Dink
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Posts posted by Dink
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Re: Sunderland v Queens Park Rangers > Tuesday Nov 27th Bosingwa not playing -> QPR wins.
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Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP) The biggest questions for Milan - Malaga game is: can Malaga score on San Siro? I believe they can't and I find great value in odds offered for Milan to win to nil.
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Re: Group D > Nov 6 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I think that City's price is a gift. I expected to see them around 1.3 - 1.35. Ajax is terribad on travels. Still, I don't like the fact that Milner is back. That player might be good for the standards of English national team but he is way below the class that City needs.
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Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP) Malaga has no luxury to play mixed squads. Players have passed the worst part, first 3 games in CL that earned them maximum of 9 points. They are tired and they need a break. They are fully aware that by beating Anderlecht at home they will be in second phase. There is absolutely no need to die on field against Milan who looks pretty solid even since that loss to Inter. In my opinion, bookies are holding Milan near evens for reason. It is just a trick. If Milan dropped to 1.75, not many of you would consider backing Malaga with double chance. Milan around 2 is generous. I believe that price will drop to 1.85 during the day.
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Re: Group C > Nov 6 (Malaga, AC Milan, Anderlecht, Zenit SP) Personally, I don't think that Hulk got injured. I was watching the game and he stepped down to take a corner, looked on his bench and suddenly fell down, like he got punched in the leg. Minutes after that Denisov came in and of course, Zenit won 2/1 with 94th minute goal because nobody from Krylia Sovetov wanted to jump and stop the scorer. Hulk's transfer made a great impact on the team. It is obvious that nobody in the team likes him. Fans started to dislike him as well because Zenit is not playing the way they are expercting in CL. I believe that Hulk was put aside for the next two games for reasons. Everyone who watched Zenit - Anderlecht game knows that Anderlecht was 5 times better team on the field and that Zenit, mostly because of Hulk issues. There one was funny situation in situation in game where Hulk was raising his arms to Kerzhakov to pass him the ball and Kerzhakov ignored it. Two minutes after that Hulk was running forward and Kerzhakov was completely alone on the left side, raising his hands and yelling on Hulk to pass him the ball. Hulk of course ignored the request and lost the ball afterwards. English speakerman said something like : Kerzhakov is asking to the ball but no way that he is going to get it in a million years. So Zenit is fixing their problem by taking Hulk out of the squad for these two important weeks. We wont see the same Zenit that played against Anderlecht and won, God knows how, with 1-0 score. This team will be compact and eager to prove that they can do well without Hulk. Great motivation for Slovenian people who would die on field only to prove that they are right. On the other side we have Anderlecht who is playing better in domestic league. They are yet to score in CL and they have the power to do it. As well as I wrote in EPL section 2 days ago for Liverpool - Newcastle game, BTS is the safest bet for this match that I can think of.
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Re: Championship 6th November Be careful guys. It is CL night :)
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Re: France - Ligue 2 (2-5 November)
Shared your thoughts of Clermong - Guingamp and followed you on Carquefou. Thanks for that amazing info What do you think of Caen - Le Havre today? I heard Le Havres fans show their dissapointements to the team last week when they drew with Nimes at home. Caen managed to win 2 - 0 with 10 men on the field and if they win this one they will be in the very top of the table. Still, what bugs me is that I can't find info anywhere why Caen was so weak at home this season. Why are they in trouble winning at home and doing it away?I was right. They have scored each other already in the first half (Clermont - Guingamp). Piece of cake! :) -
Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November My local bookie offers over 2.5 goals for 1.55 and Saints to score 1 or more is 1.48 so I am going with that second option for a small accumulator today mostly because if they don't get a decent result here, manager is going to get sacked.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4
Where did you get 1.9 for under 3.5 goals?Roma v Palermo Just a quickie 1.9 for the under 3.5 goals in the game. Palermo have finally woken up. last 4 away games 0-0 1-1 1-0 1-0 so over 3.5 should be very tough. Nice odds, Neil. -
Re: WBA v Southampton > Monday 5th November This is a getaway game for me. I don't see the quality in WBA to comeback from the last week shock against Citizens nor I see Southampton being strong enough to make a surprise. Anything can happen as we saw last week. On the other hand you can't be sure that these sides are going to score over or under amount of goals. I don't know what would be a good and reliable bet in this match.
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Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November I don't understand this Newcastle mania. Seems like Liverpool killed many of your bets in the past and you guys are taking this too close to your hearts. In their past few games, Liverpool looked rather solid and organized and I can't say that for Newcastle. Bookies did an excellent job once again. They know that the market will be split into those who will take Liverpool on -1 to get some value around 2.4 and those who will pick Newcastle on +1 to get something near those odds. So bookies are hoping for a draw or Liverpool to get this by exactly one goal. News from Newcastle were going in some stupid way. I read something like Ba wont feature and things like that. Same thing is happening over and over again. In my opinion this was meant to "convince" the betting community that Newcastle will have trouble scoring goals. In this scenario some people would also find a value in unders or Liverpool to win to nil. I will do a small bet on this one because I'd like to watch the game and enjoy it because I believe that Liverpool is getting better with each new week. From the news and the media atmosphere I can say that BTTS is the safest bet. Liverpool to win by exactly 1 goal is highly possible and correct score of 2/1 looks good for a unit.
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Re: QPR v Reading > Sunday 4th November When you are going to climb you have to start from the bottom. QPR with no second doubts.
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Re: Serie A > Nov 3-4 Can we get some more thoughts of Napoli's next game? Last week I watched unlucky Lazio dominating against Torino for the entire second half. Honestly, mixture of luck and occasions brought Torino to this amazing away performance but I seriously wonder if they can hold against a team who failed to take points last week and who is tending to play CL next year. Is it possible that Cavani deserves so much credit and that without him Napoli is unable to take points against an underish side like Torino? Will Cerci, as he is the only player who can put pressure in the middle field, be able to create chances against strong-at-home Napoli which will result in a goal for Torino? Or better, can Torino's shaky defence hold against Napoli for the entire game? I wrote shaky because no matter how solid their results are, I've watched their recent games and I have to say that it is complete miracle that they concede more goals. For example in their last game against Lazio, they could lose 5 to 1 and nobody would be surprised because Lazio dominated them for the entire second half. Now some of you might be confused and say that Napoli will be one eyed on their 8th November game in Europa League against Dnipro at home and that Mazzarri will rest some players. This is not the case because it is widely known that Napoli has two teams, where one plays domestic and the other one international. There is no imperative of winning against Dnipro because PSV failed to win at home against AIK and will probably fail to win against that same team away. Pretty tricky group and even more tricky if you deeply read the Mazzarri's interview, day before Napoli's EL game against Dnipro, in which he said that Napoli is completely out if they lose that game. Well that proved to be wrong because they lost. But hey! PSV lost as well. These "surprises" give them numerous possibilities however. And this is what confuses me. Napoli, like most of Italian teams, is inconsistent. Not because they lack of quality to win the games, but because the football in Italy, and this was proven in federal courts, is not only a sport. I would honestly like to hear an opinion of a punter who doesn't make his investments based on statistics and weather conditions because I am very confused about this game.
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Re: France - Ligue 2 (2-5 November) Clermont - Guingamp? Tight game or not?
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Re: France - Ligue 2 (2-5 November)
I just checked that and by looking and league forms and stuff I can't believe that they've been put on 1.9. Based on how they perform and how Quevilly does they should be near 1.55-1.7. The biggest thing that bugs me is why are they so high. Do you have any knowledge of why is this happening?There is no topic about French Ligue Nationale, so, I want to share with my thoughts here. Look carefully on a clash between Carquefou (12th) and Quevilly (20th). Unfortunately, the price for home win just dropped from 2.0 to 1.9. I think there is a brilliant chance for home team to jump higher and to be closer to the promotion zone. Carquefou is quite strong side at home, usually scoring 1 or 2 goals. Quevilly used to concede one goal in away game and there is a problem with their attacking line - just 2 goals in 5 matches. Carquefou has a good striker Christian Becamenga who, to my mind, will bring some surprises to away's defense. Summary: Carquefou win for 1.9 at bet365. -
Re: My NBA topic Sorry I didn't understand that post. Can you please, precisely, write what you are going to bet on?
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Re: Everton v Liverpool > Oct 28
Who wrote this preview? It is so bad and useless.Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/everton...re-at-goodison -
Re: Everton v Liverpool > Oct 28 Expected Liverpool to be around 2.4. I've been watching them lately and I don't see how Everton who is in terribad form atm can win in this match. Still, from the past experiences with Liverpool's bad luck I will not go for straight win but I'll back them not to lose this one.
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Re: Group C > 25 October (AEL Limassol, Borussia M, Fenerbahce, Marseille) It the games like this the following info should be taken into consideration. • This is FARE Action Week, with UEFA giving its support to Europe's biggest anti-discrimination campaign. There are activities before each UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League game which will be witnessed by thousands of fans in the stadiums and millions on television. A 30-second RESPECT TV spot and announcements over stadium loudspeakers will encourage fans to join the UEFA family in its call to unite against racism in football. Every team will be accompanied on to the pitch by children wearing Unite Against Racism T-shirts and captains will be asked to wear a Unite Against Racism armband. I like Deniz's post. Still, I laugh whenever I see someone just saying that there is a "value" in something that totally differs from the well written game preview like Deniz's is.
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Re: Group A > 25 October (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys)
I do agree about the starting line-ups part. But my fellow punters, please, do not fall into the trap that English Premier League media made season ago and it is promoting even today. They called Europa league rubbish and useless for their teams and fans accepted that opinion. That opinion, obviously, expanded over whole Europe and now it looks like this competition is great chance for teams from mediocre leagues because teams from strong leagues are taking this competition lightly. This is not the truth it is just confusing you when you are placing your bet. Resting players, big derbies ahead of us, bla bla bla. So I agree on the part of starting line-ups. Udine might think that they have too much for YB with any player team on pitch. And this might be the chance for those who haven't played much during the start of the season to take part in some international game. It is better for their CV later when they are going to get sold because they managed to do nothing for the club. That is why managers from stronger leagues are using so called "second hand" players in international games of this type. Not because they "care" about resting certain player. Barcelona never rests Messi nor Real rests Ronaldo.Young Boys V Udinese For those taking udinese against young boys, I suggest to wait until the starting line-up is announced. But still seems Udinese should win this. My only concern was whether they were taking this away tie seriously since they are sitting at the top of the group. But it seems they are and Anzhi and Liverpool are only going to be breathing down their neck. But personally I would wait till the starting 11 is announced as the young boys though leak a lot of goals, did held anzhi till two late eto goals and though were beaten big by a liverpool B team, that B team had decent form as it went on to beat west brom away. Just cautious since a draw could play a big part like it was in the anzhi game initially. -
Re: Group A > 25 October (Anzhi, Liverpool. Udinese, Young Boys)
Yea involved. Involved from the bench. Too much respect for the Liverpool from our fellow bookies.Steven Gerrard and Luis Suarez both set to be involved -
Re: Npower Football League Championship > 23rd / 24th October It is a CL night folks, there will be plenty of "surprises" in Championship tonight.
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Re: Group H > Oct 23 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd)
Good post I just expected that you would bet on Man Utd to win the 2nd half, now I am bit confused. Why would you go for Man Utd ht/ft?Probably doing some changes here but he won't take them not serious. He will go for the 3 points that's for sure. SAF wants United to qualify as soon as possible. A win here would do them a great part in achieving the next round. He is absolutely aware of the Galatasray rematch knowing this will be hell. So no experiments here. Probably 2-3 changes as he always rotates as United have a big squad. I can see Hernandez, Kagawa and Cleverley comming in. Also Anderson could start as he was good against Stoke when he came on for Scholes. Young and Smalling could come back too after being out a couple of months (each of them, Young was out for 2 months and Smalling since may). A couple of possibilities for Ferguson here. Either he sticks to his old formation with 2 wingers or opt to use the "diamond formation". I see both Cleverley and Anderson starting here, Kagawa as well. I expect a strong team, with Ferguson having the Chelsea game in mind, he might want to finish this rather sooner than later. He cold opt to start with Hernandez and Welbeck up front placing van Persie and Rooney on the bench with Young, Cleverley and Kagawa all possible to play as an offensive midfielder. My bet would be United to win the first half. Or wait to see the line-up. -
Re: Wannabe punter
Unlucky San Caetano who dominated most of the game, head the lead twice and amazing chance to score in last minute. Gotta say that there was an obvious penalty for San Caetano which the referee didn't deliver. Barueri's defender played with his hands to protect the ball coming in the hot area but referee only delivered a corner. Too bad that San Caetano missed the points in the game versus a team who is clearly going to play in lower division after this season. To make things worse for them, they are losing the step with other top teams who are hoping to get promoted. -1 unit after this treble Current bank 53.6 units, again a typing mistake in the post above :D20th October 2012 Current bank 55.6 units Arsenal S. - Colon ;over 1.5 goals@1.35 FT 2-0 WIN Gremio Barueri - Sao Caetano ;2 @1.6 FT 2-2 LOSS ASA - Ceara ;DNB 1 @ 1.42 FT 3-0 WIN Total odds of 3.07, 3 fold bet, stake 1 unit
La Liga > 7th December - 10th December
in Spanish Football Predictions
Posted
Re: La Liga > 7th December - 10th December Valencia is in deep financial problems for the past 3 years. Their focus is on CL because of the prize pool and open market where they can sell players. In BBVA they are "underperforming" for reason. I watched 60 % of their league games and it is always funny to see how demoralized they play against the teams that they would easily beat with handicap. My opinion is that in 90% league games this season they will draw or lose when they are away. On the other hand, picking them when they are at home against the teams that stand for the strong ones they will do the job. Main reason for this - financial problems.