[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 24th & 25th]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 24th & 25th I guess I will write this in the wrong thread but don´t see one for weekend fixtures. My recommendation for the weekend is a tricky one, but is based on solid ideas. Levante - Vallecano Back Vallecano DNB @ 1.81 with Sbobet First of all, lets look at last 2 years matches between these teams, although that will not tell us much: [TABLE=class: result-table, width: 579] [TR=class: rtitle first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: left]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.27[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.33[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.16[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]01.02.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Copa del Rey 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: left]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.41[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.21[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.88[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]15.01.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: left]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.69[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.74[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.64[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]09.01.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: left]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.92[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.43[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]4.00[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]30.08.2013[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2012/2013[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: left]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:3[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.31[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.86[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]19.05.2013[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Rayo Vallecano[/TD] [TD=class: left]Levante[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]3:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.28[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.28[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]20.12.2012[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The stats between them are not very important in my view. But what is important is that the price in these matches was usually around 2.40 - 3.30 - 2.90, with Levante favourites. Remember that during Caparros reign in Levante, his team stats at home were pretty decent: 2013/2014 +7=6-6 2012/2013 +8=4-7 Not bad at all considering most of the losses must have been against top 6 teams. Now we have a different coach, Mendilibar, who hasn´t been really successful with any team and that has a different approach to the game, less defensive. The team hasn´t worked very well in the first matches of the season and only scored 1 goal, and received 10 (leaving Barcelona match out we still have a not great 1-5). On the other hand, Rayo are a team with lots of chances in every match, that look to be a class above Levante, and 8-10 in goals. That´s why I believe there is value at that price, and DNB should be around 1.72 max on them. Obviously I can be wrong, but I imagine a match where Vallecano will be the one dominating, and Levante will try to play counterattack, and with that premises and thinking of the quality of attacks and defence in both teams I consider to be a small away favourite despite pitch advantage. Atl Madrid - Sevilla Under 2.5 @ 1.80 on Betfair First I should say that I don´t think there is huge value on this one, and I don´t think it will drop much further than 1.75. But still some value that again doesn´t come from the stats in past years, etc, but more of the trends in both teams and how I think the coaches will decide on how to play. Both teams are solid as ever and I think both teams struggle to score. If you add to that the fact that Emery will be more than happy with a point here, it looks difficult to believe there will be more than 2 goals.

[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 12th - 15th]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 12th - 15th I haven´t factored in the fact that Simeone is suspended, to be honest didn´t think that would have an influence in the team. It´s difficult to check stats on such an event but never before thought that as something that would affect players. Anyway the second coach German "Mono" Burgos has also an impact in the team and he will be the one leading. It is a wait and see anyway. Granada - Villarreal Back Granada +0.25 2.07 on Pinnacle Sports Some news that are quite important in the match: Giovanni Dos Santos got injured in the midweek and won´t be eligible. Also Uche is a doubt. I think Giovanni is the most important player in the team and always have an impact in the team, despite the coach didn´t count on him 100% last year. Also Caparros teams tend to adapt pretty well to the characteristics of the match and think they will not make silly mistakes, if they need to defend they will, etc.

[Copa Del Rey > September 9th - 11th]

Re: Copa Del Rey > September 9th - 11th There are two bets that look specially good at the moment. I watched the Girona - Tenerife match that had surprising closing odds of -0.25 1.87-2.03. Girona look like a much better team with very good defensive balance and they should be fighting to be top 6 at the end of the season, whereas Tenerife should be fighting to avoid relegation all year. Obviously this is only a first impression but considering a home advantage of around 0.4 it´s still shocking to have such a small handicap. The same match is repeated after some days and despite I have no confirmation of news, seem that all coaches could fit the same starting XI, although you would expect some slight changes to rest some of the players. Girona -0.25 1.91 is availabe on Sbobet, although limits are small so you would expect a drop soon (my idea of closing price if there are not big news in lineups should be around -0.5 1.95). The other match where I think there is big value is Sporting Gijon - Valladolid. Both teams should be fighting for promotion and I rate them as similar for this matchup. The fact that you can back a 1.8 DNB is surprising as well, as I would say it should be around 1.65 max on this one. Havent seen any matches of these two teams but the market has indicated this similarity between teams. Segunda closing prices are not so trustworthy in that sense but should still work as a good indication of a high price like this.

[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 12th - 15th]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > September 12th - 15th Hi everyone. I am a spanish national and UK resident dedicated mainly to the spanish league, and wanted to share some of my views with you in the forum. I will start with the biggest match of next week: Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid. First of all, if we look at stats of last years the price will look completely wrong: [TABLE=class: result-table, width: 579] [TR=class: rtitle first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Super Cup 2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.46[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.30[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]22.08.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]4.24[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]6.95[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]19.08.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Champions League 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]4:1 ET[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.13[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.26[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.72[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]24.05.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.21[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.37[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.21[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]02.03.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Copa del Rey 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.43[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.07[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]11.02.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]3:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.88[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.57[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.92[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]05.02.2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2013/2014[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.76[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.67[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]4.60[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]28.09.2013[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Copa del Rey 2012/2013[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2 ET[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.64[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.87[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.08[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]17.05.2013[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2012/2013[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.46[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.52[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]27.04.2013[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.53[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]6.54[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]01.12.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2011/2012[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:4[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.22[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.81[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.64[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]11.04.2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]4:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.18[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]6.91[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]14.16[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]26.11.2011[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2010/2011[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.34[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.91[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.62[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]19.03.2011[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Copa del Rey 2010/2011[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.99[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.76[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.80[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]20.01.2011[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]3:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.28[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.49[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]9.28[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]13.01.2011[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2010/2011[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.29[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]9.33[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]07.11.2010[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2009/2010[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]3:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.30[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]8.98[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]28.03.2010[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:3[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.52[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.46[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.02[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]07.11.2009[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2008/2009[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.73[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.54[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.69[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]07.03.2009[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.90[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.39[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]18.10.2008[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2007/2008[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.17[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.51[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]20.01.2008[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.80[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.31[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.40[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]25.08.2007[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2006/2007[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.54[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.08[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.67[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]24.02.2007[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.70[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.74[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]01.10.2006[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2005/2006[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.84[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.29[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.98[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]04.03.2006[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:3[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.18[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.18[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.14[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]15.10.2005[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2004/2005[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.46[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.73[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]6.45[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]21.05.2005[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:3[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.21[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]09.01.2005[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2003/2004[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.32[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.21[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]2.01[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]17.04.2004[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:0[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.86[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.89[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]03.12.2003[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 2002/2003[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]0:4[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]5.16[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.57[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.58[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]15.06.2003[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]2:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.51[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.63[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]6.57[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]19.01.2003[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 1999/2000[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.10[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.10[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]18.03.2000[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]1:3[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]1.70[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.20[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]5.50[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]30.10.1999[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rtitle, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TH=class: left first-cell, colspan: 2, align: center]Primera Division 1998/1999[/TH] [TH=align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: last-cell nobr, colspan: 2, align: center] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: first-row, bgcolor: #ECECEC] [TD=class: left first-cell]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]3:1[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]3.10[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]3.00[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.10[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]12.06.1999[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: strong] [TD=class: left first-cell]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: left]Atl. Madrid[/TD] [TD=class: nextmatch-score, align: center]4:2[/TD] [TD=class: odds best-betrate, bgcolor: #DFBBA7, align: center]1.82[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]2.95[/TD] [TD=class: odds, align: center]4.40[/TD] [TD=class: mutual-link, align: center]details[/TD] [TD=class: last-cell nobr date, align: center]17.01.1999[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] If you look at the matches at Bernabeu since Atletico are back in LaLiga you can count something like +9=3-2 for Real Madrid. Also looking at the last closing prices and taking them as reference you would think that 1.70 is a fair price. For the last Supercup match price was around 1.5, in my opinion affected by the uncertainties of Atletico during the preseason. Looking at this match now, we can see that Di María and Alonso left, Real Madrid looked quite out of focus in the last match against Real Sociedad and Atletico on the other hand have looked pretty solid. Also if you watched both Real Madrid -Atletico in the supercup they looked as quite even teams, where Real Madrid has a bigger potential but Atletico seem to be doing a bigger effort. Also Cristiano Ronaldo has been struggling with fitness and James Rodriguez hasn´t found his spot yet. Another factor that can´t be dismissed is that almost every player from Real Madrid squad is on international duty, while in Atletico there are many more players that will be focused on this match already. According to the equilibrium I see, and the uncertainties in Real Madrid the closing price should be between 1.80 and 1.90 (counting Ronaldo in the starting XI).