Cafa
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Posts posted by Cafa
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Re: Holland v Germany - June 13 I agree with the others, this will be a high-scoring match. The Netherlands will want to improve on their offense compared to the Denmark match, not realizing that the defence is their problem. Germany is scoring roughly 3 goals in average, Portugal is the only team which held them to 1 goal only in recent matches. The Dutch don't play that way. Their non-existant defence will be a playground for Ozil, Podolski and the others. Germany will win, and there will be more than 2.5 goals, probably even more than 3.5. Looking at the probable lineups, the Dutch don't plan on defending: link
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Final > Saturday 19 May I think Bayern is underpriced. IMHO, they didn't show any real might this season, and they're awful defensively. They seem a bit naive, putting only one midfield player who plays defence, they're hoping the 65% possession will be enough to lift the trophy. But Bayern has a problem. They only win if they lead at half time. So, all Bayern backers, you might do better by choosing Bayern to win the first half. If they don't, they won't win the match anyway. Chelsea seems a much more intense team, and someone said intensity is everything in football (after losing from Wigan several weeks ago). The only liability is David Luiz, but still he's better than Anatoli Tymoschuk in Bayern's defence. And Tymoschuk will be much more exposed, on a wider space, than Luiz will. Tymoschuk to stop Drogba and Mata in a counter attack? I don't think so. I'm neutral and I think Chelsea will somehow win. Bayern is a one-trick pony. Here are the lineups though they're available everywhere anyway: link My bets: Over 4.5 yellow cards Drogba to score anytime, 3.800 John Obi Mikel to score anytime, 44.000 - why not, the last time he scored a goal was on Africa Cup 2008, might be time for the ball to bounce off him somehow :)
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Re: Europa League Final 09/05 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao [in Bucharest, Romani We got two completely different teams here. Did anyone notice that no central player of Atletico Madrid has any assists? It's flank players only. They have a simple game plan, they play through the flanks and cross the ball to Falcao. Even the 2nd forward, Adrian, is looking to pass to Falcao. Since their standard right back is injured they're even crazy enough to put a winger, Juanfran, on right back. Everything is targeted towards making a cross for Falcao. It's the price they've paid when selling Kun Aguero, who is the kind of player who creates his own chances, and buying Falcao, who needs the team to work for him. So, gradually during the season, they went to extremes and now the entire team is working for him. Athletic Bilbao is more dangerous IMO. Or at least the danger is coming from more sides. Iker Muniain is an awesome player, Suaseta is great on the other wing, they all play offensively and are very creative. Llorente, unlike Falcao, does give assists. Muniain and Suaseta are therefore helping with the scoring. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, is a one-trick pony. My bets: Athletic Bilbao to win, 3.200, Betfair Athletic Bilbao (0), 2.310, Pinnacle Sports Both to score, 1.750, Expekt I can't post images for some reason so here is a link to the lineups.
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Re: England > FA Cup > Final > 5 May Di Matteo rested some players against Newcastle, I think he focused entirely on this FA Cup final and the Champions League final. Liverpool only did two things good this season - beating Everton and beating the small teams in the cups. The squad is unbalanced, I just don't see how could they beat Chelsea. Chelsea to win to nil. Unless Suarez does something, but I don't think he will. Lineups for the match
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 3 April Xavi is questionable, he missed training for two days with a muscular injury. Guardiola is contemplating playing with 3-man defence to increase the attacking pressure on Milan (translation: to get another 5% of possession and to make the game as boring as possible)
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 3 April To follow up on my post above, here are the probable lineups for the matches if anyone needs them: Barcelona-Milan Bayern-Marseille (really, no Swiney) With this price on Barcelona, the asian handicap market offers value. Milan +2 is priced at 1.790, and it seems like a very good bet. Barcelona would need to win by a three-goal margin to ruin the bet, and I don't think that will happen. As Mustafa said above, this isn't BATE Borisov they're playing.
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Re: Blackburn v Man Utd > April 2 Alex Ferguson wants to take back those 3 points lost at Old Trafford on 31.12. Sure, they also need the points to win the title, but this would be a better bet if Manchester City won their match. Now United can win a point, stay 3 points above City, and win the title in the end. They can even lose and still win the title. Who would have thought City will play 1-1 in Stoke-on-Trent and then play 3-3 at home against Sunderland? They too are chasing the title. The odds on United are too short because of the title race, I see some value in Blackburn +1.5 at 1.790. I doubt ManU will win by more than 1 goal. It won't be an easy match.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 4 April Chelsea-Benfica Probably many of you will disagree, but Benfica dominated the first match and should have won. They weren't patient enough up front and instead of waiting for a good goalscoring chance they were just shooting from anywhere. Chelsea was on the back foot for most of the match and Torres gave that amazing assist against the run of play. I see no reason why Benfica couldn't do the same to Chelsea, they're flexible and offensive enough while Chelsea is pretty much static. If things go wrong (e.g. Benfica scores first), I'm not too sure Di Matteo will know what to do. There are a lot of ifs and I'm not saying Benfica will certainly win, but I'm almost certain Benfica will again provide a good display. David Luiz and Didier Drogba are out for Chelsea as far as I know. Real Madrid-APOEL I'll be taking the highest possible handicap on Real, I belive it's -5. The visitors will be defending in their penalty box for 90 minutes, and Real had 28 shots on goal in the first leg. It won't be nice. Real scored 5 goals against Real Sociedad and 5 against Osasuna and reached 100 league goals this season (Barcelona is at 86). Real is desperately trying to prove to everyone that they too are an offensive team and will use APOEL to make a point. Benzema, Higuain and Ronaldo are doing 90% of the scoring, the first two are a good bet as anytime goalscorers. Ronaldo is priced too low. Although his desire to break Messi's record of 5 goals in CL shouldn't be underestimated. This is a perfect opportunity, you don't get to host a team like APOEL in the CL often. Ronaldo to score 2+?
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 3 April Barcelona-Milan Barcelona was frustrated that they didn't take the victory in the first leg, but I was watching the match and it was Ibrahimovic who missed the best chance on the match. Milan did well, they have Pato back, and they played 2-2 on Camp Nou last season in the group stage (when they scored in 1st and 90th minute). They do have something to play with, and are dangerous. 1.31 is too low, this isn't Osasuna or Atletico Madrid. It's Milan. That's why I'm leaning towards a draw. Milan needs a scoring draw to advance, and the chance for that is higher than the suggested 15%, in my opinion. Bayern-Marseille Now this is a match for odds around 1.30. Marseille didn't play this weekend as their match at Montpellier was postponed so they had no chance to bounce back from the defeat and test some new things. Andre Ayew, their best player, said he wants to play for Bayern but will stay in Marseille for now. Perhaps there's a chance that Marseille already gave up on this match (or at least they will when they concede the 1st goal), as they are on 9th place in Ligue 1, with a chance to reach high spots if they enter a winning streak. Schweinsteiger is back for Bayern and that's great news. I think we'll be seeing a home win, probably even with a handicap, depending on the course of the match.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 28 March Lineups: Marseille-Bayern Milan-Barcelona (published in the evening probably) Schweinsteiger is in the 20-man squad which traveled to Marseille and he's facing a late fitness test. Bayern has problems in visiting matches, that's when they miss Schweini the most. If he doesn't play, and I don't think he will, Marseille has a good chance to perform another miracle. Schweini is the engine. Robben and Ribery can do their thing at home, but in away matches it's not enough to establish field domination. As far as Milan-Barcelona goes, I'm biased as I'd like to see Ibrahimovic tear down the Catalonians, but he's biased as well so...Ibra to score anytime?
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 27 March Lineups: APOEL-Real Madrid Benfica-Chelsea I don't think Di Matteo is the one to solve the problems Chelsea has with static gameplay. If Villas-Boas couldn't do it, neither can this guy who almost sent WBA in Championship. That's why he's letting John Terry and Frank Lampard run the team. Benfica is flexible and fluent, and I think they will have the upper hand.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 15 March Lineups and formations: Hannover-Standard PSV-Valencia Udinese-AZ Alkmaar Athletic Bilbao-Manchester United Manchester City-Sporting Schalke-Twente Besiktas-Atletico Madrid Udinese-Alkmaar, X2 Udinese only knows how to play counter-attacking football. Not sure how will they cope with a situation in which they need to chase the score. Probably not too well. Alkmaar, like all Dutch teams, is playing equally well home and away. Athletic-Man Utd, both to score Evans is in the United lineup again, Bilbao will score. Since United has to chase the score they will score as well. Seems like a no-brainer. Second legs of knockout rounds tend to have more goals than the first legs - see what happened in the CL. Schalke-Twente, Twente to qualify I haven't seen Schalke play well for a while now. They're slow, sluggish, lack creativity, and can't control the field. Their 3-1 victory at home over HSV in the last Bundesliga round looked like "they're playing bad but scoring". Generally, I wouldn't rate their offense very high, even with Huntelaar. There are times when their offense looks lost. Twente is a serious team, they started playing even faster and even better since selling Bryan Ruiz.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Lineups and formations: Chelsea-Napoli Real Madrid-CSKA I'm surprised to see very low action on both matches on most forums. People probably don't see an edge and won't bet much. I don't see anything either, but then again yesterday I saw two good bets and lost both. Maybe I could try something extraordinary tonight. Real-CSKA, over 4.5 goals, 3.10 Sportingbet, 3/10 With odds 1.15 for home win we don't have that many chances to find a good bet. Yesterday I put money on Basel +2.5, we know how that ended. Probably because of that result, I think things will get ugly for CSKA as well. Historically, Real returned from the first knockout leg with a draw 21 times, and won the home match 20 times afterwards. Forget the first match, Real is different when playing at home. CSKA will try to hold the score at 0-0 for as long as possible, and as soon as they concede they will need to go forward, leaving a lot of space for Real up front. If Higuain will really play as the striker for Real, as seen on the lineups, I'm confident we'll see a high victory for Real. Maybe CSKA manages to score a consolation goal, making over 4.5 a better bet than Real -3.5 for example. Chelsea-Napoli, 2, 5.00 Boyle, 2/10 We've seen Chelsea underperform a lot of times this season. Now they have a coach who was fired from WBA for almost dropping out of Premiership, and they had to hire Roy Hodgson to start playing some decent football. Why wouldn't Napoli take advantage of the underperforming team which is under a lot of pressure and has a bad coach? Napoli can score, we all know that. Chelsea sometimes can't score. And it's difficult to score under pressure. So...worth a shot. Betting on Napoli is, IMHO, a wiser choice than betting on Chelsea for 1.80. Because, betting on Chelsea is betting on a) the name, b) the fact that they need a win. But in the domestic league they've won 14/28 matches, 50%. I can't call them favorites in any match this season, especially not with the odds the bookies are giving them. They already lost at home from Aston Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal...why not Napoli? Odds are good.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February Lineups I could find: Valencia-Stoke http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/Valencia-Stoke/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145192--1-1 Besiktas-Braga http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/Besiktas-Braga/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145199--1-1 Atletico Madrid-Lazio http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/Atletico Madrid-Lazio/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145195--1-1 Twente-Steaua http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/Twente-Steaua Bucuresti/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145196--1-1 PSV-Trabzonspor http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/PSV Eindhoven-Trabzonspor/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145201--1-1 Manchester United-Ajax http://www.oddsnavigator.eu/match/Soccer/UEFA Cup 1 Europa League/Manchester United-Ajax/1x2-ord-juice_a-1145189--1-1 There are some important missings, for example Klose from Lazio or Rooney from ManU. In general, I think all these matches are pretty close and the underdogs got a good chance. Of these six, I only wouldn't give any chance to Stoke against Valencia. Besiktas is better when visiting than when playing at home. Both Besiktas and Braga are Portuguese teams, and Braga is used to that style of play. Actually, the whole concept of Braga's game style is revolving around countering the top Portuguese teams. I believe the visitors can grab at least a point.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 14 February Formations for today's matches: Lyon-APOEL Bayer-Barcelona I don't think there will be any surprises tonight. APOEL did well in the group stage but this is the knockout round and they can't expect anything here. Lyon's league form is irrelevant, they are always performing well in the CL. Bayer is weakened, Barca well rested, I don't think anyone should be looking for an upset in this match. Bayer is an offensive team and they don't feel good when they don't have the ball as their defence is shaky. They rely on possession to score goals. And they won't have the ball much tonight, although IMO Barca is never playing too well after resting key players, they tend to look a little rusty to me. I'd take it as a combo for 2.00+. If Lyon or Barca fail to win, it's impossible to make a profit with singles anyway. So I'd say it's safer to combine the two matches for half of the stake. If both win, profit is bigger than with singles. If one doesn't win, it's a losing day anyway. So I'll take a bet "No surprises in the CL today" for 2.00.
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Re: Sunderland v Arsenal > Sat 11 Feb
Arsenal may seem lucky, but IMHO it's a sign of a big team. Even when they play bad, even when you expect a team like Sunderland to get the best of them, they somehow manage to win. I also think Sunderland has a chance today but many things would have to go their way in order to get a point or three. Sunderland's schedule was very easy lately, they did win 7 out of last 10 but all those opponents (except City) were weak. LineupsArsenal were lucky last time out at Blackburn -
Re: Tottenham v Newcastle > Sat 11 Feb I don't see much chance of an upset here, but I agree Tottenham is underpriced. They're not that reliable to be called such favorites over Newcastle. Here are the lineups:
Source
Now when I look at it, Tottenham is my favorite because Adebayor is in the lineup. If I remember correctly, he didn't play in the 2-2 match in Newcastle.
Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday September 13th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday September 13th Unbiased opinion - Arsenal are poor against other top sides and will be until Wenger decides to invest in a defensive midfielder. You don't play against Manchester City without midfield defence, and that's exactly what Wenger will try to do on Saturday. City wins.