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huck3

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Posts posted by huck3

  1. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th

    If you have unrestricted account with Marathonbet (the Russian bookie)' date=' I suggest taking the offer on [b']-2.5 Romania against Andorra as soon as possible, because at the moment this price offers huge value which will surely be attacked by bettors in Asia this morning. Although at first sight this looks like a mug bet - Romania is nothing special atm and their attack suffers as the key strikers are not regulars for their teams, while Andorra's defense has tighten lately especially at home. However, here we have a special condition which is very rare in such encounters between decent teams and huge underdogs. Romania needs to score as many goals as possible in order to improve their difference, because they are six goals behind Turkey (level points). Although 6 goals difference seems a lot, Romania plays against Andorra and Estonia at home, which means excellent chance to improve their goal difference. I think this bet needs no more reasoning and explaining. I have watched plenty of such internationals where a minnow nation is involved, and in 90% of the cases the favorite plays in a training tempo with one third of their potential (and nevertheless wins with ease). If it was a normal match, I would have expected Romania to play exactly like this against Andorra and win by 1-2 to nil. That's what happened in Bucuresti - Romania played in a slow training tempo, led by 2:0 by the 90th minute when they got 2 extra goals (not that they were really chasing for them) for a final 4:0 win. Now we got the rare case when the favorite - a decent European team like Romania, will play with nearly 100% of their potential against Andorra. In my view, this means that the chance of covering this -2.5 spread is probably higher than 80-90%, which implies huge value at current odds. It is curious enough that at the moment (17 hours before kick-off) no other bookie besides Marathon have quoted any price on any handicap on this match. This means only one thing - bookies are very confused about determining the correct odds here and prefer to wait for others to quote prices and the market to correct them. To add extra flavor to this bet, Andorra's regular goal-keeper and two regular defenders are missing. Not that it should matter so much - they are all amateurs or semi-amateurs. What will be important here is that the much stronger Romanian will be pushing hard from the first till the last minute to get good scoreline. Romania -2.5 @ 1.72 (Marathon) 10/10
    Andorra will finish last in the group meaning games against them will not count when determining the top 8 2nd place teams.
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