[Tennis: Australian Open 2012]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

[Spain - La Liga - 14-15 January]

Re: Spain - La Liga - 14-15 January 3pts - Barcelona v Real Betis - Fabregas Anytime Goalscorer - Evens @ Bwin Barcelona are not on form.... away from home. However, at home they have one of the strongest, if not the strongest home record in the world. They've played 9 games in La Liga at home this year and won 8 and drawn 1, scoring 39 goals in the process. Average that out and it's a whopping 4.33 goals per game, you'll notice I haven't given you their goals conceded average, that's because they've not let a single goal in all season at home. Impressive and for the purpose of this bet it's useful to know that the direction of play is going to be strongly in one direction and Fabregas will be heavily involved. Since David Villa broke his leg, the team have been required to score more goals and Fabregas has taken this mantle on by himself. Betis went into free-fall after an impressive start and have recently picked up crucial wins against Athletico Madrid and Valencia but Barcelona at the Nou Camp is a completely different task. I'm going for Fabregas because in Barca's last two La Liga home games, Fabregas has scored first (5/1 at Bwin if you fancy that) and since Villa got injured he has been the main man for the Catalan club. Normally I'd go first goalscorer each way as you get slighty better odds but there is every chance Barca could hit the higher end of their average goals tonight.

[France - Ligue 1 - 14-15 January]

Re: France - Ligue 1 - 14-15 January

Hmm, Marseille vs. Lille looks as a goal fest game to me. Since 2010 on, these teams produced 3 or more goals every time they met. Also, last 8 games Marseille played 7 games over 2 goals while Lille on last 8 games was involved in 4 over 2 goals, 2 with 2 goals. I'm expecting goals to be seen today so I'll be jumping on the goal market here. Over 2 Goals @ 1,60 [3 Units] with Bet365

Not to put you off your bet but I'd just be a little cautious over the African nations players going and also the Marseille defence is pretty tight at home. Best of luck though!

[Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January 3pts - AC Milan v Internazionale - Home win - 11/10 Various AC Milan currently sit at the top of Serie A, impressive of late and consistent. They have scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 games, have only conceded 4 goals at home this year and scored 21 in 8 games. To break that down they've scored an average of 2.6 goals and only conceded an average of 0.5 goals. Pretty impressive and obviously a massive contribution to their league position. They are also unbeaten and whilst they face a strong team in Inter, I always love to back top of the league teams at evens or better. It's likely that Wesley Sneijder will be back in the squad but as good as he is, there are clear questions whether he will be match fit and this isn't a game for passengers. Ibrahimovich has decided that he can be bothered playing at the moment, this is great news for the bet, he has scored in the last six Serie A for Milan and these goals can help to seal the points today. It's likely to have a fair few goals in this game, Inter were poor at the start of the season and haven't lost away since Ranieri took over. That said, I believe that Inter's recent run is a little misleading, over the season they've struggled against the better teams and the last three wins have been against teams placed 15th or lower in the league. The most recent away win was 1-0 against Cesena who are awful offensively but have an OK defence, to me this shows that Inter can struggle against defensively sound teams, like AC Milan. Inter will come into this game and feel they can get something out of it, possibly 'expect' something out of it based on their recent form, potentially this mindset could be their downfall as they could get very frustrated quickly against a well organised AC. Expecting goals at both ends, over 2.5 might be worth a punt but verdict for me is a home win for AC Milan

[England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

3pts - Liverpool v Stoke - Under 2.5 goals. @ 1.96 on Betfair Liverpool have the joint 4th best home defence in the league, so far this season they've conceded 8 goals in 10 games and have only managed to score 14 goals (Less than Norwich). Average this out and it's a defensive record of 0.80 goals conceded and 1.40 scored, you can do the math! At home Liverpool have struggled to seal wins that clubs above have been winning. Out of 10 home games Liverpool have been involved in 3 games that have resulted in over 2.5 goals, an awful Bolton team, a not much better Wolves and a defensively weakened Newcastle that had also had a tough streak of games. Suarez is the hub of creativity for the Anfield club, he's banned and has been replaced by what can only be viewed as a player lumbered by a massively overpriced £35 million price tag. He has goals in him but so did Robbie Keane and that didn't work out even with all his experience. Against Man City during the Carling Cup, Liverpool were tight, had a solid set up and got men behind the ball at the earliest occasion, sure it leaves Carroll very much isolated but that is positive for this bet. Now for Stoke - A hard team to break down, well organised and know what they need to do in order to get a point or three away from home (won one less that Man City away this season). Stoke have scored 8 goals this year away from home which averages out at 0.8. The against column isn't so friendly for this bet, however when you look closer, you'll be able to see that 11 of these goals have come against Arsenal, Man City and the 5-0 thrashing at Bolton, which was probably a one off.) If you average out the remaining 9 goals over 7 games it gives you a much more respectable and for this upcoming game an accurate average of 1.57. 1.57 is fairly high but that does include a 4-0 beating by Sunderland early on in the season. If you look at Stoke's last 4 away games they've kept 1 clean sheet away at Everton and conceded 1 away Blackburn + Wolves and leaked 3 against Man City. This makes for a recent average of 1.25 Tony Pulis has shored up his defence in recent weeks and despite a few injury problems I believe this should be a closely run contest with only a few goals if that.

:cheers Hope I was able to help a few people win a little here. Tidy little 3pts win here for myself.

[England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January 1pt - Chelsea v Sunderland - Sunderland Draw NO BET @ 6.8 on Betfair Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea.... A conundrum at the best of times, you never really know what team is going to turn up and for that reason alone it's worth opposing them, throw in a few more facts and you'll see why I believe my bet is justified. Chelsea have a 60% win rate at home, this would mean at 6.8 this bet represents a decent and fair level of value. Sunderland have a non loss rate of 50% away, you get the idea here that 50% of the time this bet would either pay out or refund. Chelsea have been lackluster since their excellent win against a previously unbeaten Man City, on their day Chelsea would win this game with Sunderland but last year Sunderland managed a resounding 0-3 win away at the Bridge, bar the 7-2 thrasing in 2010, matches between these two are close and I look at the recent form of Sunderland under Martin O'Neill and they are a team rejuvenated. Sunderland have players coming back and Chelsea look likely to have John Terry and Sturridge back in the squad but will be without Essien, Drogba and Kalou. Sunderland are in form and Chelsea aren't.

[England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January 3pts - Liverpool v Stoke - Under 2.5 goals. @ 1.96 on Betfair Liverpool have the joint 4th best home defence in the league, so far this season they've conceded 8 goals in 10 games and have only managed to score 14 goals (Less than Norwich). Average this out and it's a defensive record of 0.80 goals conceded and 1.40 scored, you can do the math! At home Liverpool have struggled to seal wins that clubs above have been winning. Out of 10 home games Liverpool have been involved in 3 games that have resulted in over 2.5 goals, an awful Bolton team, a not much better Wolves and a defensively weakened Newcastle that had also had a tough streak of games. Suarez is the hub of creativity for the Anfield club, he's banned and has been replaced by what can only be viewed as a player lumbered by a massively overpriced £35 million price tag. He has goals in him but so did Robbie Keane and that didn't work out even with all his experience. Against Man City during the Carling Cup, Liverpool were tight, had a solid set up and got men behind the ball at the earliest occasion, sure it leaves Carroll very much isolated but that is positive for this bet. Now for Stoke - A hard team to break down, well organised and know what they need to do in order to get a point or three away from home (won one less that Man City away this season). Stoke have scored 8 goals this year away from home which averages out at 0.8. The against column isn't so friendly for this bet, however when you look closer, you'll be able to see that 11 of these goals have come against Arsenal, Man City and the 5-0 thrashing at Bolton, which was probably a one off.) If you average out the remaining 9 goals over 7 games it gives you a much more respectable and for this upcoming game an accurate average of 1.57. 1.57 is fairly high but that does include a 4-0 beating by Sunderland early on in the season. If you look at Stoke's last 4 away games they've kept 1 clean sheet away at Everton and conceded 1 away Blackburn + Wolves and leaked 3 against Man City. This makes for a recent average of 1.25 Tony Pulis has shored up his defence in recent weeks and despite a few injury problems I believe this should be a closely run contest with only a few goals if that.