[Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

And bets to look at are: - Over 4.5 bookings (though we shall have to see who is officiating to work out the probability - Team to win the match - Penalty to be awarded / scored / missed during the match - Second half corners / Italy race to 5 or maybe 7 corners

Based on what are you betting on there being a penalty awarded? Neither team plays in the danger zone much. And I don't know know why you would be betting on Italy on a race to corners? Italy doesn't really get to the byline often meaning they don't get many corners, agains't Germany Italy didn't even get 1 corner in the whole match, and secondly odds aren't even good here. I would really suggest people to stay clear of these two bets.

[Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Again, like in Germany vs Spain, I see a match different to what the bookies odds represent. In fact for me Italy are slight favorites to win this. So I see good value here. Italy come into this in great form and playing some great football, also with confidence, experience and great desire and motivation. The problem with Spain is they don't have goals in them and they have really failed to create clear cut chances and I can't see that changing. I think Italy can create chances, its just a matter of putting them away like they did today and keeping things tight in the middle and in defense of course. Its important for us not to forget that Spain has had the best defense in the Euro thus far. They don't give away much. This game has potential to go to overtime and penalties in which case its really a 50/50 as both teams are good in these situations. Odds should be very even in this game and I'm expecting odds to shift a bit the closer we get to the game so I would take Italy now for those who wish to back them. Italy 0.5 @1.8 and Italy to win the cup @2.7 bet365

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Great result!:nana Beautiful high stakes profit here and a lot easier than what I originally thought. Germany very poor, in the moment of truth you just don't find a leader out there in Germany, in Italy you have a lot more. Some basic defensive mistakes from Germany lost them the game. What a game by Italy though, great passing, always dangerous and they deserve to be in the final no doubt about it. On a side note (for Broke) - I think need to calm down a bit if you want to be taken seriously as a punter. You won a bet, I'm glad, but no reason to gloat so much and call for the heads of your supposed "doubters", you also said bet on a 0-0 or 1-1, and less than 4.5 bookings. Neither cam true. You were kind enough to point out how you were right, but haven't mentioned any of these. Anyhow, congrats to all of us who backed Italy to win.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Klose is starting ahead of Gomez tonight, sourced from kicker.de, apart from that both teams are starting with their usual 11. This may go off topic a bit but if Gomez isn't starting in this game, and Klose appears to impress just like last game (Greece) - Who will be top goalscorer? Ronaldo is on 3 he's out, Gomez is on 3 but he may potentially not start another game if Germany are to progress. Is Klose worth backing @ 27? If he manages to score 1 or 2 this game, and then if they progress 1 in the final they'll all be tired on 3 and for the odds it seems worth it. Just need an opinion

After the game agaisn't Grece I was under the impression that Loew would go for Klose. Gomez can be lethal, but I think Loew thinks Germany can play better with Klose, and I think he may be right. Klose gets the best out of others, I think Ozil plays better with him up top than with Gomez for instance. Anyways, on the topic Klose being top scorer, I think there are just too many factors involved that play agains't this happening. He would have to score a goal or two tomorrow, I can't see Germany scoring more than 1 if even, let alone 2. Do you think he will be the one to score the goal or both goals? I can't see it happening no way. Then he would need 1 or 2 in the final, again, I just don't see it happening. Also all of this would be assuming Germany pass progress to the final and score in this game and the final. Which is anything but a sure thing. The odds may look sweet, but I wouldn't take the bet if I were you. Even at 26.0 its not worth it.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I agree with your post Toto, spot on analysis in my eyes. I only disagree with taking Cassano out for Di Natale. Cassano does look off physically and its no doubt after undergoing heart attack and just making it in time for this, but I thought that he has looked good in the first halves of all the games so far and while pundits on TV criticized his performance agains't England, I feel he was the most mobile player in attack, he moved from side to side, he would come in deep and make runs as well and looked very energetic, despite his poor physical form. I think Prandelli has got it spot on with substituting him in the second half though, after the first half Cassano is just too tired and gets lost in the game. Its hard to leave Di Natale out as he is always going to have chances to score, but for me its either Di Natale or Balotelli, both offer a lot so for me either is fine, but I'm 100% sure Balotelli will start. Expect Di Natale in the second half though. I think Italy looked very good with Montolivo which was key in my opinion and should have been playing since the first game. He gave them another outlet in midfield and is going to be key tomorrow.

[Copa Toyota Libertadores > 2012]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores > 2012

Took Corinthians on a 0.5 plus handicap' date=' good value.[/quote'] Bet won 1-1, very contested match. Corinthians did what I thought they would defended very well throughout the whole game and were unlucky to concede from a corner, but then they were lucky to score. Bet won.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 Portugal did not deserve anything, they didn't do enough to deserve passing to the next round, but neither did Spain. The game ended like it should have 0-0, and in the shoot-out with Casillas in goal and much more experienced kickers for Spain you always felt they had a much bigger chance of winning.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Totally agree with Value and Notoriouspunter... (totally disagree with Brooke - no offence intended but every opinion you have had for both Semi's opposes mine!) past fixtures in this situation are useless. Apart from the one game in 2011 you have to go back to 2006 which is utterly meaningless. Similar to todays game (ESP v POR) Italy will be ultra defensive for the 90 mins. If Germany dont score in the 1st 15-20mins I can see them slowing their attack for a period then building the attacking pressure as the game wears on. Italy to me have no potent forward or attack and I believe unless they draw a penalty will not score for the entire 90mins. The question then stands will Germany be able to break down the Italian defence. I think they will with the quality and cohesion the team has and feel the 1.8-1.9 Germany win represents value. 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline probable. Good luck all.

History is never meaningless. You have to take it into account, even if just minimally. Historically German teams have failed to beat Italian teams, Germany has kept its identity throughout the years. Perhaps the Germans don't know how to play agains't Italy's type of game? Maybe tomorrow will be different, but to disregard the history behind these two teams could be criminal. I would at least take it into account before placing my bet, if you feel Germany are worth 1.9 to win the match in 90 minutes based on your analysis take the bet, but keep all the factors that involve this game in mind. I think its more like 50/50 chance of passing to the final for each team. Meanwhile in 90 minutes, I wouldn't give Germany more than 33% chance of winning the match, even if you give them something like 40% it would mean they have 4/10 chance of winning the match. The price for Germany straight up in 90 minutes is 1.95 right now, so there would be no value in that bet.

[Copa Toyota Libertadores > 2012]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores > 2012 Took Corinthians on a 0.5 plus handicap, good value.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27

I think spain was very much fatigued having 2 days less to rest while portugal looked fresher for 90 minutes. Did anyone see the same? I think the rest is really an issue.

I actually thought Portugal looked more tired towards the end, and Spain played their best football at the end of the match and in extra time. Portugal was leaving too much space for the Spanish to play in.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

You just cant ignor the history ive snapped up 3.15 on betfair. to me this match is a coin toss too but the odds on germany vs italy are silly italy could nick this. i wouldnt bet on 90 min i aint a fan of that just italy outright winner!

Betfair wasn't letting me bet high stakes on this match for some reason. Had to go with bet365 yesterday @ 2.9 its gone down to 2.87 now.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I must admit looking at Italy's injury list I may have to reassess my backing of Italy and go for the draw or Germany. Very tough to call, I definitely wouldn't back Germany to the hilt though that's a mistake just like it would have been to back Spain to the hilt today. They were fortunate not to concede in the 90 and fortunate to win the shoot out. I thought they were terrible all over the pitch, only saving grace was their last 10 mins of ET. Portugal matched them easily without a fully fit squad and less good players. They deserved to go through really. Spain once again stumble through another match they were outplayed in. Like their match versus Italy they didn't deserve that but seem to have the luck of champions about them. Will it last?

Latest reports say Chiellini is fit to play, as for De Rossi I think replacing him isn't too much of an issue. Nocerino is a very similar player. My word of advice, is for you to stick with Italy.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I can understand anyone thinking that any side can be knocked out in a cup game by a lesser team (the Champions League is a recent reminder of that) but I'm amazed to hear that there are actually people who believe that Italy are better than Germany:loon I found this particularly amusing I can only think you may have just been released from a long stay in prison and are harping back to the old days when Italy were a good team. The two best teams? Switch on your TV tonight and you will see two better teams than Italy in one go. Germany have won (that's "won", not "managed to scrape a boring draw and hope to go through with a scrappy ET goal or penalties") their last 15 competitive games or something. Italy have managed to win just TWO of their last six - and those were against the absolute shambles from both sides of the Irish border. I see a boring game ahead. I hope there's an early goal or we may be looking at only the second 0-0 game in the tournament so far.

If you would read a bit more carefully you would realize that in no part of my post did I say Italy were better than Germany. I did say that Italy and Germany were the best two teams in the competition and I definitely stand by my statement. Spain are a team with a squad with lots of players in bad form and they aren't ticking they are definitely overrated and Portugal, well they just don't have the quality in the their team aprat from Ronaldo and a couple more players to be able to compete with the big guns. For me, Italy and Germany have been the best two teams and while I also stated that Germany was in great form, I believe Italy have that extra bit of experience, desire and less pressure than the German's, which makes this game what I said before a coin coss, though in my opinion Italy are slight favorites, anyhow the odds represent value, thats why Italy is my pick here. They shouldn't be paying more than 2.0- 2.3 for them to pass to the final, I got them at 2.9. There is a big difference between winning 15 games for a qualifier than playing a semi final. Italy historically has known how to play such games. You remember the last time Italy lost a semi final in 90 minutes? Probably not.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27

It was a good tip' date=' but I was wondering why you didn't follow it yourself?[/quote'] I would have happily taken the unders market on this game, but there was no value. Odds were just way too low, Portugal on a handicap had some value, but it just wasn't enough for me to take them, and while I expected a 0-0 and a penalty shootout in favor of Spain at the stakes I'm betting at it was better to leave this game alone.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27

This game could easily end 0-0. If the game reaches the 70th minute and its all tied up, you can expect things to slow down a lot (like Italy vs England) and both teams not wanting to risk anything.

People are overrating Spain, they have been poor this Euro and without a consolidated striker really fail to pose much threat, they have really struggled to score goals (bar their match vs Ireland who were a joke). I think this game will go all the way to 120 minutes and Spain will win the penalty shootout. If I had to bet on this, which I am not, because I can't find enough value that would be my bet.

Hope someone followed my tip.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 People are overrating Spain, they have been poor this Euro and without a consolidated striker really fail to pose much threat, they have really struggled to score goals (bar their match vs Ireland who were a joke). I think this game will go all the way to 120 minutes and Spain will win the penalty shootout. If I had to bet on this, which I am not, because I can't find enough value that would be my bet.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 This game could easily end 0-0. If the game reaches the 70th minute and its all tied up, you can expect things to slow down a lot (like Italy vs England) and both teams not wanting to risk anything.

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Match of the tournament for me. The two best teams in Europe face each other in what can only be described as another classic. Will history repeat itself? The last 5 times these two teams faced each other Germany failed to win. Germany come into this game as heavy favorites to win the Euro Cup and in truth they have really performed well enough and they have the quality and fitness to go all the way, but one should never underestimate the Italians who all though more under the radar, have played very well this Euro Cup and have a lot of quality in their team, definitely enough to make this game a highly competitive one, with no favorites. And thats the key for me in this game, there is no favorites. Who will win? I don't know, they look evenly matched to me, each team with its own style and each team with its strengths and weaknesses. Its a coin toss. Italy come into this game with morale high and experience as well as confidence and history on their side, with no expectations put on them they can play this game knowing they already can go back home in glory, meanwhile for Germany pressure is extra high and I can't help but wonder how they will handle it. So where is the value? The value is most definitely on Italy (the underdog) priced at 2.9 on bet365 to pass to the next round, it should only be in between 2.0 and 2.3, so I definitely like the line and will take it! Italy to pass to the final @ 2.9 on bet365.