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pralque

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Posts posted by pralque

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary rockymog, jesus christ, I am not fvcking flaming the guy, do I have to repeat this ad nauseum, I like his style, I am rooting for him, I 'd like to see him to do well, I d even like him to go over 20% yield and disprove me. I was just replying to a comment someone made by someone about 30% yields and that's where my "fair coin" argument fit, and let me say thank you to monkey for a very illustrative link to a coin simulator, which verifies that what I said was anything but "utter garbage", and which yourself and people such as Betfairbetting, smyther etc. seem to have completely disregarded (and btw, betfairbetting do you consider your queries have been anwered?) in your perception of a flame war that's not actually taking place, although at the moment I myself am getting weary as to why we keep getting ten post posters dragging this non issue on and and on.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary it's actually two statements, the first one I can verify, and a lot o people too can by merely browsing around for long term yields in the tipping field, and like I said the input variables are important, my independent tests show that these input variables, given a set staking system, not kelly or martingale etc. will never(close to never lets say) reach such profit yields IN THE LONG RUN, and that is close to a few thousand bets. The second part about the coin, it has been proved time and again in literaly tsousands of VERY elementary statistics textbooks, but you wish to I am sure you can find some online simulation to test this yourself.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary k, let me reply to you tops to, because i missed reading your post first time around. "I am very thankful for the positive comments guys, however, stating that a coin could be tossed to end up with the same results is quite frankly, without sounding like i'm having a go, utter rubbish. I have back tested this system over at least 500 matches, so why are questioning the 'input parameters'? I don't even know what that means... If something works over 500 matches at level stakes, and i have the decency to post it up here and put my @ss on the line, then I feel that is a very unfair and unjust comment." Like i said I despise negativity and I am not aiming at that, but basic probability theory easily and conclusively disproves that on such a limited sample, my point on the fair coin is "utter rubbish", it isn't, it's completely justified. Please resist your urge to take this negatively, I think you fully understand what input parameters are because I asked you about these and you replied, and what's that crap about me "questioning them", I just enquired about them to see what data sets your system is based on, there's a huge difference between questioning and enquiring about, any person with half a brain would like to know what sets of objective data someone uses when they place a bet, which according to their own words is based on objective data, taking corners into accounts say or just goals can make a heck of a difference. It's the first thing one should actually ask about on a system what input data is utilized. Now calm down, this is the internet, don't escape into some fantasy of putting your ass on any line here, you are justing posting your picks here and have been civil so far, don't go down the "I see haters all around" road beause there aren't any, de-dramatize this (for lack of a better term) and try to stay focused on where it's at, winning.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary dan, please do me a favour mate and re-read what I ve said, we all got the drama queen thing in us to some extent but my intention has never been to dramatize any of this, if some of you are accustomed to seeing flamers/haters/etc. in some circumstances it might even be expected that my comments could have been misconstrued, but since I already got one moronic reply to a previous comment, let me just quote myself here, on what I said which is not too far off from what you are saying, before we get to all that "let the picks do the talk" let the haters rave on imature nonsense. "I don't mean to put the man down, because he seems genuine, and is very helpful to anyone who asks here, but you don't have to rewrite the rules of betting, because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile." This should suffice, but let me end it here once an for all by saying that I aknowledged his integrity and helpfullness, so you shouldn't be reminding me of these, and I doubted that ANYONE could reach a 20% yield with this data set, and I emphasised the data set bit, like I said I don't intend to put the man down, but the truth is that a fair coin or an unfair one adjusted to the average betting odds, would have a fair chance to have ended with a similar profile, and last time I am saying this do not take this negatively, there are some sobering truths we gotta abide with.

    Danny Cash 'One Goal Will Do' System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Danny Cash 'One Goal Will Do' System (94% sr) dan, great job mate, enjoy the profits, only 57 bets this season that makes for a pretty strict selection policy, and that's always good, did you by any chance from what I can tell since the system is purely objective you are not taking into account team news, motivation blah blah, but only games played and goals scored, I also suspect you are not taking into account shots on goals, right? in any case hope your strategy continues, any thoughts of backtesting it with past betfair data which is now widely available and the very limited sample size is the only real negative thing of the system?

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    Dude, i don't want to sound harsh but, you DON'T know what input parameters TS use in his system. Second, as far as i know he didn't told anyone the details of his system (which is perfectly understandable, i wouldn't too :dude)
    Mate you shouldn't worry about sounding harsh when you are already sounding foolish since topsavings "did told" me what his input data set is just a few posts earlier.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I don't mean to put the man down, because he seems genuine, and is very helpful to anyone who asks here, but you don't have to rewrite the rules of betting, because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Top, whatever you consider convoluted in my post, by all means ask away and I ll be more than happy to elaborate. I for once I am covered by your reply, and of course I am not asking you to just give away just like this something you have invested so much time and effort into coming up with, no one in their right mind would, or should, I just wanted to see what you were using as your input data, and get some appreciation on the type of system you are using. Bol, hope this works out fine, obviously so far the results have been erring on the positive side, hopefully whatever regression to the mean still proves the rationale of the system profitable.

    Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TopSavings, thanks for sharing your work, and best of luck mate, just a quick question, as I have understood you are only using objective (NOT potentially objectifiable data), that is, for example goals are an objective set of data, while absences are a potentially objectiafiable set of data based on some criteria. Are you ALSO including shots on goals as your input data or not? And, are you using some statistical propre way in these, such as a poisson distribution modelling of the scores, or a purely computational approach? thanks and bol.

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