smaxwell76
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Posts posted by smaxwell76
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? I have studied this pretty extensively and kept records over the course of 5000+ bets over 18 months and can beat SP by an average of 40% resulting in a 10%+ ROI, as Aidymac says tho the trade off is frequent account closures :(
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Re: The Foxhunter Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 4:00pm Super write up, am a long time lurker on this this site and happy to follow advice on things i know nothing about, had £20 at 28/1 on Following Dreams to place, cracking shout!
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Wednesday July 2nd Worcester 14:50 - Captain Knock 13/2 - Bet365
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition ~ Tuesday July 1st 15:00 Brighton Penny's Boy @ 11/2 Paddy Power
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday November 2nd 1.35 Ascot - Uptosomething - 1pt win @ 9/4 B365 Impressive win on season debut over trip which is prob a bit short for him, i'd imagine he'll improve for the step up and ran well in 2nd in a C1 to progressive Puffin Billy on previous run here. Horse has 6 wins from 11 starts and stable still in great form.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 1st November 17:55 - Wolverhampton - Back On Baileys - 9/2 - Paddy Power 3rd LTO, got banged about badly at the start but took the eye finishing very strongly. Winner has since won off higher mark. Long time lurker but first post so go easy on me :)
'Beating SP' - Does it matter?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I'm not sure i agree with those that think that it's more to do with finding winners than finding value. Since a horses' SP is driven by the opinion of thousands of punters it will 'on average' end up at a price reflecting just slightly lower than it's true chance of winning the race. If you can 'on average' beat the SP by a big enough percentage you will be getting a price greater than the true chance of the horse winning the race and as such guarantee a profit in the long term.