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    Custom Cut got a reaction from beaker1 in Royal Ascot 2015 ~ Thursday 18th June   
    3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes Judging by Jim Bolger's comments, and by the fact he made sure that her 1000 Guineas win was strongly run, I absolutely think this horse can benefit from the 4 furlong step up. My only concern is that this is somewhat of a diversion from the original Bolger plan to bring her straight to the Irish derby but this is by far the most likely winner. Curvy downed Canaletto last time, but Canaletto flattered that form by improving significantly for Epsom. Indeed AOB said after the defeat to Curvy it was very unlikely Canaletto would go for the derby. Wedding Vow ran a cracker to finish second to Legatissimo (and thrashing subsequent g3 runner up Carla Bianca) but a shocker not to win the Lingfield Oaks trial. Given Moore has chosen Curvy I can't fancy this horse, JOB has done very little on the second string this year. Of the shorter priced British horses Pandora seems OK but they all seem a bit average. Entertainment is the big priced alternative for me. Finished 7 and a half behind Crystal Zvezda (or 4 behind the runner up) but you can add around a length and a half to that defeat as Doyle weighed in 2 pounds light. However, the horse was well supported in the betting that day and hung all over the place, and never really got settled. Going up 2 furlongs can only help as she stayed on really well at the finish. Her previous run was 6L down to Diamondsandrubies on ground softer than ideal, form which I felt was very much franked by Diamondsandrubies's outrageously unlucky 4th in the Oaks, who had a tough job to simply remain on her feet. Pleascach 5/6 win BetVictor, Entertainment 33/1 e/w William Hill 4.20 Gold Cup Whether or not Forgotten Rules runs I don't see him being value on the ground he'll encounter. While I think he's a class act I didn't really like his reappearance, most of the horses there needed the run and his only challenger, Answered, found the trip 2 furlongs too far. Don't think there's any star in the rest of the field so I'm going to look to Aidan O'Brien. He's won this 6 of the last 9 runnings so knows what it takes. Ryan Moore likely had a choice and chose Kingfisher over Simenon, who's not a bad animal himself. I thought it was telling that immediately after his Leopardstown win the Gold Cup was identified as the target for Kingfisher. Largely used as a pacemaker last year, Kingfisher needed his first run back before scoring in listed company at Leopardstown. Only won by half a length but travelled like an absolute dream, with less than 2 furlongs left and several lengths to make up the inexperienced Donnacha O'Brien finally popped the question and once he got going he absolutely ate up the ground and probably had more in hand than shown in the bare result. With Moore on and reaching his seasonal target, I think he can pull plenty of improvement out and has a good shot of landing this race. Kingfisher 12/1 e/w Paddy Power
  2. Like
    Custom Cut got a reaction from beaker1 in Royal Ascot 2015 ~ Wednesday 17th June   
    Decent day today, only doing 2 of tomorrow's races. 2.30 Jersey Stakes Lots to like here and I think Ivawood is absolutely there for the taking under 5 pound penalty. Bossy Guest was unlucky not to beat Ivawood at level weights in the 2000. Toscanini is immensely promising, James Doyle doesn't come to Ireland for rubbish and he came here for this horse, ground was absolutely an excuse for me, was described as good to yielding but it was soft at best. Devonshire is the other godolphin horse who I've like for a while (Doyle skipped French Guineas to ride this in a Leopardstown trial) but I don't think this horse is fast enough for 7 furlongs and though Buick is as good as any jockey, Doyle had first choice and he picked Toscanini. Sir Isaac Newton is the one I want to keep onside. Was extremely green when winning a good Gowran maiden by over 3 lengths (really awkward going past the leader) and there's no way AOB would send him here if he hadn't sorted him out mentally. Ryan Moore also picks him. I've always felt this horse had big promise and now he's got the win under his belt I think he can take down Ivawood getting 5 pounds. He was talked about as a derby horse, I think 1m2f will turn out his optimum trip but I think this horse has a good enough turn of foot for the race. I took the 16/1 available yesterday, but such is the promise of this horse that whatever price he's backed into will, I believe, turn out to be value. Sir Isaac Newton win 12/1 William Hill. 4.20 Prince of Wales' stakes Free Eagle is an exceptional horse, had no right to go so close on heavy last year. The conditions of the race are ideal and Weld should have him ready. 3/1 is not the worst price. Hard to think The Grey Gatsby has trained on after those 2 runs this year and Moore deserting him. I think Ectot is unproven at the level he needs to win this, and while Cannock Chase and Western Hymn are very good the horse I fancy to take down Eagle is Spielberg. This horse combines 2 things I like very much: Japanese middle distance runners and Christophe Soumillon. The horse should be very happy with the good to firm we should see tomorrow, and was really just being given a prep last time over soft, finishing well but never really put into the race. I'm hoping Soumillon can be more forward with this horse than the standard Japanese tactic of going as far back as possible. His 3/4 length defeat of Gentildonna is top form as well as his finish in the Japan Cup in what I think is not the optimum trip. 1m2f on good to firm will suit him down to the ground. You don't win a Japanese 1m2f group 1 without being a top horse, I don't think this horse has slowed down since and with one of the world's best jockeys on board I think he is primed to perform right up to his best. Spielberg win 10/1 William Hill.
  3. Like
    Custom Cut got a reaction from beaker1 in Royal Ascot 2015 ~ Tuesday 16th June   
    2.30 Queen Anne Stakes Solow for me the best horse in the world. Plenty of pace and with 9 wins from the last 10 I think this horse can afford the race to unravel in any manner. Able Friend is a huge wildcard but I would struggle to back it at 9/4 as it never seems to beat much in Hong Kong. Solow 6/4 win betfred. 3.05 Coventry Stakes Very strong race here with lots of depth. Air Force Blue ran a very good debut with the form working out very well (2nd and 3rd won very handily next time out) but I question whether AOB will have him far enough along to win this one. Round Two looks decent but the race is too strong to back it at so short. Buratino is the real star for me here. Winning a 6f 2yo listed race by 6 lengths is exceptional, and the field was well strung out even beyond the second place horse. Buratino 8/1 win betfred. 3.40 Kings Stand Stakes Sole Power is a fair enough price at 7/2 with perfect conditions. Bit of depth to this race with Spirit Quartz a potential improver if he can settle better. Wind fire was also unlucky last time but I'm a big fan of Mecca's Angel. Has only lost once since being a 2yo, though it's possibly a negative that the trainer has never before put him in a group one. Trainer doesn't think he wants fast ground but good ground should be perfect, given this horse has won registering some very fast times. His last performance under penalty at Longchamp was exceptional, with several top performers in behind. Mecca's Angel 8/1 win betfred. 4.20 St. James's Palace Stakes Looks like a match here between Gleneagles and Make Believe. All the hype is about Gleneagles but I don't think that's fair on Make Believe. To beat a subsequent French derby winner by an easy 3 lengths is a brilliant feat. If Make Believe's performance was in England or Ireland I think he'd be a lot shorter. Make Believe 7/2 win ladbrokes. 5.00 Ascot Stakes Really strong hand here for Willie Mullins. Digeanta is a bigger price and for me too big. Was backed into 3/1 for a quite hot handicap at Leopardstown recently and finished close enough to suggest still in top form. Went very close in the Cesarewitch last year and I think this horse can excel at the extreme distance. Asbury Boss is a very unexposed handicapper with only 6 runs yet. Seasonal reappearance was a very good third of 19 in a pretty good Curragh handicap and was also very close in the Irish Cesarewitch. Another one who I think should stay on at the extra distance. Buckland isn't necessarily one who I think should be favourite but is a very consistent performer and has good course form. The horse has won off 86 and 91 and tackles this off 88. The horse seemed to travel well here lto over 2 miles but couldn't find extra. Really sticks out as one to improve for the step up in trip. Digeanta e/w 16/1 racebets, Asbury Boss e/w 16/1 Skybet, Buckland 25/1 e/w Skybet. 5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes Really weak race for and very tough to make a case for a lot of them. With that in mind Washington DC looks by far the most likely winner. 2 lengths down to round two lto gives him the best form in the race, and with AOB the trainer the best prospects of improvement. Having raced 3 times already the horse has had ideal preparation, and I think he should be a fair bit shorter. Nelspruit is a good horse to also back at a big price. Richard Hannon's record in 2yo Stakes races is exceptional. This horse is second string, which is fair enough but I think he just ran into one in Buratino. As mentioned before the field was really well strung out behind Nelspruit and I think he has a realistic shot of winning. Washington DC win 11/2 Coral, Nelspruit 25/1 win betfred.
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