[Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th]

Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th My tracked and verified record is available here - https://spam.com/ As the world knows, Neymar is out. Also, Thiago Silva, Brazil’s captain and key central defender, is suspended for this match. So, naturally, everyone is backing Germany. The odds on Germany to advance have plummeted. I’ve had a lot of issue with how Brazil have been playing this tournament, and I actually think a lot of that has to do with Neymar. Much like Argentina’s reliance on Messi, Brazil funnel everything through Neymar, default to Neymar, and wait for Neymar to create. I’m not saying that Brazil’s attacking talent is better without Neymar, far from it in fact. He is one of the best young players in the world. What I do think is that Brazil will play better as a team without him and will have more variety in their attack. Sure, I can easily see how you would take this the other way and think that an already stale Brazil attack is now missing their best weapon. I really can’t fault anyone for taking that angle. In my opinion, however, I think Brazil will actually offer more variety and be a better attacking team now. Stepping into Thiago Silva’s shoes will be Bayern Munich defender Dante. He is a decent central defender and at least has familiarity playing against the side he faces today. Of course, they also know his strengths and weaknesses. What I think will happen now, with Scolari’s “let’s just not lose” mindset, is that Brazil may play with three defensive midfielders. This will help protect the center of the park. This is an especially good tactical decision because Germany’s attack focuses on playing through the middle of the field. I reckon Brazil will be able to get by even without Thiago Silva there. If Germany plays with a 4-5-1, then I think they will have a much better chance at advancing. If they stick with their 4-6-0 where they need to get a great incisive pass, then I can see them having real trouble breaking down a packed Brazilian central defense. What would be in the best interest of Germany is if they attacked down the flanks, because that is where Brazil have been the most vulnerable. I really can’t touch the goals market in this game because if Germany play a 4-5-1 they are capable of scoring a goal or two. I would lean to taking the under here, but that is mostly due to the heat in Belo Horizonte and the expected defensive formation of Scolari. I think Brazil still have more than enough attacking power to overcome the Germans. Even though neither team have really impressed that much during the knockout stages, or even the group stage for that matter (save for Germany’s 4-0 drubbing of Portugal), I think that Brazil played their best game of the tournament against Colombia. To me, I think it’s a steal at these odds, so **I’m taking Brazil to Advance @ 1.96**

[Finland > Veikkausliga > 2014]

Re: Finland > Veikkausliga > 2014 This is my first sojourn into the Finland Veikkausliiga this season, but I hope that observing the last few rounds of games will pay off! My record is tracked and verified and available here: > Finland Veikkausliiga RoPS Rovaniemi vs HJK Helsinki Selection: under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 First of all, getting to Rovaniemi is a bit of an ordeal and a journey that teams are not to fond of making. It is in the far north of Finland. RoPS have not been a talented side in recent years, and it seems that the bookies still label them as bottom feeders. However, I think that they are not getting enough due and are in fact a much better squad this season. RoPS look very resilient at the back, and this trait, when juxtaposed with HJK’s complacency, could give RoPS a fighting chance here. RoPS are missing their regular striker Kokko and also their two best midfielders in Virtanen and Pennanen. These absences should force RoPS to concentrate on a more defensive set up against a HJK team that is usually close to the top of the Veikkausliiga table. HJK, to me, have just looked very predictable and complacent. Against a RoPS team that is industrious and is missing some of their best players, I feel that this complacency will continue. As a result, I think it will be a low scoring affair. Finland Veikkausliiga IFK Mariehamn vs Inter Turku Selection: IFK Mariehamn ML @ 2.15 IFK had an unlucky midweek loss to HJK, and put on a good show on the artificial turf of perennial contenders HJK. This is another spot in Finland that is a bit of a difficult travel, and I don’t fancy most visitors to these places. IFK have a decent attacking threat in Forsell and even managed to sign former HJK striker Makela to boost their attack even more. Inter Turku are a good side that has been playing very inconsistent of late. Additionally, they are missing their regular goalkeeper Bahne, and two defenders in Aho and Lehtonen. Inter can put up goals at any time with Ojala, so IFK may have to score two here. However, I like them against a Inter Turku squad that has some important absences. Finland Veikkausliiga Mypa vs Jaro Pietarsaari Selection: MyPa ML @ 2.20 AND Over (2.00,2.50) @ 1.90 MyPa are currently leading the Veikkausliiga table, however, I think that chances of them remaining at the top are quite small. They have had a great start to the season, however, and that is commendable. MyPa concede goals quite regularly, but they are a very good attacking side. Jaro, on the other hand, are just a mediocre Veikkausliiga team. They are an industrious side that lacks quality on either side of the ball. Manager Eremenko has them attacking relentlessly and scoring goals, which obviously leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Both teams have the ability to score goals in this game, but I think the quality and momentum of MyPa will see them through!

[National Hockey League]

NHL May 11th, 2014 My apologies if this is the wrong way to do this, but I see this forum is very dead. My picks for today are NYR ML @ 1.90 and Under in Chi-Min @ 2.15 My reasoning for NYR ML is that Lundqvist will be on his game in an elimination match. I think he is a much better goaltender than Fleury and I think that the Rangers having last change will be instrumental to them shutting down Malkin (who has looked extremely dangerous in the last two games) and keeping Crosby quiet. NYR have been receiving solid defence lately, as long as Staal and Girardi stop running into themselves. I think NYR can score 3 goals here tonight, and I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh get 3 on Lundqvist tonight. The under in Chi-Min I am mostly taking for the odds offered. I don't trust Bryzgalov, so that makes me very nervous. However, I am hoping that Coach Yeo will deploy a defensive strategy tonight as the Wild have been shellacked away from home. Toews and Kane are obviously not 100% and I hope the Wild will have some momentum out of the two home wins and will play an extremely sacrificing style of defence (blocking shots, hitting everyone). Hossa has looked like the horse that he is the last few games and I hope Suter has it in him to keep Hossa off the scoresheet. As long as Bryz doesn't let in a goal in the first 10 minutes I feel good about this bet. He is usually good for a minimum of two iffy goals against a game, so hopefully the Wild step up big. As I said, this is mostly a play on the odds offered and I generally would have taken the Over 5 in this game, however, I think it is a decent chance that this stays under and I must take the odds offered. Lets see a very defensive effort by the Wild tonight and keep limiting the Hawks to under 24 shots per game!

[Brazil Serie A Thread 2014]

Re: Brazil Serie A Thread 2014 Does anyone like a live bet on Vitoria 0.0 @ 2.75? They are getting a lot of shots through on goal and seem to be having a fair share of possession