Dund0n
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Posts posted by Dund0n
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1.40 Aintree - Saint Are win @ 9/1 Bet365
2.15 Aintree - Menorah win @ 8/1 Bet365
3.00 Sandown - Somersby win @ 8/1 Bet365
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7.10 Kempton - Ghost Train win @ 15/2 William Hill
Ghost Train has not won for over a year but has been running fairly consistently since then. The lack of a win has seen his mark fall from 65 to 60 and now he is only 1lb higher than his last winning mark. The ease in the weights means he gets into a 0-60 for the first time since his last win. Conditions should suit as he has won over 7f and even though he has yet to win at Kempton he has run with credit here in the past.
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1.30 Lingfield - Age Of Elegance 0.5pts E/W @ 12/1 Bet365
Looks to be a wide open race so I feel a chance can be taken on a horse with good course form at a slightly bigger price. It seems that this horse can only run well at Lingfield. Her form at the course is 1232 whereas her form away from Lingfield is 674780. She ran a shocker lto at Wolves but should go better returning to her favourite course. She races off a mark of 74 which looks fair considering that she came within a nose of winning off this mark back in July. The concern is the trip as she has run over 1m 4f twice before and finished a good 4th on one occasion but was then down the field in her other attempt. Those were both away from Lingfield so as she is fairly unexposed at the trip she may perhaps go better over it here. I could see this going to a number of horses but at Lingfield I feel she should at least run into a place.
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2.40 Wolverhampton - Frivolous Lady @ 9/1 SkyBet
Backed this one last week and thought she ran too badly to be true. She was coming off a near 200 day lay off and was running on an AW surface for the first time so it's easy to excuse her run. She should be fitter today and is visored for the first time which should bring out some improvement. She's the highest rated in this and looks well treated at these weights. She's obviously talented if looking at the form of her maiden and she'd only have to run close to that to have a chance here.
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1.40 Southwell - Frivolous Lady win @ 100/30 Bet365
Won a maiden at 50s lto. That race has worked out well. She had 3 next time out winners and multiple 80+ rated horses in behind. She looks well in at the weights here and even though she has a break to overcome i feel she's capable of doing so as this doesn't look a particularly strong claimer.
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3.05 Chelmsford - Grey Mirage win @ 8/1 SkyBet
He has been running in similar class 2 AW handicaps for the past few years and won the AW mile championship at Lingfield on Good Friday two runs ago. He had today's favourite, Mindurownbusiness, comfortably behind him. He's re-opposing him again and is 2lbs better off this time so should be confirming the form. He was disappointing lto but was entitled to need the run after a break of 222 days so should be fitter for this. It's a bit of a concern that Grey Mirage looks the second string on jockey bookings with Luke Morris favouring Lacan but today's jockey is taking 3lbs off and has a 27% strike rate around here so the jockey bookings aren't that big of a problem.
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2.30 Chepstow - Big Society win @ 8/1 Bet365
0 from 11 over fences but has been placed 4 times and has run well on multiple occasions. He's done his chasing exclusively in class 3 races but today he runs in a class 4 for the first time. He's pulled up the last twice which has seen his mark fall to 116 - the lowest in his chasing career and 7lb lower than when he finished a close 2nd a few races ago. I think there are excuses for his last two non completions. One came after a break so he was entitled to need it and one was in a 3m 7f race the day after he completed a 3m race so no real surprise that he found that tough. He has had his jumping problems but on his day he is capable of winning on a mark like this. The trainer is in cracking form and has had 3 winners from his last 5 and 6 winners from his last 10. Trip/ground should cause no problems.
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2.10 Cheltenham - Sprinter Sacre win @ 3/1 PaddyPower
He's obviously not the same horse he was a few years ago but on these terms I'm happy to get involved with him at 3/1. He's getting weight from all horses with the exception of Somersby who he beat a couple of times off level weights last year so that form should be confirmed. Sprinter Sacre also had Mr Mole behind him when finishing 2nd lto and again he should be beating him today in receipt of 10lbs. He's gone well fresh before, he's 3 from 4 at Cheltenham over fences and there's been nothing but positives coming out of the yard so it sounds like he's fit and ready to go. Any rain is a concern as it doesn't look like he'll run on testing ground so hopefully the rain stays away and we get a run.
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3.10 Lingfield - Maverick Wave win @ 8/1 SkyBet
Probably has some of the best form in this having won a group 3 three runs ago. Its safe to assume that he was out of his depth last twice in the Arlington Million and then the Champion Stakes at Ascot but he's dropped in class markedly to a listed event today so should find this much easier. He likes it here and is 3 from 4 at Lingfield with two of those wins coming over C&D. It could be very hard to give weight to the fairly unexposed Lets Go who got to within a half length of Tryster lto, but I'm hoping Maverick Wave can show his class in an easier race and win.
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2.50 Cheltenham - Any Currency 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 BetVictor
A bit of a specialist over these fences at Cheltenham having won once and been placed multiple times including 3 times behind Balthazar King. He was second in the cross country at the festival in March behind Rivage D'or and is weighted to reverse that form. He had a run at Aintree over normal fences 19 days ago so will be fit whereas a few of these are running after long breaks so Any Currency should hold an advantage there. Josies Order looks a massive threat, he's almost half the age of Any Currency, and looked good when winning a similar race at Punchestown in May. He's also had a run this season. However he has only run once at Cheltenham and finished 22nd of 23 so because course form tends to be a big advantage at Cheltenham I'm willing to side with the older course specialist Any Currency.
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12.20 Southwell - Zip Wire win @ 16/1 Bet365
Showed decent form on the flat despite not winning over in Ireland a few years ago. From 8 flat races he has been 2nd in 3 (twice at Dundalk on the AW) and finished 3rd in 2 more. At his best he was rated 81. His last flat run was at Pontefract in a class 2 and he finished dead last. That was a very tough race though with the likes of Clayton and Sennockian Star taking part so he was well out of his depth. He has since been hurdling and won a Novice race but has been poor in his last two after a 400+ day break. He returns to the flat on a mark of 68 which is his lowest ever mark. His new mark gets him into a class 5 which is a massive step down in class from his last run so he should be finding this much easier. He's fit from his runs over hurdles so really it should just be a case of trying to get used to running on the flat again after over 500 days off.
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2.00 Bangor - Cloudy Too win @ 9/1 BetFred
Fairly classy chaser a couple of years ago winning a listed chase and a grade 3 in 2013 before finishing 2nd behind Captain Chris at Ascot in a grade 1. His form has tailed off since then as he pulled up in the 2014 Gold Cup behind Lord Windermere and then finished out of the frame in his next 3 chases. For that poor run of form his handicap mark has eased to a nice looking mark of 145. He was rated 157 at his best in 2014 and won his grade 3 and listed chases on higher marks than he is on today. He ran over hurdles a couple of weeks ago and probably needed the run so should be fit and ready for this.
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2.50 Sedgefield - Tomkevi win @ 5/1 BetVictor
This will be his first run in the UK but he has done well over the summer in France. His last 3 runs have been in claiming chases and he's won one and placed in the other two. It's hard to know whether that form is all that good but it does show that he can get over a fence and that the soft ground which he faces today won't be a problem. It's also tough to know if a mark of 118 is too high and this does look a fairly tough starting point. Having said that he is unexposed in the UK, but has experience, and gets a weight allowance as he is only 4 and the fact that he is so young means there should be more to come. Therefore I feel he is worth taking a chance on.
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2.00 Southwell - Lamps win @ 5/2 Bet365
Last seen placing in a decent class 3 handicap at Ffos Las. He's dropped into a claimer today and this looks a much easier task. All of his last 3 wins have come in either a seller or a claimer. He won this last year and this doesn't look a particularly hard renewal. He is the highest rated in the field and looks well treated at these weights. He gets ground that he likes and the trip and track should cause no problems (2 from 2 at Southwell). My only concern is that he is coming back after a break and his reappearances after long breaks have been poor over the last couple of years but in 2012 and 2011 he won after breaks of over 200 days so hopefully it won't be too much of a problem in what looks a fairly weak race.
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2.20 Hexham - Solway Legend win @ 15/8 SkyBet
Short price but seems to have a lot in his favour. He's been progressive over fences this year, starting in April on a mark of 76 he is now up to a mark of 103. He's won 3 chases and placed in 3 more and has a C&D win so track/trip both fine. He ran very well to finish third lto at Carlisle in a 0-120 handicap off a mark of 102, he's 1lb higher today but the jockey is taking 5lb off so a repeat run should be on the cards especially as this is a weaker race (0-105). With 12 runs under his belt he is the most experienced in the field which should be an advantage. He probably wants good ground but has won on soft before so hopefully the good-to-soft won't cause any problems.
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6.50 Chelmsford - Greyfriarschorista win @ 7/1 Bet365
Good on the AW with all 10 wins coming on artificial surfaces. Is a 100+ horse at his best and obviously isn't that good now but did run in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 85 only 4 runs ago. He has been dropped into a claimer so his sights have been lowered big time. He was disappointing lto in a handicap but that was after a break of nearly 500 days so should strip fitter this time and if he can get close to his old form should go close despite not coming off best at theses weights. The support for Father Fred after a nearly 800 day absence is a concern.
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1.35 Warwick - Free Of Charge win @ 6/1 PaddyPower
I thought Free Of Charge jumped soundly lto on what was his chase debut. The form says he fell but to me it looked more as if he just slipped so I'm not concerned about his jumping as long as he has come out of it alright. He was 2nd and in contention before falling and looked to have been in with a chance of hitting the frame which would've been a solid start to his chasing career. However I don't think he would've got close to the winner as that one won easily. He was just starting to get outpaced so the step up in trip to 3m 1f will probably suit. He's running off of the same mark today and with the experience should improve.
I have doubts about the others, especially the current fav Pure Poteen. He made plenty of mistakes lto, despite winning, and will probably struggle to make the same mistakes with the 6lb rise today. Conas Taoi has a solid chance but has been winning much weaker races and probably won't want soft anywhere in the going description. For 'n' Against has been beaten soundly in his two chase starts and has been beaten by Free Of Charge in the past, albeit over hurdles, but is unexposed. Barton Gift might need this and probably wants further, Paddy The Oscar looks to be on a tough mark reappearing after a break, Rockiteer saves his best for hunter chases and while Georgian King won this last year and is only 2lb higher, he is a 12yo so may be vulnerable to one of the younger horses and was also beaten by Pure Poteen lto.
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3.20 Exeter - Delgany Demon win @ 10/1 SkyBet
This looks very competitive with a few unexposed chasers holding good chances, especially the two at the head of the market, Belmount and Whats Left. My selection also falls into that category at a slightly larger price. He is actually the least exposed in the field and has only had one run over fences. I thought he jumped soundly enough throughout, wasn't given too hard of a run, and finished a good third behind Dell' Arca (Rated 145) and Germany Calling (Rated 134, won next time out). On debut it was probably too big of a task to beat that pair so I think finishing third was a decent result especially as he didn't get his optimal conditions. Delgany Demon has run at his best over 3 miles on soft ground. His chase debut was over 2m 4f on good ground so you'd expect a better performance today as ground/trip both in his favour. He should also come on for the experience.
It's hard to know if this mark is too steep or not as he has only run in one handicap and that was over hurdles. He had a mark of 123 and finished a close up 3rd, if he runs close to that standard over fences then a mark of 125 looks very fair. He's gone well enough after a break in the past so the lay off isn't too concerning.
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3.15 Ludlow - Battlecat win @ 5/2 Bet365
Battlecat comes into this race in decent enough form, having hit the frame in his last 3 runs, which is more than can be said for the rest of the field as this looks like a really poor race. On previous form he seems to be a better hurdler than chaser as his highest ever hurdles mark was 124 whereas he is only rated 104 over fences. Having said that, with only 3 runs over fences he is fairly unexposed and you would expect improvement with a few more runs. The trip is a concern as he has never raced over 3 miles but his best chase form to date came when he was stepped up to 2m 4f so hopefully he can take the extra half mile in his stride especially as this looks like a great opportunity with most of his rivals out of sorts. The good ground will suit him perfectly.
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2.35 Carlisle - Vintage Star win @ 11/2 Boylesport
Vintage Star has won 2 races and has been placed a further 4 times here at Carlisle and his record on his seasonal reappearance is 1212. He's won over this far before so he'll definitely stay and he doesn't seem ground dependant. He's been running in tougher races than this for the last couple of years and hit the frame in two class one races last winter so he obviously has ability. He did however pull up in his last two races, one being the Scottish National, so his mark has fallen and he gets into this class 3. He was third in a grade 2 handicap at Haydock off a mark of 137 in January and he finds himself on a 4lb lower mark so if he can run to that standard its not hard to see him going close in this much easier race.
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5.50 Brighton - Pour La Victoire win @ 11/1 BetVictor
Course form is always a plus here and while a handful of these have won here, none have the record of Pour La Victoire. He is 4 from 9 around here and has only been out of the frame once before. He was poor lto but I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back at a course he clearly has a liking for, especially as this race doesn't look strong at all. He is 1lb higher than his last winning mark but I wouldn't say this mark is beyond him. The jockey has won on him before so there is no problem there.
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3.50 Wetherby - Kauto Stone win @ 10/1 Bet365
It's been 536 days since his last race but, as Trotter has rightly pointed out, on past form he looks interesting having run in 4 grade 1s and the Topham in 2014. His form did tail off towards the end of the 2013/14 season, although I don't think his 20l 6th behind Sire De Grugy at his best was too bad, which means he now has a handicap mark of 134 which is well below anything he has had before. Therefore on that mark he gets into this which is his first non-graded race since his days in France. Since the 13/14 season he has switched yards and has had the break so hopefully that might rejuvenate him and help him recapture some of his old ability. He's obviously a risky bet and winning this won't be an easy task conceding weight all round, after such a long break, but if he can run close to his grade one winning best then he will have a good chance in this. He's also won fresh after breaks of 244 and 204 days but never anything like 536.
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4.40 Sedgefield - Sendiym win @ 3/1 Bet365
Looks to have a fair bit in his favour today. He's 4 from 9 at Sedgefield and has only been out of the frame on 2 of those 9 occasions so obviously has a liking for the course. He is 1lb below his last winning mark and runs off the same mark as he had lto which was a good second here. He was beaten by the in form The Backup Plan from the McCain yard and his representative today, Court Of Law, has a similar profile so wouldn't be surprised if that one runs well. However Court Of Law has been beaten by Sendiym over hurdles and has finished well down the field in his 2 Sedgefield runs, admittedly they were a while ago, so perhaps Sendiym holds the advantage.
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4.45 Catterick - Solar Spirit win @ 7/1 Bet365 Has not been at his best for a few races and at 10 years old won't be improving but he is on a career low mark of 71 and won this last year off a mark of 73. He's a course regular and has 5 course wins with 3 coming over todays C&D. He seems to go on any ground so the conditions are fine. This race is easier than his last few and the last time he took part in a class 5 race he finished a close up third.
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in At The Races - Racing Forum
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12.15 Huntingdon - Tiradia win @ 8/1 Bet365
12.30 Kelso - Silsol win @ 2/1 Bet365
2.00 Huntingdon - Al Ferof win @ 11/4 Bet365