ajaxAgain
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Posts posted by ajaxAgain
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Moggis - what markets are we talking about here, outright win, top 4/6, promotion, relegation,... combinations of these?
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Still none the wiser.
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) It's the bit about not believing the bet had the slightest chance winning and that not being the reason for the bet that got me intrigued. If you don't expect it to win, what's the point? Other than to somehow gain a postion in the market which somehow you can later exploit. Me = confused!
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Re: Poker question As stated above don't just jump to playing 3 or 4 tables simultaneously or your game will suffer, start with 2. Personally I like to stagger my sit & go tables so that they're not all at the same level. Ie: start 1, get a feel for the players, once it reaches level 2 or 3 start another. Don't let this distract you tho, you should be constantly watching even if you're not in a hand so you cam figure out players styles and start to put them on a range.
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well being from a maths background I must say I'm firmly on the value side of this argument until proven otherwise, but I also like to think I have an open mind. I also quite like guessing games so I'm annoyingly intrigued. IF you have indeed found a way to exploit a flaw in the bookies odds that shatters the only truth we know, then I can't wait for you to enlighten us with it, now or at the end of the season.
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Re: Dumb Tournament Plays I think that's where my confusion is: were you playing this as a bluff? (in which case you dont want the blinds getting in a cheap call) or as a semi-bluff for value? (in which case as you said you got your answer from his 5bet) Just intrigued. I've been away from poker for 12months or so and currently stuck playing low stacks. Just trying to get my poker brain firing again before I step back up a level from the mind numbing abc I'm playing now.
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Re: Dumb Tournament Plays I bow to your knowledge on the min raise late on - though I'm interested in the reasoning for it? Out of interest what stakes was this at. I'm back playing low/micro to build my bankroll having had to cash out last year. At that level even at a full ring ft most players would flat call or shove to a min raise. For that reason I only really use it with prem hands to build the pot in the hope of getting more on the flop or to induce a shove.
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Re: Dumb Tournament Plays That does make horrible reading. Never been a fan of a min raise especially from EP, a bigger raise shows you exactly where you are and makes the fold to the call-raise easier without getting drawn into a more costly 3bet situation.
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Re: Tournament Strategy - Game Selection Musy say I've never considered registering late, far too much value from the fish and no shows. I prefer the room to just play premium hands early, catching the fish who are playing a wide range. I then hopefully have enough of a stack to actually play some poker against the better players later on. Registering late surely turns it in to a bit of a shoot out where you cant make your edge as a better player count.
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Re: Poker question Do you multi-table? If your on playing a single table and cant resist the temptation to 'get involved' try playing another table, that way playable hands come up more regularly. If its just the temptation to re-raise a suspected bluff then it all depends, what stakes, position, reads on players, etc. If you're playing low stakes any 'moves' even from position won't be given credit so stick to ABC poker
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Re: Oddsmaker required Don't get me wrong I wasn't suggesting that there aren't some very good models with a proven record of profit. For me personally I need the comfort, on top of what my stats suggest, of why there's a profit and to active design it into my strategy almost on a bet by bet basis. Key to that is understanding how the bookies operate, which is all i believe the OP is suggesting. It can only be a good thing to occasionally look at the book from the opposite side, challenge our beliefs and find potential new ways to squeeze an edge.
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Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Completely agree, regardless of how good a model or your analysis is you have to assume the bookies with their infinite resources is better. Therefore your own data can only be trusted to highlight bets that warant further investigation, not guarenteed value. Only once you've analysed why your odds differ can you satisfy yourself that there is a true edge that can be exploited for profit.
How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) just interested if you feel there are traits in any markets in particular that would lend themselves to antepost accas or whether you pick and choose depending on the season. I take your point re hijacking the thread, sry all - once my brain starts ticking its hard to turn off and I dont have any poker to distract me at the moment!