Nathan147
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Posts posted by Nathan147
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Re: Europa League > Thurs 4th April [TABLE=width: 100%]
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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2]Chelsea V Rubin Kazan Chelsea are playing their 3rd game in 5 days and will have to juggle again with half an eye on what is a very important premier league clash on Sunday against Sunderland. They know 3 points will not come easy against a side playing for survival and for their new manager; I think this will mean a slightly compromised side tomorrow night. In the absence of Ba, Torres will be leading the line - this won't excite the Chelsea faithful too much. He is still capable of causing problems though and whatever 5 midfielders start behind him, they will have goals and killer passes in abundance. Chelsea will have most of the game and will create chances, but they will be vulnerable at the back too. Terry will likely start after missing out on Monday and he has great experience in Europe, but Bertrand will be left back and he could certainly be exposed by a side who have shown they can score goals against good sides this season. I do not really know much about them, but their results in this tournament have been very impressive and they will certainly be up for this. The worry for Chelsea fans is that the disparity in motivation could very much level the playing field - as it did at home to Sparta and away in Bucharest. In reality, Chelsea are a much better side and have home advantage - they could win this game in 2nd gear if they had to. If Chelsea are sluggish and Rubin Kazan start well (a very likely occurrence), it could be a frustrating night for Chelsea. Even if this does transpire though, I would still have them as favourites to win, due to the superior quality they possess. However, they have conceded in all 5 home games in Europe this season and that is certainly something to consider if you are thinking about overall goals, BTTS or handicap bets. I think it will be a close game, but whatever side Chelsea put out - they will have match winners all over the pitch. I think they will do enough to take a lead to Russia next week. Chelsea to win @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) I think that Coral are overestimating the chances of a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Chelsea. This has meant that the following two bets are just a bit too generously priced. I will be choosing at least one of them at small stakes alongside my main bet. Chelsea could very well concede, but if they hit top gear for long enough spells, 3 goals is a possibility as well. Chelsea to win (not to nil) @ 4.00 (Coral) Race to 3 goals: Chelsea @ 4.00 (Coral)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: England > Midweek > Barclays Premier League > 20-22 December
HmmmmI'm not a fan of playing on draws, but tomorrow I will make an exception. Everton-Swansea, draw 3.95@betfair and under 2.5 1.85@betfair. Huge odds for the draw if you ask me. After watching Evertons recent performances I really can't see that they would score more than 1 or maximum of two goals (if the face Bolton ;)) in a game. They lack creativity in the midfield and sheer scoring power up front. Cahill hasn't scored a goal this season and Saha isn't putting them away when he gets the odd chance. Leighton Baines is currently their most dangerous player at that says a lot. So in this game Swansea will have the same tactics as they had against Newcastle. They will have a lot of ball and Everton will have to fight to get the ball. So it will be a fight for the ball without so much creativity and thus should be lowscoring. Therefore my unders bet also. -
Re: England > Midweek > Barclays Premier League > 20-22 December
Because I wouldn't back them both and expect them both to come in. The simple logic here is, these are two decent bets that I am recommending, which, standing alone, have a good chance of coming in. I don't do correct scores, they are the type of bets the bookies love to lay, but yes, I see your point - if I was to back both thinking they were dead certs, then backing 1-0 correct score would be the better move.Maybe you can explain these bets to me, because I can't understand the logic here. Are you expecting both bets to win? Because the only way these bets both can win is if Everton wins 1-0 over Swansea and if you believe that why won't you play the correct score instead? -
Re: England > Midweek > Barclays Premier League > 20-22 December Everton to win by 1 goal @ 11/4 As has already been mentioned, Everton consistently fail to win in games that they are fully expected to win against weaker sides with poor away form. It sends shivers down my spine when I see them this short and you simply cannot justify backing them at 4/7 - yet I still expect them to win. Sadly though, so do the bookies and despite two successive odds on failures at home to Stoke and Norwich, surely they will be fired up to grab all three points against a side who have serious trouble scoring on the road. I do not expect a hammering though, so I think that the unders bet is also worth a stab at this price, considering how few goals there seems to be when these two play: Under 2.5 @ 4/5 Blackburn/Bolton Over 2.5 at 3/4 Not much needed to be said here, it is a common sense bet and there have already been some good points, well made above. Both teams ship goals, yet are capable of scoring. Wolves/Norwich Over 2.5 @ 4/5 Again, an obvious, common sense bet. It is well documented how infrequently Norwich fail to find the net, it is also well known that their defence, which has had two promotions in two seasons - probably isn't strong enough at the moment. Luckily for them though, they have players who can score and many teams below them seriously under-performing. I always fancy Wolves in these big homes games against sides around them, because in the last 2 years they have won these vital games and that has been a big factor in their continued survival. I was surprised to see them struggle to manage a draw at home to Swansea and actually lose at home to Stoke. I do however fancy them to get at Norwich tonight and get a big three points, so the following bet is also worth considering: Wolves to win not to nil @ 11/4 Arsenal shouldn't be odds on, so I am staying away from that game. Also, Liverpool are too short at Wigan. Even though they justify being odds on due to their good away form and Wigan's awful start to the season, they should not be as short as 1/2. Fancied both of these teams but not at these prices, the bookies have sucked all of the Christmas value out of these games.
Chelsea v Hull City - Sun 18th August
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Chelsea v Hull City - Sun 18th August Some good points already well made on both Hull's weakness up top and Chelsea's short price. However, there is certainly a case to be made that at 2/9, it is just about right. I would say the feel good factor among fans with the return of Mourinho will make a great occasion at the Bridge. Everyone will be up for it, players, manager and fans. The same can certainly be said for Hull, but in the current scenario, Chelsea will match those levels of motivation. We have essentially 4 strikers fighting for 1 position and about 10 midfielders for 5 positions. The competition is fierce. The players given the nod will be desperate to justify Jose's choice and will be playing at the top of their game. Mourinho's choice of line-up will be intriguing, but it will not make much difference to the gulf in class - it will be huge whoever is picked! Mourinho's home record is another positive indicator, as well as the fact he won every opening game in charge of Chelsea ( 3 times to nil) and always started well. Hull are a side who will try and keep it tight but have very little strike threat. They won many games by 1 goal last year and scored very few goals along the way. With things as they are, Hull City could not have been given a tougher game to start with, though I guess that may take the pressure of a little. I really cannot see any result other than a Chelsea win on Sunday. Hull finding the net is quite unlikely so 'BTTS - No' has its appeal, but I would sooner take the 'win to nil' as I am sure Chelsea will find the net with at least one of the many chances they are likely to create. With this in mind; along with the prohibitively short price, I am doing something I don't normally do - some correct scores. I only do correct scores when a team that is very likely to score at least two against a team that is unlikely to score, so I can dutch a few 'to nil' scorelines. This game definitely ticks all of the boxes. If Chelsea score early, they could open Hull up and hit 3 or 4 comfortably. This makes me inclined to dutch 3-0 and 4-0 respectively. Trouble is, if they don't score early, I would want 2-0 on side. Early season game are never ones to get too involved in, but I can only really see one outcome - a Chelsea win. Keep the stakes small, but I would suggest a speculative dutch on 2-0/3-0 or 3-0/4-0 2-0 @ 11/2 (BetVictor) 3-0 @ 13/2 (BetVictor) 4-0 @ 11/1 ((Betway)