AaronCruicky
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Posts posted by AaronCruicky
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Re: Sky Bet Championship Play-Offs > May 8th & 9th Wigan/QPR H2H: Wigan 0-0 QPR & QPR 1-0 Wigan. Without hesitation, the under 2.5 goals - 13/20 looks a play here. QPR have lost 10 away games this season, including 4/6 away games. Wigan's home form is good enough to see them take a 1st leg advantage. Therefore, I like Wigan to win - 5/4.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship Play-Offs > May 8th & 9th Brighton/Derby Going into this game, Brighton are unbeaten in 8 games & Derby are unbeaten in 6. Derby finished 15pts ahead of Brighton and won both meetings between the sides this season. H2H: Brighton 1-2 Derby & Derby 1-0 Brighton. I like Derby to win - 17/10. They have scored 84 goals in the league, and have scored the most away goals in the league. Brighton have only scored 55 goals this season & goals win games in the playoffs. Derby have shown they're capable of winning at Brighton as well. Derby to qualify - 4/7 Derby 2-1 - 11/1, Derby win & BTTS - 5/1 both possible. +2.5goals - 29/20, Brighton need to win but feel Derby will score. Like this more than -2.5goals - 1/2.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 29th - May 3rd Leicester/Doncaster Leicester have best home record in league - W16-D4-L2. Doncaster have the worst away record - W2-D7-L13. Doncaster do need the points to avoid relegation, but Leicester want to get 100pts for the season. Leicester win - 1.60. Leeds/Derby Leeds have won the last 3 of 4 matches, however these were vs. teams below them - Barnsley, Birmingham & Blackpool. In their last 6, they've lost vs Watford, Wigan & Forest - all above Leeds in the table. Leeds have lost 4/6 home games, Derby have won last 2 away & 5 in a row. They are guaranteed 3rd place, so my rest a few for the playoffs though. Derby win - 2.25. Ipswich/Sheff Wed Ipswich have a very strong home record, BTTS landed in last 4 home games. Sheff Wed have conceded 16 goals in last 6 games, BTTS & +2.5goals have landed in their last 7 games. They only have 1 win in 6 & 1 away win in 6 as well. Ipswich win & BTTS - 3.70 +2.5goals - 1.70. Watford/Huddersfield Watford have lost their last 3 games (all away), but are unbeaten in 9 at home, winning 4 of last 6 home games. Huddersfield have 1 win in 10 games (away at bottom club Yeovil). +2.5goals has landed in 9/10 Watford games, including 5/6 home games. BTTS has landed in last 5 consecutive for Watford & last 3 away in a row for Town. +2.5goals - 1.66 Watford win & BTTS - 3.60. Bolton/Birmingham Bolton have won 4/6 games, whilst Birmingham have lost 5 in a row and 4/6 away games. Birmingham need the points to stay up, but I can't see them doing it. +2.5 goals - 1.66 Bolton win & BTTS - 2.37. Nottm Forest/Brighton & Reading/Burnley. Reading need a win to get 6th & playoff, Brighton need to better Reading's result to get 6th. Brighton are unbeaten in 7 games as well. Reading's home form isn't the greatest, Burnley have the 2nd best away record in the league, unbeaten in 6 away games. I'm not convinced by either Brighton or Reading, as both have struggled to secure 6th place. No bet for me in either.
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > April 29th - May 3rd Crawley/Carlisle Crawley are safe in midtable, but Carlisle are in trouble in 3rd bottom, 4pts from safety & will be relegated with a loss here. They also will be without the services of Gary Madine because of a curfew. Crawley have lost 3 games, then won 3 games, and are now on a 2 game losing streak. They do boast 5 home wins from 8 though. Carlisle, on the other hand are struggling with only a solitary win from their last 8 games and also have won 1/8 away games and have subsequently lost 6/8 away games. Keeping it simple: Crawley win - 5/4
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > April 29th - May 3rd Oldham/Sheff Utd Oldham are mathematically safe from relegation & Sheff Utd can't reach the playoffs. In general, -2.5goals has landed in last 7/8 Oldham games and 6/8 at home. For Sheff Utd, it has landed in previous 6/8 games and in 6/9 away games. Also worth to note that BTTS hasn't landed in 5/8 Oldham games & last 5/8 of their home games. For Sheff Utd, BTTS No has landed in 5 of their last 8 games & 7/9 away games. Therefore: BTTS No - 4/5 Under 2.5 goals - 8/13 side bet: Sheff Utd win - 17/10 - Utd have won last 5/9 away matches (4/5 were BTTS No & Under 2.5goals); Oldham have won previous 2/9 home matches (both 1-0).
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 29th - May 3rd Charlton/Watford. Charlton need the points more in order to stay up, Watford sit midtable and can't mathematically get into the playoffs. Charlton have won 1/6 at home - (vs. bottom of table Yeovil) & 1 of last 5 games. Watford have won 1/9 away from home but have only been beaten away at Derby & QPR (3rd & 4th placed) in their last 8 games. Watford also without some key players & tend to concede alot of late goals. Watford have scored in each of their last 11 games, also scored 1st in each of those games. Watford's last 6 away games & 8/10 in total have seen BTTS land. Additionally, their previous 5 league games & last 6 away games have seen over 2.5 goals land as well. However, Charlton have only seen BTTS hit in last 3/9 home games - possibly due to the state of the pitch at The Valley. Bets to consider: BTTS - 7/10 +2.5 goals - 5/6 side bet - Charlton win & BTTS 10/3. Birmingham/Wigan Birmingham are in freefall, they find themselves in the relegation zone (3rd bottom) after losing 4 games on the bounce. They only have 2 home wins all season and also haven't won at home since October. Wigan also seem to be running out of steam after a long season dealing with the league, FA Cup & Europa League, but still in the playoffs and a win here would guarantee it for them. They have won previous 4/8 away matches, however, they have lost last 3/4 games. BTTS has landed in 8/9 Birmingham home matches and in 7/8 last games. As has +2.5goals. Wigan win - 21/20 BTTS - 7/10 +2.5 goals - 5/6 side bet - Wigan win & BTTS 29/10.
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Re: Manchester United v Norwich City > Saturday April 26th
3/3. Lovely!Where I stand on this: Utd - no value at 1.36/1.4 whatsoever. Norwich - wouldn't touch either. They are struggling badly. They have improved slightly under Adams compared to Hughton, but not enough for me. Played well vs Fulham/Liverpool? Better than previous, but still not up to the standard. Norwich are the lowest scorers in the league with 28 goals in 35 games, 4th worst defence and 2nd worst goal difference. They couldn't score vs. a Fulham side who have conceded 77 goals in 35 goals (2 per game) this season and were 2-0 down at home to Liverpool inside 10mins. As a matchup, Utd won 4-0 at home in the League Cup & 1-0 away in the League. Again, showing Norwich's problems in front of goal. Norwich have lost 8 away games in a row. Utd win the game, I'm fairly sure of that. However, I feel there's more ways in: Utd -1 (2-0/3-1) @1.95, +2.5goals (3-0/2-1) @1.57, +3.5goals(3-1/4-1) @2.37 - all very possible, in case Norwich can find a goal. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 25th & 26th Derby/Watford Derby won 4 in a row, and won last 4 at home. Playing a Watford side, who's playoff aspirations have gone, only 1 away win 5 but have scored in last 10 consecutive games. Derby win @2.0. Derby win & BTTS @3.5 - conceded in 4 of last games; Watford scored in last 10. side bet: Derby 2-1 @8.5 QPR/Millwall QPR already in playoffs (most likely vs. Wigan). Won 4 of last 5 home games, Millwall unbeaten in 6, won last 3 away games. They need the points more to avoid relegation. Millwall +1 @1.80 Sheff Wed/Bolton Looking at the home sides injury problems and the amount of goals at Hillsborough lately - 1-4 vs Watford, 3-3 vs Blackburn & 2-3 vs Charlton. All +3.5goals. Last 6 swfc games - 1-4, 2-1, 3-3, 3-3, 2-4, 2-3. All BTTS & +2.5goals. Bolton win @3.3 +2.5goals @1.83 side bet: +3.5goals @3.0 Wins -> Leicester @2.1, Derby @2.0, Wigan @1.44, Reading @2.20. 4 fold - @13.4. 5 fold + QPR @2.0 - @26.7.
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > April 25th & 26th Wolves - champions, won 7 of last 8 games. Coventry 4th worst defence in league, conceding 74 goals. Wolves win @1.9 Brentford already promoted. No away win in 5 though. Orient, Rotherham & Preston guaranteed playoffs, all with favourable home games. However, Orient only have 2 wins in 10, 1 home win in 5. Rotherham @1.75 & Preston @1.5 wins. Peterboro & Swindon going for 6th. P'Boro with 4 wins in 6 and play 2nd bottom, practically relegated Shrewsbury. Despite P'Boro losing 4 of last 5 away games, I feel they get the win they need. P'Boro @1.85 Elsewhere, Bristol City at home to Crewe. City won 3 in a row and unbeaten in 5 at home. Crewe have won 3 away in a row (all vs bottom half teams), but sit 5th bottom. Bristol City @2.15 Also, 5 fold combined at around 20/1.
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Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Sunday April 27th Liverpool focused on the league, Chelsea focused on Champions League. Keeping it simple, Liverpool win @1.7.
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Re: Southampton v Everton > Saturday April 26th Southampton's season fizzling out after Rodriguez's injury at City, lost 3 of last 5 games and haven't scored in last 2. Can only see them finishing 8th, no higher or lower. Everton are the better team, will be full of confidence after Sunday's win vs Man Utd but will be without Mirallas & Distin. They needs the points more, and can play possession football and counterattack. They have also won 3 away games on the bounce. Main bet: Everton win @2.6 Side bets: Everton 2-1 @10.0 & Everton win+BTTS @4.4
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Re: Manchester United v Norwich City > Saturday April 26th Where I stand on this: Utd - no value at 1.36/1.4 whatsoever. Norwich - wouldn't touch either. They are struggling badly. They have improved slightly under Adams compared to Hughton, but not enough for me. Played well vs Fulham/Liverpool? Better than previous, but still not up to the standard. Norwich are the lowest scorers in the league with 28 goals in 35 games, 4th worst defence and 2nd worst goal difference. They couldn't score vs. a Fulham side who have conceded 77 goals in 35 goals (2 per game) this season and were 2-0 down at home to Liverpool inside 10mins. As a matchup, Utd won 4-0 at home in the League Cup & 1-0 away in the League. Again, showing Norwich's problems in front of goal. Norwich have lost 8 away games in a row. Utd win the game, I'm fairly sure of that. However, I feel there's more ways in: Utd -1 (2-0/3-1) @1.95, +2.5goals (3-0/2-1) @1.57, +3.5goals(3-1/4-1) @2.37 - all very possible, in case Norwich can find a goal.
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Re: Liverpool v Manchester United > Sun 1st September Liverpool finished 7th last year. Against the teams that finished above them (Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs & Everton), Liverpool only won 1 of those 12 games last season - 3-2 home win vs Spurs. Not great. From what I've seen so far, Liverpool have some tidy passing, but lack cutting edge outside of some Sturridge brilliance and getting away with some edgy 1-0 wins. Stoke scored the fewest goals in the league away from home last year. Villa only won 5 games at home last year (only the relegated sides managed fewer) and only scored 23 home goals (only QPR, Stoke and Sunderland managed fewer home goals last season). So those results were expected and therefore Liverpool could have been more commanding and emphatic but weren't. The difference is I feel that Man Utd can score 2 or 3 goals if needed whilst Liverpool will create chances but have a low conversion rate and only score 1 or 2 goals. I like Man Utd to get a derby away win @19/10. As it is a derby, I'd look to back the chance of yellow and red cards to occur as well: Red Card @21/10. 4-6 bookings @10/11.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > 20th / 24th & 25th August
Ince is back after his 2 match ban (missed Barnsley & Boro games). Phillips is still out. Blackpool - won 2 drew 1, but have played Doncaster, Boro & Barnsley, teams expected to be nearer the bottom of the table. Also, their winning goals vs Barnsley and Doncaster both came in the last minute. Reading - won 1 drew 2, have beaten a solid Ipswich side and drew vs fellow promotion hopefuls Bolton and Watford. Reading did lead Watford 2-0 & 3-1, but ended up drawing 3-3 late on. Odds wise, BTTS @8/13 may be a bit short, so Reading WIN @7/4 or Reading to WIN & BTTS @4/1 look the best value here. *All prices William Hill.blackpool v reading looks an interesting match up. ince still out for blackpool. And phillips. More or less workman like performances since ince out. brought in fuller and Delfouneso in this week, not sure about ready starters or maybe subs. Prob lucky to get lucky late winner v barnsley in last home. reading looked good v bolton in last away game. Not read much about watford game yet. reading odds already shortening and will prob shorten more coz big team/squad relagated prem team. dont know much more about them coz just come into championship. What do other ppl thinking? -
Re: Arsenal v Aston Villa - Sat 17th August
Okay scrap that, Walcott and Wilshere both started for England tonight and Cazorla started for Spain in Ecuador. The latter however, has had time off due to the Confederations Cup so not much of a preseason so far. Also, travelling to South America isn't the best preparation for the start of the season just days away. First point still remains for Arsenal though.But that's the issue I have with Arsenal. The priority is surely qualifying for the CL atm. Therefore, with the Fenerbahce game days later (away as well), will they take their eye off this fixture? A fixture that last year they scraped a 2-1 win with 2 late Cazorla goals. Are their key players Walcott, Wilshere, Cazorla fit enough to feature? Arsenal at 4/11 (William Hill), for example is too short a price for me, when Villa do pose a serious threat. -
Re: Swansea City v Manchester United - Sat 17th August
Apologies. Swansea - made some very good signings in Shelvey and Bony. The fact that they've had Europa League games may mean that they are more match fit than Utd. Playing at home, so the crowd and players will be up for it. Utd - will be in transition with Moyes. Questions if the likes of Rooney, Young, Nani etc. will feature. RVP looked in good form on Sunday as did the defence to limit Wigan to 1 shot all game (0 shots on target). I feel that both teams will score and the meeting last season at Liberty Stadium ended 1-1. Therefore, as I can't seem to be able to separate them, and it being the 1st game of the season (though both have played competitive games already somewhat), a draw is the most likely scenario for me.Need more reasoning than that -
Re: Antepost > Premier League Relegation The way I see it, it is Hull, Palace +1. The value is predicting who the +1 is. Candidates: Cardiff, Fulham, Villa, Stoke, Newcastle & Sunderland. Benteke staying and Villa's youngsters gaining some experience could see Villa safe. Newcastle and Sunderland could go either way, got the players to survive but if results don't come they could fall apart (on and off the field). Fulham and Stoke will be down there as they have terrible away records and don't score many. Both do have wealthy owners, so can spend big, but can they convince quality players to go there? Cardiff have been knocking on the Prem door after losing in the playoffs 3 years in a row before winning the league last season. Made some decent signings, whether they can survive and establish themselves as a prem team (like Swansea) remains to be seen. Overall, Fulham and Sunderland look like good value there.
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Re: Swansea City v Manchester United - Sat 17th August Scoredraw. Most probably 1-1.
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Re: Arsenal v Aston Villa - Sat 17th August
Arsenal will look sharp and win comfortably. A few days later they travel to Turkey and NOT winning here at the Emirates will be a huuuge blow. Wenger and the management have always been making money for the club and anything that threatens CL millions' date=' they will not take it lying down. Expect Arsenal to score 3-4 goals. Easy home win![/quote'] But that's the issue I have with Arsenal. The priority is surely qualifying for the CL atm. Therefore, with the Fenerbahce game days later (away as well), will they take their eye off this fixture? A fixture that last year they scraped a 2-1 win with 2 late Cazorla goals. Are their key players Walcott, Wilshere, Cazorla fit enough to feature? Arsenal at 4/11 (William Hill), for example is too short a price for me, when Villa do pose a serious threat.
Sky Bet Championship Play-Offs > May 8th & 9th
in Championship Predictions
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Re: Sky Bet Championship Play-Offs > May 8th & 9th
Sound, everything landed so far. Great game of football to start the playoffs off.