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Werdum, Gastelum and Bermudez to in at 41/20 with Unibet. Werdum: Think this is a very one sided fight and Mark Hunt only has a punchers chance of winning this. I expect Werdum to be too quick for Hunt and shouldn't have problem avoiding his punches. I expect him to get the takedown and get a relatively quick/easy submission victory or TKO win. Gastelum: This could be a very close fight and would be my least confident of the three fighters, however I'm a big fan of Gastelum and he is already 4-0 in the UFC. Ellenberger hasn't beat anyone great and currently 2-3 in his last 5 fights. He really does need a win but I expect Gastelum to have a strength advantage and he should be able to take this fight wherever he wants for a decision victory. Bermudez: Bermudez is looking better with every fight, and he managed to put away a very tough and durable opponent in Clay Guida in his last fight. I expect his overall standup game and wrestling will be enough to stop Lamas from stealing any rounds and he should get another win in the UFC
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Two UFC's on this weekend so thought I'd put them in one thread seeing as my accumulator spreads across the two events. Accumulator: Louis Smolka win, Dylan Andrews win, Soa Palelei by KO/TKO and Ian McCall win. @ 23/5 (with Unibet) Potential Upsets (Both odds with Unibet): Al Iaqunita win @ 7/5 Ovince Saint Preux @ 29/20 (odds rising) Louis Smolka - Although he is fighting on short notice he is easily a top 15 fighter in this division and way out of Vaculik's league. Smolka's only loss came as a split decision to Chris Cariaso who is no slouch in the division and his last fight was for the title. I expect Smolka to find the finish here, if not a comfortable UD victory. Dylan Andrews - I'm a big fan of Andrews and although Sam Alvey is a decent fighter and has bags full of potential as he holds great power and a great chin, he looked very inexperienced in his loss to Tom Watson. I feel he could have easily taken that fight and even pursued the finish, but he seems tentative at times and quite a slow starter which in turn will cost him rounds. Providing Andrews can avoid Alvey's big power I believe he's a much smarter fighter and this is a decent matchup for him, he shouldn't have too many problems grinding out this fight and taking at least 2 of the 3 rounds for a decision victory. Soa Palelei - I picked this one by KO/TKO as the odds are insane. Palelei's last 11 wins have come by KO/TKO, with 9 of them happening in the first round. Everything is against Harris in this fight, he's taking this on short notice, he's fighting on Palelei's home turf, he was TKO'd in his last UFC fight within 30 seconds to Nikita Krylov who was barely heavy enough to be considered a heavyweight and now fights in the Light Heavyweight division. Palelei hits with a lot more force and I can't see Walt Harris lasting long in this fight. With all these into account, odds of 19/20 for Palelei to win by KO/TKO are too good to be turned down, in fact I'd probably even take them at 1/2, a nice boost to the odds of this accumulator. Ian McCall - John Lineker is a hard hitter in this division and all but one of his UFC victories have come by KO/TKO. However, none of these wins are against anyone too spectacular and Ian McCall is a huge step up in class. Lineker looks like he is improving on his weight cutting and overall stamina in fights now, however Ian McCall's stamina is on another level, probably the best in the division other than the champ Demetrious Johnson (who McCall drew to in their first fight). McCall does a great job at getting in and out without being tagged by anything too ferocious and I think this matchup is great for him. Lineker throws everything like he's trying to finish his opponent, and it's usually very predictable. I think he'll have problems tagging McCall and keeping up with the pressure and pace McCall sets. I expect a UD victory for McCall. Wouldn't be too surprised if he manages to finish a tired Lineker late on by TKO or submission though. The two upsets: Al Iaquinta - This should be a great, close fight. I've always been impressed with Iaquinta and he seems to be improving his standup game every fight. I expect this to be a VERY close fight and could go 29-28 either way, possibly even a split decision. I'm probably going to avoid betting this one and sit back and enjoy as it'll be too close to call IMO. If Iaquinta doesn't allow Pearson to grind him against the fence and possible steal a takedown or two, it could be enough for the judges to score a close round in his favour. Odds of 7/5 are very tempting but it'll be a tough fight to call and probably only worth a low stake bet at most. Ovince Saint Preux - Whilst you can never rule out Shogun, especially in his hometown, I'm surprised by these odds and thought they'd be closer. He was 13/10 the other day and now drifting to 29/20, if this continues he may be closer to 7/4-2/1 come fight night. As long as OSP doesn't show Shogun any respect he should be able to turn this into a grueling fight, and if he can get Shogun against the cage and takedowns he should be able to dig away at Shogun's gas tank whilst taking rounds and helping maintain his own stamina. If he gives Shogun too much respect, this could turn into a standup war and if Shogun lands any bombs this could end quickly. OSP has said he won't be looking to engage and hopefully the he sticks to his gameplan and fights smart. I'm going to wait on this one and see if the odds continue to rise, if he drifts further toward 2/1 then I'll definitely be putting some money on.
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Picks for this weekend, going for a 4 fold on this at just over 2/1: Maximo Blanco @ 4/9 - Simply put, Blanco is better in every area, the only reason why Ogle is getting fights in the UFC is because he's a likable character, he's certainly not up to the standard to stay there. Providing Blanco doesn't DQ himself I can't see him losing. Should be very comfortable. Alcantara @ 1/4 - Same as before Alcantara is on another level to Vaughan Lee, I expect Alcantara to finish this one pretty quickly, he's fought much better opposition and Lee has been beaten pretty comfortably to any notable UFC fighters. Their fighting records alone are enough to tell you how one sided this will be. Gegard Mousas @ 3/10 - As much as I like Munoz, his chin really isn't that great, if he can't get Mousasi to the ground he's going to be in for a long fight. Expect Mousasi to avoid the takedowns and pick Munoz apart on the feet. Munoz will lose confidence in his takedown ability quickly and Mousasi takes advantage on the feet, easy UD victory, wouldn't surprise me to see Mousasi finish this one. Miocic over 1.5 rounds @ 2/5 - I expect this to be a very comfortable victory for Miocic, if he fights anything like his last fight then there's no way he's finishing Maldonado. Miocic wasn't able to KO/TKO Gonzaga who has one of the worst chins in the division, the stats don't lie as 6 of his 8 losses have been by KO. Maldonado has great heart and with that one of the best chins in the heavyweight division. Miocic might be able to get a TKO victory but under the circumstances odds of 2/5 for this to get beyond 1.5 rounds is too good to turn down. Also tempted by Francis Carmont at 8/13 to up the odds - He is a grinder, and there's no surprise that being part of GSP's team he knows how to do enough to win the rounds on the scorecards. Expect Carmont to frustrate Dollaway and grind him against the cage and do just enough to stop the ref from breaking them up. Easy UD victory.
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Re: UFC 173 Bit disappointed with the two losses, however ended 3-2 for the night and ended up with a profit on the last two fights. Dillashaw absolutely stuns the world and beats Barao who was 1/8 favourite at the very best, he completely dominated every round and got the TKO finish in the 5th. Iaquinta had the fight where he wanted and was absolutely dominating only to slip up and get caught in a choke whilst on top. Njokuani nearly couldn't continue after a really bad eye poke, also received a hard low blow minutes later, really didn't help his chances in that fight, especially when Pichel only got a warning both times!
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I know it's late, but here's my picks for tonight's UFC, all odds with Ladbrokes. Picked out all my fighters before the odds came up and disappointed to see how one sided the odds are for this card, had to do a bit more digging to pick out as best value picks as possible. Still not too great odds. Singles on the Lawler and Barao fight plus a treble of the three fighters to win pays roughly 1.31/1: Njokuani @ 2/5 - Njokuani really isn't a bad fighter and has some great octagon experience, I did like Vinc Pichel when he was on The Ultimate Fighter but I can't see him being good enough for the UFC and I'm sure a couple losses in a row will result in him getting dropped, I expect tonight to be the beginning of the end of Pichel's UFC career. Iaquinta @ 2/7 - Iaquinta just gets better and better, he has improved his takedown defense and ground game a huge amount since his submission loss to Chiesa in The Ultimate Fighter finale. Clarke will want this fight to go to the ground and I'm sure the longer this fight stays standing the less Clarke will believe he can take Iaquinta down and get this fight to the mat. Expect Iaquinta to win the exchanges on the feet and potentially get the KO, if not a reasonable comfortable decision victory for Iaquinta, upping his win streak to 4 in the UFC. Holdsworth @ 2/7 - Holdsworth impressed me during his time on The Ultimate Fighter and the fact he is part of Team Alpha Male only encourages me more. That team can't do much wrong at the moment and all their fighters look better and better every fight. Chico Camus can be pretty wild at times and I wouldn't be surprised to see Holdsworth submit Camus, if not a comfortable decision victory. Lawler/Ellenberger to not go the distance @ 8/11 - Lawler and Ellenberger almost never go the distance, and if Lawler is anywhere near as good as he was in the Hendricks fight he shouldn't have too many problems overpowering Ellenberger and getting the knockout victory. Barao/Dillashaw to not go the distance @1/2 - Barao is an absolute machine and is beginning to shine in the UFC, he is becoming a legit finisher these days, having finished his last 3 fights. As much as I like Dillashaw I just think this title fight is too soon for him. He is looking 10 times better every fight but I just can't see him coping with Barao and expect a finish for Barao in rounds 3-5. These odds are actually the same as Barao to win inside the distance, so if Dillashaw shocks the world and finishes Barao this bet still wins and no lesser odds!
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Re: Ufc FN 40 Wish I'd have seen this earlier, I had money on Brown by KO at 3/1 with Ladbrokes, unbelievable odds!
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Re: UFC Fight Night Cheers Ronnie! Made a killing on that card overall. The three paddy power bets were all low stakes and based on pure value, still made some profit off them though with the 7/1 shot of Gastelum by Submission coming in! Bit disappointed with how Tavares took the fight, Bubba was just running away at every opportunity, feel Tavares could have put him away whenever he wanted in the first two rounds but never mind. Plus the 8.86/1 accumulator winning and all three value fighters winning as well! Will try and get a post up for tomorrow's event, will struggle to find anyway near as much value, but there's still a few to be had, think it's overall a much tougher card to call and will struggle to make any kind of substantial profit but it's worth a shot!
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Got a fair few UFC events coming up and I can't wait. Starting with UFC Fight Night tonight. Quite a few close matchups tonight, which is always good as it provides good odds. Bets for tonight: Paddy Power UFC KO Special: Condit and Tavarez both win by KO 4/1 - Really impressed with these odds from Paddy Power, think it's roughly 3.5/1 with the two combined in a standard bet. Tavarez is a bit of a grinder and likes a decision victory, although he does pack a punch, and to be honest, Bubba McDaniel can't take many punches, wouldn't be surprised to see this go to decision, but Bubba is awful and it wouldn't take much to see him give up and the ref to stop the fight (considering Bubba's chin holds up). As for Kampmann, 4/6 of his losses have come by KO/TKO, his first fight with Condit did go to the scorecards (split decision win), but Condit is a much better fighter than he was 4 years ago and has something to prove after losing 2 straight (to arguably the best two fighters in the division in the champ GSP and number one contender Hendricks). With it being 5 rounds, I just see it giving Condit more time to find the finish, which I expect to see in rounds 2 or 3. All in all, really good odds of 4/1. Kelvin Gastelum by Submission 7/1 - Really impressed with Gastelum throughout The Ultimate Fighter, holds a professional record of 6-0 with half of these wins by submission, added to his reign in the house of 2/4 wins also coming by submission. Melancon is a decent fighter and both his losses have come by decision, with stepping in on short notice, i'd like to think Gastelum will be the more prepared fighter and won't be scared to take this to the ground, and with a track record of 50% of his fights winning by submission, I can't pass up these odds of 7/1. Court Mcgee by Submission 7/1 - Pretty similar reasons to Gastelum, 7/15 of Mcgee's fights have ended by submission, great success rate. Whittaker has impresed me with his time on TUF, but from what i've seen, he seems a one dimensional fighter. Nothing suggests he has much of a ground game or is able to fight off his back, and I'm sure whilst Mcgee might be willing to stand and trade, he may have to resort to taking Whittaker down and testing him on the ground. Would expect Mcgee stands more chance of submitting Whittaker rather than finishing him by KO/TKO. And finally, my accumulator with Bet365 of: Thatch Andrews Tavarez McGee Gastelum Condit @ 8.86/1 Explanations above for 4/6 of these fighters + Dylan Andrews impressed me massively on TUF and looked great on his UFC debut, expect him to take Abedi down and show some vicious ground and pound, likely to finish him in the 1st/2nd by KO/TKO. As for Brandon Thatch, holds a record of 9-1, boasting an 8 fight winning streak going into his UFC debut, all wins have been first round finishes and I think he's barely had 10 minutes in the octagon from all his wins. Justin Edwards isn't too bad a fighter and certainly impressed with his last win against Josh Neer, but this seems like a step-in fight, UFC like to hype fighters up, providing Thatch can cope with the nerves of his UFC debut, it seems this has been set up to build him some valuable experience in the UFC and to hopefully keep his streak running. Other than that, a few more singles which seem decent odds to me based on previous fights i've seen, which i'll probably have small singles on, all with Bet365: Zak Cummings @ 4/5 Darren Elkins @ 13/10 Rafael Dos Anjos @ 11/10
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Re: Newcastle United v Fulham > Sat 31st August Interested in Fulham DNB at 13/8 (PaddyPower), Newcastle in all sorts of problems at the moment against a Fulham team who have made a few shrewd loan signings in Parker, Taarabt and Bent. Would be nice to see Bent start who will feel he has something to prove and will want to pick up where he left off scoring from the bench against Arsenal. Also if Stekelenburg is back as predicted, it will only give Newcastle less of a chance of getting anything from the game.
UFC Fight Night Sunday 23rd November
in Boxing & UFC Predictions
Posted
Re: UFC Fight Night Sunday 23rd November 100% with you on this one. Yes, Barboza has some horrible leg kicks but I can't trust someone with a glass jaw when he's fighting a very technical striker. I expect Bobby Green to finish him in all honesty. Can get that at 4/1 with Unibet, he's also drifted to 6/5 with Unibet, and I expect him to keep drifting, I'm going to wait for him to drift to 6/4 or further before putting any money down. The only thing stopping me betting big is that Bobby Green has hinted this could be his last fight and he has had some awful family issues of recent times which makes you question if his head is going to be in the right place come fight night. Still, if he drifts to 6/4 I can't say no to that, will have a small flier on the KO/TKO at 4/1 as well.