tougher than the rest
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Posts posted by tougher than the rest
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Re: Poland v Greece > June 8 Poland - Greece I reccommend: Greece +0,5 Poland team goals 4,5 Do not be distracted by the media buzz over Lewandowski, piszczek and Błaszczykowski (all BVB). We are an average team who plays on EURO 2012 because of hosting it. Surely those players who will start with Greece are individually probably the best XI we have had in years, but as a team they are just unproven. What worries me much about Poland's performances is that we don't have valuable bench players and everyone who comes off the bench is merely to replace the number of players on the pitch to 11. Nothing more. Secondly - we are very poor at set pieces. We cannot defend it very well and cannot score from free-kick or corners either. Thirdly - if this team concedes a goal first, I strongly believe they will not bounce back. There is nothing to say about recent performances because with Latvia (1-0) we played a B-team, we won 1-0 against lazy and uninspired Slovakia and defeated 4-0 amateurs from Andorra but the game looked good only in the first half when all starters were on the field. And after all what can you say about defender's form after a game with Andorra ? Will they be fired up to play for 50.000 fans in a new stadium build for 600 millions Euro (!)- yes. Does it make them heavy favourites against solid Greece who have qualified for EURO three times in a row ? No. Greece +0,5 is just a huge value. I don't think we will be able to score more than once against a strong and physical defense that normally concedes 4,5 bookings gives value having in mind that it will be refereed by a Spaniard who has a splendid record of showing yellows and reds in La Liga. I hope for a great tournament in my country with many good games and suprising results :hope
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Re: International Friendlies > 2-7 September Poland-Germany Germany to win @ 1,50 10/10 Germany -1 @ 1,875 8/10 Germany -2 @ 3,70 4/10 Germany - 2,75 @ 6,00 1/10 all bet365 This is the ultimate test for our national team and more than a football game for every Pole who will watch. The Germans after 72 years are coming back to Danzig and they are even more dangerous than they used to be then :rollin It will be useless to evaluate German Nationalmannschaft. Only for those who may have overslept :lol recently they put 3 goals vs Brasil and 6 vs Austria. And Poland, by all means is anywhere closer to Germany than Austria now - in distance and in class. The result of the game is a closed case for me - Germany will win unless a miracle or a couple of miracless will happen on our side. Three years ago when both team met we lost only 0-2 only thanks to some unbelievable goalkeeping from our Holy Goalie Artur Boruc (out of team now) and I honestly believe that Germans are even stronger and even more dangerous upfront. Polish team is still a team in trasition to be build for the next year European Championship. The tactics from coach Smuda is quite simple - look for guys who play in decent European clubs and give them a Polish citizenship. So this time, for the first time we will see Damien Perquis (Sochaux) in our defence. Probablya decent player but it is not a good sign to play in line with completely new partners against stars of modern football like Klose, Oezil, Podolski, Mueller, Goetze etc. And there is also an interesting part - Klose and Podolski are in fact Polish born emigrants, both will probably make the starting eleven and a good performance for them in Poland counts double. As for the Polish team - just yesterday we drew with Mexico 1-1, earlier won 1-0 vs Georgia, lost 0-1 vs France and won 2-1 vs Argentina. Might look impressive but Argentina came to Poland with its D-team, we didn't stand a real chance to even draw against France, fought hard vs minor Georgia and played also a second-best Mexican outfit. If Germans will play at least 60 min. of motivated football against us it it should be enough to win comfortably. I'm adding some handicap bets in case we will repeat a performance from last year's test vs opponent similar in strengh to Germany i.e. Spain when we lost 0-6 :\ If Germany just wins by one goal margin (after all its a friendly game in Danzig so they should have some mercy :p) I will receive my stakes back. :hope
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September Holland - San Marino Holland - 5,75 @ 1,80 7/10 (bet365) Not too much philosophy behind this bet. SM last three aways (Sweden, Hungary, Finland) read 0-8, 0-6, 0-8. :hope
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 2-3 September Wales - Montenegro Seems to be a perfect spot to hit on goals market. Montenero so far with stellar defence in the competition kept clean sheet in 4 out of 5. Wales on the other hand scored one goal in four games. Therefore I will play Montenegro clean sheet @ 2,37 4/10 Already dropping, yesterday was at 2,50 (bet365) under 2 @ 1,925 5/10 This line says all about what bookies are expecting from this game, most likely 1-0,0-0,0-1. :hope
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Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2011/12
3-1 :cow A sign of life from ŁKS that they at least scored their first goal in Ekstraklasa this year. Apart from that - definitely a team to bet against. Legia showed nothing special and won with ease.ŁKS-Legia 2 @ 1' date=80 (bet365) 7/10 -
Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2011/12 ŁKS-Legia 2 @ 1,80 (bet365) 7/10 This game has potential to be a huge minefield but odds of 1,80 offer to much value not to risk a bet. Legia finally got a grip with good results and the ability to score goals. They are comming off a big win over Spartak Moscow in European League and they may have been distracted a bit to face a lowly ŁKS. The fact speak overwhelmingly for Legia. ŁKS is 0-1-3 and 0-11 (!) in goals after four rounds. On the other hand Legia managed to eliminate Gaziantep and Spartak from EL and beat Gornik and Cracovia by 3-1 each. Last week they lost at home 1-2 to Slask but that doesn't change much in my evaluation since Slask should fight for places 1-3 and when they met ŁKS earlier this month they won 4-0. Last week ŁKS managed to earn a draw vs Lechia Gdansk but from the match report I have read that they barely had shots on goal and had to defend all 90 minutes long. ŁKS has some players who used to play for Legia what could give them an extra motivation (Mieciel, Szalachowski). There will be hardly a home field advantage for ŁKS since they are playing in Belchatow on a neutral venue. To sum up I reckon bookies are aware of the fact that Legia may disrespect ŁKS and feel too complacent after beating Spartak but since they have three weeks before group stage of EL will start they should collect points in the league before they will be forced to play every three, four days. Normally a good bet would be to play Legia to keep clean sheet @ 2,25 but if I play it I would include it in fun combos. This round of Ekstraklasa has started with quite unexpected results for favourites (Lech and Zaglebie) and this could be a hard round for punters.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August
:cowApoel-Wisla Apoel -0,5 @1,85 (bet365) 3/10 -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August
:cowApoel-Wisła over 2 @ 1' date=75 (bet365) 7/10 -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August
kulik TS - Finally the PL forum has acquired a real veteran and insider in Polish football :notworthy I assume that Cupiał is your friend and you have drunk a lot of vodka with Małecki ? Haven't you ? :rollin This info was only repeated by onet.pl after official website Wisla put it yesterday evening so my comment to your valuable input is :puke That was off-topic. Odds on Apoel are dropping 1,85->1,66 now in bet365:lol:lol:lol lol if you take the information from here, it means that you are just starting in this industry...:lol -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August Apoel-Wisla Apoel -0,5 @1,85 (bet365) 3/10 According to information portal onet.pl Melikson is doubtful with thigh injury. This may be just a disinformation from Wisla's camp of course ;) but even if he would play with a minor contusion it could significantly influence Wisla's performance. Regardless of this I simply believe that Apoel has an advantage in skills, home pitch and possibly difficult weather conditions (heat). On top of that as I have previously written Wsla has a big tradition :wall of failing in decisive games although in this case a 1-2, 2-3 etc defeat will promote them to CL group stage.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 22nd / 23rd August Apoel-Wisła over 2 @ 1,75 (bet365) 7/10 After a tough battle Wisła managed to pull out a narrow 1-0 in first leg but really didn't impress. Apoel never looked like an inferior team and the second game can turn the tide. I think that in order to advance Wisła must score in Cyprus and obviously it could be easier for them due to much offensive Apoel's strategy. There are also two things that put me off backing Wisła. Some years ago they won the first leg in CL quali vs Panathinaikos by 3-1 but then lost 1-4 in overtime. Polish players tend to be complacent with their effort after a win and gaining an advantage and even if nobody from Wisła admits it in public they could be distracted a bit because of this thought in back of their heads. The second thing I dislike very much is that coach Maaskant fielded a B-team vs Korona in the Polish league (0-0). I simply don't believe in a theory that players should be "rested" before an important match because they lose the rythm of the game and tend to focus too much on one game. Not to say that a day off for a bunch of players in Poland means a beer or two in a shoping mall or a night club ... :lol So I won't risk a straight bet on any of those two but recommend over 2 which seems to be a very safe option. I believe we will see something like 2-1, 1-2 or at least 1-1 in case of a draw. :hope
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 4 August
0-0 :cowLegia - Gaziantep under 2,25 @ 1,875 (bet365) small stake -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 4 August Legia - Gaziantep under 2,25 @ 1,875 (bet365) small stake This is a very tough nut to crack and somebody plans to put any money on this game I recommend to keep it low because it's pretty unpredictable. Gaziantep dominated through 90 min of first leg and lost 0-1 while Legia created two scoring chances I believe and had some fine efforts from goalie Skaba. Today in an interview Legia's coach said that if Gaziantep had played in Polish league they would have won the championship with ease :loon I'm curious if those are just nice words to say or it is his real estimation of how much superior visitors are in terms of skills :lol I expect a tough battle with slow pace and a lot of foul play. Legia hasn't been a scoring machine lately and Gaziantep probably will not be so creative upfront as they were on their home turf. What I like to justify my bet is that Legia's "newcomers" Żewłakow (d) and Daniel Luboja (fw) are in fact very experienced internationally players and probably know how to organize the team to stay calm and slow the game when needed. I fancy it to stay within two goals range so under 2,25 seems to be the best way to bet this game. Nevertheless to pump some adrenaline I will also make a very small bet on Gaziantep to win 2-0 @ 15 ;) I am waiting for an another epic fail from a Polish team and from the trio Wisła, Śląsk, Legia I trust the last one to be the usual suspect :rollin
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August
Money back on Malmoe (haven't seen the game but 3 red cards :eek must have been interesting one :lol) and a :cow on Wisla. Just to give you my comment for next stage - I'm happy that Wisla advanced but it is brutal how much they depend on Melikson now. 90% of any threat upfront comes from him, especially in passing the ball. Litex hasn't been a serious hurdle today but if Wisla's next opponent will find a way to shut down Melikson, Wisla will be toothless.Wisla-Litex Wisla -0,5 @ 1,80 (bet365) Malmoe - Rangers Malmoe dnb @ 2,20 (Bet365) -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August
it only took them 50 min. of play to bring it over :cowAgree :hope. Odense should be able to score but seem to be leaking at the other end and Panathinaikos is traditionally strong at home. Odds over 2,20 definitely carry some value. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August
Agree :hope. Odense should be able to score but seem to be leaking at the other end and Panathinaikos is traditionally strong at home. Odds over 2,20 definitely carry some value.Panathinaikos - Odense over 2.5 @ 2.21 pinnacle First leg ended 1-1 with Odense equalising in injury time to keep them all square for this. It was an open game with chances for both sides, and doubt the second leg will be any different. However Panathinaikos has the advantage of the away goal so the onus is on Odense to make the play, and expect them to go from it at the start to get that away goal they need. Both sides are capable of scoring here, especially Odense who have won 2-0 and drawn their other two games 2-2, so they have been scoring in the Danish league, while they do concede as well. Like this game to have some goals in it -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August Wisla-Litex Wisla -0,5 @ 1,80 (bet365) Now the abovementined Wisla on the agenda. I will play them for three reasons. 1st - they have a 2-1 advantage from the first leg which allow them to sit back and wait what Litex will do and strike from counter atack - very important for Polish teams :lol 2nd - they know what only counts for the owner, for fans and for coach Maaskant - success in Europe. Last years whole Poland laughed at their expence after they were beaten by some "giants" of footbal from Karabach Agdam or Skonto Riga. Now it all points out that the tide will change because ... 3rd - ... they have aquired some really talented new players like Melikson or Ileev. Finally they have stopped to overpay shitty veterans like Zurawski and invested in a good coach and good scout. And it pays off. Litex is nothing special and certainly within Wisla's reach.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 2-3 August Malmoe - Rangers Malmoe dnb @ 2,20 (bet365) Nothing is right about this pricing. Malmoe may have a difficult time in the Swedish league but cup games follow totaly different logic. And to make Rangers 2,30 fav to win AWAY in Sweden when they have to chase 0-1 from the first leg is just riddiculous. I would trust Barcelona to do that but Rangers aren't a team that could play a 30-in-a-row passing game on opponent's half :lol One more thing - more or less the same pattern we have in Wisla-Litex game. Wisla won away 2-1, scoring two times in two attempts for the whole game :rollin. Now at home they are 1,75 while Malmoe is 3,10 :eek So dnb at 2,20 for Malmoe has a tremendous value imo.
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Re: Russian Football 2011
I believe Anzhi will be surpise team this season. They have Roberto Carlos in their squad and even though he is old' date=' I think he did not forget how to score free kicks.[/quote'] :loon I hope Roberto survives the game without heart attack :lol One could expect that the main tactic of Anzhi will be to ge a freekick from 20m distance :tongue2 Or will the visitors be too distracted by lurking at the famous Roberto all the game ? :rollinAnyway the history shows that such transfers are maybe good for the tickets sale volume but very rarely for the quality of football. Of course I'm not saying Anzhi won't win the game - it's only football and 1x2 is possible - but maybe it is better to skip some roundsto see if it is a real deal or just a marketing trick for the fans. -
Re: UEFA Europa League > 10 March Just some opinions For the Europa League I'm leaning towards Ajax -1@2,25 , Benfica -1@2,05 and Bayer @2,00 straight win (bet365) All three in good form, seem to be somewhat superior to their rivals, plus home field advantage. Braga@Liverpool should be a draw @3,00. I think that Liverpool after a splendid result vs MU won't be able to repeat this effort and will settle for a draw with the view to make things clear at Anfield. Probably under also. I'd skip Dynamo Kiev and CSKA becasue of early stage of season for them plus I'm not sure about the weather. Twente@Zenit can go either way. :hope as usual
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 8 March
what a dayI'd go with Barcelona -1,75@1,975 (bet365):cow. They must have a two goal cushion just to be sure a sudden goal from Arsenal doesn't leave them on ice. Consequently I'd add over 3,25@1,95 :cow:cow(bet365). I can imagine a 3-1 :nanato be the most likely outcome. Next is Shahktar -0,5@1,95 :cow:cowand over 2,75@2,05:cow. Roma has nothing to lose so an open, highscoring game is on the cards, especially with hosts' plenty options upfront. I won't be suprised to see a 3-2 repeated. :hope -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 8 March I believe sport is about attitude. Liverpool recently drawed with red light Wigan, lost to 3rd from the bottom WHU, just to trash MU in a game they cared. And that is attitude in sport :lol I believe the same can be said about Barcelona. Maybe they were complacent with one goal lead and 15 minutes to play at Arsenal, maybe they thought is all done because they could have been 3-0 or 4-1 upfront at that time. Doesn't matter but this time they will be playing for their asses being saved due to an unexpected and too early CL exit :lol and it will be seriuos. I'd go with Barcelona -1,75@1,975 (bet365). They must have a two goal cushion just to be sure a sudden goal from Arsenal doesn't leave them on ice. Consequently I'd add over 3,25@1,95 (bet365). I can imagine a 3-1 to be the most likely outcome. Next is Shahktar -0,5@1,95 and over 2,75@2,05. Roma has nothing to lose so an open, highscoring game is on the cards, especially with hosts' plenty options upfront. I won't be suprised to see a 3-2 repeated. :hope
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December
I fully agree and would take Shakhtar -0,75 @ 1,90 (Bet365) with 8/10 stake. Braga has slipped enormously since last year and I don't see a chance or them against the Ukrainian side. And speaking about host's motivation remember that 3 pts in CL are followed by real money from UEFA so I don't believe they could give away game to Braga just like that ;)Why would Shakhtar want to lose infront of their home fans whom they will not see until March? They have proven to be an extremely capable side at home so to just say oh they don't need to win is ridiculous. It's one thing if they have an important match in 3 days in which will determine a title race it's another when the last match of the year is at home and they have a chance to win this group ahead of ARSENAL. That speaks volumes in itself. -
Re: Euro 2012 > 8th - 9th October
3-0 :cowAs I've explained in the other thread the first game that stands out for me is USA over Poland but I feel the same about Germany over Turkey. The odds for Germany's win have gone up since Monday but frankly speaking I can't see a single objective reason for this "irregularity" apart from the fact that a lot of punters (?) are "chasing" Germany's failure to take 3 pts. I just checked kicker.de website for news and Germany will be missing Schweinsteiger but also Turkey are in some kind of personal trouble because playmaker and goalscorer (vs. Belgium and Kazakhstan)Alda Turan will also be absent. The statistics on previous meetings is poor as in the last 5 years they played each other only once in 2008 (Germany won 3-2) but anyway I would't put too much emphasis on that because since WC 2010 we have a "new" Germany with an abundance of young stars like Ozil, Mueller, Khedira, Kroos accompanied by fantastic and experienced goalgetters like Podolski or Klose and solid defence with Mertesacker and Lahm. Sure - Turkey is a solid, quality team but I'd say they are only a bit above Belgium. So if I could get 1,55 for a Germany's straight win in away game in Belgium it wonders me what's the story behind having a similar price at home vs. comparable team ? To sume up I'm happy with Germany -1 @ 2,10 (Bet365) which I think is a great price considering I get my money back if hosts fail to beat Turkey in a more confident way :hope
Poland v Russia June 12th
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Yesterday I only missed the prediction on yellow cards (by a hook) because there were two reds instead :D The rest went just as I supposed - a huuuuge mistake by books on Greece +0,5 (who were unfortunate not to win - a missed penalty, a canceled goal from a narrow offside, a uncalled penalty after hand play from our defender and a dubious red card for Papado... whatsoever) and Poland to score under 1.5. Yes, Poland had two more superb chances by Lewandowski and Perquis but that was all. The one think I wrote you that I am proud of its accuracy - Poland doesn't have bench players and this sad prick Smuda gave a confirmation to this analysis by not using a substitute for the whole game :@ (golakeeper substitution doesn't count as it was forced by red card). But to the point Poland - Russia 2 @ 2,30 8/10 and Russia dnb @ 1,66 for 10/10 I can't understand why the odds at least at bet365 haven't changed since yesterday. Bookies still maybe think that Poland will recover as a host but I tell you - they won't. There are numerous arguments for this bets. Russia will be keen to complete the qualification vs Poland and to save legs in the last (probably meaningless game vs Greece). If they win they are also almost sure of finishing first. The game will be played on 12th June - national holiday "independence day" in Russia - some extra motivation should be in. What are their advantages over Poland - well IMHO they are superior in every formation, maybe apart of goalkeeping. Tyton vs Malafieev is quite an evenly matched pair. The decisive factor is of course offense. Arshavin, Kerzakhov, Dzagoev, Pawliuczenko vs Blaszczykowski and Lewandowski is a mismatch. Kerzakhov had a bad day yesterday as he could not convert at least one of numerous chances and was substituted for Pawliuczenko but he is a proven player and he cannot have a bad day every day. Arshavin is at his best - world class passing game. On the Polish side we have Lewandowski - who is also IMO already a world class striker - but there is one important thing about him. He is not a Ronaldo-type striker who can intercept the ball, run for 20 meters, do a trick and score from outside of penalty box. He must receive a good pass from the wing into the penalty area and then he can do something out of it. Vs Greece, who have cut off in the second half all passes to Lewandowski, he was then useless. I also think that the lack-of-substitutions did have a tremendous effect on the players mentality. Would you as a bench player be motivated and self-confident if you know that your coach doesn't rely on you unless a starter is sent off or broke a leg ? Would a first-team player feel good to know that regardless of circumstances there will be no support and no replacement from the bench ? I'm sure they feel flat after that game and have seen the manner Russians demolishedthe Czech Republic.