maria
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Posts posted by maria
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Re: Starting price reform
I'd be very surprised to see two bookies with odds of 3/1 and 5/1 for the same horse at the off' date=' but not so surprised to see two bookies with odds of 20/1 and 33/1 for the same horse.[/quote'] Yes indeed; very good point. The difference between even 3/1 and 5/1 is an absolutely huge volume of turnover compared with the difference between 20/1 and 33/1. -
Re: Starting price reform Hi ... my father and I worked out that we anticipated that on average this might make the SP's between 1% and 2% lower, for what it's worth. I can't quite remember what our assumptions were now, I'm sorry to say; but anyway we agree with you, Slapdash. This means either that you might be about right or of course that we have just made equivalently erroneous assumptions of our own! ... :$
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Re: The ASA are putting pressure on Tipsters!!!
Speaking for myself, I accept your apology; thank you. My guess is that Layer and many others who will have been offended by your behaviour here would have been more willing to accept your apology if you had been able and willing to respond intelligently to some of the excellent, persuasive and entirely valid points he made here in his posts above, rather than so feebly attempting to dismiss them without apparently being able to do so. I appreciate that you must feel that your reception here was somewhat on the hostile side, and I hope you'll take the time to consider the underlying reasons for which that might be so. Goodbye.Maria - Apologies if I've upset anyone -
Re: The ASA are putting pressure on Tipsters!!!
I think that such patronising comments here will not endear you at all to the members, Conans, and are completely unnecessary and quite disgraceful really ... :@ Layer has made a number of excellent points to you in this thread, to none of which, unsurprisingly, you have managed to respond adequately; indeed one could be forgiven for assuming that you have not even understood them ... :sad The main point which I think you are failing to appreciate is that members of this Forum, being in the fortunate position as we are of having a plethora of consistently profitable threads, systems, methods and sets of selections to follow, have absolutely no need whatsoever of commercial tipping services of the type you sell, not even the ones from which you so sadly can't profit yourself because they don't suit your style ... :eekGood luck to all but particularly to you as you obviously need a great deal of assistance ..... -
Re: The ASA are putting pressure on Tipsters!!! Maybe to you, as a tipster, that feels like "pressure". To me, it sounds very like empty and powerless rhetoric from an alleged watchdog with absolutely no teeth at all, and that you can throw it in the bin with impunity and absolutely no adverse consequences at all, and certainly continue to advertise in the RP, whose "proofing" claims are an unverifiable joke, and like any newspaper, tend to be on their advertisers' side when the chips are down. Call me cynical ... :eek
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Re: The Tipsters System I don't know about "showing a profit" ... but I know that posting lays at SP isn't worth reading, unfortunately, because it doesn't mean a thing ... :sad
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Re: Generally Accepted Lay %'ages Hi Thunderfoot, I promise I don't mean to sound dismissive of your question, but it honestly doesn't matter whether you use 4.3 or 4.4 to represent a starting-price of 3/1, because whichever one you use is fictional, and you can't measure whether or not your system is a profitable one from theoretical calculations of "generally accepted percentages". You can do this only by consistently putting real bets on with real money at live exchange prices after an extensive period of paper-trading from observing live exchange prices without actually submitting bets. Trying to use these "approximate averages" is the precise reason why so many racing forums are packed with laying systems which make dramatic profits on paper yet nearly all mysteriously and unaccountably fail the very minute any reader tries to duplicate them with real money. Again, I promise I'm not trying to be impolite, but there just isn't a clearer way to make this point: real bets for real money (after extended observation of live exchange prices, of course) are the only way you can learn anything. I think it should surprise nobody that what's "generally accepted" leads to losses, when you look at the proportion of punters who make losses ... :eek
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Re: how d'yer like your 100/1's?
I'm certainly not laying it! ... :dude3.10 - Newcastle - Wee Ellie Coburn. 100/1. Anyone taking a chance on this horse?? -
Re: Lay, Back and enjoy the show - horses Hi Byrnesy, thanks for your interest; hope you found it ok. If you'll excuse a "precautionary note" I must warn you (exactly as I've commented throughout my laying thread every time the question has come up) that although it's possible that the "overall structure/style" of my staking system might be helpful to others, and I hope that it will be, there's absolutely no reason at all to imagine that its details will be appropriate or profitable for selections other than those coming from the specific system for which it was designed. If your overall strike-rates and average prices within each sub-group were much different, it wouldn't even particularly surprise me if you made losses instead of profits with it ... :eek I'm not trying to put anyone off experimenting with it or adapting it to suit their own purposes, of course, and I would never have put it into the public domain in the first place if I minded people using it, but I always feel obliged to mention this when I see people asking about it, because I know that some people regard it as a license to print money (which it certainly isn't, at all!) and/or assume that because it's worked so well for a couple of years with my selections it will necessarily work just as well with theirs (which it almost certainly won't!). Sorry not to be more constructive/positive, but whatever glowing things you have heard about it may well not be quite right, and the ways in which they may well not be quite right might be ways that make it much harder to use than you expect - depending, of course, on what you're planning to try to use it for! ... :$ And having said all that, good luck! ;)
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Re: The Tipsters System
It's the most common way only when people are selling something, Ramses. Tipsters use it, forums don't. The other forums which I visit don't allow laying results at SP because they are unreal, impossible and so misleading to people ... :eyes Laying is a very high-turnover, low-profit-margin business. The overwhelming majority of systems and methods that appear profitable at SP and without 5% commission deducted from all winners are not actually viable in the real world ... :$ Commission is, in effect, just as likely to mislead as price differentials. It's true that not everyone pays the same commission, but the general internet/forum convention is that you deduct 5% commission in presenting all results. Many people thinking about laying don't even begin to understand the overwhelming difference that commission makes to their results. Again, it will normally be the difference between overall profit and overall loss ... :eek I appreciate that this isn't an opinion you want to hear, and I'm really sorry if it sounds pedantic, but when you've seen as many people as I have (in their quest for convenience, speed and simplicity) overlook these vital factors, only to end up losing a lot of money through poor understanding of the statistics and risks, you err on the side of pointing these things out! ;)posting SP is the simplest and most common way of posting results. -
Re: Dodgy Home Favourites
I thought the percentage bank was a good idea because in effect it never runs out (does it) ? ie after for 5 losers' date=' stakes would be 20,16,12,10,8 and the bank would still have 34pts left in it.[/quote'] Yes, I completely accept that ... when I spoke of the risk of "losing the bank" completely, I was thinking of ratchet staking at 20% in which case 5 losers would take away the whole bank, not two-thirds of it ... :$ However, I'm sure you'd also agree that losing two-thirds of the bank would be disastrous enough! ... :eek -
Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Hi Floorwalker, good luck: I wish you every possible success with your new system - looks very interesting! ... :)
Do you realise that even if it stays at 80% for ever (which is of course very unlikely indeed, if it's based on only 20 results), if you go on for long enough you will have a losing run of 5 and lose the whole bank. That's not a "might"; it's a "will": that's just a statistical certainty. But even before that, you will encounter a "losing patch" equivalent to a losing run of 5, i.e. it will lose the whole bank anyway ... :eek I hope that everything they teach about probability is wrong!! ... :hopeThe strike rate is 80% -
Re: Bookmakers returns Hi Cleandries, My understanding is that all bonus payouts for a "single winner" for all multiple bets from all bookies mean the same thing. Your EW lucky 31 yesterday comprised 62 bets, and if you had a winner and one placed, then you must have won a place-double as well.
I think the answer is "no"; hoping to be corrected on this by someone with unexpected good news! ... :)Is there any bookies who do offer x2 or x3 still to the WIN part even if other horses may come placed...???? -
Re: The Tipsters System
What I am thinking and I will go through this this weekend is changing the selection method to only laying horses that have 2 or more tips' date=' leaving the horses with 1 tip completely out of the equation.[/quote'] I have been asking myself exactly the same thing. I think there is real logic here. I suspect that the way to approach this system is actually not with price-criteria in mind, but value-criteria. The essential point of the system is surely that the fact that tipsters are touting a selection is what makes it terrible backing-value and therefore in the long term good laying-value. So it should follow from this that those touted by more tipsters are overall better laying value ... :) Dead? Steady on, Pinho: your system is in profit! ;) -
Re: The Tipsters System Really worried about your house now, Pinho: I did not realise you had weather like that in Portugal! :@ Wednesday's selections ... 2.00 Red Cavalry Guard 2 2.00 Red Karoo Blue 1 2.00 Red King's Apostle 1 2.10 GdwDannabelle 2 2.20 Per Baileys Best 1 2.45 Gdw Starry Messenger 3 2.55 Per Schinken Otto 2 3.10 Red Nanton 1 3.10 Red Fremen 2 3.20 Gdw Greek Renaissance 1 3.30 Per Allaboveboard 3 3.45 Red Coalpark 1 3.55 Gdw Imperial Stride 2 3.55 Gdw Nakheel 1 4.20 Red Seattle Robber 1 4.20 Red Second Reef 1 4.30 Gdw Quantum 2 4.30 Gdw Charlie Tokyo 2 4.30 Gdw Villa Sonata 1 4.55 Red The Leather Wedge 1 5.05 Gdw Halla San 1 5.05 Gdw Triple Bluff 1 5.15 Per Shared Account 1 5.30 Red Littledodayno 1 5.30 Red Nistaki 2 5.30 Red No Grouse 1 5.30 Red Elkhorn 3
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Re: The Tipsters System I do hope you won't mind this, Pinhofap; I would have asked you first if I could! But, just in case it's helpful to anyone ... Eau Good 2.10 Ayr 1 Kunte Kinteh 2.10 Ayr 1 Eager Igor 2.10 Ayr 1 Tedsdale Mac 2.20 Pon 1 Swiss Act 2.30 Yar 1 Wheels In Motion 2.40 Ayr 1 Big Player 3.05 Yar 1 The Illies 3.05 Yar 3 Glorious Prince 3.05 Yar 1 Our Little Secret 3.15 Ayr 2 Divine Spirit 3.15 Ayr 1 Disco Queen 3.35 Yar 1 Fath And Furiouth 3.35 Yar 1 Sanchi 3.45 Ayr 3 Baan 3.45 Ayr 1 Felicitous 4.00 Pon 2 Passion Fruit 4.00 Pon 1 Desert Storm 4.10 Yar 1 Rehearsed 4.10 Yar 2 Dance A Daydream 4.10 Yar 1 Writ 4.20 Ayr 1 Ballyhurry 4.20 Ayr 1 Ebtikaar 4.30 Pon 3 Liberman 4.30 Pon 1 Som Tala 4.30 Pon 2 Rationale 4.40 Yar 1 Samurai Way 5.00 Pon 2 Mobaasher 5.00 Pon 1 Spell Casting 5.00 Pon 1 Averticus 5.10 Yar 1 Flying Bantam 5.20 Ayr 1 Dispol Katie 5.20 Ayr 1 H Harrison 5.20 Ayr 1 Peruvian Style 5.40 Yar 1 Forces Sweetheart 5.40 Yar 1 Good luck today! ... :)
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Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy
That's for sure. Shorter races are definitely better, especially sprint handicaps. "Wide open" races of various kinds are better. The longer the favourite, the better. It may well be that some very poor quality races are better, too. (In theory, banded races ought to qualify for this style of betting, but I don't know how good the liquidity is.) ;)I would advise you to be selective on choosing the races. Go for races under 7f, with weak favourites, over 2/1. -
Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy
im currently looking into laying the entire field at about 1.5 to 1.8 . initial testing accross 100 races or so looks positive' date=' but we shall see..[/quote'] That's sort of similar to an idea that some professional layers use, a sort of bet sometimes known as a "Wilton" or an "Axminster" (because it's sometimes described as "carpet laying"). I have certainly never seen quite such a low figure mentioned as your 1.5 to 1.8 range, though. And I understand that in order to maximise profits it's essential to be selective with race-types. But good luck with your interesting and promising idea, FC ... :) -
Re: Quick System
I have exactly the opposite problem! I don't let too many people into my little kitchen, but anyone who sees in my fridge always tells me that it looks like a man's fridge! :unsure Shall we swap? ... ;)without me noticing its become a WOMANS fridge. you know FOOD,MILK and horror NO TINNIES -
Re: Does anyone on here make long term profit
Yes, I'm afraid I realised that too late! I am so used to people saying exactly what he said and meaning something completely different. I have spent a year of my life not only compiling a 130-page thread but answering really politely and really tactfully every possible question about the realities and practicalities of laying that has ever and can ever be asked in any online forum. I have also actually made twice as much as I have been able to show in the thread because of course I have been removing commission at 5% on huge daily turnover while paying about 2.2% myself (as one must, of course, and quite rightly so, and I'm not complaining about that at all, merely pointing out that it makes it all the more ironic when people say to me "Did you really make a shedload?") ... :\ For all these reasons, and perhaps the fact that English is (honestly!) my third language as well, I totally misunderstood George and overreacted. Hence my apology above. I still think it was a very strange thing for him to have to ask, though! Could he really have been expecting the answer to be "no, I made it all up"? Why not just say "Congratulations" and have done with it?! But that may be a "cultural difference" or something. I perhaps took his question more literally than he intended it ... :eek Anyway ... again, George; my apologies to you ... :$Maria I think you may have over-reacted. George is one of the good guys around here. I think he was saying "well done!" -
Re: Does anyone on here make long term profit
Then what gives you the right to ask me, out of the blue, how much money I earn? ... :eyesi don't know you either
The "forum of which I speak" was referred to in the original post, as you'll see if you look back at the previous page, George. And it's a forum rather closely affiliated to this one. And I was speaking of it (and in fact speaking at all!) only to answer your question ... :sad Never mind; life is too short for arguments about things like this. I apologise to you, George, if I over-reacted to what I saw as the inappropriateness of your questions. Good luck to you ... :)or the forum of which you speak -
Re: Does anyone on here make long term profit
Granted ... :lol But seriously, do you imagine that perhaps I've been lying consistently in the forum where I'm "global moderator" for a whole year and somehow falsifying my results for all that time, but that now in response to one casual question elsewhere from someone I don't know at all I'm suddenly going to say "No, actually I made the whole thing up, I have never actually bothered to lay any of the 4000+ horses I proofed there at all?" Because if not, why ask the question? Or is it for some reason not apparent that it's actually pretty rude? ... :tongue2Well excussssssssssssse you. :loon -
Re: Does anyone on here make long term profit
Sorry, I don't understand. Yet another cultural reference the blonde foreigner has missed, perhaps ... :( I am a mathematician and statistician and have been betting for 4 years and making a living only for the last year; I don't know if that makes the answer "yes" or "no", you may decide for yourself ... :)Maria - i would never ask a lady if she were a pro - not even in jest.
Do you imagine that perhaps I've been lying consistently in the forum where I'm "global moderator" for a whole year and somehow falsifying my results for all that time, but that now in response to one casual question elsewhere from someone I don't know at all I'm suddenly going to say "No, actually I made the whole thing up, I have never actually bothered to lay any of the 4000+ horses I proofed there at all?" ... :\But must admit i am curious - did you really win a shedload?
You're a bit late, George, and asking in a rather inappropriate place, too, don't you think? ... :eyesi'll need to find some pompom waving smilies if you have. -
Re: Does anyone on here make long term profit My views on tipsters are not secret at all ... but apart from that, I'm very sorry and embarrassed to say that I just don't answer questions about my selection criteria at all, ever. Please excuse me, Janus: I intend no impoliteness or disrespect, but I decided when I finally started posting them a year ago that it was "the only way" otherwise it would be impossible to know which questions to answer and which not; so I just don't, at all - sorry! ... :$ :$ :$
Tip From Another Forum.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Tip From Another Forum.
Indeed. That's exactly how it would look if someone just wanted to "ramp" the horse to make sure the price shortened a lot so that they could lock in their profit by laying off part of their longer-priced position, isn't it? ... ;)