usun
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Posts posted by usun
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
I really don't get the point of Bate not being motivated' date=' because qualifying for the next stage of either CL or EL will disrupt their winter preparation. First, winning tonight means a few more millions of euro in BATE's account, and believe - these money are vital for this team. Unlike Lille, they don't play in a fancy league where they get full stadiums at high prices and a lot of merchandise income. European money are key to BATE's development and growth, so each point they could win in CL is crucial for them. Second, BATE has been the champions of Belarus for six or seven consecutive years and they face absolutely no competition at home. I mean this is not the Premiership where for instance playing in Europe League might distract you and make you fail to qualify for CL. Even with a disruption in their winter pre-season preparation, BATE should easily earn another title and at the same time be ready for CL qualifyiers in July.[/quote'] they got all money they planned + extra this season already. no pressure at all. their club strategy is to get to CL group stage and grab their annual budget out of this alone achievement. They are planning their season to get to the peak in August-September, when it's just a start of the season in the most of Europe and they regularly catch offguard their opponents during qualification and first 2-3 rounds in group stage. And after that they are out of fuel. They do need to get to group stage to survive from management perspective, and any points in group or playoff - are just bonuses for now. In several years of such gradual development they might be deep and rich enough to keep strength through most of the year, but not now. Plus they should not only invest, but also save and be ready every year they don't get to CL and need to survive this. however, it's not fair from my side to write all this AFTER the game, so I'll just stop. My advice for both score also didn't work out. -
Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
he always says this, he cannot tell otherwise to the press.Best thing here is to read what the Bate manager says regarding motivation. He thinks they are motivated. From a betting perspective I think we have to take his word for it. http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-preview/274067/bate-borisov-v-lille -
Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) zero effort from BATE, as I expected. the only surprise they failed to score. just ensured EL playoff.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I read today that Lille will be without 6 players from the starting line-up, they went without them to Minsk. Not sure about all positions affected, but it suddenly looks good for HW. Seems defenders and mid-field mostly, so BATE should score some even with their bad shape. Out: Chedjou (midfield, inj), Tulio de Melo (???, inj), Mendesh (???, inj), Beria (defender, inj), Debuchi (defender, resting), Balmont (mid-field, resting)
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Oh, and Paulou midfielder from the startup line is injured for BATE. He was the best partner for Hleb, and it will probably mean that again Bressan (he is in a good shape) will be in starting lineup together with Hleb. It will mean less balanced team with more preferences to attack than usual for them.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) yes, it will be second or even third squad. it's around 0 temperature in Belarus, snow, horrible pitches and they won't risk injuries of key players in such context. So, a chance for some young players will be given. The funny thing is that they still can win it, but sure there will around 0 motivation and effort from BATE, may be except back-ups who may want to impress the coach.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) yes, that's why it's bit tricky. Lille is horrific, Bate will be without motivation, pitch and weather will be for Bate. I think both teams should score. It's interesting to get any insight about Lille will they even try to bounce back after previous game? If they get their motivation they can win this one.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) oh, and 10 points won't be enough in most cases. - It will be enough only if Valencia wins vs Bayern and BATE is kicking out Bayern out of second spot in direct confrontation - it won't happen. - If Valencia and Bayern draw - both will have 10 points before the last game and Valencia has better head-to-head vs Bate even if they manage to lose against Lille. - If Bayern wins vs Valencia, then it's even worse, it may be not enough to get even 12 points for Bate (as Valencia will probably win vs Lille) and it will be +/- for goal difference between all three. So even miracle win for Bate for both games may be not enough.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) They'll just lose to Bayern. I'm judging on their previous experience, they won't be motivated here enough plus will be out of shape due to the end of season in Belarus. Even BATE's management told earlier that they are not ready for ECL playoff and are happy with EL playoff, they prefer gradual development strategy, step-by-step. Plus this winter will be a bit tricky, there is not stadium in Belarus to play any play off match this season. Minsk Dynamo will be closed for full reconstruction, new home stadium in Borisov will be completed only on summer. Basically they have no place to play, may be for EL playoff UEFA will make an exception for Homel stadium, in other cases they'll have to go to Moscow or Kiev. And Hleb's contract is till January only. So, they'll have a lot of problems to get prepared for any playoff game on winter, and got very limited resources. So I guess they won't push to hard this year in order not to compromise the whole next season cycle.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) just to support my opinion that BATE won't fight from now on. EL playoff starts before regular season start in Belarus, plus Hleb most likely will leave the team on January. That means BATE need to do an early circle to get prepared to early next season start, so they should rest from now on. Their management is very practical and can easily give up all the rest of games this year if they think it makes sense (not sure do they really need prize money from Lille game). Plus vs Lille they'll be playing in Minsk, not a home crowd and nobody is going blame them for losing all games. It depends how bad is Lille right now. May be both team score is a good call. BATE's defence is prone to choke, they cannot maintain concentration for the full time.
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Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) well, BATE took their 7th domestic title in a row this weekend. they have no issues with the lineup. However, they may be out of shape already due to almost end of the regular season. But what is even more important, based on previous years experience, after winning domestic title (they usually do it well in advance) they just stop playing any football till next season. Last two games in euro cups in group stages were a crap quality from them usually. If we look to ECL group situation, they have no realistic hope for ECL playoff and they practically guaranteed EL playoff. So, they'll be playing against Lille just for prize money and rating, not a hell of motivation. May be, just may be this year coaches change their psychology and they are not so burnt out due to the squad depth, but won't put much hope in that. As for pitch, it will be bad. Weather will be horrific this time of year in Minsk, so it'll be very hard for Lille to adapt. Saying all this... HW odds are not so good. May be draw is ok. It's not clear to what extent is Lille demoralized and if they really want to bounce back from previous game vs Bayern.
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Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) no, I frankly got impression they gave up, I've seen it so often from them if they think there is no realistic shot or no real need - they just don't fight. And they are small team, without fighting even the lucky first goal won't help them. Plus they won't be in such a good shape as in previous game, even though they rested all key people. Paulow - a very good partner for Hleb will be missing the game. And finnaly, they achieved everything they dreamt already for this season. So, the only shot here for them if they are fooling everyone around with interviews and really think they can and want to win this one + they are lucky to score the first goal + Valencia is a bit off top (e.g. Soldado may be rested due to 1 yellow card + death of his grandfather). Too many conditions, I don't believe in this.
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Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
So' date='i can understand if you have sympathy for club such as BATE,i do too,but i couldnt understand yours explanations that Valencia dont need victory tonight,if we know the schedule Valencia will in next match host Bayern and than will play away against Lille,so how could you say they dont need win,draw is enough,so i will bet on win HT win FT + over 2,5 odd 2.40.GOOD LUCK!!![/quote'] Well BATE will loose vs Bayern, and it means it will be safe for Valencia to take just 4 points from this opposition. However, I changed my mind, it should be a relatevly easy victory for Valencia. Interviews from BATE side showing they might gave up already and looking for EL; and they are well known that won't really fight if they don't need to. Plus Valencia really strong at home. So, I was wrong, and your advice is good. -
Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000344/match=2009407/postmatch/report/index.html - here is the first game against Vardar. Bressan, Baha and obviously Hleb are not there. However, Polyakov really departed only after that game and it could cause a confusion. Against Vardar they were effectively playing without regular mid field.
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Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) no no, they missed them for both games against Vardar and first leg against Debrecen. Hleb and Vasiluyk were signed up just vefore Debrecen, he wasn't playing against Vardar at all. Team that played against Vardar is just a second squad in comparison to current Bate starting line-up. I still think Valencia's victory was not easy and it could easily turn to Bayern's scenario as game progressed. Sure, Valencia is a clear favourite, but just thinking that odds are not right for them.
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Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
Ok, looks you don't know why BATE was weak first qualifying rounds. Let me provide you a context. 1) Olympic games. 5 players from BATE where with Belarusian squad there. - Bressan - mid-fielder, playmaker from the starting line-up (at that point). Bressan was the best player in the team. - Baha - mid-fielder, important player from the starting line-up. - Polyakov - defender from the starting line-up. - Hutor - second goalkeeper, he was the first one previous year. There was a local "conspiracy theory" that BATE deliberately put him on bench this season and signed-up a new first goalkeeper, as goalkeepers Hutor and Scherbakov were going to Olympics and team wanted to have any kind of goalkeeper with play practice during CL qualifications. - Scherbakov - third goalkeeper. All they returned just before return leg in Hungary and were primary reason of good team performance shown. 2) Because of Olympic games, BATE had to sign up Hleb (to substitute a missing Bressan, for this season only) and Vasiluk (for attack depth) just before games with Debrecen. It took some time for them to blend in and help the team. As appeared, Hleb fully replaced Bressan in the starting line (except few domestic games) and proved to be a great acquisition. However, he'll leave the team this winter, I guess. 3) There was a scary performance in the last qualifying round in Israel - but need to keep in mind 2:0 advantage they had after the first leg, and extreme weather conditions, but still they got enough experience to survive there.Do not over-estimate BATE as I said last time before Valencia trashed them in Belarus. Don't forget that this team barely passed the first qualifying round against Vardar Skopije. They were severely under-estimated by Bayern. They won't get such treatment from Valencia for sure. It will be a sure and easy win for the hosts. -
Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
they did beat BATE 3:0, but it was just the question who was going to score first. Lucky penalty + lucky perfect shot on counter attack just demolished BATE, they are small team and couldn't cope with such situation. BATE delivers top game against strong team only when they are parking a bus in defense+ use fast counters. And they'll defenitely do it in Valencia, so if they catch Valencia on counter and first to score - it'll be a very different story. Plus Valencia doesn't really need a victory here, draw will be ok, plus they might be overconfident after such easy victory. So again, 1.29 is too low odds for Valencia.Didnt Valencia end atletico madrid's record winning streak this week? And at home arent they a force to be reckon with? Not to forget, they did beat BATE away 3:0. not sure i would back valencia @1.29, but wont be opposing either. -
Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I'll go for double chance for BATE at 3.5. Odds for Valencia are crap. If BATE scores first, it'll be hard for Valencia to win. Domestic loss to Naftan doesn't show anything, it was a second squad + very specific context when it was the best time to lose.
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Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) well, as insight from BATE side - they don't have any problems right now and are functionally 100% ready. Due to the later season they might be a bit off peak in comparison to previous ECL game, but they rested key players, they've got amazing coach staff and specialists from Spain to keep phisycal fit. The pitch and weather will be relatively bad and will be demanding for physical conditions, and environment is well familiar to them. What is really a risk for them to underperform is psychology, they are well expreriences squad (5 group stages in eurocup in a row, including 1 EL playoff), but this is a new situation of CL success. I can only hope that good coach will help to clear them minds, but it's a risk. BATE shouldn't show more they showed against Bayern, may be even bit less. It really depends on Valencia performance. As I said, set pieces may be a difference maker here in Valencia favour. BTS looks the best for me also.
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Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Valencia should score, BATE's defense cannot keep the focus during the whole match and chokes (esp Polyakov and Likhtarovitch). Plus Valencia is good at set pieces and this will be a difference maker - BATE's corners count for the first two matches is something like 1 vs 24. BATE was very lucky Bayern sucks at set pieces. ps. Valencia won't check the pitch until before match start. Ok, that's a bit alarming. Are they so confident or don't care/underestimate? The pitch will be not the one they are used to, far away from that. I cannot even say if both of team score.
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Re: Group F > Oct 23 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) - BATE lost 0:1 recently in a 1/8 domestic cup game against weak opponent (playing shorthanded most part of the game). However, it was their second/third squad, at the same days there were games of National Belarus team and 9 players from BATE were part of that. - The latest win 2:1 vs Slavia was alarming, they easily led game the first 3/4 of match, but at the last 1/4 almost choked. - National Belarus team lost without any resistance to Spain 0:4, the only good player from Belarus/Bate side was Hleb. However, they won vs Georgia 2:0 relatively easy with more players from BATE in the starting line-up (7!). - BATE has horrible stats vs teams from Spain. So, Valencia will be very difficult for them. - BATE might be out of their peak sligtly right now, but they will still bring everything they got to this game, it's their primary goal and they are resting key players for this match. They are team with tiny budget (8-10 mil) and ECL is their primary source of income. - Valencia will be highly motivated, they won't underestimate BATE, they have a good defense in comparison what Lille and Bayern showed in the first two games, they have a good record vs smaller teams. - Weather: Oct 24, Minsk http://meteo.by/en/minsk/ - +9C expected in the evening, 80% humidity, minor rains in the first half of the day. So the pitch will be relatively bad, and it will be cold and windy. So, looks like Valencia is a favourite, but it will be tough one, far away from the cake work.
Group F > Dec 5th (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group F > Dec 5th (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) BATE will be slaughtered, they have no motivation for this match, they have no fuel left, their season is over and they are looking forward early winter start for EL playoff. How bad will be this defeat depends on Bayern only, according to some interviews by their players, their coach told them to destroy BATE in this game. But odds are too low, it's CL after all and Bayern players might take a day off.