teams For 1% <---- Nice to see you still progressing in the profit with this one Player :clap
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Re: In Play Draw
Hello zal007. There are many ways to trade the football and laying / backing the draw or vice versa is one of them. I think if you trawl through the threads here you'll find a bit of discussion about it. I havent tried it to any great extent myself. Something that can go against you with the method you describe is if the underdog scores first - the draw odds will probably drop further. Also, 2 goals in quick succession can screw you because the market may not go back in-play between the goals. Having said this though there is money to be made trading the football and there are probably some people on here who can give some great advice :okHas anyone experimented with the draw during a match. I'm thinking of the following in certain games where I don't believe a draw will occur - based on previous form. (1) Wait for 10 mins for draw odds to fall slightly (2) Lay draw (3) If goal is scored then back draw odds if increased beyond lay for profit - balanced for a return regardless of result. I will try this out - obviously can't record as a system as inplay and I'm aware there are rules about this as i can't post - but perhaps could put results I'm in spreadsheet after 10 - 20 games if things work. Anyway - logically I guess this should work as percentage of goaless draws is quite low and if you can wait 10 - 15 mins before laying it may work. Advice / comments welcome?? Zal. -
Re: Lay down and die
I think an extra zero might have crept in to the overall profit figure there Aliando :lol . 100.84 me thinks. Mind you, if the profit was 1000.84 already I might marry you :loonglad to get the weekend over and done with - back to profit making! :loon todays profit - 3x10pts = 30pts :dude todays losses - nil :D todays overall return - +30pts :nana OVERALL STATS Number of Horses Laid: 73 Number of Horses That Won: 15 Number of Horses That Placed: 17 Number of Horses Finishing Out of Placings: 29 Non-Runners: 12 Total Profit Returned: 460pts Total Losses: -359.16pts Overall Profit/Loss: +1000.84pts -
Re: easymoney strategy All the best with your system Spartacus :) P.S. Never mind gazabroad, I've only got 4 inches... but some women like it that wide :rollin
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Re: New system=over 650% profit over 5 weeks! That's a whopping amount of profit in such a short timescale, but 5 weeks isn't long enough to test a system. If I had to take a guess I would say months or years would be needed. Be wary of massive amounts of profit over a short period of time - would probably take a progressive staking plan, doubles / accumulators or a long shot coming in to achieve this I reckon. Is the profit to level stakes and can you provide details the system?
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Re: Bees Knees Greyhound Lays If my calculations are correct, you've had 80 selections, producing 74 winners and 6 losers. A strike rate of 92.5%. A phenomenal start :clap
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Re: Value Betting Hello and :welcome Seems like sound logic to me. Have you considered laying any selections at the betting exchanges if there is value to be had there? Maybe harder to do due to the generally high odds of lay bets.
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Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System All the best with the 2007 run-in. Seems like a sound idea. Macclesfield have already done well to pull themselves out of the drop-zone.
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Re: How do i work out football points? This is how I'm reading it Guvna: League Diff + Home form - Away Form + Home Overall Form League Diff = -16... add the Home form to this... adding -7 means you're subtracting 7... so we've got -23... subtract the Away Form... subtracting -12 means you're adding 12... so we've got -11... add the Overall Form... adding -3 means you're subtracting 3... so we end up with -14. I need a beer after that :lol :beer
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Re: How do i work out football points?
I get a different answer to you Guvna: League Diff + Home form - Away Form + Home Overall Form (-16) + (-7) - (-12) + (-3) = -16-7+12-3 = -14 At least one of us is wrong :lolCan i just run through quickly to make sure its right? Im posative it is. Ive did the Home Form and Away form from the last 6 matches. Home Team: Charlton (Charlton vs. Chelsea) Odds To Win: 6/1 (William Hill) Leauge Difference: -16 (Compared to Chelsea) Home Form: -7 Away Form: -12 Overall: -3 (-16) + (-7) + (-12) + -3 = -6 Which would recommend me not to go on Charlton. But this wont guarantee a 100% definate win, it would state not to back Charlton based on previous games. If its correct im gonna go for a triple on saturday with 3 teams and let you know what i went on and how it goes. -
Re: The 10 Year Plan
Hello WFTE. Nice to see a long term strategy here and all the best with it :ok . Are you sticking with certain bookies? The only reason I ask is cos I also bet on Ferrer to beat Stepanek but managed 1.69 on Betfair (I think it's trading at about 1.67 now). Then again you can't do doubles on betfair :lolWeek 3 : 15th - 21st Jan Ferrer to beat Stepanek 1.61 Roddick to beat Safin 1.50 £30 win double (W.Hills) -
Re: DC Lays - Yield +5.75%
Thanks for that Danny :) P.S. I'm a Watford fan - thanks for the only win we've had all season ;). Then again, I think you stand a much better chance than us of staying up :lolHi Alan, thank you mate.:ok Firstly, the answer is NO I'm not worried about the number of runners anymore. I've modified things so that I don't have to worry this issue, although sometimes if there are more than two horses to be laid in the same race and there are fewer than 8 runners I will state not to play in the thread. SPs can be found on Sporting Life website (Live shows) and also BBC ceefax. Cheers Danny -
Re: DC Lays - Yield +5.75% Hi Danny. Congratulations on the profitable start to the new laying thread :clap . Just a couple of questions. Firstly, are you sticking to the 8+ runners rule that was used in your original thread? Also, (and this may be a really dumb question) where do you find the SP of a horse?
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Re: Staking plan for trading
Think I misunderstood originally... what you are saying is make my lay liability the same as my back bet would be? Sometimes I make the easiest things complicated :lolI would say that if you back first then use a fixed stake and if you lay first then use a fixed liability which is the same as your back stake would be. A free back/lay calculator is available at: http://eskei.com/betting/
The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System Good to have a relative newbie contribute a system Rushian and it looks like you've put a lot of work into it :). These kinda systems interest me greatly and I wish you all the best with it.