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tofutez

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    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Looks like it might be just me and you on this one Leeds Legend, is a shame as I really think there is money to be made on this card. Burns was above evens for a KO and now Ladbrokes have suspended betting on that market after the weigh in (Cook had two attempts).

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread If they still ain't letting me post links up; Tips: Numerous (see below) TV: Skysports One from 9.PM Stakes: British/Commonwealth Light Heavy (Bellew/McCenzie and WBO Super Feather (Burns/Cook). A big card and a big opportunity to make up for last weeks loss (all be it a small one). It is unusal for a tipster to predict every match up on a card but that is exactly what I'm attempting here. I'm throwing in some different types of bets that some people maybe unaware of but don't let that fact put you of, this card is well suited to multiple betting opportunites. Let's start with Gavin vs Woodhouse; This one is of particular interest to me, not because they both hail from my neck of the woods but because this has the look of a fun fight, one that has been brewing for a while now. Woodhouse has dropped two decisions in his shortish career thus far, he is quite hard to hit flush with any power shot, to the head or body. He covers up well and has the Abraham/Winky Wright abilty to tuck his elbows right down by his hips, meaning it would take an advanced level fighter to navigate past this above average defence. Unfortunately for the ex Blues Midfielder, the guy in the opposite corner is well on the way (in my humble opinion) to becoming an A+ fighter. Gavin is freakishly talented, he possess; superb angles, excellent footwork, varied punches and perhaps the most relevant attribute in this fight, very good body work. If Gavin turns up here, I see his speed and combination punching gradually overcoming Woodhouse and his defensive tactics. My base bet for this fight would be to cover rounds 4-6 and 7-9 (for Gavin), a technical stoppage is likely here, I would be impressed if Gavin knocks out Woodhouse however. Up next (I presume) is the rematch between Bellew and McKenzie, these two met back in November if I recall correctly. Anyone who can remember will know Bellew was dropped in the first and second rounds of this fight before going on to stop McKenzie in the 8th, people with an even better memory willl know that Bellew was dropped two times previous to this against bog standard oppostion, Ajisafe and the unkown Andrejevs. Bellew for me has a lot of things to work on, the most noticeable one being core strength, alot of people question a fighters chin when he is put down but alot of the time it has alot to do with weight and conditioning, see Khan vs Prescott and then Khan vs Maidana to get what I'm saying here. Bellew is not a big light heavy, compared to say a Pascal or Diaconu but then again you might look at his decent 66% knockout ratio and think otherwise. But anyway, I think Bellew takes this by knockout and his price is floating above odds on for this to happen which I think is quite generous myself. The main factor in this fight is McKenzie's stamina, more specifically how bad it is. I would go as far to say if Bellew had a more rounded attack he would get his opponent out there within six rounds but I do worry for the 'Bomber' long term as he lacks the skills of a potential world class fighter that your going to need in the coming years in the Light Heavy division, considering how many quality fighters will be fighting at 175lbs (Dawson, Cloud, Clev and all the guys from the Super Six, maybe Pavlik). Now for the original main event, Burns vs Cook. Let me start by saying this is farcial match up, even by Warren/WBO standards. Cook has had one fight in the last two years and from what I read in a well known British Boxing Magazine he is basically saving up for a pub in Tenerife. This leads me to boldy suggest that Cook will lose fight, and probably by KO. I have to put the word probably in there because Burns is not exactly a big hitter even though he is big for a Super Feather. I'm not gonna waste much time here, Burns will get him out of there with his jab and body punches, of which he is quite adept at. You can actually get above evens with most bookmakers for a Burns knockout. Cook is on the beach. Finally, the rather fascinating Lightweight clash between two borderline world level fighters. Kevin Mitchell cannot really afford to lose this one, Warren looks as if he is losing patience with the eastender for a whole number of reasons, your talking about a guy here who blew a six figure sum on Booze after his early round stoppage to Michael Katisdis. So we have to consider whether Mitchell is in the right place for what will be a big challenge. You also have think whether throwing Mitchell back into the spotlight without a warm up is a wise call. What strikes me is that the guy who is know labelled as the Boxer (Mitchell) has a comfortbaly higher knockout percentage than the guy who is known as the slugger (Murray). Mitchell is a talented guy, who has shown he can move laterally, fight on the backfoot and go to war in various fights, Murray I think it's fair to say divides opinion across the Boxing fraternity. In the same way Carl Froch did when he jumped onto the world scene, there are a few parrallels between the two. They look awkard and unbalanced at times but they can box very well when they choose too. My base bet here is for the fight to go over 9.5 rounds, mainly because I rate both fighters in the defensive department, I believe Murray has the slightly better offense, he has a more consistent jab than Mitchell but he does lack the movement and all round ring intelligence that Mitchell has in his locker. If your looking for a winner here, I will stick my neck out and say Murray on points. This is one of the alternative bets that you should consider, I'm throwing in some multiples here because betting on just one or two bouts in Boxing is not always worth it considering how the bookies price the fights up; Base Bets Gavin 4pts rounds 4-6 Gavin 4pts 7-9, both 5/1 with bet365 Bellew by knockout 7pts, 3/5with bet365 Burns by knockout 6pts, 5/4 with bet365 Over 9.5 rounds (Murray/Mitchell) 5pts, 4/5 with bet365 Now if your looking at a standard four-fold here, expect a 30/1 shot at all these coming off. If you are looking at a more conservative approach, you might want to consider a yankee. This involves 11 bets with four selections, at least two must be correct to gain some money back. If you are a brave man and fancy a fiver on the above, you would bet 55 of your British pounds and you could potentially win 700 pound plus. If say the most unlikely bet does not come off, in this case Gavin, you would still profit 30 pounds. Now obviously you need four bets here so you have to get rid of one of the Gavin base bets, but because I am a gambling addict I'm putting this on the alternative bet; Gavin 4pts rounds4-6, 5/1 bet365 Murray on points 5pts. 12/5 bet365 Bellew by KO 7Pps, 3/5 bet365 I'm looking at a patent here, which is seven bets with 3 selections, you need just one for a return. Using the five pound example, if all three come of you will net a tidy 360 pound profit. Whatever your going on enjoy the fights, as it's rare that such a card is put together and stays together (fingers crossed). @tofutez

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Here's the link to the blog, not sure if they are letting me do this yet; http://tofutez.blogspot.com/. Anyway; Tip: Rios to beat Antillon on points 9/4 (bwin) TV: N/A Stakes: WBA World Lightweight Title We might as well start with the guy who I'm guessing people haven't heard of (although this could be true for both fighters in the UK). Urban Antillon has been there with two 'name fighters', Humberto Soto and Miguel Acosta (Rios has also fought Acosta, W TKO 10). In both fights he lost, by technical stoppage against Acosta and by a close points decision with Soto, although to be fair to Antillon the point deducted from him effectivley cost him a majortiy draw verdict as two judges had it 113-114. During some periods of his career, Antillon has vowed to change his trademark Mexican come forward style, he has told us he wanted to work more with the jab against Soto and that didn't really happen. He strikes me as a guy (you have to consider I have seen him fight three times) who reverts back to type, a la Ricky Hatton. Granted this can be a very effective style but it's no concidence that as soon as the brawlers step up to the B level or the A level fighter, they can get found out. Soto was a bit to accurate and skilled for him and just about deserved it in the end. Now some of you may wonder why I am backing a guy with a eight fight KO streak to win on points, so here is why; Antillon's knockout loss was effectivley a one punch knockout, an uppercut right to the cranium (which he is vunerable to). In my opinion I think he will survive against guys who have accumaltive power, like Rios. Checkout this streak Rios has hit since he drew with Perez, 6 of the 8 have been TKO's not KO's, he is a strong, durable type who likes to fight so there is no question he is capable of stopping Antillon but I'm prediciting the streak will end and I think 9/4 is quite a reasonable price here. I wouldn't advise anyone to bet to much on fighters they have not watched to much of, and I certainly wouldn't advise anyone to follow advice from someone who also hasan't watched so much of either fighter, so this is a limit stakes bet for me, half of what I would usually bet.

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread You serious about Cook's chances mate? BTW he lost to Roman Martinez (Super Feather) not Sergio (middle). From what I read in Boxing News/Monthly (can't remember which one) Cook just wants another pay day for a pub in Tenerife! I think he has had one fight in two years as well, this is a preety farcial match up really, typical Warren.

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'm copying over my blog post till I get permission. Tip: Klitschko to win 8/13 (BetFred) TV: SkySports Box Office est 10.15 PM Stakes: WBA,IBF,WBO Heavyweight Championships. Although I haven't been involved in the sport for as long as some, I can't help but spot the same old patterns and cliches that pop up in the sport of Boxing. In the build up to a big fight, we continually hear how confident fighter 'A' looks, or how we can something in someones eyes during press conferences. Journalists, during ultra hype mode, literaly try and convince us and themselves that one fighter actually has more than a chance in a particular match up, when in reality the classic indicators of form, styles and experience tell us otherwise. Two recent examples of this; Miguel Cotto vs Yuri Foreman and David Haye vs Audley Harrison shown that even the most articulate and knowledgable Boxing fans get caught up in the build up to a fight. Foreman in Max Kellermans words was a 'curosity', someone that had a great story, punters wanted him to win. In the case of Haye/Harrison, plenty of broadcasters were left with egg on their face as they attemtped to sell the fight to the casual viewer. This is another example of people betting with their heart rather than their head, in some cases it's just plain old patriotic gambling, the type Bookies really like. I would rather put to one side these distractions and focus on the match up itself, let's start with the respective approach of each fighter and how it will effect this fight. Klitschko in my opinion, is the best jabber in the sport (relevant as Ruiz landed far to many jabs on Haye) has one of the most effective defenses, perhaps has the best heavyweight trainer ever in Manny Steward who has masterminded many successful gameplans in the division, a brutal straight right hand, an excellent understanding of range and underated speed, ask Eddie Chambers. His detractors and previous opponents all say the same thing; get inside, hurt him, go to the body and so on. Not only do they fail to replicate these words into actions, they fail to even attempt to implement this tactics, usually because they freeze or have poor conditioning in comparision to Wladimir, this won't happen with Haye. But what will is the sudden reliastion of Haye's fans that the Londoner does not have the tools to beat Klitschko, he is not an inside fighter. He also relies on range, timing and mistakes from his opponent, take a look at the Maccarinelli bout. Haye obviously has speed and power, but will the most conservative boxer on the planet let him use these attributes? I think not. The fight will be a potshotting chess match, with a knockdown very likely and knockout likely. If you are wondering why I have gone for Klitschko to win only, it's because you will never get odds of above 1/2 on in a Klitschko fight, never. Take these odds, it's a safe bet and remember Klitschko can beat Haye in more ways than Haye can beat Klitschko.

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Here we go lads; Tip: Sturm to win by Decision 1.72 (bet365). TV: Skysports Two from 8.30 PM, following Brook vs N'Dou. Stakes: WBA 'Super' World Middleweight Championship. Firstly, a quick background on the two fighters before we get to a prediction. Sturm, despite holding a rather farcical version of a world title is indeed a world level fighter. He is making the ninth defense of his title, having defended it against a series of C- minus fighters and a couple of decent fighters in Ronald Hearns and fellow German Sylvester. Macklin is a two time European Champ, probably most well known for being knocked out by Jamie Moore in a domestic classic. At Middleweight, he looks to have shown some stamina/physical problems, looking a bit soft at the weight in my view. In this fight I am taking Sturm, and in impressive fashion. I believe he will deconstruct Macklin, I think there is even a possibility he will stop him late but even if you don't share this view, we know that Sturm can win rounds with his jab as well as anyone in the sport. Consider these factors also when highlighting where the fight takes place also (Germany), although in fairness the aforementioned Sylvester just lost his IBF version of the world title to Daniel Geale not so long ago in his hometown. In terms of the technical match up, I feel Sturm's body work (his team believe Macklin is vulnerable to the body) will prevent any serious scares late on, with a stoppage for Sturm more likely. Macklin is a busy Boxer-Puncher type, with plenty of feints and upper body movement, but I think his rather standard defense will make it easy for Sturm to use his low but accurate punch output to wear down Macklin. Sturm will win but I would advise against a KO bet considering the German only has 15 knockouts to his name.

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