Jazzy Jim
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Posts posted by Jazzy Jim
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Re: Germany > 2 Bundesliga > Fri 3/08 - Mon 6/08 I had the good fortune to see Kaiserslautern v Freiburg last season and although their approach work was good, they missed several chances. From what I saw in other games on the box this was the story of their season. Now relegated they are quite a big fish in Bundesliga 2 with large home crowds, however it's first day of the season and as we all know anything can happen...for purely that reason alone Union Berlin @ 5.01 with Pinnacle (2 units) is too good to turn down.
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Re: Betting research sites. PreMatches. It's stat heavy but if it's a league fixture I find the data invaluable. Last 30 game form, head to head records, elo ratings etc. Lesser info but still helpful are Soccerway & WSN. But the best of course is this site. :notworthy
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Re: Norway > Tippeligaen > 2012
Ha ha I can't claim credit for the term 'mug punt', that comes from this forum's thusprider! Although I've personally done well out of correct score betting everyone on betting forums and advice will tell you long-term it won't work as both maths and value are against you. The bookies take extra juice from correct score markets, that said I know it works for you Brooke so I won't talk you out of it, you may well have an edge. I don't know the Norwegian or Swedish leagues at all, just following my usual methods over the summer but so far I've found results in these two countries and also in Ireland to be erratic. Not doing very well this month at all. Example top of the league Elfsborg failed to beat 11th. Mjallby at home on Sunday, everything suggested a comfortable home win.LOL why is it a mug punt? I haven't really looked into this league much but I have been dabbling in all sorts of leagues recently with a fair amount of success. I am interested to know what you think of this one though if you know it well. Hehe I like that term 'mug punt' though, I might steal that one for my future writings :) -
Re: Norway > Tippeligaen > 2012 I can normally find some value in 12X but can't find it with Odd Grenland v Valerenga. Home side shade it as they are on better form, not that that means anything in Scandinavia. Record over the last ten for this fixture is 3-3-4, % success rate 57% v 55%. Tight. Valerenga odds closing in and Grenland lengthening but not by enough. Mug punt of 1 unit for HW 1-0 @ 8.5 Bet 365
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Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Good luck with this, draws are without doubt my worst performing area in 12X. Will be interested to see what you come up with.
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Re: One team strategy I'm also still learning the ropes, but if you do go down the one team road I'd suggest picking an unfancied side that will actually do well. I would imagine for example that following Wigan or West Brom last season you would have probably made a small amount. My Premier League hunch is that West Ham will finish in the top half and you could do worse than follow them. On the flip side betting against Liverpool and Arsenal has been profitable for me, because they are well-followed (with money and fans) big clubs who usually mess up on the road. I won't bet against the Gunners this coming season however, as I think their signings so far can only make them more competitive. You could choose Northampton from League 2 if you wanted to. :)
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Roy Keane suggests England have underestimated Italy, maybe the players haven't but certain sections of the media and some fans have. Nothing wrong with being patriotic and would like to see England make the semi-finals, but as there's money involved it needs more analysis. So during this tournament England have a better record, and in fact over the last thirty games...73% success rate compared to Italy's 60%. However discounting the friendlies and looking at the qualifying and Italy's performances look far more impressive, in fact they haven't lost a competitive game since Slovakia in World Cup 2010, undefeated in thirteen competitive games, and in those 13 they have conceded only four goals!:eek Over the same period England have conceded 8 goals in 11 games. Also I think it's fair to say that Spain & Croatia are stronger opponents than both the French and the Ukraine. H2H is pretty meaningless in this particular game I believe as both sides don't meet very often, even so for the record over the last 10 it reads 2-2-6 in Italy's favour. Overall agree worth most that this could well be a draw, although I make this 41.1% chance of Italy victory, and considering the prices on offer, this. Italy to win in extra-time @ 13 Bet 365 (special in-play free bet offer) Will see how the first 15 minutes pan out before placing the free bet but already looking at backing Italy in the 90 minutes, or the draw.
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Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 You won't get any arguments from me Mustafa, always find your reasoning helpful. Anyway, Germany have won their last 14 consecutive competitive matches, conceding 11 goals in those. Notably that includes a goal apiece versus Holland & Denmark, 2 versus Uruguay. Worryingly 2 against Austria. Still I believe the Greeks will need to rely on more than set-pieces to break down the Germans. Great prices on the draw and a Greek win, I love betting on the outsider (and in this tournament it's paid off) but only when the stats and my instinct tell me it's possible, not in this case I'm afraid. Germany to win to nil @ 2.1 Ladbrokes (2pts)
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Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? Must admit I went with the conspiracy nutters but thankfully with just a small stake. Credit is due to both Spain and Croatia for playing the game with integrity.
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Re: Italy v Republic of Ireland June 18th With news suggesting that Balotelli has a knee injury and may not feature, added to the fact that Trappatoni will want to exit Euro 2012 with some salvaged pride I'm not expecting a flood of goals in this game, in fact I'm expecting Eire to perform as many thought they would do prior to the tournament, ultra-defensive and stingy at the back. Expecting some fringe players to feature for Ireland and they will be keen to impress, this but the outrageous prices on both an Ireland victory (11/1) and draw mean I'll plump for... Draw @ 6 Hills (3/10)
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Re: Croatia v Spain June 18th I have little faith in humanity. Correct Score 2-2 @ 6 Ladbrokes (2/10)
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Re: Denmark v Germany June 17th It's a dangerous game to play keeping one eye on what is going on elsewhere, and as mentioned above it's not the German way to 'throw' a game, well not one that runs the risk of them not finishing top. That said they have no need to extend themselves, and should it be the case that it is nil-nil in this game and Holland are leading comfortably, can it be said that either team would go all out to score a goal? I'm not so sure, but not brave enough to put anything but a tiny stake. Draw @ 3.8 Bet365 (2/10)
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Re: Portugal v Netherlands June 17th It's funny how a couple of poor performances / results can change opinions on how good a team is. A lot of people were saying Holland were a good priced outsider to win the whole tournament. Walking round the lake this morning had time to reflect and I believe we are due a good performance from Holland, they have nothing to lose and Portugal also really need to attack, they can't rely on what is going on in the other game. Had this been the first game of the tournament most people would be saying Holland, I don't think 2 games is enough to judge this side especially as they dominated the game against the Danes, with this in mind I think the best outright price is... Holland 2.63 @ Stan James (4pts)
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Re: Sweden v England - June 15 Looking at the stats below they point to a draw. The Swedes apparently have off-the field problems with disharmony in the dressing room, however the English radio rumour-mill suggests that although both will start, Parker & Gerrard have injury niggles, if either of these players are withdrawn there is no-one with the relevant experience to fill that role, apart from possibly Milner. Last 38 Game Success Rating - Sweden 71% v England 74% Euro 2012 Record inc Qualifying Sweden 40% Draw 20% England 40% Last 10 Competitive Games Sweden 40% Draw 20% England 40% Head To Head (all) Sweden 28.6 % Draw 42.8 % England 28.6% So why is all the above important...because Sweden DNB 2.75 with Ladbrokes. I'll chance my arm with that.
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Re: Euro 2012 Livescore Thread Oh! drat there goes another. Weak goal to concede.
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Re: Ukraine v Sweden > June 11 Optimism for Ukraine may come from home advantage and a surprise defeat for the visitors in Hungary, but aside from that what with the food poisoning scare and Sweden's good qualifying record I can't resist the 'away' side. Not overly impressed with the squad selections of Voronin (erratic) and Shevchenko (one tourney too many?) either, although Yarmolenko is a danger. Sweden @ 3.1 Betfred (3pts)
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Re: Poland v Greece > June 8 46 yellows & 5 reds in seven games!!! In future will click on the referee stats just to check for rogue nutters like Spain's finest. :)
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Re: Poland v Greece > June 8
With a card happy referee who can rule it out...not for me though not even with your wallet. Greece have had a few set-pieces and haven't come close to even a half-chance. Surprise us please Mustafa I never look at refs stats.geez...greece is 50/1 here.. -
Re: Poland v Greece > June 8 Well what can you say, you spend hours of analysis and then a soft red card throws it all out...Greece are now 33/1 with Lads at half-time.
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Re: France v England > June 11 It surprised me but over the last thirty internationals (friendlies included) England have a 77% success rate compared to France's 66%. Looking at the group qualifiers, the recent head to head record and goals scored statistically I make this really too close too call. My gut football instinct is that the quality of France can nick it but the figures point to a draw (39.7% chance), and if the players can buy into what Hodgson wants to achieve, despite missing the experience of Rio, Wayne & Fat Frank I feel it's not beyond them to grind that out. Draw @ Betfred 3.2 (5pts)
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Nov 14-15
Welldone fella-pleased for you!:nanaIt was 203-1 I think! -
Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 14-16 October Dortmund have an appalling record at Werder Bremen having won there just once in the last 9 years. Also this season Bremen are on fire with a maximum 4 wins out of 4. They have a few players out tomorrow night so the mind says this should be a draw, but the value says Werder to win at 2.95 (BWin)
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Re: England > Weekend > League 2 > 14-15 October
Hi, hope you guys don't mind me sticking my oar in. I follow Northampton and with fans favourite Adebayo Akinfenwa out injured with a fractured jaw, I can't personally see Town getting a victory at Vale Park, IMHO I can't see who will score the goals without him to batter the opposing defenders. Mickey Adams is said to be very confident that his team will win, last season we got a draw up there and the performance was a real backs to the wall against the promotion chasers, for this reason I am going to back the draw again at 3.5 (Ladbrokes).Port Vale-Northampton Over 2.5 1.847 Pinnacle 4/10 Nice odds here, should be much lower. Port Vale had 6/7 overs at home (4 even went above 4.5 goals!). Northampton 5/6 overs away. Both to score looks very likely as well as both like to score and concede. Last 11 home matches P. Vale always scored, and so did Northampton last 12 away...
Next Everton Manager
in Premier League Predictions
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Re: Next Everton Manager I'm avoiding this like the plague, although I know one guy from work who put £10 on Tony Pulis at 100/1 before he had departed from Stoke. This next manager market is a real loser for me also.