Broken
-
Posts
40 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Broken
-
-
Re: Best bet of the day 20th July Top punting today lads! Just want to say thanks to all for conributing especially the shouts for Albacocca and Any Given Moment, I made a huge 80 points profit by putting both of those in an accy, helped by Albacocca drifting to 6's just before the start. Honourable mention to andyjkmak for Radetsky sky, got on that one too although a pity the returns were cut. So thanks for the tips- its very much appreciated! :clap :nana :beer
-
Re: Semi Final 2 - Russia v Spain
Exactly the way I am looking at it. Both sides are well known for their attacking and personally I dont think there is that much between either side. The worry is a certain amount of reverse psychology and both sides not wanting to risk defeat so playing cautiously, against their nature. Provided they can risk defeat by trying to win (which Spain certainly did against Italy) and provided we get an early goal then I can see it being 2-2 in the closing stages with a late goal deciding it. However as there has not been a 2-2 yet Im going to cover that as well, just in case neither side can break the deadlock in the 90. Might also throw down a quid on pavlyuchenko 3-2 & 2-2 scorecast and a quid each on Russia and Spain to win on pens.I've been really impressed with Senna, had not seen much of him before the Euro's but he holds their midfield together well. Spain were never going to rack up a cricket score against the boring Italians but I think we should be in for a goal fest tonight. Spain are not infallible at the back, they have just been up against some poor attacking teams, and Russia proved in the first group game that defence isn't their strong point. The Spanish midfield will get a good line of balls up to Villa and Torres and they must fancy their chances of bagging at least two. Ashavin looks a quality player and has really lit up the Russian side since returning from suspension. With him back in their side, they should build upon the one goal they scored against the Spaniards last time. I'm backing three correct scores, Spain 3 - 2 Russia (28/1) Spain 2 - 2 Russia (18/1) Spain 2 - 3 Russia (40/1) Also, couldn't resist a pop at the Arshavin first scorer/ 3-2 Russia scorecast at 250/1. -
Re: Spain v Italy - 4th Quarter Final
Well done mate! I was edging towards backing Italy then I read your post and it totally changed my mind, so not only did you save me from backing Italy you made me some money by backing both sides on pens as well as draw f/t and draw ht/ft. Theres nothing better than a game going to pens and no matter who wins- you win!! Many thanks! :cheersI can see a decent chance of pens in this match. The match is going to very tense. Betfair Spain to win on pens [email protected] B365 Italy to win on pens [email protected] GL all :) -
Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final
The 3rd goal was definitely a foul but it makes no difference really. The German tactics were spot on and there was only one winner in that game as soon as Schweinsteiger scored. Portugal wouldnt have won if Scolaris mum had been the ref! :lol Germany are peaking at just the right time. As they usually do!Far too many defensive mistakes in the game and that German 3rd goal (clearly a foul on Paulo Ferreira not called by the linesman or the ref...the usual in this tournament against Portugal since the 1st game...) surely killed the game when Portugal was pressuring for the draw and Germany was playing no different from Sweden last Saturday againt Spain (all men behind the ball line and only coming forward for set pieces). Still, not a bad day at all as the over bet (had more units on that bet) covered the other one. JC -
Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final
That really annoys me! Its not like they ever mention Wales or Scotland to give it some balance, its all England this and England that, most usually on ITV. Still, not being funny but I'd rather put up with that than actually have England there and have to have all the incessant media hype and flags on cars etc. Its nice to have a tournament off once every decade! Anyway well done Germany. 41-1 to 1 for Germany to win 3-2! Never write off the Germans.How many times have they mentioned england in this game?? come back motson, all is forgiven!! cant believe when germany scored the 1st, very well orchestrated team goal, they immediately compared it to an england goal. I can quite comfortabley say if all they have to talk about in this time is a completely unrelated knocked-out country, then I know far more about these 2 teams and football in general than these muppets. And both my bets look won (see GH section) :hope -
Re: Austria v Germany (Monday)
To be honest though the rest werent much better! What was Neuville doing at the end? Easy chance to play a team mate in and he spoons it wide. :$ Germany should have had a hatful on the break against Austria, that they only ended up with one shows what a poor side they are.unfortunately for us, he was.:sad:(:$ i still cant believe how he managed to scoop in up in the air from 2yards out, it did bobble slightly, so could have excused him slightly if he'd shinned it? 28 goals, what on the playstation?:lol -
Re: Scorecast betting query
Cheers mate!If its a scorecast bet and your player doesnt start or isnt on the pitch when the first goal is scored it goes onto the correct scrore. So effectivly they class it as a non-Runner:ok -
I had a punt for modest stakes on a scorecast in the Czech match last night on Baros to score first and the Czechs to win 2-1 with bet365. Baros obviously didnt get on the pitch so I was wondering if I would get my stake back and it seems I havent. Bet365 have an information marker next to the first goalscorer market stating that if the selected goalscorer doesnt play or takes to the field after the first goal then the stake is refunded. Sorry if this is a daft question but how is it different for a scorecast? Its still a bet that from the time of placing I had no chance of winning, effectively just giving my money away? Im not concerned about the amount, thankfully it was minimal, just more concerned with the principle. Is this the usual procedure with a scorecast? :\
-
Re: Turkey v Czech Rep (Sunday) Cant believe how that one finished!! :loon Have to say I feel for the Czechs- they tried to win in the first half, Turkey seemed content with penalties from the start and I thought it was shocking how often their players stayed down disrupting the Czechs attacks. This of course in contrast to the 2nd half when Turkish players were very quickly up on their feet at all times! Also what was the keeper doing? Ridiculous behaviour at the end, total madness. Anyways, well done to anyone on the 3-2 with Koller to score first- I wish I was! Odds on that must have been in the hundreds :lol
-
Re: Group A
Hey Broken' date=' it is possible to cover the bet if you bet on either the straight forecast or Turkey to qualify on betfair currently at 2.48 (6/4). I've just decided to take the rest of 2.5 that was available as a cover but will still be hoping the Czechs make it through as i'd still get a profit, whereas if Turkey go through i'll only make a slight profit. GL in whatever you decide to do, but it all has to do with what is at stake for you personally from your stake. :ok[/quote'] Cheers mate, I would have taken you up on that Betfair tip if the unthinkable hadnt happened and Germany blew it against the Croats! As its a treble accy with no full cover, nevermind what happens in the Czech match it looks doomed to fail as I cannot see Poland playing to win against Croatia in the hope that Austria beat Germany. In other words I think the Germany 1st, Croatia 2nd combo is now out the window :cry I find it a bit disappointing from a punters point of view that Beenhakker has also told the press that he believes qualification is beyond them, so my bet looks dead in the water now. GL with your forecast :hope I hope you werent also backing the 1: Ger, 2: Cro forecast as well! -
Re: Group A
I'm just going to let this one go and hope that Czech Rep either win in normal time or on penalties. The straight forecast in this group isn't one of my main bets' date=' my main one for this group was Portugal to win the group. Depending on how much you have on the only way you can really try to cover it is backing the forecast with Turkey (if you think Czech will get beat) but IMO that would take most of your profit away. With the situation being that if Czech lose they're out and if they draw they can still go out it is difficult to cover. I think Czech are the better side so i'd suggest to just hope Czech do us a favour and win.:hope[/quote'] Yeah agree with that, I was only looking to lay-off if it got as far as the last set og games in Group D. Its hard to cover when there is the additional outcome of a loss on penalties. Think I will just let it slide and hope the Czechs can do the business, not confident though :hope -
Re: Group A So with that in mind how do you all reckon its gonna go? Give me some hope here! The odds on the draw are tumbling and I have a feeling the Turks are gonna win it on pens. The Czechs have been disappointing so far, Baros and Koller may still be there but the other players from their generation who have retired have taken with them the spark that made the Czechs such a great footballing side. Turkey will be on a high, especially with the manner in which they snatched a win from a draw. Personally, Im praying for more rain- lots of it! :lol Amazing to think that that Quaresma goal that put a bit of icing on Portugals result is the difference between the Czechs just needing a draw.
-
Re: Group A Oh arse! According to the link below, co-efficient is only used if its a tie if the teams played each other earlier, in this case as the match will have just finished they will be in a position to take penalties and as result it will be decided that way. I cant say Ive ever seen a group decided by penalty shoot-out, pretty bizarre really. I hope the Czechs can do it in the 90 minutes but all of a sudden Im not so confident! http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf
-
Re: Group A
Aah right! I took points divided by games for wc'06 and euro'08 qualifying and added them together. Either way, the Czechs are up there and thats the main thing!That is a different coeffiecient total to the one that i've been looking at, here's the one i've used: - Ranking and coefficients for all 16 teams when applying criteria (f) : 1. 2.417 - Holland 2. 2.409 - Croatia 3. 2.364 - Italy 4. 2.333 - Czech Republic 5. 2.273 - Sweden 6. 2.250 - Romania 6. 2.250 - Germany 8. 2.192 - Portugal 9. 2.182 - Spain 10. 2.167 - Greece 10. 2.167 - Poland 12. 2.091 - France 13. 1.958 - Russia 13. 1.958 - Turkey 15. 1.800 - Switzerland 16. 1.500 - Austria -
Re: Group A
Well Im not being funny mate but I assume you got those rules from an official uefa source, providing you did then talk of penalties is a load of crap! Im just concerned there has been no official confirmation yet, would have thought the bbc would have said something when they showed the group table. Will feel safer when its in black and white, if only to put us punters out of our misery!It definitely wont go to penalties after the group game if it is a joke. Someone is having a laugh with the Turkish public if that is what was said. :loon -
Re: Group A
Ive never heard of anything ever going to penalties in a group game! Its always decided off the pitch, even if it comes down to naff things like fair play. Those rules explain it clearly so either those rules are not from UEFA or someones having a laugh and winding the Turks up.That was what I'd known but Turkish tvs seems to be confident about it would go to penalties in case of draw...(Turkish player Mehmet Topal was just saying the same thing on Tv two minutes ago) Trying to get the details...:hope -
Re: Group A
You and me both mate- except mine is in a treble with: 1st Ger 2nd Cro; 1st Spa 2nd Swe; £8.50 @ 69-1 so its very, very, very, very important to me that the Czechs go through lol! :hope For what its worth, the co-efficients: Turkey: 3.91 Czechs: 5Yeah sorry forgot to put the coefficient list to show that Czech Rep are above Turkey. As soon as the game was over i went checking because i have the straight forecast with Czech Rep to come second behind Portugal. :hope -
Re: Group A Just checked and the co-efficient is massively in the Czech's favour so a draw will take them through. whether thats a good thing remains to be seen!
-
Re: Group A
I hope you are right, I have the Czechs to finish second in the group! I guess if you follow those rules to the letter then point (f) has to give it to the Czechs in the event of a draw.Portugal have won the group but who goes through if Czech Rep and Turkey draw? They are both on the same points and both scored two and conceded three. I have found a tie breaker rules for the competition and think that it may go down to coefficients where Czech Rep would go through. Am i right that it would go down to point f )? TIE-BREAKER RULES : If two or more teams finish equal on points after all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking : (a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question. (b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). © Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). (d) Goal difference in all the group matches. (e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches. (f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played). (g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament). (h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee. There is no need to apply criteria (g) & (h) at this year’s championship because the only teams with equal coefficient under criteria (f) are teams of Romania & Germany (ranked 5.), Greece & Poland (ranked 10.) and then Russia & Turkey (ranked 13.) - teams that were drawn into different groups anyway. -
Re: bets for euro 2008 Ive gone for a group forecast treble: Group A: 1st Portugal, 2nd Czech Rep Group B: 1st Germany, 2nd Croatia Group D: 1st Spain, 2nd Sweden Total odds are 78-1 with Bet365, £3.75 staked To say that group C was too tough to call is putting it mildly, the odds were ridiculous enough without factoring that group in!
-
Re: Fleet's Football Trebles 2007-08 Damn Salisbury and their inablility to get a comfortable win. Dont matter though, got there in the end! Well done Fleet! :clap:loon:nana
-
Re: Broken's £10 to £?,???,??? thread
Well, made it to bet 3 but no further :$. Will start another attempt either midweek or next weekend after making some adjustments, one of which being that from now on I will only back the home side.Stage 1 Bet 3: Osasuna 0 v Barcelona (1.61) 0 :wall £27.67 staked at 1.61 (Bet365) On paper this one seems like a no-brainer. However taking form into account and that Barcelona's players have been involved in internationals, Osasuna could make a mockery of Barca's odds. Heres hoping that the extra quality of Henry and Ronaldinho can make the difference. :hope -
Re: Broken's £10 to £?,???,??? thread Stage 1 Bet 3: Osasuna v Barcelona (1.61) £27.67 staked at 1.61 (Bet365) On paper this one seems like a no-brainer. However taking form into account and that Barcelona's players have been involved in internationals, Osasuna could make a mockery of Barca's odds. Heres hoping that the extra quality of Henry and Ronaldinho can make the difference. :hope
-
Re: Broken's £10 to £?,???,??? thread
Two bets in now and still going! Total pot: £27.67 Profit: £17.67 Banked: £0 Next bet likely to be Barcelona @ 1.61 away to Osasuna.Fair shout mate, even an odds on favourite gives no guarantee of winning. Stage 1 Bet 2: Dundee United (1.66) 2 v St Mirren 0 :clap £16.60 staked at 1.66 (Bet365) This could prove to be a tricky one. Dundee are in good form but St Mirren have not done badly in recent weeks away from home, albeit against sides at the bottom of the table. :hope
"Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (95 picks +37% yield) Yeah, good profit from today with one still to play. Thanks for the tips- please keep em coming :clap