[UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 14 February]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 14 February Leverkusen-Barca Over 46 booking points @ 2.5 Stan James I think odds are way too high for this, I expect a physical game of Leverkusen and Barca reacting to that. Leverkusen know very well that they only have a chance when they get a good result at home and they will do anything for it and won't give Barca an inch. And Barca themselves are no saints, they have a lot possession but to avoid counter-attacks they have no problems to foul hard and maybe we have some verbal conflicts as well. In the four Leverkusen games vs Chelsea and Valencia there were 50, 50, 50 and 60 booking points. Leverkusen averaged 30 booking points in those games. In the two Barca games vs Milan there were 50 and 95 booking points. Barca averaged 35 booking points in those games. I know one could talk about the other group games but it's hard to take those games into consideration when the opponents had no chance and didn't want negative headlines á la "They nearly killed Messi". Actually Plzen had one of those games with 5 yellow and 1 red card. Ref Craig Thomson averages 4.67 yellow and 0.23 red cards in 60 international games. http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=577&linkType=referee&contextType=stats

[NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)]

Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 11W-11L Magic @ 76ers 76ers -6,5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle Orlando lost 4 of the last 5 games with some ridiculous results. 76ers already with 12 home games, won 10. Orlando recently struggled, too many problems to talk about but the trend is your friend, I mean they even lost against the Hornets by 26, that's awful. Superstar D12 is doing anything to get away from that market. Hornets @ Heat Heat -11,5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle Heat with a b2b but those two teams are on two different levels. Heat are among the top 2-3 teams of the league, Hornets are the weakest team in the West. Home advantage, Wade is back, what else can they wish for? Not only a must-win but a 'must-blowout'.

[NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)]

Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 10W - 10L Magic @ Celtics Boston tonight without Rondo, Pietrus, Ray Allen, Dooling, Wilcox. Orlando should cover -5,5 @ 1.91 William Hill rather easily. Wizards @ 76ers 76ers -12,5 @ 1.91 William Hill We already had that bet two weeks ago. http://forum.punterslounge.com/f68/nba-week-3-mon-jan-9-a-125424/#post2091841 76ers won by 31 at home and by 13 in Washington, circumstances haven't changed much, especially at home I don't see 76ers having any problems with the Wizards.

[NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)]

Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 10W-9L Suns @ Bulls Suns +9,5 @ 1.9 Bet365 Watched Bulls yesterday without D-Rose when they lost vs Grizzlies by 16. They looked poor without him, not really because they're poor but because they're exhausted. Their schedule is ridiculous so far: in the last two weeks they played 3 B2B, 1 B2B2B, and tonight it's another B2B. There's still a question mark behind Rose, but from what I read it is very likely he'll miss this one, too. Suns only played 7 games in the last two weeks, only 1 B2B, and didn't play yesterday. Nash & Hill are 'back'. And the Suns actually looked quite good the last times they met the Bulls (even with Rose). However, small stakes only.

[NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)]

Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA11-12 / 9W-9L Dirk Nowitzki over 20.5 points @ 1.83 Bet365 Dirk is averaging only 17.7 PPG so far. Couple of reasons for that: He's playing less minutes in this lockout-season, he's taking less shots so the 'new' team can gel better (especially against the weak teams they just played), and Kidd was out for nine days. What I expect for tonight: He'll play big minutes (Lakers are not Kings/Bucks/...), he'll take more shots as their go-to-guy in a probable close game, and Kidd will find him in his spots. Before Kidd got injured in San Antonio Dirk averaged 16.4 FGA and 22.1 PPG. And while Kidd was absent Dirk averaged 9.8 FGA and 13.8 PPG. When they played in Boston Dirk played 38 minutes but took only 11 shots and it was a close game - with Kidd this would have never happened. And I don't expect sth. like that to happen tonight.

[NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9)]

Re: NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9) NBA 11-12 / 9W-8L Jazz @ Nuggets Nuggets -9,5 @ 1.85 Pinnacle I already wrote a lot about the Nuggets as I really like their roster, the way they play and the work of coach Karl. Maybe they'll struggle in the playoffs because they don't have a go-to-guy, but other than that they are young, fast and deep. They already played against the Jazz at home two weeks ago and won by 17, they won 6 of 7 home games, last game was against the Heat and they won by 13. So basically they can get a double digit win at home against every team, and because of their enormous bench (averaging 44 PPG) they usually don't slow down in 4th quarters. Jazz were a good pick yesterday and, as I wrote, are a solid team so far. But a) they're not on the same level as the Nuggets and b) probably rely too much on home advantage but that's something we need to explore over the season. On the road they lost against the Lakers by 25 and the Spurs by 15 (+Nuggets by 17), but won against the Warriors by 1 which is not too remarkable in my eyes. Nuggets should have fresh legs as they didn't play yesterday, Jazz on a b2b but it's 'only' the third game in five days, so they should be fine, too. Maybe a little advantage here for the Nuggets, add home advantage and general superiority and they should win by double digits.

[NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9)]

Re: NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9) NBA 2011-12 8W-8L Nets @ Jazz Jazz -7,5 @ 1.88 Pinnacle Jazz pretty solid so far, won 5 of 6 home games, had a nice five-game winning streak before they lost against the Lakers in overtime. That was three days ago, so they have fresh legs. For the Nets it's a b2b and the third game in four days. Last night they won against the Suns in Phoenix but Nash and Hill were out and D-Will had a massive game with 35 points (hitting 61%) and 14 assists, I rate him very high but he can't do that every night. In a weak East they're still one of the worst teams, are probably struggling with their chemistry (as D-Will is talking a lot about his frustration) and should be rather exhausted. I think we have good conditions here for a solid Jazz win.

[NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9)]

Re: NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9) NBA 11-12 7W-8L Wizards @ 76ers 76ers - 12,5 @ 1.91 Sportingbet Simple reasoning, 76ers are the best defensive team so far, Wizards are the worst offensive team. At home 76ers played and won against Pistons by 23 Raptors by 35 Pacers by 10 Kings by 27 None of those teams (especially not the Pacers) is as bad as the Wizards, well, maybe the Pistons. On the road Wizards played and lost against Hawks by 18 Bucks by 21 Celtics by 8 Magic by 18 Bulls (without Rose) by 14. So I hope that it won't be a big problem for the 76ers to win by such a margin when even teams like the Bucks did it. One could say a lot about the 76ers and their development under coach Collins, in one word: it is beautiful, 76ers are - without any big names - a great team and should be a force to reckon with in the rather weak East. No b2b.

[NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9)]

Re: NBA Week 3. (Mon. Jan 9) Nba 11-12 / 7W - 7L Magic @ Blazers Blazers -2.5 @ 1.85 Pinnacle Rose Garden has been a fortress so far, 6 home games, 6 wins (vs Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets...). It's a b2b for the Blazers but I still don't know how to rate this b2b stuff. I mean Lakers, OKC, Nuggets and Hawks all had b2b2b games and they won them all. I think it might be a bigger factor in a couple of weeks but right now teams should cope with it, especially at home in a normal b2b. Magic with fresh legs, won 2 of 4 road games (W @ Charlotte/Sacramento / L @ OKC/Detroit), always a force to reckon with. But what do they really rely on: Dwight and three point shooting. Take away the three pointers and it will be tough for them to compete here, and that's excactly what I expect the Blazers to do: they allow only 23.7% in three point shooting which is the league's best figure so far.

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) NBA 2011-12 7W-5L Wizards +3 @ 1.81 Pinnacle Spurs +6,5 @ 1.8 Pinnacle

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) NBA 2011-12 6W-4L Nuggets (6-2) @ Spurs (5-2) Nuggets +4,5 @ 1.93 Pinnacle I'm gonna stick with the Nuggets, it's a B2B but they handled the schedule quite well with their bench. Yesterday it was the same story, they stay close til the 4th quarter and then their depth kicks in and they just run people off the court, combined with good defense. They have a good combination to cope with the shortened schedule: they are young, fast, athletic, whatever you want - and they are deep. Losing Ginobili again is a huge blow for the Spurs, but credit to them, they've won the first two games without him: against the Warriors by 6 and against the Mavs by 22 (!). I think against the Warriors it was way closer than they wanted (down 5 after the 3rd) and against the Mavs, you know, that game was already decided after six or so minutes. The Spurs were killing them with threes (16-33 vs 1-19) and I think that just happens sometimes when an old, not-in-shape veterans team is playing its 6th game in 8 nights (like the Mavs). I don't know if Nuggets win but they should keep it close and I surely don't expect them to die by threes. ___ Bulls (7-1) @ Hawks (5-3) Bulls -4 @ 1.91 William Hill It's a tough schedule so far for a lot of teams and it's gonna be another B2B for the Bulls. But Hawk's schedule must have been the worst so far, they played four B2B games in the last 11 days, and tonight it's gonna be B2B2B. Plus yesterday they played 1 OT and the day before yesterday they played 3 OT. I know it's still early in the season but I just don't expect them to compete against the Bulls and against the schedule at the same time.

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) Heat-Hawks was a fun game to watch and the Miami Raptors:lol did a great job, but damn ...3OT and there went the money. Anyways: NBA 11/12 5W-4L Nuggets (5-2) @ Hornets (2-4) Nuggets -4,5 @ 1.91 Trading Paul was surely not a bad deal for the Hornets, everybody acknowledged the trade as good. But a) all the new players need time to gel, b) those players don't want to be there, at least it's hard to think of a superb locker room chemistry, c) they are weak either way. They had a good start in Phoenix and against Boston, but then they lost four consecutive games vs mediocre teams (Suns/Kings/Jazz/76ers). At home they lost vs the 76ers by 8 and vs the Suns by 15 which speaks volumes. Ariza (starter) is expected to miss the game. Nuggets are in my eyes one of the most underrated teams out there, I mean, everybody knows the West is wide open at the moment, but people tend to talk about Lakers, Clippers, OKC or Blazers (ok, they also ignore the Blazers). But I rate the Nuggets, their depth/enormous bench production very high. On the road they lost against the Blazers (that's not a shame) and against the Lakers (by 3, couldn't close out the game), other than that they've been overall convincing. Nene (starter) is a game time decision. Both teams with fresh legs. With their depth I see Nuggets as clear favourites. __ Might be good to check team news on time, Bulls @ Magic anyone? I read that Rose might not be available?!

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) NBA 11-12 4W-3L Lakers @ Trail Blazers Trail Blazers -2,5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle Blazers had a good start (4-1) with two must wins against the 76ers and Kings, a decent win against the stronger-than-expected Nuggets, a convincing double-digit win in OKC, and a rather close defeat against the Clippers on the road. Overall they have a very promising start to the season that just proves they can be a force in the Western Conference again. They gel well, play off each other, and have Aldrige, fun to watch them. Home advantage should be a factor in this, there were quite a few games in the last few years when the Lakers were buried at Rose Garden, even when they were reigning champs. And now they are everything but reigning champs, they're not what they used to be. 4-3 so far, but the only convincing games were the home games against Utah and the Knicks. In every other game they were struggling, lost both games on the road (by 9), even Sacramento looked like a playoff team against them. If they want to compete here they'll need to show their seasons best performance with Kobe shooting 50% and Bynum scoring 25-30 points or something like that. And I think that's not likely to happen tonight at Rose Garden. ____ Also: there are rumours that Lebron and Wade can't play tonight, at least they won't be at 100%. Wade with his foot injury and Lebron with a sprained ankle. Therefore I like Hawks +2,5 @ 1.85. They have just beat the Heat by 8 in Miami, today with the home advantage, fresher legs and against a weakened Heat team. Plus Heat with the second B2B in five days.

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) Nets @ Celtics Celtics -11,5 @ 1.86 Nets are already one of the worst teams in the league (1-5) and tonight Williams and Humphries will be out which is a huge blow for them, it will be a very weak starting line-up. Celtics back on track with three consecutive wins, home advantage and the opportunity to really focus on this game - there was no game yesterday and there's none tomorrow. Warriors @ Spurs Warriors +7,5 @ 1.95 Basically this bet is about Ginobili's injury and a therefore weakened Spurs team. He's so important for them, with a PER of 35 and 0.392 WS/48 so far, it's incredible. There are already discussions if they can make the play-offs without him. I don't know if they can, but I know that they'll need to figure out how to play without him and that it's not gonna be easy in those first couple of games.

[NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.)]

Re: NBA Week 2 (Mon Jan 2.) Bucks @ Nuggets Bucks +5,5 @ 1.84 Pinnacle Under normal cirumstances I wouldn't play this one, but for Denver it's the third game in three days, B2B2B, after two tough games against the Lakers, while Bucks haven't played since Friday. Plus Bucks actually had a good start to season. Small stakes for me. Edit: OKC @ Mavs OKC -2,5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle Watched Mavs yesterday and they were really weak. Now B2B for them and OKC with fresh legs. Wouldn't be surprised about a double digit blowout. Mavs are the weakest Champion team I can remember. I have to play those bets until the market understands that the Mavs are done.

[NBA Week 1]

Re: NBA Week 1 Nets @ Hawks Hawks -11,5 @ 1.93 They've just played against each other, Hawks won 106-70 on the road. That was a b2b game for the Nets and tonight it's another one minus home advantage. In their season opener Nets beat Wizards 90-84 at home after being down 37-45 at HT, Hawks beat Wizards b2b 101-83 (85-64 after the 3rd quarter) at home. Hawks were convinving in both wins and with fresh legs, the home crowd and a so far disappoting opponent (Nets just lost 78-94 in Orlando) it should be another convincing win imho.

[NBA Week 1]

Re: NBA Week 1 Dallas @ OKC OKC -5,5 @ 10/11 several bookies We knew that Dallas would struggle defensively as soon as Chandler left to New York. But their defensive display against Miami and Denver was even worse than one could imagine. I think it'll take a couple of weeks to somehow fix that. And with Dirk and Odom they have two key players who obviously need more time to step up their offensive output. OKC on the other hand had a great start into the season, 3-0. This is their fourth game in 5 days but legs should still be fresh, they have home advantage und show a good form, clear favourites in my eyes.

[NBA Week 1]

Re: NBA Week 1 Heat -4 @ 10/11 several bookies I think the Mavs really will struggle defensively. They haven't had a chance to find the right chemistry yet. What they showed in the play-offs, how they organized the zone defense, I think that was very special (especially against the Heat), but they have new faces, they've lost their defensive anchorman (Chandler) and watching them against OKC in the preseason games was kinda surprising and I learned that they'll need time. Of course, it will take time till Heat get back to full strength, too. But they have the three super-friends and are less dependent on a well-functioning team than the Mavericks. I wouldn't be surprised if they win by 10-15.

[Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December

...3 point gap between them and 2 spot in that moment' date=' Greuther Furth...[/quote'] I think you got that wrong, if Frankfurt win: Frankfurt 42p Dusseldorf 42p Furth 40p Anyway, I will go for the draw based on how Frankfurt and St Pauli played against the other Top 5 teams, @ 3.54 Pinnacle. Results: Sorry, forgot one game: Furth-Eintracht 2:3

[FIFA World Club Championships]

Re: FIFA World Club Championships Starting XI: Valdes, Dani Alves, Pique, Puyol, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Thiago, Iniesta, Cesc y Messi. (either Keita or Thiago)

[Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December I don't see much value in the odds for tonight's match, I think bookies/markets got it pretty right. I'll try something in the goalscorers market. Lasogga anytime goalscorer @ 3.4 Betfair. He has mostly flown under the radar as whole Germany is talking about fancier youngsters like Gotze and Reus. But Lasogga is probably the greatest young striking talent in Germany. 6 goals, 3 assists in 13 games, not bad for a 19-years old in his first Bundesliga season. The main reason why I pick this one is that he had two huge games against his former clubs Wolfsburg (1 goal, 2 assists) and Leverkusen (2 goals). He also played for Schalke and is from that special region (Ruhr valley).

[Spain - La Liga - 10-11 December]

Re: Spain - La Liga - 10-11 December El Clásico Over 65 booking points @ 5/6 Victor Chandler I think we all know the character of this game and how it has developed since Mourinho is in charge. Here are some stats to underline that. Mourinho's Real played 7 times against Barca: Real: 29 yellow cards (avg. 4.14) 1 double-yellow (avg. 0.14) 5 red cards ( avg. 0.71) avg. booking points: 64.26 Barca: 21 yellow cards (avg. 3.0) 2 red cards (avg. 0,29) avg. booking points: 37.14 Total booking points per game: 101.4

[UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December pretty much a b-team: Amelia, De Sciglio, Bonera, Mexes, Taiwo, Emanuelson, Ambrosini, Nocerino, Seedorf, Pato, Robinho.

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday 1st December]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 1st December

Twente Enschede vs Fulham Twente top the group with 10 points , whith Fulham 3 points behind.Twente have already qualified for the next round. Last two games that Twente played in their domenstic league were 2 draws , with modest opponents.I think fatigue maybe cought up with them since they are using almost the same 11 players every game.Twente`s manager said that he will rest some of the 1st team players in this game. Fulham on the other hand comes to Holland with their manager Martin Jol in a special spot beeing an ex Twente player. They looked very solid over the weekened drawing with high flying Arsenal. A draw wont bother Fulham either since they host Odense at their home ground to decide who will go through. The superior motivation of Fulham should see them not losing tonight . My pick is : Twente vs Fulham X2

I like the under @ 1.83 Pinnacle Fulham definitely know how to park the bus on the road. 2/2 unders in EL away games (5/6 incl. qualification games) and 6/7 in PL away games. And just like you said, they shouldn't have any higher motivation to go for the win.

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday 1st December]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 1st December Small stakes on Klose to score @ 28/17 Unibet Lazio will play with full force, they need the win, Klose will have the best possible supporting cast. He scored in 6 of 11 Serie A games (in 4 of 5 away games). Scored in 1 of 2 EL games (in 1 of 1 away games). Obviously he doesnt like Stadio Olimpico:lol. Vaslui can compete offensively on good days, thats why I dont like the odds on Lazio, but their defense aint good enough to keep players like Klose away from the box for 70+ minutes.