assange
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Posts posted by assange
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)
Well I see its from another website and have gotten the unprotected copy. Thanks for tipping me to it anyway!Hello Zbrochu, I really like your ledger spreadsheet. Its beautifully done. Would you share the password to unprotect the locked worksheets? -
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)
Hello Zbrochu, I really like your ledger spreadsheet. Its beautifully done. Would you share the password to unprotect the locked worksheets? I would like to use your ledger for my own betting and would need to edit some of the settings, etc. Thanks very much for sharing!Meanwhile we created a detailed excel sheet of the season here: HERE -
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Re: Serie A > 4th - 5th May
Dont know but I put a double on Atalanta-Bologna draw and Juve Stabia-Ternana draw last weekend because the odds were so strange and it won.what do the bookies know that we don't -
Re: Serie A > 27th - 29th April I know Inter's form has been terrible and they have more injured players than healthy, but do people here agree with the odds for them? My feeling is that even this depleted Inter has far more quality than bottom-dweller Palermo and hence, 0AH @ 2.3 or even +1/2 @ 1.7 might represent value. Yes, Palermo is in a fight not be relegated and should have plenty of motivation, but they have only won 5 games all year (tho, 4 were at home). In terms of Inter's motivation, a European spot is still a very achievable possibility. Just my 2 cents...
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Re: Serie A > 27th - 29th April
No betfair for me as I'm stuck in the us. I don't even know what you mean by liquidity...You should be checking the draw odds in Atalanta x Bologna, as well as the liquidity if you're into Betfair... weird stuff heh? -
Re: Serie A > 27th - 29th April
Hahaha I'm jealousI'm pretty stoned, so apologies if this post makes no sense :) -
Re: Serie A > 27th - 29th April Does anyone know why the draw is priced so low in the Atalanta-Bologna match? My online books (5dimes & Bovada) have it at 2.56 and 2.60 respectively. Is there some team news that I am unaware of to make the books assign almost 40% chance to the draw here? Just to add, whenever I see draws priced like this I am always tempted to take them because (A) it seems like the books may be signaling something and (B) because odds of 2.6 are high enough to put a sum on and get a decent return. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
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Re: Serie A > 13th - 15th April
Are you worried that El Shaarawy isn't starting? I am. :(Milan: Abbiati; Abate' date= Zapata, Mexes, Constant; Flamini, Montolivo, Muntari;Boateng, Pazzini, Robinho Napoli: De Sanctis; Campagnaro, Cannavaro, Britos; Maggio, Behrami,Dzemaili, Hamsik, Zuniga; Pandev, Cavani Milan - Napoli matches have always been special. Milan are in a must win situation to get closer to second place and open the gap between fourth Fiorentina before the up-coming Juventus game. Milan are enjoying a long unbeaten run and have proved that they are on the right track recently. Napoli seems to found a good form and won three games in a row. El Shaarawy interestingly is going to start on the bench, perhaps he wasn't in a good shape for the last few rounds, that can be a reason. Napoli midfielder, Inler is going to start on the bench, probably Dzemaili's nice form is the reason. Still Milan have a better midfield to have more possession and defensively great full-backs to stop Napoli's dangerous wingers. Expectations on a close match but Milan's current form makes the Rossoneri slight favorites of winning this one. My call is 2-1 Milan -0.5 and O 2.5 both 5u :hope -
Re: Bundesliga > 12th - 14th April
Uh, what game? Which teams?This game has the highest value rating on the over 2.5 goals market at 37% value. These two teams have featured in 70 similar games recently and over 2.5 goals have been scored in 61% of those games representing 1.63 in odds. 2.23 is widely available here, so a great value selection from a stats point of view. -
Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April
Which teams? Which analysis? You left out some pretty important info.The draw has occurred in 40% of similar games featuring these two teams. 3.60 is widely available but I put the odds at more like 2.5 based on the stats. The value on the draw is 44% on this analysis. -
Re: Borussia Dortmund v Málaga > Tue 9th April wow
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Re: Bundesliga > 5th - 7th April
Haha. If USA is involved, then OF COURSE! But it'll be a losing war obviously...Great!!Is there a war coming up..?:) -
Re: Schalke v Galatasaray > Tue 12th March I would like to back Gala, but it must be said that it was not only dreadful defending in the 1st leg which hurt them, but also poor tactics. Terim set them up in a 4-4-2 with Sneijder wide (left, if memory serves). Being a natural #10 Sneijder was coming inside frequently and leaving the flank wide open for Farfan to exploit, which he did quite well. There were numerous opportunities on crosses and attacks from that side which should have been converted (only 1 was). Plus I don't think the 4-4-2 suits Gala in this matchup because of the man disadvantage in midfield against Schalke's 4-2-3-1 and arguably, more talented midfielders (though without Jones). Melo and Inan were outmatched and out-manned most of the match. Obviously, Terim wants to deploy the 2 forwards, Drogba and Yilmaz, but I hope he comes up with a different system today than was on display in February.
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Re: Schalke v Galatasaray > Tue 12th March I agree with the comments about Schalke regaining some form and Gala losing theirs, but no one has mentioned that Huntelaar was injured on Saturday and (from what I read) is out. That leaves only Pukki up front as Marica is also out. Even though Gala's defending was woeful in the 1st game, going up against a weakened Schalke attack is surely a positive for them.
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Re: Bundesliga 2 > 8th - 11th March
No need to be sorry. Your match preview was still spot-on and to me suggested the "safer" AH play (although I stayed out of this one).Braunschweig - K'lautern 1:1 FT (0:1 Weiser 44.min, 1:1 Kumbela 78.min) Blahhh... :( Instead of Lautern +1/2 which was my initial bet, I was too greedy and decided to push the luck with the ridiculous bet on away win. Sorry! -
Re: Bundesliga 2 > 8th - 11th March
Followed & won! Excellent tip! Thank you very muchSt.Pauli - Regensburg OVER 2.5 (2.00 at Pinnacle) Far from being a dead cert, banker or whatever you call it...St.Pauli ain't the most creative side around, so it would be no surprise if this match turns into a boring goalless draw. However, the fact is that, under the current circumstances, the draw is pointless for either side. Due to injury problems and many changes during the summer, St.Pauli have been struggling throughout the whole season and are still pretty much involved in the relegation battle. In other words, they simply can't afford to drop too many points in this sort of home matches if they're to avoid the relegation drama, so there's no doubt they'll go all out to win this one as they always do in front of home fans. On the other hand, with only 10 rounds to go and with 7 points below safe zone, Regensburg have really nothing to wait for. They've simply got to start picking up the points as soon as possible, even away from home. So, I can see them pushing St.Pauli all the way and at least trying to make an upset here. In other words, I can definitely see the goals here...Regensburg are a typical overish side, with a very shaky defense, but well capable of scoring. -
Re: Anzhi v Newcastle Utd > Thursday 7th March
OK. Looks like Eshchenko is a new signing and Ewerton is back from loan. Nevermind :)Who are Ewerton and Eschenko in Anzhi's back 4 and why are they playing??? I know little about this team, but stats show Tagirbekov and Logashov to be regular starters. Ewerton has played 1 match and Eshchenko hasn't played at all! Starting to worry... -
Re: Anzhi v Newcastle Utd > Thursday 7th March Who are Ewerton and Eschenko in Anzhi's back 4 and why are they playing??? I know little about this team, but stats show Tagirbekov and Logashov to be regular starters. Ewerton has played 1 match and Eshchenko hasn't played at all! Starting to worry...
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Re: Football forecasting system
Thanks, this answers my question. But to clarify, I was speaking about selectivity: When back-testing my model's predictions against historical odds, I get a a range of values for HW, D and AW with the HW and AW between ~10% and ~90% (per match). For example ManU-Blackburn from 11/2007, I get 87%--9%--4% (HDA), which self-explanatory. But I was asking about when HW or AW are around 45% or even 40%--ex: Tottenham-Bolton (10/08) 46%--28%--26% (HDA)? Much of the time is Draw territory, yes, but is it worth checking for for value for HW and AW here also? Again, your solution to adjust the predictions (for commission, etc) and then calculate edge appears to address these concerns and furthermore, would seem prudent. I will have a go at applying your method. Best of luck with your modeling.As for you question on edge. Not 100% sure what you mean. The model directly gives out probabilities of HDW that add up to 100%. I then alter the odds taking into account commission charge and then i normally move the odds another 5% which is the level i will accept. The odds that i like to take are therefore 10% away from the model "fair" odds by the time i bet. This isn't set in stone though. If you run one of the models on the website you can see the "fair" odds and then the scaled odds. -
Re: Football forecasting system
From the graphs on your website' date=' it looks like you use Stata. I am also a Stata-user (occasionally R) [/quote'] Ignore that. They are cearly excel graphs. Its been a long day... -
Re: Football forecasting system I am also working on ordered logit models (among others), but am very much in the beginning stages. Can I ask you, when your model gives you WDL probabilities what are the cut-offs you use for each in determining edge? For example, say 4 games have predicted HW percentages of 75%, 60, 50 and 45% respectively. Do you calculate edge against the odds for all of them or do you have a minimum % that you stop at? And not just for HW, but D and AW as well. I'm looking for some rules of thumb or best practices regarding this as it seems that this one of the components of sports modeling which is more art than science. Thanks.
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Re: Football forecasting system From the graphs on your website, it looks like you use Stata. I am also a Stata-user (occasionally R) and am working on ordered logit models (among others), but am very much in the beginning stages. Can I ask you, when your model gives you WDL probabilities what are the cut-offs you use for each in determining edge? For example, say 4 games have predicted HW percentages of 75%, 60, 50 and 45% respectively. Do you calculate edge against the odds for all of them or do you have a minimum % that you stop at? And not just for HW, but D and AW as well. I'm looking for some rules of thumb or best practices regarding this as it seems that this one of the components of sports modeling which is more art than science. Thanks.
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Re: Grex's HOMES; 361 bets; +10.9% yield Just wanted to say thanks Grex. Been following for a while and finally pulled the trigger on OVERs & HOMEs this weekend. Nice system to be sure.
Serie B > Sat 18th May
in Italian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May
My books (5dimes & Bovada) didn't even bother offering lines on these 2 matches (Verona & Novarra). Seems to me like they weren't going risk the possibility of a fix...