Jackisnice
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Posts posted by Jackisnice
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Re: Flat Racing 1st Feb 7.20 Kempton This is a good race, but I think a lot of the field can be ruled out. There are a lot of albeit sometimes inconsistant pace angles which implies that the race should be run at a strong pace. Bawaardi was beaten in a handicap off a mark of 80 two starts ago, and although the race worked out fairly well, his recent claimer win has raised him 2lbs and even with the jockey's 5lbs claim I would be surprised to see him win. After his last race his trainer said that he would be kept at claiming level after winning what he thought was a poor race so it is arguably surprising to see him in this tough handicap. Last Sovereign was disappointing in a claimer behind Bawaardi last time out, and although entitled to come on for that run and benefit from the return of blinkers, it would be surprising that he improves enough to play a hand in the finish here. Both Ocean Legend and May's Boy have come from a good race too, but both ran as though they need some help from the handicapper. That siad, May's Boy could improve for his last run as it was after a break, and he has been dropped 2lbs. Bianca De Medici has been marked up as favourite on the tissue prices that have already been released and I cannot work out why. She is racing off her highest ever mark and has recently shown herself to not find much off the bridle and back away from Southwell I am very keen to take her on, especially at what looks to be a relatively short price. Amethyst Dawn will improve for the drop back to seven furlongs in my opinion but I would like to have seen more than she showed last time before she can become a realistic betting proposition. It would be a surprise in my opinion to see either Legal Legacy or Al Aqabah have the ability to get involved in the finish here. I do think that Judd Street will pop up sometime soon so it might be worth noting any market support, but he has not won in 16 starts and he runs without his usual tongue-tie. This leaves two horses, and I am keen to wager on them both. SANTEFISIO has a good record on the all-weather and has done well for Peter Makin. His is however on a high mark compared to the rest of his form and I am a little worried about the seven furlong trip as he does seem better over a mile. On the other hand he travels really well and should get a strong pace which will suit him down the ground. His last race has worked out really well with the second coming second in a hot race, and the third, sixth and seventh have won since. The main reason that I am interested in SANTEFISIO is that he is making his first start for the successful and in-form Keith Dalgleish. He has five wins from 24 runners in January this year and Joe Fanning has a great record of 23-93 (25%) when riding for him. When new horses make their debut for him on the all-weather he has a strike rate of 20% with four winners from twenty runners showing a nice level stakes profit. If the switch to a new yard can bring about a few pounds improvement, which it so often does, I think he stands a very strong chance here. TAMAREEN is the other horse that I am interested in. He ran a good race last time out behind a horse that has gone on to win again since and is only 2lbs above his last winning mark over seven furlongs if factoring in his jockey's claim. The Richard Fahey yard are in cracking form and I think he should run well. I have priced the race up as follows: 4-1Santefisio, 6-1Tamareen, 8-1 May's Boy, 9-1 Prince Of Burma, 12-1 Bawaardi, Bianca De Medici, Legal Legacy, 16-1 Ocean Legend, Judd Street, 28-1 Al Aqabah, 33-1 Amethyst Dawn, Last Sovereign. 4.5pts win on SANTEFISIO at 9-1 with Bet365 taking BOGs and 1.5pts win on TAMEREEN at 15-2 with William Hill taking BOGs. ....... 5.20 Lingfield KING OF WINDSOR ran a great race over course and distance last time out and if the switch to his new yard could bring about a small amount of improvement and he could be hard to beat. 2pts win at 9-2 with Victor Chandler taking BOGs. ....... 0.5pts each way double on KING OF WINDSOR and SANTAFISIO with BetVictor taking 9-2 and 8-1 respectively and BOGs.
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Re: Flat Racing 16th Jan 3.25 Wolverhampton This grade five represents a drop in class for RUSSIAN GEORGE and he is also aided by first-time cheekpieces. His last three runs on the flat have been in high-quality races than this and after being dropped by 4lbs (I think generously) he is elegible for a 0-75 handicap. He met trouble last time out which cost vital momentum and although ultimately well-beaten I think a reproduction of that run should at least get him into the frame here considering that the race has worked out well with horses running in higher grades. RUSSIAN GEORGE'S trainer, Steve Gollings, does not have many flat runners, but from his last twelve, five have won. His jumps team are also in good order. Robert Winston is heading to Wolverhampton for just one ride here as well and is 2-12 when riding for the trainer. There should be enough pace to suit him with a few horses having led before and he has a fair draw to be able to jump out and get a good position. George Baker has a very strong record (10-36, 28%) with new horses running first time for him and the way Warneford won last time out coupled with the jockey booking make him impossible to ignore, and I would have been keen to have a stake covering saver on him but at 3-1 I think he is too short. JAWAAB has been running in some better races than today's and I am convinced he will bounce back some time soon and consequently I cannot let him run without a small bet back up in trip. 3.5pts each-way on RUSSIAN GEORGE at 20-1 taking BOGs, 1pt win on JAWAAB at 33-1 with Paddy Power taking BOGs.
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Re: Flat Racing Thursday 5th Just copied across from my blog... An absolutely brilliant day yesterday as both races produced the winners mentioned. Thunderstruck hit the front quite far out, and after having a rival come upsides he found more and was on top at the line. The Rectifier was not impressive but he got the job done well enough. +49pts from 5pts staked from the 2.20. +10.75pts from 5pts staked from the 5.30. Overal on the day 59.75pts from 10pts staked. ....... 6.10 Wolverhampton This is another competitive grade four here, and one with an already volatile market. There is lots of pace in the race from Rock Of Deauville, Wild Desert, Exemplary and Ascendant, and I think that it could be perfect for BIVOUAC who usually travels well into his races. He is perceived to be a fibresand horse and I think that has contributed to his relatively large odds of 10-1, but his last run away from Southwell worked out quite well and he is 2lbs below his mark that day. Alan Swinbank has his flat horses in great form at the moment with 13 wins from his last 23 runners, and he has maintained a 16% strike rate at Wolves in the last five years. Jim Crowley is a rare booking for the yard having only ridden four times for him, but three of those were winners so it can be looked at as a positive. 2pts win on BIVOUAC at 10-1 taking BOGs. ....... 5.00 Meydan This looks a brilliant race and I am very interested in how QUICK WIT goes after following him in his second season in the UK and if he can put his last performance behind him he stands a great chance here with Kieran Fallon making it his only mount of the day. The break can be seen as a positive on the back of how he has ran after a break before. 1pt win on QUICK WIT at 10-1 taking BOGs. ....... 2.30 Meydan Another nice race which I am convinced will go to one of the Godolphin horses. I think MODERN HISTORY is worth a bet under the supposed 'third string' colours. He was highly campaigned for Andre Fabre after winning a conditions race on his second start that worked out extremely well. He then won a listed race before flopping in the French Guineas. He then was arguably disappointing in a group three, but that has thrown up a few smart performers. He ran well on his return from a break at the start of his 3yo career, and his sire's stats for the all-weather are very strong, both indicating that a big run is on the cards. 2pts win on MODERN HISTORY at 7-1 with Paddy Power taking BOGs.
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Re: Flat Racing 4th Jan 2.20 Lingfield A very, very open race here, and I was quite keen to find one representing each-way value with a quarter of the odds paid for the top three places. THUNDERSTRUCK is making his debut for Scott Dixon, a trainer that has made a good start to the game in the last few weeks. He seemed to have lost his way last year, but he is definitely better on the all-weather and I think there is opportunity for improvement with the switch of trainers off a fair mark. I think BIG CREEK is also interesting dropped in weights and class and am going to have a small saver on him with Spencer booked. 2pts each-way on THUNDERSTRUCK at 20-1 (Posted at 18:45) taking BOGs. 1pt win on BIG CREEK at 8-1 taking BOGs. I think 16s is still available for Thunderstruck. ....... 5.30 Kempton A nice conditions race here and I am excited for the return of THE RECTIFIER. He was placed in some very smart races last year and I think he is worth at least his rating of 105. This is his first run on the all-weather, but his sire's stats for his offspring indicate that he might take to it well and might even improve. They also show that his offspring get better with age and the few months off could have allowed him to strengthen up a little more. He is being aimed a potential campaign in Dubai and his trainer has said that he should love those conditions, and our all-weather is the closest he will get to it over here. If that engagement is to be fulfilled you would like to see him winning here first. This might be being used as a prep race but even not 100% fit I think he will still be able to put up a strong challenge. Another horse I am interested in is TREADWELL who showed smart form in the middle of last year and ran as though he needed it two starts ago from a little break, and he would have preferred further last time. Jamie Osborne is in cracking form at the moment and I think he is worth a small bet alongside THE RECTIFIER. I think Kakatosi is the main threat otherwise but I am more keen on THE RECTIFIER. 3.5pts win on THE RECTIFIER at 3-1 taking BOGs and 1.5pts win on TREADWELL at 11-1 taking BOGs.
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Re: FLAT Racing - Dece 31st Saturday 2.45 Lingfield I am quite keen to take on the Noseda trained short-priced favourite up in both grade and the weights. Titan Triumph has not got a brilliant record when turned out quickly from a run, and William Knight has not had a brilliant year. Novellen Lad is the biggest threat to my selection and he might be worth a little saver. WHAILEYY is making his first start for the in-form Marco Botti yard after a starting out with Sir Michael Stoute. Marco Botti has ran 38 horses that have changed trainers, and on their first runs for him 11 (29%) have managed to win. He has been tried over a variety of trips, and he seems quite versatile but his maiden win did come at this trip. This does represent a slight drop in grade compared to the races he has been facing, and his last race has worked out quite well. This is his first run on the all-weather but his sire, Holy Roman Emperor, has very strong results on the surface averaging a 19.4% (28-144) strike rate. His offspring at Lingfield have achieved a 27.6% (8-29) strike rate. He also has a stronger record with 3yos. Again a relatively limited sample, but he has a stronger record with geldings (10-31) and WHAILEYY has been gelded since his last run which could put forward an argument for a little bit more improvement. I was a little worried that Adam Kirby was not booked to ride it as he has been riding very well for Marco Botti lately, but Adam Beschizza has a good record for the owners (3-6) including a win on Green Destiny, and it seems the owners have requested him. Although the early price of 9-1 that I advised has gone there does not seem to be a lot of money for my selection and that seemed more like the market was just readjusting. This is a worry given the stable and the fact their fancied horses are usually well backed. That said the rest of the market looks quite volatile in terms of support for other horses. 3.5pts on WHAILEYY at 9-1 with William Hill taking BOGs. This was posted elsewhere last night, the current best price is 6s I think. There has been a 10p R4.
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Re: Flat Racing - 30th Dec Not much time for a big write-up, but selections here. 4.40 Wolverhampton A very open race, and one that I am going to back two horses in. The first is TOMBI who has fallen a lot in the weights from his smarter days but showed signs of a return to form last time out after hosing up over course and distance, albeit in a claimer. He is clearly better when held up, and there are a few pace angles in the race to think that he can do the same again. The other horse is WHERE'S REILEY who was an eye-catcher last time out after being given a lot to do and is arguably open to improvement after only two runs for his new yard. The fourth from his last race has since come out and won, albeit at Southwell. 2.5pts win on TOMBI at 9-1 and 1.5pts win on WHERE'S REILEY at 10-1 taking BOG with Ladbrokes.
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Re: Flat Racing 29th Dec I agree the 5.50 is horribly competitive. I thought Plattsburgh was slightly overpriced too at 14-1. He has, like a lot of Mark Johnston horses, had an up and down career under his training, but at the time of his latest win and second in a grade three he looked a fair performer. Even his last time out eighth was against stronger opposition and is fair form in comparison to today's opposition. Although he has been off for 77 days, I see this as a positive as it could have freshened him up, and both Mark Johnston and Bernadini have strong records with their horses returning from a small break. There is absolutely no pace in the race and in an ideal world I would like Franny Norton to get him to the front early and set a strong pace as I ideally he wants further and will definitely stay. He has led before but is not often the quickest away so it is a risk. He is a horse that has loked to have a few quirks in his career, but he has been gelded since his last run which could have helped iron a few issues out. The other interesting thing for me is that Mark Johnston has kept hold of him after many opportunities to send him to the sales this year. A race where they all stand a good chance but I just liked the potential pace angle here.
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Afternoon all. My name is Jack and I am currently at Uni reading economics. My strong love for racing has eventually led me here through a recommendation from Monterosso, albeit a while back. My already mentioned passion for racing has led me to have created a blog too, and one thing that I miss aside from the odd limited conversation on twitter is genuine discussion about races and getting other people's views. I was promised that this is the place! After trying posts out on the Betfair forum it is clear discussion and debate are not two of the most common occurrences! Another planed use for me signing up is to talk about systems that are involved in racing, and I am doing my dissertation on this too. I am asking the question if money can be made in the long term from racing. I know for a fact it can as people I know do it for a living, but to test this with a bit more accuracy I am taking the 'opinion/expertise' out of it, and by using systems this can be achieved. As the title says, just an introductory post, and I look forward to hopefully providing a few winners and fair discussion! Jack
Dissertation on systems/stats
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Morning all. This is going to come across as a mightily cheeky post, but it comes with perfectly reasonable intentions attached! As the title implies, I am doing some work on systems for my dissertation and am currently collecting some systems so I can get quarterly figures together over the last ten years or so and then planning on testing them against the return from Government Bonds. I have got a few systems together at the moment, but I am looking to get a few more. I know that systems are often quite personal with things like this, but I would really appreciate any help anyone could give me, I would not mind paying a small amount if that helps too. Thank you in advanced, as I said, any help would be gratefully received as I am in a bit of a rush! Apologies again for the cheekiness. Jack