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SportsInvestment

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    Martingale - successfully

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Martingale - successfully MLB SF Giants - LA Dodgers over 5.5 - 2.11 stake: 4000EUR hey users maybe this will be my last bet here...but im not sure...well..i still have my blog and already another project about my martingale system in my mind and some ideas...so i will see what is my best move...but maye i will continue this blog too but continue 2 blogs and work on my investments and my wife :loon:rollin is not easy ...that is what i realized....so i will see wich is my best way see you soon..i hope ;)

    Martingale - successfully

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Martingale - successfully Starting bank: 50,000.00EUR Current bank: 58,760.00EUR Total staked: 17.500,00 Returned: 26,260.00EUR Number of bets: 22 (4 live bets) Winning bets: 13 Losing bets: 9 Strike rate: 59% Yield: 50.06% Profit (or Loss): 8,760.00EUR cheers;)

    Martingale - successfully

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Martingale - successfully

    I can't hold back any longer and I feel it is my civic duty to post. I see a lot of potential hurt being caused here. Let's start at first principles: Expected return ($) = bet size ($) x mathematical edge The amount you win in the long term is based on your bet size and your edge. Your bet size is always a positive amount, so whether you win or lose in the long term comes down to whether or not you are betting when you have a mathematical advantage. If you don't have a mathematical advantage, then no staking system in the world will save you and you are far better off not betting at all. If you do have a mathematical advantage, then martingaling will dramatically increase your volatility and chance of going bankrupt. All that martingaling does is hide your expected win/loss amounts behind a wall of a much higher strike rate. It is possible that someone can ride the thin edge of probability for years and not get a losing streak, but the odds are on the same level as jumping off a skyscraper and walking away with minor injuries. There is a psychological bias towards thinking that luck is actually skill. Just because it has worked in the past does not mean in any way that it is a good method; unless you can conclusively prove that you have a positive expectancy you will fail, it will hurt a hell of a lot, and it will happen with a truly stunning speed. All readers are advised that, if a betting method operates on a system where you increase stakes after a loser, just walk away and don't give it a second thought. This is extremely valuable advice and one I had to learn personally. I now return you to your scheduled staking madness.
    indeed ...interesting post. well i have to say for 99,9 % martingaling is not the right system for a sports bettor, its true. And i only do the martingale system because i can beat the market...I would beat the market without martingale too. and thats an important point for me cause i can beat the market with a "normal" staking plan too I can do the martingale too. if you can not beat the market NEVER start with martingale. It will make you broke yes

    Martingale - successfully

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Martingale - successfully

    Very interesting thread. I wish you all the best and I root for you! I know there are many haters just lurking and waiting for you to go wrong but I really believe you and hope you continue to do well!
    thanks Zibbit

    Martingale - successfully

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Martingale - successfully Hey livebird and Vadah;) yes i know all that livebird...and i have to say i just said 50,000 for the forum....in real i have a bigger BR and use biggger stakes....so far a mod didnt reply to my post about the blog link so i am posting it here now and when its not allowed a mod should write to me i use there 1000EUR stakes. livebird...however..if you believe me or not...so far in 5 years..i never had a situation where i lost more than 5 bets in a row...and that is already special SO MY POINT HERE IS TO SAY !!! martingale in general is only profitable for bettors who would be in green number even without martingale !! really..otherwise it could be very very dangerous... and vadah....many dont believe me about this... but most of my bets just came from a good feeling when i see the 2 teams...believe it or not...i cant believe sometimes too when all people say its not possible...but really...i look at the teams a time...and then i already have a feeling...its just my talent i would say...works already for 5 years. ...cheers...all. i will answer every question if you have one edit : what i have to add...i always look for value odds...even i have a good feeling...but the odds seems not like value to me then i will not play them...in long term it would be not good.

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