plez
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Posts posted by plez
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Re: Spread betting Thanks - I was hoping someone might say something like that. Didn't like the idea of keeping track of 20 games in-running!
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Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! I don't suppose you want to disclose what input variables your network uses?! Are they just simple goal, result and form data?
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Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Veresov - sounds very interesting! For what it's worth, my systems usually involve neural networks somewhere along the line.... What sort of yield does your backtesting predict?
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Apologies for not keeping my system going over the Xmas period - I didn't have much access to a computer, and when I did I wanted to get my bets on! Anyway, I was wondering if anyone has done a spread betting system on here before? Instead of carrying on with the system as it was, I'm considering applying it to the match supremacy market (and maybe comparing it to fixed odds betting as I go for interest?). Paul's thread in Britain > Announcements got me interested, although I have a few queries before I take the plunge (it will probably be paper trail at first anyway) SportingIndex have a spread of 0.3 for each game - what does this equate to in terms of over-round? And does anyone use SpreadFair? (I know you recommended it Paul!). The spreads on this seem much much narrower and very attractive. If a prediction model gives say a 10% yield using fixed odds, and the edge is a genuine one, would the yield using spread betting be higher? This might sound strange, but to me spread betting could be more like "investing", i.e. you don't lose all your stake if a bet "loses". If a model genuinely predicts performance then surely using match supremacy would give better profits? Warnings about the risk are everywhere - match supremacy seems less volatile than other markets. Is it? OK, games can end 10-0, but probably not as often as games can have lots of bookings, or lots of corners for example. Do most people that spread follow their bets in-running, and either lock in profit or cut their losses? Or do you just place your bet and await the outcome? I would be grateful for any advice, or to hear of good/bad experiences spread betting or about SpreadFair or SportingIndex. Cheers guys :)
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Re: "How To Earn A Living From Football Betting"... I came across this by accident a while ago. I did an Ebay search on football betting and turned up a number of such sh1te items. Interestingly there was another "system" for sale, under a different seller name and location, which made different claims, but the Q+A bit at the bottom was word for word exactly the same as the one in this thread. Total rip-off.
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week 5 Birmingham v WBA [2.1pts @ 1.83 UKBetting] Chelsea v Norwich [0.9pts @ 1.22 SuperOdds] Man Utd v Palace [1.9pts @ 1.25 UKBetting] Boro v Villa [1.9pts @ 2.01 Betdaq] Plymouth v Derby [1.2pts @ 2.3 SuperOdds] Reading v QPR [2.2pts @ 4.9 Betfair] Wolves v Crewe [2.4pts @ 1.9 Hills] Brentford v Col U [1.0pts @ 1.82 Betfair] Cheltenham v Kidderminster [1.6pts @ 1.73 StanJames] Swansea v Notts C [1.6pts @ 1.73 StanJames] Liverpool v Newcastle [2.5pts @ 1.91 PaddyPower] Portsmouth v Arsenal [0.7pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Doncaster v Sheff Weds [0.9pts @ 2.9 Betfair] Good luck everyone, especially me :D
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Liverpool, you truly are a pile of sh1te :spank Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 974.4 Total stakes: 134.3 No. bets: 64 Win/Lose: 27/37 Str. rate: 43% Ave odds: 2.56 Yield: -19.1% P/L: -25.6 pts
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Midweek 4 Liverpool v Pompey [5.5 pts @ 1.5 BetDirect]
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Palace v Blackburn 0-0 :( Everton v Liverpool 1-0 :( Newcastle v Pompey 1-1 :( Norwich v Bolton 3-2 :( Southampton v Boro 2-2 :( WBA v Charlton 0-1 :( Crewe v Plymouth 3-0 :( Rotherham v Sheff Utd 2-2 :( Wigan v Gillingham 2-0 :D Darlinton v L Oreint 3-0 :( Kiddie v Rochdale 2-1 :( Northampton v Boston 2-1 :D Rangers v Dundee 3-0 :D Villa v Birmingham 1-2 :D Fulham v Man Utd 1-1 :( Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 979.9 Total stakes: 128.8 No. bets: 63 Win/Lose: 27/36 Str. rate: 43% Ave odds: 2.58 Yield: -15.6% P/L: -20.1 pts This midweek: staked 28.1 returned 13.4 yield -52.3% Not good.
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Week 4 Palace v Blackburn [1.8 pts @ 3.0 PaddyPower] Everton v Liverpool [1.8 pts @ 2.75 BlueSquare] Newcastle v Pompey [2.9 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Norwich v Bolton [2.2 pts @ 2.6 PaddyPower] Southampton v Boro [1.0 pts @ 2.52 Betfair] WBA v Charlton [1.7 pts @ 2.6 VictorChandler] Crewe v Plymouth [5.6 pts @ 3.2 SuperOdds] Rotherham v Sheff Utd [1.5 pts @ 2.05 SuperOdds] Wigan v Gillingham [2.2 pts @ 1.4 SuperOdds] Darlinton v L Oreint [1.5 pts @ 3.0 StanJames] Kiddie v Rochdale [1.1 pts @ 2.38 StanJames] Northampton v Boston [1.3 pts @ 1.91 BlueSquare] Rangers v Dundee [0.9 pts @ 1.17 SkyBet] Villa v Birmingham [1.5 pts @ 4.5 PaddyPower] Fulham v Man Utd [1.1 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Good luck everyone
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Colchester v Barnsley :D Darlo v Mansfield :( Macclesfield v Lincoln :( Yeovil v Kidderminster :D Sheff Weds v Hull :( Oxford v Swansea :D Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 994.6 Total stakes: 100.7 No. bets: 48 Win/Lose: 23/25 Str. rate: 48% Ave odds: 2.64 Yield: -5.3% P/L: -5.4 pts This midweek: staked 10.3 returned 11.8 yield 14.6%
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Tulenos - the staking strategy looks a bit strange I must admit. As for most models that try to find an edge, this one predicts the outcome for each game, and looking at past data, any games where (odds * predicted probability) > 1.0 are considered "value". For a perfect model and an infinite dataset you would expect a proportional linear relationship between yield and predicted edge (i.e. if you just chose games with a predicted edge of 1.10, the overall yield would be 1.10, an edge of 1.2 = yield of 1.2 etc.). No model is like this in reality, so it's always interesting to plot yield against predicted edge. For this model it was fairly linear up to a point, and then increased rapidly after that, i.e. where the value of a bet was particularly high the yield was even higher (but fewer bets). I tried level stakes and a version of the Kelly formula (where the stake was a combination of edge and match odds) and they were OK in terms of overall yield, but the best seemed to be using the yield value from the equation relating yield to edge as just described (scaled to my starting bank). This means that the higher the perceived edge, the higher the stake irrespective of match odds. It's quite risky, and the end of the yield curve that gives the larger stakes is based on a smaller number of past games. What is strange is why the model though that the MK Dons were such value against Tranmere! There may be a bug in there somewhere....
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Midweek Colchester v Barnsley [1.3 pts @ 3.75 Bet365] Darlo v Mansfield [3.2 pts @ 4.33 Tote] Macclesfield v Lincoln [0.9 pts @ 2.75 Bet365] Yeovil v Kidderminster [2.3 pts @ 1.4 Hills] Sheff Weds v Hull [1.3 pts @ 2.25 PaddyPower] Oxford v Swansea [1.3 pts @ 2.88 StanJames]
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Villa v Liverpool 1-1 :( Everton v Bolton 3-2 :( Cardiff v Gillingham 3-1 :D Crewe v Ipswich 2-2 :( Wolves v Reading 4-1 :D Palace v Charlton 0-1 :( Wigan v Preston 5-0 :D Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 993.1 Total stakes: 90.4 No. bets: 43 Win/Lose: 20/23 Str. rate: 47% Ave odds: 2.61 Yield: -7.6% P/L: -6.9 pts This week: staked 19.4 returned 21.1 yield 8.8%
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Week 3 Villa v Liverpool [1.7 pts @ 3.04 Betfair] Everton v Bolton [2.7 pts @ 4 BetDirect] Cardiff v Gillingham [7.6 pts @ 2 BetDirect] Crewe v Ipswich [2.5 pts @ 2.26 Betdaq] Wolves v Reading [1.4 pts @ 2.4 BlueSquare] Palace v Charlton [2.0 pts @ 2.54 Betfair] Wigan v Preston [1.5 pts @ 1.72 Tote] Good luck everyone this w/e.
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Millwall lost :spank Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 991.4 Total stakes: 72.6 No. bets: 36 Win/Lose: 17/19 Str. rate: 47% Ave odds: 2.62 Yield: -12.2% P/L: -8.6 pts
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Midweek game: Crewe v Millwall [1.6 pts @ 2.71 Betdaq]
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Birmingham v Norwich 1-1 :( Bolton v Pompey 0-1 :( Charlton v Chelsea 0-4 :D Man City v Villa 2-0 :D WBA v Man Utd 0-3 :D Gillingham v Forest 2-1 :( Ipswich v Brighton 1-0 :D Reading v Wigan 1-1 :( Sheff Utd v Wolves 3-3 :( Stoke v Sunderland 0-1 :D Torquay v Colchester 1-3 :( Tranmere v MK Dons 2-0 :( Newcastle v Everton 1-1 :( Rotherham v Leeds 1-0 :( Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 993.0 Total stakes: 71.0 No. bets: 35 Win/Lose: 17/18 Str. rate: 49% Ave odds: 2.62 Yield: -9.9% P/L: -7.0 pts This week: staked 35.7 returned 10.2 yield -71.4% :loon Hmm ,lots of :( , not many :D. I blame Harry Redknapp, personally.
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Re: The bookies wrong! Cheers heronvoy - I think we've hijacked WTFEs thread though! Hard to say how Pompey will react, could go either way I guess.
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Re: The bookies wrong! WFTE - I've thought about doing something like this, as some teams always "end up in profit" at the end of the season (if backed with level stakes for the whole season), i.e., as you point out, the teams where the bookies got it wrong. The problem I had was that most of the profit had already been made by the time I realised that a team was doing better than expected, by which time the bookies had started waking up to it. Two questions - how do you decide when to start backing a team, and then when do you stop backing them? I always thought there would be an element of form to the solution, maybe a six game profit formguide or something like that? Anyway, will be watching with interest. Good luck :D
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Punter, it's not me that fancies the Dons! The model thinks they are value at 9.0, however bizarre that seems (at the moment). From the 4 years of backtest data it picked 26 games with max odds between 7.0 and 13.0, and it got 6 right! As I said before, for now I will do as it says without question. When it goes pear-shaped then I will weed out these bizarre predictions. The main problem is the staking strategy I think. I wouldn't mind putting a small amount on the game, but the best strategy I found to fit the backtest data involves putting more on games with larger perceived value, irrespective of odds (compared to the Kelly formula for example, which is a combination of value and odds). Unfortunately it means big money on big outsiders, and big balls :rollin
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Week 2 Birmingham v Norwich [2.7 pts @ 1.9 SuperOdds] Bolton v Pompey [9.0 pts @ 1.65 SuperOdds] Charlton v Chelsea [1.4 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Man City v Villa [1.4 pts @ 2.43 Betfair] WBA v Man Utd [0.6 pts @ 1.61 Betdaq] Gillingham v Forest [2.3 pts @ 2.9 Gamebookers] Ipswich v Brighton [0.8 pts @ 1.5 PaddyPower] Reading v Wigan [3.1 pts @ 2.88 StanJames] Sheff Utd v Wolves [2.6 pts @ 2.05 Betfair] Stoke v Sunderland [0.8 pts @ 2.62 Hills] Torquay v Colchester [1.4 pts @ 2.3 BetDirect] Tranmere v MK Dons [6.5 pts @ 9.0 Skybet] Newcastle v Everton [1.9 pts @ 1.95 Betdaq] Rotherham v Leeds [1.2 pts @ 2.3 PaddyPower] Total staked 35.7 pts Bit nervous this week, there's a lot riding on Bolton and MK Dons :unsure Good luck to all.
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For a while now every time I open one of the sticky threads in the Britain forum I get a load of Runtime error at line 669 messages. I have to click the mouse quickly about 20 times on "no i don't want to debug", and then it opens Odds-comparison because the banner lies underneath ... ah I see now, a cunning plan by Paul to get us to go to his website :tongue2 !
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Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Cheers guys. Bring on next weekend....
The Pope
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: The Pope I thought the holy spirit was meant to tell the cardinals who was to be the next Poop? Surely any believers out there have access to this same information? Can't find anything in Paddy Power's small print about believers being excluded from this market though.