oscillatewildly
-
Posts
41 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by oscillatewildly
-
-
Re: Premier League Value - Defying The Odds Liverpool Clean Sheet bet won. Bank is £97, plus the £3 invested in Spurs match. I had planned to back Arsenal on the AH but odds drifted a bit. I feel the 2/1 on offer by SJ on RVP AGS is good value, so I've taken that instead. £3 on RVP AGS @ 2/1 (SJ)
-
Re: Premier League Value - Defying The Odds £3 on Sunderland +1.25 @ 1.95 (SJ) to win £2.85
-
Re: Premier League Value - Defying The Odds Can't quite believe that finished 2-0. No exaggeration - there should have been at least 6 goals, if not more. Liverpool Clean Sheet @ evs (bet365). Should be £2.91 (3% of £97) but I placed this before the 1st bet lost, so just did £3 again. Bank: £97 Will be £100 again if this wins, or £94 if Villa score.
-
Re: Premier League Value - Defying The Odds I will write explanations of my bets when I have time, but as the match has just kicked off on my first bet, I will not. QPR v Man Utd - over 2.5 goals @ 1.8 (stanjames) 3% = £3 to win £2.40
-
So I've gone through all my bets in what is almost the end of the first half of the season in many leagues across Europe. To my surprise, the English Premier League has been my most profitable market, despite the common belief that it is one of the most difficult leagues to find value in. Unlike lower leagues, where lots of factors are often not taken into consideration by bookies, any news that breaks in the Premier League is immediately factored in to the odds, making finding value almost impossible. However, betting on lower leagues has its disadvantages. E.g. standard of officials, state of pitches, possibility of fixing, condition of players etc etc. As a small experiment, I am going to devote a very small bank to just EPL matches, to explore the possibility of finding long-term value and profit. I will try any market (usually AH, goals, corners, cards) and see if I am still in profit by the end of the season. Starting with £100, I will operate a staggered staking system. 5% = odds below 1.8 3% = odds between 1.8 and 3 1% = odds above 3
-
Re: Sunday Special (£50 - £4000 in 4 bets) 0-0 at HT but Betis collapse in 2nd half. And thus ends the shortest glory thread in the history of PL. *walks ashamedly away, head bowed*
-
Re: Netherlands - Eredivisie - 25-27 November 1 thing I've learn from watching Eredivisie this season is that Feyenoord are the most inconsistent team in the league, and I wouldn't touch them with a 10 foot barge pole! Waalwijk drew with Groningen last week and I would put Feyenoord and Groningen on similar lines.
-
Odds of this happening are about as good as Wigan winning the league this season, but hey. I like these sort of challenges on a lazy Sunday! Start with £50. 4 bets at around 2/1 takes you to just over £4000. £50 @ 2/1 = £150 £150 @ 2/1 = £450 £450 @ 2/1 = £1350 £1350 @ 2/1 = £4050 Only 4 bets! Should be easy... 1st bet: £50 on under 1.5 goals in Betis v Sociedad @ 3.25 to return £162.50 (just over 2/1 but not far off)
-
Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 26
Happy days! :okKettering v Grimsby - GRIMSBY WIN @ 2.6 Sorry for quoting like that, but to read that and still be able to get 2.6 on Grimsby is a must-bet for me. I've been negative reading stories about Kettering for a few weeks and this has been reflected in their poor form. Grimsby have a poor away record but should be able to take advantage of the situation; they are also unbeaten in 5, having just won a massive match against Port Vale in the FA Cup. They have also won the last 3 meetings with Kettering. -
Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 26 Kettering v Grimsby - GRIMSBY WIN @ 2.6
Sorry for quoting like that, but to read that and still be able to get 2.6 on Grimsby is a must-bet for me. I've been negative reading stories about Kettering for a few weeks and this has been reflected in their poor form. Grimsby have a poor away record but should be able to take advantage of the situation; they are also unbeaten in 5, having just won a massive match against Port Vale in the FA Cup. They have also won the last 3 meetings with Kettering.Kettering boss Mark Stimson has said he will be under "extreme pressure" to field a side on Saturday, should a planned player exodus take place. Poppies chairman Imraan Ladak believes as many as 10 players could leave Nene Park by Thursday's loan deadline. That would leave Stimson short of options for Saturday's Blue Square Bet Premier visit of Grimsby. "If 10 go, it does put us under extreme pressure to fill the side on Saturday," Stimson told BBC Radio Northampton. "We've got some youth players registered and some boys who've been coming from up and down the country. But we'll have to have a discussion with them." Imraan Ladak Kettering Town chairman Strikers Moses Ashikodi and Adam Cunnington have already left the club after Ladak placed every member of the squad on the transfer list. And with the team having failed to receive their most recent wages in full, Stimson said numbers have been low in training, as players cannot afford to travel. "There were four there on Tuesday," he said. "It's down to not being able to get in for financial reasons or knocks. Obviously, as a manager you try to plan and it doesn't help with such low numbers." Ladak had already highlighted his frustration with the current squad. On Wednesday he told the Kettering Evening Telegraph: "It has now got to the point where I am not willing to supplement the players' wages for what they give us. "Four or five should be going in the next 24 hours and another four or five will be in the 24 hours after that. "They have decided to fight with each other and lunge in and try to injure other players. They have decided not to train hard enough, not eat the right foods and go out at night. It's their fault and I am not willing to pay their money and the football club can't." The Poppies chief added the club's finances are in a "serious situation" and he will consider offers to sell up. "There have been bits of interest in the club from external parties," he said. "We are happy to discuss anything with anyone in the best interests of the club. "We have never officially said the club is up for sale. We have just said that if there is a party that can come in and do more then we would talk to them. "There is sponsorship money that I know is owed. If enough players go and we get the money then we will be OK. "The club is not finished or anything like that. But it is in a serious situation." Meanwhile, the Poppies have added former loanee MK Dons striker Charlie Collins on a one-month deal. -
If someone could add the odds then please do, as I'm not sure how. It's early, I know, but this is the next set of PL fixtures and I am going on holiday on Wednesday so am placing some bets early. Some juicy odds this round imo. Sunderland v Fulham - Sunderland -0.25 @ EVS Best bet of the round imo. Sunderland replaced half their squad in the summer and have taken time to gel. However, in recent games they look to be playing as more of a unit, and I see a good run right round the corner, with a fairly generous set of fixtures coming up. They will see this as a great chance to get 3 points, against a Fulham side who we all know are bad away from home. As awlays, Sunderland have injuries, but Westwood has stepped in to goal and done well, and I feel they have a solid back 4. In O'Shea and Brown they have 2 defenders who have played at the highest level for many seasons, and to sign them both was a coup for Steve Bruce. My only worry is that with Wickham injured, they will again be light up-top. However, Bendtner is more than able to play alone up front, and Sessegnon offers good support. Fulham do not convince me 1 iota under Jol. He is a average coach, and a worse manager. He has no man management skills, which is clearly evident if you look at players' reactions and comments in all his managerial roles. He has already had a bust-up with Zamora, and several players don't look happy. When the dressing room is lost, it is very difficult for the manager to turn the form around. Their display against Spurs was spirited, and they were arguably lucky to not come away with a draw, but this isn't enough to convince me. Their away win against Wigan shouldn't be focused on too much, as Wigan are probably the worst PL side ever, barring Derby in 2007. Their away form is truly awful, and most of their wins in the past couple of seasons have been dead rubbers, so should largely be ignored. Taking all this into consideration, I would price Sunderland at about 1.9. Odds of 2.3 are available (!), but for me the odds of evens on the -0.25 line cannot be ignored. I will take this with max stakes. Famous last words, but I just cannot see Fulham winning this, and a half-stakes loss would not a disaster if it ends a draw. Everton V Wolves For what it's worth, a lay of Everton (or Wolves on the AH) look a good bet...Everton are ridiculously short for a team that can't score! Wolves +1 at 17/20 has definite value. These odds are based on Everton's historical success in recent seasons... there is no reason for the odds on Everton to be 4/7! Norwich V Arsenal Arsenal's odds have some value IMO. 1.75 with Ladbrokes probably won't last; Norwich are a good team and may stay up, but their defence is too weak to keep out RVP and the rest. They have conceded a lot already this season, and have begun to show signs of their good run ending. If you remember that a lot of this Norwich team were playing in League 1 until recently, then the odds look even juicier. I expect this to drop to 1.65 by next week. Fingers crossed there will be no injuries for my selections in the international break!
-
Re: England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November I live in Chelmsford so know more about their team than most people... they have a good team and should be promoted this season. If they don't then it is a failure, as they have several players who could/should be playing in the BSP. Their home form has been strange but hopefully that ended in their last home league game, when they beat Eastleigh 3-0. I don't know as much about Dorchester, but they are definitely a class below imo. They have had away victories, but they have been against other poor sides. Akurang, Ibe and Modeste would easily get into BSP sides and if they perform then Chelmsford will have too much firepower for Dorchester to handle. The odds are too low for me but I wouldn't put off anyone from backing Chelmsford.
-
Re: France Ligue 2 - 28-31 October
Thanks for the tip, meatman. Followed you with a decent-sized stake, due to your confidence on this one, which has set me up nicely for the weekend's games. Cheers :okFrance Ligue 2 Oct 22th Oct Chateauroux v Monaco Pick :- Chateauroux -0.25 @ 2.0 (8/10) Monaco are a team simply living by their reputation at the moment. The simple fact is that they are a very bad side at the moment and playing poor football. It doesn’t help that they miss about 7-8 players to injury so when they are back to full strength, I’d expect some improvements. But right now they show no confidence at all and few signs that they are going to improve much. Tonight they face a tough task away at Chateauroux who play on artificial turf. It seems to have done them some favours this year with them being strong at home but poor away. It doesn’t surprise me that they’ve been able to make their own plastic pitch a fortress and it’ll be difficult for most teams to come here and get a result. With Chateauroux lining up close to full strength tonight I definitely give them the edge. Right now I rank them as about one class above Monaco so I would say fair odds are about 1.75 on a -0.25 line. Take anything 1.80+ as a value bet. This is my highest staked bet of the season so far and I approach it with high confidence. -
Re: Netherlands»Eredivisie 2011/2012 28-30 oct I imagine a few people will be on NAC tonight, against VVV. But at odds of around 1.5, they are not worth backing IMO. As previously mentioned, VVV achieved a moral-boosting 4-1 victory in their last game against Waalwijk. And that was without their star player Musa, who is back for the game tonight. He is capable of winning a game by himself at this level. I watched NAC in their last home game against Excelsior and they looked very nervous, and generally poor, in the final third. They had at least 10 gilt-edged chances to score but only managed 2. Excelsior really are the whipping boys of the league after losing all their decent players to Feyenoord, so that 2-0 victory for NAC does not bode particularly well. This is a no-bet game for me, but for those wanting to place a bet, I would be inclined to go for VV on the AH.
-
Re: Champions League > Wednesday 19th October
Can anyone translate this? Seriously, no offence but what is the point in allowing posts like this? edit: I just re-read this. What a ******* joke... is this the standard of the forum?! No wonder people are leaving!The Schaktar is no longer the team of last year against the Cypriots have played very poorly built and very few actions Apoel risked very little indeed in the end they also had a great opportunity to win as a team Zenit partita.Lo best of Cypriots Cyprus have lost the game in an incredible way and in 10 to 11 have risked a little bit of the sign pareggiarla.Preso well above 2 to 4 bethome. The over between Olympiakos and Dortmund to play, both teams will play the winner of the last hopes could be part of the race, the goals coming in my opinion. -
Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October
I have to agree with you - I've only been here a short time but I've been very disappointed with the conjecture of many of the members, especially AIDYMAC. How can one have such strong opinions on the outcome of a match, when one does not have a strong knowledge of either team? How can you select Dinamo Zagreb based on having seen them play one match this season? When Mourinho was at Chelsea, I remember countless European matches where we would go 1 up and then shut up shop. The fact Real Madrid won 1-0 does not mean Dinamo Zagreb are in the same (or even similar) league as them. I mean, do you even know any of the Dinamo Zagreb players? Would you bet on the Croatian leagues? Then why bet on Croatian teams in any other situation?Delighted you lost your bets you little piss ant. Your 'know it all' is really off putting in here. Oh i forgot to mention, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Nob Head -
Re: England > Weekend > League 2 > 14-15 October Wimbledon, Macclesfield and Bradford are all teams I may back, but my most confident selection this weekend has to be Torquay at home to Gillingham. Both teams are not in the best of form. Torquay haven't won any of their last 6 games, but if you look at who they've played, they have had some tough games in this run. At home they've onlylost to Crawley, and most recently drew to a Morecambe side who have the best away record in the league. Gillingham have lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 games, albeit 1 loss was in the JPT. A home draw against Port Vale and a loss to Wimbledon aren't terrible results, but the team news is a real factor too. Gillingham are missing something ridiculous like 10 squad players, most of whom are first team players. Kedwell and Oli are missing, making them very light up top. Kuffour and Nouble will therefore probably start, which isn't a bad pairing, but they haven't played much together (Kuffour hasn't played much and Nouble is raw). They're also missing Charlie Lee, captain Fuller, Frampton, Jackman, Payne, Spiller and Birchall (who hasn't played at all this season). Gills do have a big squad, but some of these players are important first-teamers who will be sorely missed. They have a very young midfield without Spiller and Fuller, and 3 of their normal back 4 are out. Torquay are 7/5 with most bookies, which is massive, but I will be taking them on the AH 0 line at 13/16 with 188bet. Thoughts anyone?
-
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 15-16 Oct Placed my first bet for tomorrow as I will be watching Liverpool v Man U at the pub. I would have preferred to take this I/P but fairly pleased with the line as it is.. 1st Red Card SELL @ 78 (£20 per point) Risking £240 (if there's no red), but I feel there's good value here. I don't need to mention anything about the atmosphere around this game.. it's always fiery and cards are common. Suarez, Adam, Carragher, Skrtel, Lucas look potential 'carders' for Liverpool, also perhaps Gerrard will be off the pace, which could cause some mistimed tackles... Utd players who stand out for me: Vidic, Evans (if they play), Rooney, Evra... Andre Marriner isn't one of the top refs for dishing out reds, but as people have mentioned already, he gave out 2 reds when he last reffed this game.
-
Re: France - Ligue 2 - 14-17 October There's a lot of money coming in for Arles in Asia and IMO there is no value left. Shame because I would have backed them if I hadn't have had other funds tied up. Laval, my other fancy for this round, have drifted so far today, and can now be backed in the AH 0 market at 1.88! Like meatman said, these teams are similar quality but Laval's home record has to make these odds very good value. I have nothing to add to the analysis of meatman, but that's my view on the value of 2 of the games ;) Laval AH 0 @ 1.88 (4/10)
-
Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October
Has anyone considered the bookings markets in the "crunch" matches. For example in Ireland V Armenia, there are some interesting prices. Time of First Booking +/- 29 mins Total Ireland Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 2.8 Total Armenia Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 1.78 Think there might be some value in the 2.8 on over 1.5 for Ireland. As Aidymac stated earlier, it is difficult to envisage Armenia not having long periods of pressure in this game as Trap sets up Ireland not to concede. Bar a scenario where Ireland are coasting by half time and the game peeters out, then Ireland will either be defending a result, or frantically chasing to get back into the game. When I think of this game I think of the home game against Macedonia where Ireland were defending a 2-1 half time lead, and Macedonia were bossing possesion in the 2nd half as Ireland simply could not keep the ball. Ireland picked up 3 yellows in that 45 mins. Obviously you can't base bets on a sample size of 1, but it is the game who's pattern I think matches most what can be expected in this game. Of course in general in these crunch games, there is every chance that teams leading will be time wasting and defending as if their lives depended on it as the match progresses. And on the flip side the losing team may become increasing frustrated as the covetted prize of automatic qualification or a play-off spot drifts away. The other games I would consider are France V Bosnia and Slovenia V Serbia. In the Germany v Belgium game, there is a fair chance that Germany will be coasting and Belgium may well accept their faith. It may also be worth considering the "to be booked" markets, perhaps for the goalkeepers from a time wasting point of view. And of course the "sending off" market, in-play, depending on how the matches are progressing. Anyway no real tip at this stage, just interesting to hear any views on this angle. :ok
Thank you to both of you! I read both of these posts with interest and I looked at the spread on sportingindex. I bought at 50 (was expecting 60 or 70!) at £10 per point, thinking that the worst case scenario would be losing £200... only bloody come out with £700 profit! Although I may have been a bit lucky with the Armenia GK red card, but who cares! Thanks again! :clapRep. of Ireland - Armenia The referee for this game is Eduardo Iturralde Gonzalez from Spain. I have checked the recent games he was in charge of and here are his stats: APOEL 2-1 Zenit (7 yellow, 1 red); Socheaux 0-4 Metalist (7 yellow, 1 red); PSV 3-1 Lille (4 yellow, 1 red) and Utrecht 3-3 Napoli (9 yellow) Taking into account how much is at stake for both sides I also think that the cards market is the best option here. Over 65 Booking Points @ 3.80 (2 units) William Hill Red Card @ 4.75 (1 unit) William Hill -
Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Early thoughts on possible value: Ipswich at about 3/1?! Massive value there. They've just been to West Ham and won, they have several Premiership-class players and are hitting some good form. Boro at 1.87 look a bit short, considering they haven't won in 4 games and have only scored 1 goal in the process! Having said that, Millwall have been awful in recent weeks, and I fancy Boro to get their promotion push back on track. I would want odds of 1.95 though, which you probably will only get I/P. Bit of value in Barnsley at 4.6. They're unbeaten in 7 and although they draw a lot of games, I like the way they play and they are definitely capable of winning. Portsmouth should be doing a lot better with the players they have...until their form improves though, I wouldn't even consider them at measly odds of evens! Lastly, I've made a lot of money opposing Brighton in recent weeks, and I see no reason to stop opposing them now. They may have been odds of 1.8 if this game was 3 weeks ago, but 2.12 is still short. Hull are difficult to beat and will be in the play-offs at the end of the season IMO. Their away record is especially good and they rarely concede more than 1. 3.55 is too big. Again, as with my Premier League post, I have not placed any bets and will not do so until later in the week. I just thought I would share my early thoughts, which may change depending on team news, odds changing etc :ok
-
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 15-16 Oct No bets yet, as there's still a week to go, but at first glance here are my thoughts: Newcastle odds look much too big. They have defended very well this season and their strikers are starting to fire. Spurs are playing well too but 3.15 looks big. However much I think Blackburn will go down unless they get rid of Kean, who seems completely inept as a manager, 1.91 is too short for a QPR side with an average, Championship-standard defence. They also look lightweight up top. I'll come back a couple of days before when team news has come out.
-
Re: Italy - Serie B - 8-9 October
1 word: Zeman ;)guys really what's wrong with pescara they play lots of game over 2.5. over 2.5 for pescara - citadella match is 1.5:eek what's wrong. it's italy b league such an underish league -
Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 30 Sep- 3 Oct Benny, congrats on another weekend of excellent tips, and thank you for sharing them! May your run long continue :hope
Premier League Value - Defying The Odds
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Premier League Value - Defying The Odds
1-0 - half returned, half won. £1.42 win overall. Bank updated after Arsenal game.