burlingtonberty
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Posts posted by burlingtonberty
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Re: Flexi boxed trifectas and First 4 bets ?? Boxing is expensive. Here are two good systems for scrounging the pool: Fixed winner: A / B-C / B-C A / B / C-D A / C-D / B One fixed place horse: A-B / A-B / C-D A-C / A-C / B-D The big problem is we are being hustled when we bet trifectas. The payout is small but also the percentage payout is kept secret, as we found out only recently. In case tote / bookmaker companies wish to deny this, they have been invited to do so but they do not respond.
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Re: Questions about pick-6 Emails unanswered.
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Re: Questions about pick-6 Here goes the email I made to totesport: Dear Sir/Mme I have two questions to put to you and I need your help. The first one concerns horse racing game pick-6, pick-4, placepot and similar. If I have s system cosisting of many lines, is there a mechanism to send it to you without typing the lines one by one ? I can make such systems and also reduce them into equivalent smaller full perm systems, but in either case it is time consuming and also errors may occur. The other question is about the dividend percentages for the various types of horse race betting. What are they ? Using mathematical formula, I can work out the win bet and also the exacta bet (in some race courses from the price tables displayed). For Trio-tricast it is impossible because the tables are too big and are never displayed in full. In any case I believe we should know what are the exact percentages divided out for each type. yours sincerely .................... We shall see when they answer. Betfred do not seem to have anything to do with horses. Also I got a message "threat blocked" while trying to open one of their urls. But, to my sorrow, there seems to be a deep problem. Initially my interest was to see what happens with the pick-6 systems, but then I looked into divedends also and it looks like almost everywhere they are hiding the dividend percentages of the exotic games. That is, not only lower percentages but also hidden !! That practice is a tax offense also, is n't it. The French as I dicovered are hiding them (their site is http://www.pmu.fr, the "paris mutuel urbaine" as they call it).
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Re: Questions about pick-6
Asked one of your racing journalists 6 years ago ! He said the same thing "must be somewhere, I think it's about so big !". Reasonably excusable when one is a punter and cares only for win bets, but I doubt they publish it. But it's unlawful. It's like going to work and the boss telling you "we shall see about your wages - maybe we 'll pay you - somewhere from 10 to 20 pounds - if also we have money ...".Ive seen the percentage's mentioned before but cant remember the exact figure but thought it is around 28. I would imagine if you looked hard enough you would find the info I know its out there somewhere. -
Re: Where to start? For the punter, the study of horses and the run-up to the decision making moment is made up of cycles: - Study form - Paddock-going down - Prices Many form book editors and tipsters like to hide this fact. Everything you need to know is in my book they like to say, but it's not true. There is no firm rule as to which race to chose and which to un-chose.
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Re: Questions about pick-6 Interesting. I will try them. 28% is fairly big hike i.m.o. For singles we start from 0% betfair + up to 5% commission, then 7-8% or thereabouts in the others. In pick 6 they crunch away the dividend. Also the tote should publish the house percentages for the various types of wager. But I don't see them aywhere and I think that's illegal. In the win pool the take away percentage can be worked out mathematically from the race card itself, but what about pick-6, trio and even exacta ? You don't see the full tables, because they are big, therefore you don't know what it is you are betting on ! That's as illegal as they make them. What do the UK compliance authorities think of it ? In Greece -the country of monopoly prohibitionists- we have at least won this small battle and the low requires dividend percentages to be published.
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Re: Questions about pick-6 I 'm sure I queried totesport once but no reply. What happens if I want to play say 50 lines. Do I have to type them one by one ? And what percentage do they pay ? Used to be 80% here. Now it's 75% but also with tax on top, so it's down to 63%-65%. What's the unit price ? Depending on the payout percentage, if you bet after a jackpot the pool usually does n't increase dramatically, so it is effectively super-fair. It's always a longshot game but it's the only super-fair, under conditions, type of game of chance. I mean if the pool is 10,000 euros and after the jackpot it becomes 400,000 euros, then the jackpot is engulfed and practically vanishes. But if the 10,000 euros become 20,000 euros then it counts. It does depend of course where the winning line is located in the "probability spectrum" of lines. Most people think of themselves as probable unique winners, so they want the 400,000 but the opposite is more likely true. I think the ideal is when the total pool size doubles after the jackpot but not more. It's not as impossible as it looks. Yesterday I won pick-4. With 30 lines at 0.50 each, 85 euros. The corresponding pick-6 was 550 euros after tax, but I reckon I needed some 1000 lines to get to that. Winnings vary from day to day of course and the number of lines needed to win also varies from individual to individual. In theory a pick of 6 winners is 25 times more difficult than a pick of 4 winners. Some lucky winners exist of course. The record here is 450,000 euros for pick 6 and 550,000 euros for pick 9. Pick 9 looks crazy and it's not popular but sometimes they find it. Somebody won 65,000 euros with 40 cents, the last money in his pocket. The remaining 10 cents, to complete the price of one entry, was donated by the shopkeeper himself ! But, as rumour has it, that one wasted it all and he is now back asking the same shopkeeper for 10 cents.
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Re: Questions about pick-6 "Placed" is 1st-2nd or depends on race type ? Can you name some bet sites that accept such bets ?
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Exactly what bets of this type are there in UK ? We have in Greece score-4, score-6, score-9, in which you have to find the winners of consecutive races. In USA they have score-3 (or pick-3) also. Can one bet those online ? What is the dividend percentage ? Also when I have a multi-line system, or many f.p. systems, can I upload them in batch file ?
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Re: Another stupid idea from racing for change There are the trifecta-superfecta punters who want to know. The commentators are excused, by me, to miss the third-fourth horse and wait for the replay before announcing it, but they should more or less call those as well. The entire card, I don't think so - it's boring.
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Arc de triumph What made some great impression to me today was the disparity between French market - UK market. In the last race UK backed Roatan who won while the French backed a Peslier ridden horse, then no 12 I think it was. Why so ? It was Peslier day today in France. Flop after flop after flop after flop.
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Re: Chilledtothebone It's the crazy substitute bet system (ODIE - Greece) causing the problem. But the withdrawal went unnoticed. Bets were substituted after the race and bets on the number 8 (Chilledtothebone) counted as bets on number 7 (Out of the Storm). With 8 gone, 7 was the lowest priced horse in ODIE tote, so 8s become 7s they say. But 7 did not win. The no 3 won (Lakrise Star). It's a crazy rule but it was also unlawfully applied in this case, because the withdrawal was missed by the system before the race was off. Anyone in the world would admit the mistake and refund except state approved vagabonds ODIE. There is no IBAS and not even a complaints office as such. Sure you can talk to someone if you insist but such a thing as "complaints office" does not exist in that company. When the company's consumers chart was drawn in 2008, as is the legal requirement for public companies, they cheated and passed it under the counter. When some other offense was committed by them, this time covered by the statutes of the consumer chart, they denied that chart's existence and offered the excuse that the "final signature by the government was not put", at the time the offense took place !
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Re: Chilledtothebone
The jockey was Kieren Fallon and the trainer Mrs L. Stubbs. Where can they be emailed ? I am interested in the circumstances out of curiosity. Also to explain how the tv missed it. I 'm not 100% sure about that but I think the tv missed it.Not sure fella but one thing is for sure, if he never came out the stalls to race getting your cash back should not be an issue. Why don't you email the Trainer, most will reply. -
Re: Chilledtothebone I know he was withdrawn. Why I 'm having an issue is a long story. My question, if anyone remembers, was what happened and at what time. He did exit the paddock though and moved towards the start. That much I saw.
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Hello Can anyone comment about the circumstances of Chilledtothebone's withdrawal, on Thursday 29/9, 6.10, Kempton ? Chilledtothebone was the race favourite at 2 to 1, looked very smart in the going down but next thing we saw in RUK tv, they left without him. I 'm having a sort of issue regarding refunds, but firstly I don't understand how it happened. TV showed nothing. In the Racing Post card he was moved to last with bars replacing the prices, seconds before the off. But what really happened ? Played up ? Jockey unseated ? Pain ?
Horse racing software
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Horse racing software The departure point of horse racing prediction software is the speed line. If you don't have software that generates speed line it's no good. It pays to know workouts, jockeys, bad starters, speed duels and some other auxiliary info, but the departure point is the speed line. Split times are also useful, like in USA. I don't believe in split times as much as I used to, except when they point to extreme cases, e.g. a horse regularly slow out of the gates and the distance being 5f. But also horses do not always run the same distance. So split times help you evaluate accurate speed ratings independent of distance (for this reason UK race courses should introduce them and install the necessary equipment). Another useful approach is the "logarithmic pool of journalists". That tends to work. It's boring because you don't want to know nothing about horses when doing that and you are only registering opinions, but it generally works. If I can help some people with those and if some people can help me, they are welcome to respond.