trollerboy
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Posts posted by trollerboy
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Re: Free picks frenzy Hello i´d be interested what has become of your system/observations. I might also be able to contribute an idea to discussion.
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Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs p.s.: unfirtunately then the strike rate is at 20-25%. so there definetely is a correlation between ROI an "action". my advice would be to include the draw when the odds for the bet are too high.
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Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs hello just to give my input as i´ve already found that it´s not good to bet odds
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Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs hello you could you send me the spreadsheet please? [email protected] thanks sascha
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Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs @bigbugbuzz what are these selections based on? do you know how they derive them from their betgraphs?
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Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs just leave out all odds 20%
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Re: Steamers & Drifters maybe i will try to paper trial this, too. but it would be good if you could tell us your results.
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Re: Steamers & Drifters Hello can you tell what has become of your concept? (back drifters, lay steamers) Strangely , in a different thread on another forum i´ve read someone saying the opposite: he was backing steames (taken from oddschecker). so, i´m a bit confused.
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Re: h2h ratings there´s is no such thing at h2h.com are u sure this is the correct address?
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Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results would be interesting to see what results are after 1000 bets. and a performance graph would also be interesting
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Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats for oddscomparison: www.oddsoddsodds.com www.betexplorer.com www.tip-ex.com
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Re: Rugby Quarb System can you tell where to get infos about this for soccer?
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Re: Converting Elo ratings into odds @asc good work. i´ve also read buchdahls book and know about those models. what did you use: just the results or also shots on target/corners data? did you do that for leagues throughout europe? did you do that also for away wins? for you home wins: can you tell me the yield if you only had taken value bets with odds >1.9 ?
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Re: Head-to Head Meetings can´t send PM maybe i don´t have enough posts yes. says something about 50 posts will work on it
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Re: Head-to Head Meetings hello jtw1, can you tell me in which other forum you have your threads?
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Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats so far plopplop has given 14 picks. average odds: 3.57 even with an ROI of 120% the strike rate would only be at 33-34 %. generally speaking , the strike rate will roughly be in the region of around 30% (somewhere between 25-35%). with a strike rate low as this, losing streaks of 12 losing bets are not really uncommon. so, the bad start just means nothing. it´s just very normal. one has adjust the stake size to the low strike rate.
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Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats @plopplopp a losing streak of 10 or 11 bets is not that incredible, especially given the high odds of your picks. i´ve done some betting and in 860 bets i had a strike rate of approx. 60%. average odds were at about 1.85-1.9. losing streaks of 8 bets were very common. so with your odds being even higher, it´s not too surprising to get this losing streak. the bad thing is just that you get it at the start. but it shouldn´t be taken too seriously. so get on with it!
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Re: Betting against the public (soccer) one could for example look at the odds development before the match starts. when the odds are lowering massively , maybe that´s a sign of the public betting heavily on it.
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Re: Free picks frenzy this is really starting to convince me and maybe could motivate me to further investigation of free picks So far i´ve only examined some typically European-style free predictions and picks websites (most of which were non-commercial). But maybe on the US-Sports side there are also some free picks. Maybe i´ll examine some. Can anyone name some sites he thinks are worth it? And also, are these touts just good at NBA? What about other sports? facts: 332 bets 34 units profit 10.3% ROI result of chance: 2.7% I think there´s a trend when looking at the profit graph! staking plan: i´d rather use level stakes. I´m not into Martingale or progressive staking. For me it´s only a decision between fixed (level) staking or fixed profit! In my own betting experiment following free tipsters i found that the result with fixed stake is better than fixed profit. I was surprised. So, i would advise fixed stake which can be a fixed percentage of the hopefully growing betting bank.
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Re: Free picks frenzy good stuff , player if you don´t mind i´ll give some stats & coments of your performance maybe once or twice a week. i´ve put your bets in an excel sheet (not the name of the teams and not the name of the tipster), just the profit/loss, accumulated profit, level stake, accumulated stake, ROI. i´ve put all the bets into the sheet; in some cases i think you haven´t recorded bets because two tipsters were contradicting each other. still i also recorded those bets. it would have taken too long to filter these. i don´t think that this changes the results significantly. it´s just faster for me. so far: 302 bets stake: 302 profit: 27.07 ROI: 8.97% statistical test says: 5% probability that result has come by chance quite good. this makes me think: Maybe this project could be extended to some more free picks sites. Maybe we can make a list of interesting sites. And then do some similar observations. for a start: procappers.com wagerline.com one more thought: maybe then a consensus of tipsters would make results better!
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Re: I need system and strategy !!! to me it seems he´s just making fun ...
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Re: Free picks frenzy I also think the decimal odds are better than the us odds, but don´t worry the british fractional odds are even more stupid. don´t know why they still use it. maybe tradition. but back to the topic of the thread. player, i examined your results: ROI : approx. 6-7% I examined by just staking 1 unit per bet. The profit curve does show an upwards direction, but with very much horizontal movement. I´ve also done a statistical T-Test (i´m not a statistician, but i´ve read about this test in a betting book). The result of the test says that there is an 15% probability that your result has come about by chance. That´s not too bad, but not too good either. Honestly , you can better picks for free.
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Re: Free picks frenzy @player hey, do you have your picks in an Excel sheet? Then i could do some analysis on it.
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Re: Free picks frenzy hi just calculated your ROI with level staking: 6.2 %
Cavelloman's Ratings and Systems .
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Cavelloman's Ratings and Systems . @cavelloman where can i read about the basis/theory/thoughts behind your models. where did it all start? thanks sascha