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Diddy147

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Posts posted by Diddy147

    World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

    in Snooker Predictions

    Posted

    Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May As I hinted at earlier in the thread I try to find my value "In Play" generally on Betfair so that I can cash out if things are looking shaky (Hopefully with a profit). Take The Dott vrs Murphy match Dott was 12.2 when 6-2 down going into the morning session. 4 frames is nothing in a 25 frame match (as has already been proved) so 12.2 was generous as long as you believed Dott would win a few frames in the morning. As it turned out he went on a nice little steam and he was favourite at one point (Frame 21 when Murphy needed snooker looking like 11-10 to dott). So You could cash out there or let it ride for a bit. As it happened I let it ride and Dott lost that frame to trail 11-10.....I then cashed out as I said I would @ 3.4 So my £50 in the morning returned me £172.99 (£122.99 profit). As stated I "could" have cashed out slightly earlier and my profit would have been £280+...Im not complaining though. The important thing is there was value in that Dott has/had fighting qualities. Same thing round before I had £20 on Ebdon when he was 6-3 down going into morning session.....Once again the odds on ebdon were "value" @ 13.5 once again I cashed out at 7-7 when the game was pulled off - returned £55 (£35 profit)....crap game but Ebdon never gives up and was never going to capitulate without a fight and also it was not as if Dott were potting them off the lampshades.... That brings us to now. I am treading carefully now as I have not been around these "new" players as much....I at one time could tell you who beat who when where what season they were enjoying ect ect all from the top of my head...but with all these tournies these days my knowledge is not as great. I do know a good bit about snooker though but I still think all value is "in play". I keep seeing ronnie play and although a "genius" I just don't believe he has the game at the moment to take this down. His odds are a joke TBH. His long pot success yesterday was

    World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

    in Snooker Predictions

    Posted

    Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May I agree that Ding is too short on his odds surprised to see you think that there is value in -4.5 frames at those prices. But I do agree that Carter has every chance against o'sullivan. I am not convinced by O'Sullivan just yet. Campbell did not punish his mistakes hard enough in the 1st round and the score line was flattering. Carter on his day has the game to upset Ronnie. I just want to see how Ronnie copes with someone who can play a decent safety game and score hard when in the balls. This could be the test he needs to see if he is capable of lifting this trophy after a 12 month break. That may sound as if I am negative about O'Sullivan and truth be told im not. I am just not convinced YET. If he comes through a tough match then IMHO he is going to be hard to beat and his pre tournament price will then be justified. @ Grumpy ...dont be so grumpy man lol. Dott is a great player....he may not play to the crowd nor be flash and pot balls of the lampshades but do not make the mistake that he is not a fantastically gifted all round player with a ton of "balls". He has won the biggest tournament of them all which nobody can take away. He uses what he has better than players with arguably more talent do ....I hope you get what I am trying to say. One last point - What we are all about here is looking for value...don't confuse that with rooting for your favourite player...the two are not mutually exclusive.

    World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

    in Snooker Predictions

    Posted

    Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Lol people think pot balls equals champion. Nothing could be further. If this mornings session was too a finish then Dott would have walked it. As it is it is poised nicely at 8-8 and my £10@Just a tad over 11/1 (12.2)on the betfair exchange this morning looks pretty attractive to me at this point. I will watch the 1st frame tonight and then decide weather to cash out my profit or if Dott wins 1st frame it will be left to ride until I see any evidence of the potting machine murphy getting any kind of fluency into his game. Dott is so underrated it is untrue but there you go people are entitled to opinions. For those interested Dott is now sitting @ 2.44 to lay or 2.38 to back (dont like those backing odds tbh). Murphy is 1.7 back and 1.72 to lay. I love snooker and have grown up around the likes of Dott, Mcmanus, Higgins who all live and practice within 5 miles of me and I have watched them all practice and play regular. There is nobody more committed than Dott to be honest. A very talented player...albeit not as good as top 5 or so. It would not shock me in any way to see Dott beat Murphy and we know he has the game to upset/beat anybody in the game. Write off his chances at your wallets peril.

    The Road to Ruin...

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: The Road to Ruin... I was being over tight I think now on reflection. Just out of interest here are the poker stove results 1st we have with the flop as played - as you can see you will be approx 80/20 in your favour on that board. Preflop it's about 75/25 if you assign villain any pair any broadway and any Ax suited. Pretty standard range for a micro tournament player. So on that flop you loose against their range 1 in 5. Pre flop you loose 1 in 4 against the range. Get yourself pokerstove it's free. You can play around with scenario's in your spare time and it will help you understand the way to push/fold in later stages of tournament play and also sng's. Also google and download PushBot Rev 4.2 Both these are invaluable "tools" for anyone serious about taking up tournament poker. ext results appended to pokerstove.txt 234,630 games 0.005 secs 46,926,000 games/sec Board: 2d 3d 4d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.298% 18.32% 00.98% 42973 2306.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o } Hand 1: 80.702% 79.72% 00.98% 187044 2306.50 { KcKd } --- 426,363,696 games 0.001 secs 426,363,696,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 23.195% 22.75% 00.44% 97006318 1889157.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o } Hand 1: 76.805% 76.36% 00.44% 325579064 1889157.00 { KcKd } ---

    The Road to Ruin...

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: The Road to Ruin...

    KK on a 234 diamond board with the king of diamonds is an absolute monster. I fist pump get it in on the flop or turn. UL on river, move on to the next one.
    Fair play you have your methods and I had mine. I used to do ok but now I wouldn't know as much as you do mate. I see he has 22BB so based on that you are correct but if he were to have 30+ then I would still urge caution tbh. Remember also this guy is not putting in any "real" volume. He seems on the face of it to be studying the game which is not a bad thing until you have the numbers down and your shove/fold ranges are in place and you know generally what you are doing THEN you can multi table with ease rather than trying to "play poker"....just my opinion though.

    The Road to Ruin...

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: The Road to Ruin...

    On reflection I could have played this alot better...Played really badly yesterday should have quit after a couple of games
    I have been out of the poker scene for a while now but my take on that hand although similar would be - Pre flop raise 2.5x to max 3x so either 125-150 chips. See how flop comes then faced with flop bet I would either 3x their flop Cbet OR just float (call) their cbet (I would only float the cbet to a certain type of player as although you have KK with a redraw to K flush you are up against 22,33,44, AdXd (so already drawing dead almost) even 55 presents a problem on that flop (open ended draw) so I would be very wary of the float/call.) The best play would be to 3x his flop Cbet and see where you are at after. If he calls then re-evaluate on the turn - If he leads out then again you have a decision - If he has called a 3x re-raise on the flop then he may be a calling station...it's early in the tournament and 1 hand is not going win the whole thing so if he is a station then you may be better slowing down on the turn and river ie-check,check. Keep the pots small in early tournament play - Big pots for big hands KK is not a BIG hand (IMHO) its a high pair in a game that involves 5 cards. It's a decent hand but not a "monster". Anyway that's how I used to approach tournament play. I did bink a few in my time. Maybe the "thinking" is different these days I really wouldn't know. As a positive I like the fact you are starting with a 1k bankroll and seem to be sticking with the $5-$6 buyin range. Good bankroll management is the key to success in online poker. Fire in a few 180 man $4.40's on Stars while you play the other tournaments for a couple of reasons - 1 end game play practice and 2 prevent boardom. Good luck.
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